If that second wave arrives as he expects, it will coincide with flu season. That means there may be a lot of people who become sick in the fall and winter, compounding the pressure on the healthcare system.

“It will likely be worse than the initial wave we experienced this spring,” Glatter predicted. “Combined with influenza, the intensity of both viruses combined could make our initial COVID-19 look benign.”

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-a-covid-19-wave-in-the-fall-could-look-like

Becoz of trump, covid will spread like wild fire until the arrive of fall. Asp of glove will likely spike again by then becoz they hav not seen the worst of covid becoz it started in spring this yr with a small base.now they mosg probably will march into fall with million of base spreader .

goldberg...so old post also kena dig out...thumbs up..lol...yahoo128...350 million u so greedy ah...lol

dunno why..cannot take my eyes off the thigh...lol

looks very bad on BURSA as islamic centre...

lets welcome supermax to hijarah shariah index ...ib say cannot let supermax red red bear trend enter...lol

chief...today so free to speak...lol

Everyone here...i am not asking u to chase price ah.... The result is notknown and i myself is hopeful a 200 million profit. But we never know whether it will be 100 million instead . the market now think it is 100 miliion with current price until they r convinced.

Dear OTB sifu

I also conservative estimate 200 million.
Of course i hope more....lol
But i think it is reasonable within reach.
Thank you .

illidonleong...
Supermax jump from 1.8 to 4.5 = 2.5 x profit (30 mill x 2.5 =75 million)

so 4.5 is the base for next tp calculation.

IF 2x profit of 70 million = 2x 4.5= 9
If 300 milion then is already 10 x of precovid profit u can use 1.8 x 10 = 18.00

Jus a guide only..dun follow as rule. u can adjust with your risk appetite and apply discount.

troy88...when TG spike up from 12 that day.it is the day the result is leaked and ppl know tg result is 3 x previous qtr profit...so 5.5x3 = 16.5 is the factored in price.

For supermax..the result is not known..so the price now has not price in the qtr 4 result. u will c in july the result is leaked n price shoot up b4 qtr 4.

IF result is
100 million TP = 6.75
140 million = 9.0
210 million = 13.5
280 million = 18.0
350 million = 22.5

The above price might is jus a guide n not neccesary be reached b4 qtr 4.

if it is true , he annouce b4 company...he will be in trouble ah.

Charlest...I prefer to entertain Philip...at least he got rm80m portfolio n 10 years good result

I always laf when c charlest argue with philips...

sharenewbie...i no sifu ...i only share info..i ask u buy n sell..i will got karma one...i ask ppl to buy or sell for wat..no affect my position..i no benefit anything. but i might make ppl cry ..so i dun recommend ppl buy or sell.

the vacine wont workone la...u can c ppl recovred also will get covid again..its jus like flu..u will not immune to flu.forever u will get flu. So even if u vaccine (if it is working) the most is 3mths to 6 mths. then u need vaccine again. I think at that rate...u will never get a jab in your clinic becoz simply too many ppl to vaccine.

sharesnewbie...still got ppl blindly believe the IB report.

Precisely, i dun trust ib report ,thats why i do my own calculation n share it here.After that i all in becoz they counted wrongly n saw opportunity. Until now , they r still wrong n only UOB said something more releaistic about supermax.

So dun trust ib totally,do your own research. Sometime they overblow but sometime they hide the critical facts.

Wongtty ,heres the link

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/klci-review-tm-klccp-ammb-mahb-out

Stanley..u finish playing your erhu already is it...finish collection then faster let go the spring ah.

OTB sifu..is this wat u says a double bottom will confirm a super run that day?

sharenewbie...u r wrong..engineering profit sifu make a lot of profit...lol

with 40 billion caps in 2022 ...only need 1.5 sen(USD3.60) profit margin enuff to giv 600 million profit per year.
46 sen eps @pe 20 =rm 9.20
A normalised of rm6- rm9.20 per share after covid is realistic.
So even if u bot between 7-9. theres nothing for u to worry.So far i know who invested (not goreng) in big 4 gloves counter since their listing had not lost money.

