Dear Management, thank you for the dividends.

when the promotion is frenzy and the good news is out, it's obviously the time to run.

Someone's not taking the high road here which is less crowded.

diu

wow, affin hwang analyst diam diam already.

Within expectation. Performed impressively despite Cmco and it's perks. If executed correctly, Mr. Dollar and Mr. Toy can be the the restart of D.I.Y. story.

CCK - 12.5%
CCK-WA - 12.5%
MTAG - 15%
GKENT - 15%
MRDIY - 15%
KAREX - 20%
SUPERMX - 10%

- Let's assume you will have 100k cash on your hand and you will have to buy and hold the stock pick by you for a duration of 1 year.

- Buy and Hold Period: 01-Jan-2021 - 31-Dec-2021

- Each participant have to choose for a minimal of 5 and max of 10 stocks or Company Warrant which is not expire before 31-Dec-2021 (no Call Warrant, Put warrant or any other Derivative) where the stock price have to more than RM0.10 on 31-Dec-2020 5:00pm

- Each participant cannot invest > 30% of capital on any single stock - Each selected company (include the mother stock and warrants) is limited to a maximum investment of RM 30,000

- Each participant have to invest 99% of the cash (a min of 99k investment) but not choose to keep the cash (anywhere this is a stock pick contest but not a cash keeping contest)

- The stock price shall follow the closing price of the stock on 31-Dec-2020.

Sold 25100 Gkent Share @ 0.745. Will consider buy back if price drops lower.

Sold Innature. Bought CCK and CCKWA. I am trading way too much.

Bought 9700 Innature @ 0.515. Possible trading stock.

@ Raining - Is this another Writ of Summon? The amount claim is different and the defendant is also different. What's going on..

Added 6000 Karex @ 0.835. Their y.o.y. obm condom revenue growth is impressive.

Hi guys, I sold off half of my Gkent today due to political risk. It is still the highest weightage stock in my portfolio and you can see it in my openly shared portfolio. No doubt gkent is a very safe stock from a balance sheet, income statement's point of view. But I decided to reduce my exposure to it.

Sold additional 40,000 Gkent shares @ 0.785 after deliberating on political /LRT 3 project risk. Gkent is still my biggest slice in my portfolio however I am starting to see value in many other shares not seen before.

More interesting but potential useful speculations.

https://themalaysianreserve.com/2020/12/16/lrt3-to-face-delay-over-subcontract-work-award-interference/

THE completion of Light Rail Transit Line 3 (LRT3) project may face another round of delay as the project owner, Prasarana Malaysia Bhd, wants “more say” in the appointment of subcontractors for the project works from its main contractor — MRCB-George Kent Sdn Bhd.

However, the turnkey contractor has refused to do so, according to informed sources.

As a result, MRCB-George Kent has been given “a hard time” on its progress payment by Prasarana, a source told The Malaysian Reserve (TMR).

--------------------------
What Philip said previously about not using crony companies after PH's renegotiation makes sense in this context.

Sold 20,000 Gkent shares @ 0.805 after seeing q3 results. Planning to buy some karex and supermax if the price is right.

@Sslee

Based on HLG research dated on 22/10/2020.

LRT3. According to management, LRT3 order book now stands at RM4.1bn with an estimated completion rate of c.37%. So far, progress on its supplemental LRT3 agreements has been gradual. We believe a complete finalisation may only come early next year upon which meaningful earnings recognition from the project would commence (estimating between RM15-22m p.a). Payment-wise, Prasarana has been prompt having paid up to Sept-2020.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/57252.jsp

Just sharing, I do not vouch for any accuracy in this web article.

https://www.thevibes.com/articles/news/9545/prasarana-aims-to-boot-george-kent-as-lrt3-partner-report

As you can see from my portfolio, I am heavy on gkent. I will wait and see if there is any official news before making a move.

Sold some AJI and bought Supermax. A bit weird for a so-called value investor.

Main thing to watch if K, A and Serba itself is selling more shares to the public or not. If they also selling it now, what's left for long term investor?

Ah, finally one post which the comments isn't closed. No serious investors should follow KYY.

Shopping spree. Half FOMO perhaps. Lets see long term.

End of day, Ikan bilis will get burned playing with sharks.

Bought 7300 shares of RANHILL @ 0.82. Testing water.

Bought 300 shares of Carlsberg at 19.80. For study purpose.

