KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 12): After Malaysia’s crude palm oil (CPO) inventory declined to a three-and-a-half-year low of 1.26 million tonnes in December 2020 from 1.56 million tonnes in November, analysts believe a seasonal production uptick, coupled with weaker export demand, will help replenish stocks and consequently drive prices down. In a note, MIDF Research projected CPO prices will continue to increase in the first quarter of 2021 (1Q21) on the back of anticipated supply tightness and higher export demand. However, it presumes CPO prices will soften in the second half of this year (2H21) due to better production levels and lower export demand.   It set its CPO target price at RM2,700 level per tonne this year and maintained its “neutral” stance on the sector.   Advertisement The average CPO spot price increased by 6.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) to RM3,650.98 per tonne in December 2020, mainly in view of possible supply tightness on a low inventory level, recovery in export demand, anticipation of lower production due to labour shortage and the monsoon season. Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research analyst Chye Wen Fei also concurred that the palm oil stockpile will likely remain at a low level in the coming months, which will see CPO prices remain elevated at above RM3,000 per tonne until end-1Q21. “Beyond 1Q21, we anticipate CPO prices to soften on the back of a better supply outlook for major edible oils (based on assumptions that the labour shortage in Malaysia will gradually ease from 2021 and La Nina does not strengthen further), which will result in more balanced demand-supply dynamics,” said Chye. Chye also has a “neutral” call for the sector as the research house believes current high CPO prices will not be sustained over the longer term. Hence, it maintained its CPO price assumptions of RM2,700 per tonne for 2020 to 2022. For exposure, Chye said HLIB’s top picks are Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd ("buy"; target price [TP]: RM2.17), IJM Plantations Bhd ("buy"; TP: RM2.29) and TSH Resources Bhd ("buy"; TP: RM1.38). On a side note, after the movement control order (MCO) enforcement announcement by Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin yesterday, MIDF Research remained cautious about the production level due to a lower workforce as well as standard operating procedures (SOPs) in work areas. A lack of labour would lead to delays in harvesting activities, impacting the quality of fruit bunches. Nonetheless, it opined that the enforcement of the MCO is unlikely to have much impact on the plantation sector as it is categorised as an essential economic sector and allowed to operate. Lam Jian Wyn

-MPOB expects palm oil exports revenue to reach RM74 bil
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KUALA LUMPUR (Jan 11): Export revenue from palm oil and palm oil products this year is expected to increase by 2.4% to RM74 billion versus the RM72.30 billion recorded in 2020, said the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). Director-general Dr Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir said crude palm oil (CPO) production is likely to go up by 2.9% to 19.70 million tonnes from 19.14 million tonnes last year, while stock is expected to jump 58.7% to two million tonnes against 1.26 million tonnes. “Palm oil exports will improve 0.7%to 17.50 million tonnes, from 17.37 million tonnes. Despite experiencing various hurdles domestically and globally, the Malaysian palm oil industry has successfully adapted to the new norms. “The year 2021 is expected to bring a brighter prospect for the Malaysian oil palm industry with all the key indicators of the industry projected to show better performance,” he said during a virtual Palm Oil Economic Review & Outlook (R&O) Seminar organised by MPOB today. 广告 He said together with the Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities and other related agencies, the MPOB will continue to work closely with industry players in facing the ongoing challenges for the sustenance of the Malaysian oil palm industry. In regard to the CPO price, he predicted that the outlook for 2021 was going to be firmer, averaged at RM3,000 per tonne. Still on price outlook, Singapore-based Palm Oil Analytics owner and co-founder, Sathia Varqa said CPO futures trading would be dominated by lower production and low stocks in the country. “Price supported at RM3,500-RM3,800 per tonne up until middle of February. Prices will ease to RM3,200-RM3,400 per tonne from March 2021,” he said. He also predicted the sector’s production and exports to increase but said this may be affected should the government impose another movement control order due to the high number of Covid-19 cases in several states. He foresees positive demand prospects for Malaysian palm oil in the first quarter, especially from India and China — two key destination markets which are currently understocked.

在美豆延续强势且国内豆油去库态势良好的同时，马棕在超低库存预期下表现也同样给力。主流机构预计马棕12月产量环比降12%左右至131-132万吨，同期出口环比增15%-18%至150-153万吨，月末库存降至120万吨左右的历史超低水平。而按季节性规律，未来2-3个月马棕库存有望继续回落，超紧张供应支撑其报价强劲。此外，疫情引发新一轮的限制，马来种植园禁止招聘外来劳工的禁令被进一步延长，行动限制令区域继续扩大，且部分区域因降雨过多引发洪涝阻碍收割运输，令市场对一季度供应恢复的预期被削弱。 虽然印尼的供应相对宽松，但在高额的出口税费下，报价也难出现大幅下调。印尼刚刚才把毛棕榈油出口关税从12月的33美元/吨上调至1月的74美元/吨，出口附加税从12月的180美元/吨升至225美元/吨。在当前印尼棕榈油报价因高额的出口税费仍升水马来报价的情况下，马棕的超紧张供应给予产地报价较强支撑，并令国内棕榈油进口利润进一步倒挂。 虽然后半周来自印尼及马来推迟生柴掺混计划的消息对市场情绪形成一定利空打压，但市场其实对印尼推迟B40早有预期，且该影响更多在于远月。在国内一季度买船不足的情况下，当务之急仍是解决棕榈油进口利润如何打开的问题。在产地报价偏强的背景下，通过连盘或基差上涨来修复概率较大，现货高升水的情况下，也赋予了连盘棕榈油下方较强的支撑。

windfall profit tax =3% ,if above 2500rm , export tax 8% for month of jan2021

argentine bans export of soya,till March 2021, Russia may also bans their soya export , critical tight supply

cpo price could reach 4000 rm per tonne

"stop the steal",it is clear and loud.