I am not against selling high buying bak low. if u are good i even encourgae u to do that. Since if a stock is good, ppl will buy bak at their expected "cheap" price. So eventually all will be back for the next ride again.

sunshine99..thanks for your trust...lol...

Jus the increase in demand from china and india is enuff to overwhelm all the glove producer in the world for many yrs.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3089476/there-may-be-no-immunity-against-covid-19-new-wuhan-study

Dun need depend on vaccine.natural recovered also will get reinfected.permanent increase in gloves demand will ensure high asp post covid. Eventhough not as high as peak period.but enuff to ensure supermax maintaining 100million per qtr when supermax double capacity to 40 billion in 2022. 400 million per year equals to 30sen eps =rm6.00 @ pe 20.

So even post covid the price of supermax will average at rm6.00. After this covid.supermax is no longer the rm2 per share counter. Take note.

1st glove rally started with supermax QTR 3 end with TG QTR 3.
2nd wave rally will start with Supermax again b4 QTR 4.

chief999..wah today so active ah...hope supermax beyondmask launch world wide soon...

According to uob calculation ,supermax tp is rm20-22 in fy 2021. But they dare not put the price. No ib dare to put. Uob says supermax is in single digit pe in fy2021 at today price. If it is pe 25 then it will be about 3x 7.20 =21.60.

The islamic fund may hav started to move into supermax at 4.50 today after the islamic investment conference.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2020/06/17/malaysias-islamic-finance-sector-to-hit-rm3t-this-year-says-bursa-chairma/1876247

KUALA LUMPUR, June 17 — Malaysia’s Islamic finance sector is expected to sustain double-digit growth to reach almost RM3 trillion in 2020 under the second Capital Market Masterplan, according to Tan Sri Abdul Wahid Omar.

“The FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index, comprising the 30 largest Shariah-compliant companies on the FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Index, has consistently outperformed the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI, growing about 32 per cent between 2010 and May 2020.

* * *
Supermax going into FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index on 22 Jun.

Hartalega, Top Glove and Kossan should be trading at 45.0x, 23.5x and 23.0x PE to their respective financial year ends.
Y shld Supermax trade at single digit PE then?

Some key highlights views from UOB Kay Hian on Supermax on 17 Jun 2020:

Supermax’s valuations could normalise sharply to single-digit PE. With the surge in earnings, Supermax’s one-year forward PE could normalise sharply to single-digit PE. It would trade at a significant laggard to peers.

We believe Hartalega, Top Glove and Kossan should be trading at 45.0x, 23.5x and 23.0x PE to their respective financial year ends. Other potential catalysts include being part of the FBMKLCI Index in Nov 20 should a vaccine be not discovered by then.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally , got 1 IB analyst taking Supermax OBM valuation seriously. He is saying that supermax will be trading at single-digit PE in fy2021 at current price. Meaning a 1billion profit or 80sen to rm1.00 eps.

newbie8080...

eg.Supermax sell @US$150/1000pcs with their own brand Aurelia in us.
TG,HARTA,KOSSAN or other gloves company sell@US$40 to Aralala Gloves selling @US$150/1000pcs.

To end consumer ,they only know Aurelia n Aralala.

TG,HARTA,KOSSAN or other gloves company @40 -20(estimate cost) earn 20 profit.
Supermax earn US$150 -20 =US$130

Jus an example , not the exact price n cost.

now i dun even bother to log in to c real time ...treat it as 1 month FD ..c next moonth got interest or not.

Ntpboon ..thanks good info.

Looking forward to qtr 4 result, hopefully in July.
I only need USD10/1000pcs (5sen per pcs) increase to achieve 5.5 bill x 5 sen= 275 million profit.

It currently commands ASPs of close to US$160-175/’000 pieces vs
US$150 in May and US$90 pre-COVID period. We gather there is limited upside to current
ASPs as various government agencies have implemented redirecting of personal protective
equipment (PPE) supplies of close to US$160-175/’000 pieces. That said, Supermax does
receive urgent ad hoc orders in the range of US$190/’000 pcs.

super_newbie...dun worry...6 by qtr 3, 9 by qtr 4, 12 by qtr 1....if result is much better than i thought...above10 by qtr 4 is very possible. jus take it one step at a time. ppl are too impatient.

