Posted by vespa > 2 weeks ago | Report Abuse

Rohank. NPV as you know is a discounting mechanism. It discounts free cashflow from the future to present. Every year’s projected free cashflow is discounted to the present. So from my basic calc say discount rate 14 or 15% ( this can be determined with assumptions) you discount each year to the present. You could take 5 yrs or 10 yrs to discount plus terminal rate. Generally 10 yrs plus terminal rate. Hope this helps. Here in Malaysia one cannot predict 3 yrs in to the future so it becomes quite academic . This works well with large companies with steady cashflow and durable with few surprises.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

there is no terminal rate for BA as all its contracts expire on a certain date.
also if discounted cashflow the value should only increase over time.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I am feeling very jittery on BA. Just worried if the so called expert analyst knows whats they are doing. the numbers doesnt add up.

Posted by nikicheong > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

The Armada Sterling V FPSO, operating at ONGC’s Cluster 2 project in Block KG-DWN-98/2 in India, achieved first oil on January 7, 2024. The FPSO, owned by a joint venture of Shapoorji Pallonji Energy (70%) and Malaysia’s Bumi Armada (30%), is awaiting a final acceptance test to start receiving the full charter rate from ONGC. However, Bumi Armada disclosed that certain payments have been withheld by ONGC during the start-up phase, pending discussions on additional outstanding claims. Market sources indicate that the FPSO owners are currently receiving lower revenues compared to the full charter rate due to these unresolved issues.

The main outstanding issue appears to be the introduction of gas into the FPSO, which, once resolved, will trigger the start of the full dayrate. Additionally, payment issues have persisted from the previous year when the FPSO was ready to receive hydrocarbons, but ONGC could not deliver production due to damaged subsea infrastructure at Cluster 2. Bumi Armada and ONGC continue discussions to resolve the payment issues and move forward with full operations.

The Armada Sterling V is India’s largest floater, with an oil processing capacity of 50,000 barrels per day, a gas capacity of 3 million cubic meters per day, and a crude storage capacity of 700,000 barrels. The FPSO, converted from the tanker Ariake by Seatrium in Singapore, is designed to withstand severe cyclonic conditions.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/payment-dispute-lingers-for-largest-fpso-operating-in-india/2-1-1660662

Posted by vespa > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Rohank it would help if you get up to speed with Finance 101.

Posted by marlboroman2 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I am just a very small RM 10k stakeholder and trying to piece together what i know of BAB's at the moment, is the below correct? (feel free to point out any mistake made hereinafter, thanks)

1. Sterling V, awaiting 72 hour testing in June 2024 for final acceptance. Thereafter, full charter rate starts in 3rd Qtr (vs current standby rate). Delay is due to piping issue on seabed (McDermott is fixing it?) and coz of the inclusion of gas hence some of last year's o/s payment is in the mix.

2. ⁠TGT, finishing firm period in Nov 2024, client likely to extend lease to 2026 to drill more wells in TGT field, talks ongoing and client is negotiating in tandem with PSC extension.

3. Olombendo, successfully negotiated higher O&M rates last year arising from escalating operating cost.

4. ⁠Kraken, planning is underway ahead of planned return to drilling during 2025, with joint venture approval granted to order select long lead equipment required to facilitate the two-well sidetrack programme (per Enquest).

5. First foray into upsteam exploration & production in Akia block North Kalimantan. A 51:49 JV with Pexco having already secured the contract with Indonesian Authorities, however, still in seismic stage and therefore premature to factor anything in.

6. Leading contender for USD 1 billion EPCC contract FPSO Cameia.

7. ⁠Potential USD 2 bil projects to bid between 2024-2026 for SC vessels, in particular in tge Kazakhstan region (the CEO is flying there this month end?)

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

FPSO Cameia is done by the Saipem with Chinese. Write it off.
Kazakhstan is not a very good prospect. I suggest you check Roach Energy, now at all time low. They operate in Kazakhstan.