Sold all my UOADEV @ RM1.60 per piece. Bought price 1.5966. Felt like its fairly valued but I prefer to hold some cash for any upcoming minor oil crash to purchase Pchem if it drops below Rm6.00.

Sold all my Chinwell @ Rm1.00 per piece. Same bought price. Extremely uncomfortable on how management bungled up the 26m on some fake D.O.

@ykloh you are probably right. I sense something fishy but I am reserving my judgement. Sucks to be a new shareholder.

@Raining Nobody knows, I have already factored in a 50/50 win loss for this business. That will be approximately 13m. I just cannot fathom how two different companies chose to deceive ChinWell at the same time for a whopping 26m and succeeded. Surely, there are some s.o.p on verifying the received goods from the customer before paying out to the supplier right?

Bought back more Gkent, Sold Half of Pchem because of fair value + uncertainty. Added half-half into Chin Well & UOADEV.

Sold 20400 GKENT for Personal reason.

Sold 500 YINSON at lost at 5.56. Decided not to dabble in short term trading again.

Bought 500 Yinson shares because it's oversold generally.

Bought 2500 PCHEM at 6.10. On the flip side, this company has credible and highly scrutinized track records.

Sold 9300 Share of SERBADK at break-even price because I didn't like the credibility of their contracts such as Tanzania's chlorine, UAE's 7.7bil EPCC and Zambia's ICT Contract. All contracts are JV with low-profile, track-recordless, seemingly politically-linked companies. Personally, I feel Karim spending his time more as a marketing director and his charisma, tech ideals reminds me of tony fernandes.

Looking into Berkshire Hathaway's class b share. Just some personal observations.
1) Share price is 3-year low. Y2020 Jan to June, price drop of 22%.
2) 22% drop may not reflect the future equity of BH. I guess BH's equity would not fall by more than 22% this year. For reference, Total Assets for Y19Q4 = 817bil, Y20Q1 = 760bil and Total Liabilities went down, so around 7% drop in total equity. But since US only started the lockdown in late march so Y20Q2 (june) balance sheet will be worse. But I foresee US economy recovering with hiccups but not worser than in April and May due to lockdown.
3) Current Price to book value is 1.17. Ten-year range is from 1.04 to 1.56. Just a metric for historical comparison.
4) I believe in Berkshire's philosophy for investment. People who stuck with Berkshire 4 years ago are still making gains of 23%. (CAGR of 5.44% per year)
5) Not confident in US market. Using BH-b as a proxy to US market.
6) Actually glad warren sold the airlines stocks. Even at a low. Keeping it would affect the balance sheet in long term.

Anybody looking at this share?

Can someone semi-intelligently explain why Gkent is buying back so many shares? Will it be cancelled hence reducing the No. of Outstanding Shares (NOSH) or held as treasury shares or ESOS or ..

Without any AA shares in my hands, I have been able to reflect more critically of this business for the past month. I actually think TF is a great businessman and also an extremely excellent marketing genius. Precisely on how he manages to conjure this vision of “Amazon of travel and Uber for flying” by using buzzwords like: Digitalisation, Artificial Intelligence, FinTech, disruptor and etc. to hook and lure the average investor into this promise of technological cash boom shares by companies like Uber, Grab, Lyft and cash flow like Amazon, Alibaba, Tencent and etc.

His charisma and accent is impeccable. Which to me is a plus for the management.

Just. Just now is not the right time for me to invest in AA. In fact, I have quadrupled my share in AAX recently. (Not a lot anyways). As I think it has more room for earnings growth and positive catalyst.

I am writing to consolidate and share with you guys without any ulterior motive. I would like to respond to those whom actually has some factual backing and has done deeper analysis on the subject. Thanks.

In fact, I would speculate that the sale & lease back model benefits TF and Kam the most by being the major shareholder. Yes, I understand they took a big loan several years ago to increase their shareholdings. Yes of course, they are eager to settle it.

Originally, some speculate that the cash returns could be reinvested to boost their new ventures. But no, nothing or rather a paltry sum (rm100m) is “promised” to be invested in the new biz. Then again, TF is smart enough in marketing to convince private investors to invest. He has gone to US recently for this purpose. Yesterday, Aileen also mentioned investment is open for Redbeat ventures. But remember new investors will take a share of the businesses.

Essentially, the airline business is weaken by the subsequent higher maintenance and leasing cost for cash returns that does jack/nothing for the business. I find it hard to believe TF giving 90sen SD to shareholders if he weren’t the main beneficiary. Like seriously? What management would increase operational cost permanently, and empty their coffer without gaining anything?