Jus look out for major move in july. when result will b known by insider , staff n employee. Corporate actions and early release of result. Jun to july is exciting months. Theres nothing we can do now....jus determination to avoid panic sell.

Glove will not dance with Down jones movement once consolidation is finish. that is when ppl make false decision and caught by surprise.

i wrote an email to ask...hope they clarify.

smo@bursamalaysia.com

cbpenbrush...dun say like that ah...as wat i know chief999, wok and mytwocent n others all old bird in supermax, hold many yrs, sing birthday song with stanley one.they know much more than me. its jus that they too busy seldom speak.

Thank you OTB sifu and charlesT...Chief999..u din scroll up to c ?

“It has become a new norm to wear gloves for various purposes, including medical and retail, and the high usage will benefit their makers in the long term,” said Walter Aw, an analyst at CGS-CIMB Research. “Supermax is a very interesting story. It does its own brand manufacturing, while others are mainly suppliers

Got show stanley photo n mostly covered supermax..lol..he very good terms with foreign press i guess.

morning kim sifu...kim sifu, chief999 ,pang72 many all the pioneer ah...i only come in second batch...lol

vanness_lyh...dunno how many ppl go holland becoz of my post...sifu somemore...lol

charlest...i only post when ppl will b listening...lol..if too much negativity ..no need waste time. Is Team A show time then Team B mus go rest. then fair ma.

teripen...sorry for confusion, i mean at price rm9.00 pe = 9/24.62 = 37

PE @ current price 7.4 = 30

PE @ rm 9.00 = 37

To complement Calvin sifu comparision.

Supermax monthly profit is about 10 million (30m/3) precovd.
Let assume

Jan profit 10 x20% = 12 mil
Feb = 12 x 20% = 15 mil
March profit = 71 -27 = 44 mil

Huge increase of precovid of 10 m = 44 mil = 440% increase

It cannot be increase in volume becoz of covid lockdown.
So the 440% would be the effect of increase in ASP. Which i assume is massive spot order n OBM non-lock in price decision by maangement.

U can try compare all gloves company from jan to mar. Only supermax record a mom 400% increase in profit.
This pull supermax margin from 9% precovid to 15 % within 1 month

To complement Calvin sifu comparision.


Supermax monthly profit is about 10 million (30m/3) precovd.
Let assume

Jan profit 10 x20% = 12 mil
Feb = 12 x 20% = 15 mil
March profit = 71 -27 = 44 mil

Huge increase of precovid of 10 m = 44 mil = 440% increase

It cannot be incresae in volume becoz of covid lockdown.
So the 440% would be the effect of increase in ASP. Which i assume is massive spot order n OBM non-lock in price decision by maangement.

U can try compare all gloves company from jan to mar. Only supermax record a mom 400% increase in profit.
This pull supermax margin from 9% precovid to 15 % within 1 month

But seems many ppl dun wan early release...i think they dun wan price run up too fast b4 they buy bak.

their mailbox full already...it repairing...hope they received our message. But i beleive they will annouce earlier. so i dun wan to press them further. Trust their judgement.

IF after qtr 4 result..supermax pe is 40...compare to other like tg may b 100, harta 100, kossan 60 etc. ppl will subconsciously think supermax is undervalued. And will not take this as a reason to attack the share as overvalued.

the PE number still counts a lot...thats why the earlier they annouce..the pe can adjust down earlier.Many uncle n auntie still c the number to play. At least if pe lower, the margin of safety is higher. U c TG after super result pe still damn high...uncle n auntie still dare to buy or not.

Wjng666...i said already yesterday i still holding ..too many negative comment flooded already. No interest to do actively do blog. I do or no do wont affect my trading position. Dun wan to bring ppl to holland. i jus quietly trade can already.

chief999...so much data how to spill...i c already headache...lol..wok's data so overwhelming...so many numbers..