Posted by marlboroman2 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Noted with many thanks @ Robert

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

You are welcome. Take it from a guy who spent 3 years in Kazakhstan, both offshore and onshore. All the projects I saw were failing as the locals were simply too corrupt even for Italians to handle them. And it takes a lot to outdo Italians in corruption.
They had good coffee though, I admit.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

any news will do, just wait

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Yes, even small project in between. There is Turkmenistan, Russia and Azerbaijan by the Caspian Sea. They all could be in need of offshore pipeline work.

Posted by bullrun168 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Walaoeh, what happend ?
Super damn hot man Armada today !
Now Armada was traded at @0.57 (+0.015) (+2.7 %)

Heng ah, Ong ah, Huat ah !

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Tan KW
Publish date: Wed, 19 Jun 2024, 04:14 PM
The daily chart of Bumi Armada (ARMADA, 5210, Main Board Energy) closed at RM0.565 on June 18, up 1.0 sen or 1.80% on a daily basis, sideways between the support level and the rising trend line. Its daily relative strength index (RSI) indicator began to rise and is at 48.98. Its share price may break through and climb to the resistance level between RM0.615-0.63 in the short term. Its support level is at RM0.55-0.56.
Huat ah, everyone.

Posted by marlboroman2 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

huat ah, heng ah, ong lai liao la .... maybe this is the real catalyst needed to push BA's price up to the next level where all else seems to fail.

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Now, this is a good point. Nicky talking about new projects or extensions, but the real thing may be crossing the line sideways with resistance trend. Oh my.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

low volume

Posted by TimCoke > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

good sign

Posted by nikicheong > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Even Genting has a lucrative FLNG contract. https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3457525

Quite shameful I must say.

Posted by jacintateh > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Someone sold big time before closing, causing price to fall back to 0.555. these people just won't let it go back up again.

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Or maybe someone lost patience with the management and decided NOT to hold it any more.
Why would he purposely hurt himself by keeping the stock down ?
To buy more in the future would be my guess.

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

About this Genting / Wison projet. I know the company Wison. My former colleague who interviewed me for a job few years ago went there, and it was a posting to an unknown entity. Chinese job. Bumi Armada was a big player.
Now Wison gets contract and Bumi Armada has NOTHING anounces partnerships for green initiatives without any specific project.

Posted by warris > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

early stage i heard this job genting & armada...maybe same case with cameia...pricing issue..thats way armada call off.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

For UOB Kay Hian, Yinson’s new projects are coming into FY2025 earnings horizon, including two Brazil floating production storage and offloading vessels and the Matarani Solar project at its non-oil-and-gas segment.

However, “accounting distortion is growing alongside its leverage, and both may confuse investors and prolong the stock’s hefty trading discount,” the research house said, flagging “messy and confusing” finance lease disclosure to its true financial and leverage ratios.

Yinson’s measure of leverage in terms of net debt to cash flow was four times, though the ratio would rise to seven times based on the International Financial Reporting Standards disclosure, UOB Kay Hian noted. “For this to work, in our view, Yinson must adopt directional reporting,” the house said.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I have left BA. sold all my holdings as I heard some top shareholders collectively holding more than 50M shares have exited and are still selling. They have lost hope in BA.

I also checked with some Finance Experts and they also confirmed that the analyst valuation on DCF is wrong and its more like a Future Cash Value of BA and not NPV of BA.

those holding on pls do ur own homework on the valuation which the analyst have presented... if its NPV based on DCF the value MUST go up every Q or else new problems have croped up every Q and have kept the value down.

Good luck to all and make your profits whilst can.

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Rohank, good luck to you. Tell us where you moved.
One of the last longs to leave .... may be sign of a bottom.
They call it: CAPITULATION.

