Sifu raider,

No need be so angry, i know that 3iii, is not playing by the rules but you no need to get so angry.

In fact, i like to thank sifu raider for recommending me to buy hengyuan at rm 2.00.

I did not sell the share and still holding, thanks to their explaination of the merits of hengyuan.

I hope 3iii do not make this type of accusation, that you can never substantiate in this cyber world.

The write up by stockraider article covering, comparative study on Petronas and Petron investment on new refinery capacity, give us an in sight of the potential wealth generation power of Hengyuan on a normalise earnings basis based on IRR 10% pa.

The reasons why Petron and Petronas refinery invest , means there are sustainable refinery profitability out there.

That means, even if the crack margin drop back to USD 5 to 6 per barrel, the refinery still can sustained at good profit level at this normalised level.

I am sure Petronas and Petron had done their sensitivity analysis before they decide to invest in the new capex.

This is a great article.
It reminded us to be patience and be discipline when we wait and reap for good harvest.

If you cut your vegetable too early you cannot get a good reasonable weight.

Sometime the market act funny, they will shakeout and creating alots of fear, we need to have the stomach to weather the storm.

Last week monday, i was so panic and freakout and to avoid the panic and the pain, i have to just switch off the screen.

Lucky tuesday and wednesday Hengyuan share price recorded some pleasant recovery.

I hope with the improvement in crack margin in Q3, the coming Hengyuan profit will grow alot.

Mr Charles,

Icap gain in NTA is about 10% this year much better than fd 3%+ you mentioned.

Credits to be given to TTB for catering to risk adverse investor who wants some capital appreciation.

AKS - Weak Earnings
Date: 18/08/2017

Source : PUBLIC BANK
Stock : JAKS Price Target : 1.50 | Price Call : HOLD
Last Price : 1.33 | Upside/Downside : +0.17 (12.78%)


JAKS Resources’ (JAKS) 2QFY17 net profit came in at a paltry RM2.0m (-79.7% YoY, -73.3% QoQ) which was again below our and consensus expectations. The key profit driver is its Vietnam EPC construction work but the losses from its property development and property investment divisions almost wiped out all the gains. It also incurred charges for the granting of share options for the long-term incentive plan (LTIP) amounting to RM7.6m. Ex-LTIP charges, the Group’s 1H2017 net profit of RM17.1m only constituted c.29% and 28% of our and consensus full year estimates. Worryingly, we understand that the liquidated and ascertained damages (LAD) from Pacific Star could drag till next year, which is worse than expected. As such, we adjust downwards our FY17/18 earnings by 39% and 11% respectively after accounting for LTIP charges and LAD charges. The earnings from its EPCC contract remains patchy, with only RM10.2m recognized in Q2FY17, down from RM14.9m in Q1FY17. Until we see more progress i.e. billings from Vietnam, we would rather err on the side of caution and maintain Neutral call for now, with unchanged RM1.50 TP, derived from c.30% discount to our SOTP estimates of RM2.20.

Higher revenue from construction. Construction revenue rose 25.8% YoY, driven by progress billing from local jobs. We understand that its EPC construction in Vietnam is progressing on schedule and is expected to be stronger in the coming quarters. Outstanding orderbook is estimated at RM2.5bn, depleted from RM2.6bn in the last quarter. The EPC contract for Vietnam IPP alone is estimated at RM1.63bn, with the other key contract being the Sungai Besi-Ulu Kelang Elevated Expressway (SUKE) job (RM484m contract value).

Earnings drag from property. Property division continued to drag earnings, with c.RM13m net loss incurred during the quarter, from RM10m loss in Q1FY17. Again, the losses were due to operating cost and expenses related to financing cost and building depreciation of the Evolve Concept Mall amounting to c.RM7.9m. Meanwhile, the Pacific Star project at Section 13, Petaling Jaya also incurred RM6.9m LAD charges. Unbilled sales stood at RM194.1m in 2QFY17.

Source: PublicInvest Research - 18 Aug 2017


I think Uncle Koon may have the for sight that Jaks future is good, if not why Pbank recommend Tp Rm 1.50 ?