I've sold of all my 10,000 shares at 2.91 after the SD announcement and have been looking for an opportunity to buy back..

First plan was before Ex-dividend date then it became after Ex-dividend..

Now? I might not buy back after all. I guess my main reason is that the airline biz model has severely deteriorated with the sale and lease back model (more maintenance and leasing cost). Coupled with high fuel hedging rate + the current average fuel price, I believe it is very difficult for AA to make any significant operational profit for these 2 years.

Some might counter that AA is working on BigPay, Airasia.com, Teleport and etc. Buying into them at this point is a gamble when they are without any proven track record. It is safe to assume that they will not bring any significant profit to the table in these 2 years of their infancy. In fact, many of these technological startups has incur huge losses or fail despite having humongous amount of dollar pumped into it.

Buying into AA now can be equated into buying a mediocre, risky, weak profit & balance sheet airlines company with the promise of becoming the amazon of travel by surpassing leaders Expedia, Booking & Ctrip.. I'll believe it when I see it, however small the signs are.. thats when I will dip into AA again.

Ahh. I don't mislead or spread rumour. Just asking for your opinion only. Some might have misunderstood my tone of message.

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Posted by eesquare > Jun 7, 2019 4:17 PM | Report Abuse
Asking for your opinion. What are the chances of Airasia acquiring AAX? Also, why do you think Tony & Kam acquire 10% share at the end of last year? If they offer to take over at 60c per share, profit?

Asking for your opinion. What are the chances of Airasia acquiring AAX? Also, why do you think Tony & Kam acquire 10% share at the end of last year? If they offer to take over at 60c per share, profit?

Raymond say people will rush to get out, some say it will be a good price to enter.. what say u all?

Anyone has any reasonable prediction on whether stock price will go up or down after Ex-Dividend?

Waiting for CIMB Equities Research to comment.......

@ momocai Actually it doesn't make a lot of difference to me. Eventually after Ex-Dividend, you got richer but the company you own got poorer.

Peter Lynch has taught us to evaluate a company's worth through their total net cash or equivalent. Divide that net cash amount by per share and minus off that amount for the share price to get the hidden discount. Similar concept but in AA's case, their equity has reduced after giving the dividend. The share worth less after that.

More importantly, dividend should given and evaluated on a business criteria. For example, if business really has excess cash that they got nothing better to do, then some dividend is okay. I am no TF so I don't know his plans but maybe he intends to buy more share after this to increase his shareholding or... I don't know. we can all guess unless management explain to us.

@ Lee Hee Meng Actually the share will be more "valuable" after Ex-Dividend since it is considered "undervalued", possibly RM1.XX/ this year forecast EPS. Remember also, additional aircrafts has been sold recently in Q2, you can find the details in bursa announcement. So, likely Q2 will show a massive bump in profit. With low share price (ex-dividend) and bumper profit, speculatively- it will attract a lot of people. I might keep till then before offloading.

However, I might sell and buyback if there is a jump of 12% or more tomorrow since this is just temporary sentiment due to SD 90c. You can likely buy back at a lower price later. However the risk side will be another positive news coming such as: PSC charges lowered, feud with mahb resolved, exit tax delayed till 2020 and a lot more I cannot guess. Then u may not get it a lower price. Cheers!

Disadvantages of this 90 Sen Dividend:-
-Cant help but wonder when TF & Kam being 30% shareholder, are they doing this for themselves?
-AA got the cash due to sale of aircraft, I would rather them spending this bulk of money on acquiring good acquisition, marketing or investment.
-IMO, it doesnt make the share any more valuable. Afterall, the share price drops. In a way, you have merely transferred the value of 90c to your bank account. RM1.XX is still stucked.

Overall, I am quite neutral about it.

Benefits of this 90sen dividend to me:-
-Allow me to recoup 1/3 of my capital invested for better investment opportunity.
-significantly reduce the share price so the P/E ratio won't be too high after factoring the lower Forecast EPS for Q1,2,3 combined. Remember, AA PE was 4.X before Q12019 Release. Now its 8.X. Might encourage more investors.
-Helps to distract the masses on the less than satisfactory Q1 Results. Thank God load factor increased, extra income from Ancillary, but Lower Fare Price and Higher Leasing, Maintenance cost kinda subdued it.