sop a under valued stock, just like glove stocks, before the up surge,all calm before the storm.Flooding occures in most part of palm oil producing states like Pahang and Johore.

俄罗斯对大豆征收30%的出口关税政策已进入公众公开讨论阶段。远东大豆种植企业联合向俄政府提出反对意见。俄政府或会考虑在征收大豆关税政策基础上，添加补充条款，以避免对远东大豆种植户造成冲击，目前俄政府尚未签署法令。 俄罗斯大豆出口量约90万吨，占远东大豆产量的一半，其中约80万吨对中国出口。在俄从事大豆种植的中国农户和中国企业大豆产量占比达到25%。 对大豆征收出口关税与葵花籽出口关税上调原因本质不同。俄大豆产量440万吨，境内加工规模可达700万吨，大豆原料严重短缺，豆粕类饲料主要原料产量不足或成本高，进而影响俄畜牧业健康发展。

agree with @drobertp40 ,kyy thinks with no logic, and he is not so well informed.

people not familiar with palm estates in general ,dont know how to make a simple projection of estate profit,let us simply the estimation , take example of SOP, roughly ,the cost of production per metric ton, 1900-2000rm,(taking from past year records).various taxes,in maximum number= 10%, equavalent ,350 rm per tonnes,the rest is profit net ,. Taking the current price in average of 3500 . we get roughly 1100 rm per tonnes profit. In SOP monthly production figures range from 45000 to 30000, let said 35000 tonnes, 35000x1100=38m. one quarter the number will be 114 millions.

i think in general,investors still worry the run up in cpo prices is just seasonal, and have not realised the fact that a structural change has taken place. Biodiesel,B30-B40, has largely increase the Indonesia consumption , this lead to larger disappearance in Indonesian oil inventary.On the demand side,the increase in consumption from china and india,caused the total demand number larger then supply number,in the equation. This can only change if Indonesia abolish the B30-40 biodiesel program.

who said Bidden wins, other then certain media.

CGS-CIMB 研究公司的调查结果显示，由于产量下降，11月底马来西亚棕榈油库存预计降至154万吨，比10月份下降2%，创下2004年以来的最低值。

CGS-CIMB种植业研究主管黄丽雱和纳古兰·拉维在一份研报里称，调查显示，11月底棕榈油库存可能比上年同期减少32%。

11月马来西亚毛棕榈油产量预计为155万吨，环比下降10.4%。分析师称，调查显示，沙巴州种植园的产量降幅最高，而沙捞越种植园的产量降幅最低。

11月份产量低于过去10年平均产量173万吨的原因在于，目前马来西亚依然冻结外国工人许可证，加上季节性因素，造成劳工人手短缺。此外，拉尼娜造成降雨量高于正常水平，导致收获中断。

11月份马来西亚棕榈油出口量预计为138万吨，环比下降17%，低于过去10年里11月份的平均出口量149万吨。

分析师表示，出口疲软的部分原因可能在于，毛棕榈油价格上涨导致消费者需求受到调配。此外，一些贸易商可能因为预计印度政府可能削减毛棕榈油进口关税而暂停采购。印度从2020年11月27日起将毛棕榈油进口关税削减10%，至27.5%。

分析师表示，由于马来西亚和印度尼西亚棕榈油库存偏低，以及其他主要竞争食用油供应紧张，11月份毛棕榈油均价为3436令吉，环比上涨15%，同比上涨37%。

CGS-CIMB分析师预计12月份毛棕榈价格将运行在2800-3400/吨，因为马来西亚库存预计偏低，而库存重建需要时间；以及马来西亚棕榈油出口预计增长，因为贸易商利用印度降低毛棕榈油进口关税以及年底前马来西亚对毛棕榈油出口征收零关税。

higher price invites profit taking

taann today performed very well

very clear juncture, there is a terrible 'squeeze' in palm oil market, demand much higher then supply, at least for next six months, any thing could happen in the future

for trending market, today's high , would be tomorrow's low.

gooshit had been calling people to sell since penta was priced at 2.80, no shame sucha freak

fake news media on fake recovery

诈骗公司，根本就不应该上市。

market needs to price in post-covid scenario, that is a different market.

short term speculators with no clues,only hit and run,no surprise .

gooshit is just a joke ,a liar ,worse then CNN.

no worry lah , umw moves back to the glorious ,good old days, nothing wrong.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3108372