They must have the for sight to see beyond current quarterly result.

I notice good result, but what about dividend ?
This type of counter need to pay reasonable dividend for people to have confidence.

Mr Tan Teong Boo, is a good share master, i like him.
If you look into his portfolio, it is always positive increase in value every year despite investing 50% of icap cash.

This means icap do offer protection beside capital appreciation.
Icap is a safe stock to invest.

Uncle Aseng,

You look grumpy today, just cheer up in this early saturday morning.

Many sifu like icon, probability, paperlane, uncle Ooi teik bee, uncle Koon and stockraider all like this stock and spoke highly of it.

They have done alot of work & very good research and analysis which convince me to hang on to this stock.

I notice you don't like hengyuan, can you tell me the reasons why?
Can you tell us your side of the story?
I am interested to hear your different opinion.

I think should buy palmoil stock because it offer very good value.

However, i think we should pick palmoil stocks with good corporate governance like bplant, cbip and kim loong, these stocks offer good dividend while we wait for capital appreciation to come in.

I think now is the best time to get back in reach because crude oil price is moving up.

In addition, my friend told me this company has ramp up production alot, and the current share price is like almost 40% discount from the QA price done last year, which make additional sense for us to buy now.

11) HENGYUAN +309.9% 8.320 2.030 (NTA 4.249)
gohku 51%|cubic7117 29%|Diamond7 26%.

I am one of the main beneficiary on hengyuan run up, todate already make 300% on this counter. Last 2 weeks there is some selling pressure on this counter, i did panic,but luckily after some deep research, i decided to hang on and not to sale, that decision appear to be right.

Now with the Dalian refinery fire, the crack margin had move up stronger to USD 13.00, it is like more than 100% gain in margin, since the beginning of the year.
Thus with the Q2 result coming within 1 to 2 weeks, it expected the stock price will sustained its momentum and further run up in share price.

I also notice that the issuance of many call warrants last 2 weeks, which i believe will create more interest on the hengyuan share, besides the already good volume generated on the successful call warrant trading.
This is confirmed, if u analyse and compare the hengyuan mother share trading volume before the availability of call warrant and after.

Looking at the current situation, i think we should just hang on to Hengyuan share and ride the upward wave and if we sale now will be a big mistake.

From my research on superlon, 80% of its business come from oversea.
That will mean its business is not only from air con insulation, it comprises of heating element insulation as well .

Thus, malaysia aircond sales is not a good indicator to gauge superlon business .

10) HENGYUAN +273.4% 7.580 2.030 (NTA 4.249)
gohku 48%|cubic7117 27%|Diamond7 25%.

Good news, my close friend who is working in Petron ,the engineering side told me business is good and will be likely to record good profits.

It is likely Hengyuan will also do well too.

Hope we can celebrate together.

Cheers.

Studying the data given by uncle 3iii, this hengyuan had been trading from high of rm 11.30 in 2007 and a low of rm 6.36 in 2013.

Even the year of 2008 to 2012 during the subprime problem, this stock is trading at rm 8.10 to rm 11.30 still well ahead of the current price of rm 7.71 which consider very high by many bear sifu .

If you study the prices in the loss year 2008 its eps loss - 1.10 but share price Rm 8.10, then 2011 eps loss -0.21 but share price rm 9.18 and 2012 eps loss 0.31 but share price rm 8.40.

The question is despite this 4 years of losses which in subprime year, the Hengyuan share price trade comfortably above rm 8.00 to 9.50 much y above the current high price, why ?

If use P/E use as a computation, the share had traded at Pe 30x in 2010 and a pe 1.7x in 2016, what had caused its vast diverse fluctuation in valuation ?

The main reason is due the successful takeover of Shell by China party at Rm 1.92, when the information make known in 2014 to 2015. The share price collapse from Rm 5.00 to Rm 2.00.
People are thinking, if the Dutch is willing to sell Shell at Rm 1.92 logically it worth such a low value, they are not stupid.