Posted by TimCoke > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Rohan, 560 is still a good deal, have a second look, do not miss it

Posted by nikicheong > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Rohan understand it but your concerns about the calculations are misguided. In the absence of new contracts and all else being equal (i.e. fx rates etc), then as the company runs down its charters, the NPV will reduce every sequential quarter.

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I think there must be a reason while BAB have NOT secured a single contract in 8 years. I suspect that the Greedy Gary just does not want the risk and hassle of new project. Finds an excuse to reject it, or does not even put a real try to convince the client.
It is much easier to make vague plans of becoming green leader, or progressive by developing partnership with competitor or alternative service provider, rather than a partnership with a client. And that works for a while, until the old money runs out.

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

Amazing action with BAB. Every minute there is a small sale. It is relentless. Someone decided to exit for sure, and we should let him do it. Just an example that goes on without any stopping.
114 09:57:20 am 0.555 0 2,300 1,192,400
113 09:56:30 am 0.555 0 2,300 1,190,100
112 09:55:42 am 0.555 0 2,200 1,187,800
111 09:54:46 am 0.555 0 2,000 1,185,600
110 09:53:12 am 0.555 0 4,000 1,183,600
109 09:53:06 am 0.555 0 2,000 1,179,600

Posted by Genovese > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I sold 50% of my holding in BAB. The remaining 50% is my long term bet on Armada Akia block venture. This could be a jackpot.

Posted by leeabraham > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

interestingly, they was invisible hands trying to push it up back again to 0.56 at the 11th hour before closing but failed miserably. week on week unchanged, what is in store next week, down and break below 0.555?

Posted by Robert Waters > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

I bought some at 0.555, but not to push the market up. I just want to sell it and anounce here like all do that I sold off some of my position just as did all my fellow longs. Hopefully at miniscule profit.

The funny thing is I could NOT get a fill all day, then I finally bought it at 16:50 hrs in the after market / closing time. There was a huge selling wave at market. Also enormous wave of buy orders ... for the order book window dressing ?. I think it was meant to intimidate sellers (buys went from 4 to 8 mln).

Posted by rohank71 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

#niki.. i agree with U on the NPV of each FPSO goes down as it means the value has translated to cash or lower debt and increasing net BA values. but in this case BA value remain the same and in some instances lower (only possible if BA pays DV or cash losses somewhere else). I am not looking at FPSO NPV but the sum of parts... net of debt... and there is no terminal value for BA as its charters all has an expiry date after extension.

Posted by rohank71 > 1 week ago | Report Abuse

no point looking at individual FPSO value as we buy BA ie sum of parts.

Posted by Robert Waters > 6 days ago | Report Abuse

Todays price drop is an indication that perhaps Greedy Gary turned down contracts in the Caspian Sea for pipeline construction vessels (too much hard work) and decided to follow inclusive or green targets in the future by more woke declarations.

Posted by 696988 > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

Gary not greedy enough. He should boost the share price up since got 40m of share. hahaha

Posted by bullrun168 > 5 days ago | Report Abuse

Walaoeh, oil price spike up like mad !
Brent closed at=> $86.01 +0.77 +0.90 %
Heng ah, Ong ah, Huat ah !

Posted by nikicheong > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

There are two upcoming #FPSO opportunities in Malaysia:

1. ConocoPhillips-operated Salam-Patawali oil development offshore Sarawak: This project requires a new FPSO with a production capacity of 30,000 to 55,000 barrels of oil per day and storage for up to 600,000 barrels of oil.

2. PTTEP-led replacement project on the Kikeh oilfield offshore Sabah: This project needs a replacement FPSO for the existing Kikeh field.

Invitations to bid for these projects are expected to be issued soon. This is a good opportunity for suppliers of leased FPSOs.

Here are some additional details that might find helpful:

• Malaysian FPSO players are well-positioned to benefit from these opportunities, with companies like Bumi Armada, MISC, Yinson and MTC having a strong track record in the region.