CBOT大豆继续上涨，出口需求旺盛 2020-11-21   周五，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货市场收盘上涨，创下四年来的新高，因为出口需求旺盛，南美天气担忧。 截至收盘，大豆期货上涨2.25美分到6.50美分不等，其中1月期约收高3.50美分，报收1181美分/蒲式耳；3月期约收高5.75美分，报收1181.25美分/蒲式耳；5月期约收高6.50美分，报收1179.50美分/蒲式耳。 成交最活跃的1月期约交易区间在1176.75美分到1196.75美分。 大豆市场连续第六个交易日上涨，创下四年来的最高水平，因为南美大豆产区天气持续干燥，美国供应下滑令人担忧。 不过多头获利平仓抛售，使得豆价从高点回落。从周线图上来看，大豆市场连续第三周收涨。 荷兰合作银行的分析师称，今年市场很担忧供应。巴西大豆作物已经进入对降水高需求的时期，而美国所剩余的大豆出口供应也不多。 虽然过去一周巴西和阿根廷部分地区出现了急需的降雨，但是许多大豆产区依然干燥，这些地区需要更多的降雨来结束干旱。 阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所称，过去一周阿根廷大豆播种步伐快速推进，因为干旱的地区出现了降雨。不过全国大部分地区依然干燥。 一位分析师称，南美气象预报显示阿根廷大部分地区依然干燥，温度高于正常，这非常令人担忧。 南美天气干燥，使得最终用户集中精力采购美国大豆，不过美国大豆供应同样趋紧，市场正在调配需求。

appointment of assemblymen is simply unconstitutional

currently experienced a very tight supply situation for oil and fat in world market, reasonable good price for palm oil at least for another six months or more.

gooshit goes every where to shit around , does he knows that is not hygenic

fgv style of management, stay away please

forget about kyy, jtiasa runs the plantation business like fgv style. so u know the result.

with the vaccine coming into market, and Covid- virus come under control, umw will return,and enjoy their previous glory.

Windfall tax: Levy charged is at a rate of 3% on palm oil prices above RM2,500 / tonne in Peninsular Malaysia and at a rate of 1.5% on palm oil price above RM3000 / tonne in Sabah & Sarawak ​​

http://www.customs.gov.my/en/pg/Pages/pg_pwt.aspx

Budget，no winfall tax, good for plantations

production cost in China has aready sky rocketed, more you may face policy of "state participation" in private company., your company may ended ,swallow up by communist officials.

don't be silly . maintain status que, is the best political interest of Anwar, new election is too risky , and uncertain.

windfall tax is ridiculous, should not be introduced ,at all,not in any form.

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 3): Unisem (M) Bhd rose as much as 4.61% or 25 sen to a record high level of RM5.67. At 10.30am, the counter had pared some gains at RM5.50, still up eight sen or 1.48%. The counter saw 694,600 shares change hands. Its share price has exceeded the target prices (TPs) of most analysts covering the stock, except for MIDF Research which pegged the stock at RM5.86 since the company showed a strong earnings recovery in its results for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2020 (3QFY20). Earlier on Oct 26, MIDF upgraded Unisem to "buy" from "hold", and raised its TP to RM5.86 from RM3.10. The research house also revised upwards its FY20-22 earnings estimates for Unisem to RM135.4 million-RM204.7 million due to higher revenue assumptions for all of its market segments, with the exception of the automotive segment, which in turn led to healthier profit margins. CGS-CIMB Research, which reiterated its "add" call with a higher TP of RM5.50 (previously RM4.25) for Unisem, also raised its FY20-22 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts by 17%-24% to account for higher utilisation and new capacity expansion. “Unisem is entering a multi-year growth phase driven by strategic portfolio expansion for radio frequency, power management and sensor products,” it said. Meanwhile, Affin Hwang Capital, Kenanga Research, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research and KAF Research, also with "buy" calls for the stock, have TPs ranging between RM4.25 and RM5.21.

polls numbers are fake

Trump is "sure win".no doubt about it.,American are not fools.

the real story is the project of making "ev battery",(electrical vehicle battery).for customers like Tesla

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 26): Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Oct 1-25 rose 7.1% to 1,412,361 tonnes from 1,319,405 tonnes shipped during Sept 1-25, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia on Monday.


https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysias-oct-125-palm-oil-exports-rise-71-%E2%80%94-amspec-agri

中共国经济数据，臭名昭著。造假为多，不要上当。

美国经济坚稳，需求很好。马来西亚出口美国增加，带动经济整体向好；不要妒忌。

没问题。最多换个比较有能力的政府，那可是好事。

he is an opportunist,"see human say human's words, see ghost , say ghost words." 100% unreliable

market ignores KYY's curse.

Greatec: do not buy it - Koon Yew Yin - Koon Yew Yin's Blog | I3investor https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-10-20-story-h1534737824-Greatec_do_not_buy_it_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

Tesla

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2020-10-22-story-h1534765752-Tesla_sets_revenue_record_makes_profit_thanks_to_pollution_credit_sales.jsp

gooshit,cowdung, only useful as fertilizer, not for stock investment