However the opponent think otherwise, the parent had make a stupid decision to sell so cheap, at this giveaway price.

This can be seen after Dutch has confirmed sale of Hengyuan to china;

It hengyuan reported strong eps of;
2015 EPS Rm 1.17
2016 EPS Rm 1.11
2017 Q1 EPS Rm 0.93
2017 TTM EPS Rm 1.71

That means hengyuan had make more than eps Rm 3.21 over 2 yrs a far cry from the Rm 1.92 per share disposal price.

From the above analysis you can see the dutch had made a very silly decision to sale shell cheap, because within a period of 2 years the buyer had fully recovered its investment.

The conclusion, is that the Learned Dutch is quite silly to sale, hence Hengyuan should be worth much more as many sifu had anticipated, as it is above Rm 8.00 to 10.00 most of the time despite the string of losses in 2008 to 2012, its price is still above rm 8.00.

Posted by 3iii > Aug 12, 2017 10:24 PM | Report Abuse

Hengyuan
Historical P/E
Date……… ….. Price ….. EPS ….. P/EPS
31/12/2007 ….. 11.30 ….. 197.74 ….. 5.71
31/12/2008 ….. 8.10 ….. -110.00 ….. -7.36
31/12/2009 ….. 10.52 ….. 96.64 ….. 10.89
30/12/2010 ….. 10.76 ….. 35.46 ….. 30.34
30/12/2011 ….. 9.18 ….. -21.38 ….. -42.95
31/12/2012 ….. 8.40 ….. -31.55 ….. -13.58
31/12/2013 ….. 6.36 ….. -51.99 ….. -12.23
31/12/2014 ….. 4.69 ….. -396.25 ….. -1.18
31/12/2015 ….. 4.97 ….. 117.26 ….. 4.24
30/12/2016 ….. 2.03 ….. 111.76 ….. 1.73
T4Q………….. ….. 3.56 ….. 171.03 ….. 2.08
11/8/2017 ….. 7.71 ….. 171.03 ….. 4.51


Hengyuan
Historical DY
Date……… ….. Price ….. EPS ….. DPS ….. DY
31/12/2007 ….. 11.30 ….. 197.74 ….. 0.7 ….. 0.06
31/12/2008 ….. 8.10 ….. -110.00 ….. 50.0 ….. 6.17
31/12/2009 ….. 10.52 ….. 96.64 ….. 50.0 ….. 4.75
30/12/2010 ….. 10.76 ….. 35.46 ….. 50.0 ….. 4.65
30/12/2011 ….. 9.18 ….. -21.38 ….. 40.0 ….. 4.36
31/12/2012 ….. 8.40 ….. -31.55 ….. 0.0 ….. 0.00
31/12/2013 ….. 6.36 ….. -51.99 ….. 0.0 ….. 0.00
31/12/2014 ….. 4.69 ….. -396.25 ….. 0.0 ….. 0.00
31/12/2015 ….. 4.97 ….. 117.26 ….. 0.0 ….. 0.00
30/12/2016 ….. 2.03 ….. 111.76 ….. 0.0 ….. 0.00
T4Q………….. ….. 3.56 ….. 171.03 ….. 0.0 ….. 0.00
11/8/2017 ….. 7.71 ….. 171.03 ….. 0.0 ….. 0.00


From 2007 to 2016
Total EPS -52.31
Total DPS 190.70


Hengyuan
Historical P/NAPS
Date……… ….. Price ….. NAPS ….. P/NAPS ….. P/RPS
31/12/2007 ….. 11.30 ….. 8.02 ….. 1.41 ….. 0.30
31/12/2008 ….. 8.10 ….. 6.40 ….. 1.27 ….. 0.19
31/12/2009 ….. 10.52 ….. 6.99 ….. 1.50 ….. 0.35
30/12/2010 ….. 10.76 ….. 6.97 ….. 1.54 ….. 0.31
30/12/2011 ….. 9.18 ….. 6.18 ….. 1.49 ….. 0.25
31/12/2012 ….. 8.40 ….. 2.90 ….. 1.48 ….. 0.09
31/12/2013 ….. 6.36 ….. 5.04 ….. 1.26 ….. 0.13
31/12/2014 ….. 4.69 ….. 1.08 ….. 4.33 ….. 0.10
31/12/2015 ….. 4.97 ….. 2.26 ….. 2.20 ….. 0.16
30/12/2016 ….. 2.03 ….. 3.21 ….. 0.60 ….. 0.07
T4Q………….. ….. 3.56 ….. 4.25 ….. 0.84 ….. 0.11
11/8/2017 ….. 7.71 ….. 4.25 ….. 1.81 ….. 0.24