• The FPSO market in Southeast Asia remains buoyant, with several tenders expected for floating production, storage and offloading vessels.

Overall, these projects represent a significant opportunity for companies in the FPSO sector.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/double-fpso-opportunity-in-malaysia-about-to-begin-bidding-phase/2-1-1665451

Posted by nikicheong > 4 days ago | Report Abuse

Don't hold your breath though, I expect Bumi Armada to fail to secure either of these contracts.

Posted by Robert Waters > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Bumi Armada could NOT get a new contract even if a client slapped them across the face with it. That is what happened a year ago when Total asked them to develop Cameia, but Greedy Gary refused in order to pursue climate change and zero carbon initiatives by means of international conferences and luxury hotel junkets. So far he has zero new ESG achievement as well as he aims for carbon zero. Doing NOTHING to achieve ZERO. Carbon zero.

Posted by nikicheong > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Greedy Gary is going to Almaty in a few days. Blessed may he be.

Posted by Robert Waters > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

This is a beautiful city. I stayed there for a few weeks. Hope that they prop Greedy Gary up before the meetings like they do for Biden before the debate. Those old 'fat cats' need a lot of maintenance, preferring to sleep on warm fireplace and eat ice cream. Greedy Gary is only 60++ years old, so maybe less senile and more vivacious than Biden.

Posted by Gabriel Khoo > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Nik. May I know the prospect in Almaty?

Posted by raymondroy > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

kazakstan and the surrounding central asia are the worst when it comes to corruption, and crooked deals, just see what REACH is reaping..... if armada goes there then I believe its end of the road :-( just my opinion tho

Posted by Robert Waters > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I want to say that as disappointed as I am with Bumi Armada, the management of R0ach Energy Berhad has the absolute world record in incompetence and mismanagement. Those guys are clowns of ignorance beyond belief. They have a company like hibiscus, but they crash it down to RM 0.03. In comparison, Greedy Gary is OK.

Come to think about it, R0ach may be a good investment. If someone wants to spend money with me, we can join other forum. Management has been changed recently. But Kazakhstan ...

Posted by Robert Waters > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

I still stand by my opinion of last week here.
-----------------------------------------------
Robert Waters
Take it from a guy who spent 3 years in Kazakhstan, both offshore and onshore. All the projects I saw were failing as the locals were simply too corrupt even for Italians to handle them. And it takes a lot to outdo Italians in corruption.
They had good coffee though, I admit.

1 week ago

Posted by marlboroman2 > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

So long as BA hits Rm1 some time this year, I will be the first in the forum to address the CEO as the Venerable Gary.

Doesn't matter if next he flies to Timbuktu as part of his itinerary.

85 sens is perfectly fine too (the Brent TP)

Posted by nikicheong > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Looks like Yinson is set to secure yet another FPSO win in West Africa. Truly a slap on the face of Bumi Armada management. Despite having 3 to 4 FPSOs under varying phases of development, Yinson is still able to secure lucrative contracts. That's how far Bumi Armada has fallen. Their reputation in the FPSO space is tattered, and they have no reputation in the green energy or gas spaces. They were the best OSV player around a decade ago, now they sold off the entire OSV division. Bloody bunch of ammeters!

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/malaysia-player-set-to-scour-market-for-africa-fpso-topsides-modules/2-1-1666960

Posted by Robert Waters > 3 days ago | Report Abuse

Based on Bumi Armada lack of ability to execute, they should be taken over by Yinson. I remember when Yinson was a bus company in Johor (Logistics) and they bought one asset. At that time Armada was a big player. Now Armada has zero projects and Yinson is the star of the industry. Yinson could get a sukuk to take over Armada and shareholders would be better off.

Posted by jacintateh > 2 days ago | Report Abuse

Look at astro under ananda K. Going down the drain vs heydays except maxis stable giving out dividends but not moving also. All sama sama. Even though there is upside for BA but it is limited vs other players.