I look at the information provided by uncle 3iii and i need analyse carefully bcos this will affect my decision to whether to continue to hold my hengyuan or sell quickly.

This because i am one of the beneficiary to stockraider early recommendation on the share as my cost is around Rm 2.00.
If i sale now it will make some big profit, but should i continue to hold as advocated by some sifu for even higher return or should i just sale as recommended by the bear side sifu, take my money and run ?

I find many sifu in i3 for example like raider, probability, paperlane, otb and Koonyewyin, all had contributed to the success of Hengyuan & its good share price run up.

I remember, it was sifu raider who alerted me from his posting recommendation, when it was Rm 2.00 about 8 months back.
It is because of his posting, i invested my savings in Hengyuan & it never disappointed me ever since.

Then probability taught me the business aspect of refinery, that i will never forget. The importance of crack spreads and crude oil prices.

Paperlane taught me the importance of confident in my investment and to think big.

Mr Koon and Mr OTB taught me the art of sailang, when the stock is undervalue like when it has very low pe 2x to 3x and the potential of stocks with very good earnings prospect.

I am very thankful to all these sifu for helping me to make money in hengyuan. Without them, i could not be successful.

Finally i am grateful to i3investors for providing the platform.
I hope all the sifu recommendation of dumb dumb hold will on Hengyuan will bring further success going forward.

I check with my cousin working in Petron, according to him the refinery margin had double since beginning of year.

He says refinery should report very good result.

I ask my cousin should i switch my Hengyuan to Petron, he says no because both will report very good profit,

He think Hengyuan, profit will be better than Petron, because of more efficient and having a bigger refinery capacity.

JCY is one of my pick for technology exposure.
But it did not perform when compare to the rest of technology stock recording 50% to 200% gain for the past 1 year.

The owner solace i get is dividend of Rm 0.0125 per quarter non stop.

This stock badly manage.
Even announce corporate exercise with bonus and free warrant cannot move.
Unless got new takeover then got hope .

The question is should i cut loss or stay ?

If i cut loss should i dump all the proceeds into hengyuan,which have given me very good return todate ?

this bjc i invested alot of money,yet todate still lose .
Alot of counters had been running up for the past 7 months, what happen to this share ?

I read one investment book which advice me to benchmark my current investment stock against the stock i tempted to buy.

So i benchmark my hengyuan and compare all the stock i wanted to buy for the past 5 months, as a result i did not buy any, because i cannot find any stock better than hengyuan basing on undervaluation, good prospect and strong earnings.

Using this stock as a benchmark help me avoid potential losses .

Hengyuan today is my biggest investment.

I read all articles here, i find sifu stockraider comment make sense.
I have been holding hengyuan since 9 mths ago and when the price move up, i tempted to sale because make so much already.

Luckily, i did not thanks for all the sifu advice .
I feel the sifu advise is very good, just wait for another 1 month for the result out, then to decide, this will help me get bigger gain.

No need to sale so early, Mr Koon mentioned TP Rm 15.90 i think he cannot be so far off track.

Mr Aseng,

I am still young and still learning investment.
I am sorry for being too proud of my Hengyuan pick, i can never imagine such a good performance.
As a greenhorn just started working, i need to continue investing in order to build my assets, people say just work full time is not enough for my future financial needs.

i thank god for guiding me.

i have only good words for hengyuan.

Many sifu i admired had invested in this company like;

paperlane
probability
icon888
stockraider
koonyewyin
ooi teik bee

i think with many sifu endorsement,i am very confident on this stock.
Going forward should give good return.

For me hengyuan is my savior and guardian angel.
I just started investment not that long, lucky my hengyuan pick give me extremely good return.
out of 4 stock i pick, this one give more than 250% return in less than 9 months.
This stock performance matched the top IT stock return.

i invested in shell when it was around rm 2.00, todate it is my top performing stock.

The payout of hengyuan stock is big if you get the investment strategy right.

More than 25% of my money is in hengyuan now.

i see the management team are competent, just that they are marathon runner than sprinter.

1. It has complete business in the fibreboard segment with Mdf, particle board, Rta.

2. It has complete integration of business from rubber plantation, glue manufacturing, particle board, mdf and rta.

3. It has manufacturing business in all the major producing countries of thailand, malaysia and indonesia.

4. It has export presence in many countries like south east asia, middle east, north east asia and europe.

5. It has huge manufacturing facilities this are valuable because to replicate it , u need very huge capex in today money term.

They are rationalizing cost, moving to higher value product like rta, and controlling strategic source of raw material supply.
Thus, profit will come in 3rd and 4th qtr.

fundamentally this evergreen can support fair value of rm 1.36, a good profit opportunity as both fa and ta indicator says go up.

the research findings indicate the 3rd quarter and 4th quarter of evergreen result will be strong as particle board and rta business takeoff.

The high raw material price will comedown because, of better weather in indonesia, thailand and malaysia.

evergreen run up is coming strongly, it is beginning of a very bullish trend, target is rm 1.19.

I have bought some Evergreen yesterday at Rm 0.815 to Rm 0.83 yesterday.
It is a good undervalue stock with dividend too.

Icon888 has given a good write up when the price is around rm 0.805.
Also stockraider has big position at cost around Rm 0.92, so i think surely at this low price it is quite safe to accumulate.

In addition malaysia government had imposed export ban on rubber wood, which is very good for evergreen.
Their particleboard business, when kick off 2nd half this year will contribute Rm 100m in 2017 and rm 200m in 2018, maybe will be a catalyst for strong growth.

Middle east Qatar direct purchase from evergreen is only rm 300k, very insignificant.

Fair value i think rm 1.25.

My sifu have studied so many these type of company with concentration of customer....his conclusion, if it is rightly manage it is a success.

example;

1. Classic scenic doing extra welll with single customer.
2. Tienwah with BAT also did very well
3. Hengyuan servicing just Shell company
4. YTL power service tenaga national.
5. Gamuda with their MRT project
6.Dufu service western digital & seagate

All the above indicates the concentration of customer....but they still did well.

If u examine FLB, this company ever since it is listed, it has done extraordinary well, with its profit growing and it is link to real hard solid cash generation every year building up.

The business sheet has been strengthening, now with such a fine realiable supporter, why take risk to switch to another supplier ?

Thus i say concentration of customer, not only all risk but there is a good opportunity too.

Btw Out of Rm 1.60 you invest in FLB, rm 0.90 per share of flb is real cash and balance rm 0.70 is operating assets which generate Rm 15 to 25 million pa or eps of rm 0.15 to 25 pa per share.

Berjaya corp give 1 sen dividend every year.

One of my strong pick is berjaya corp.
This company beside has gambling business, also has great undervalue properties, very sizeable too.

i think better don't do anything, until got the 31-12-2016 result of csc.
Bcos not certain, csc can perform.

wau!! gohku a newbies ranked number 3, not bad for an early learner.

I support kc, bcos i have learn alot from him, on investment, much more than what i have studied in the university.

Kc pls continue your good effort.

I think this year, Benalec will improve tremendously because they have more prime land available for sale in melaka.

In addition, the business from Tanjung Piai will pick up and Tg pengerang is on its on the way.

Thus Benalec current depress price will recover back to rm 0.60 to rm 0.70 level going forward.

Wah shell up everyday.
At this price still can chase ?

I thought the selangor race course deal off bcos change govt ?

Ok Mr OTB,

Sorry

It is an error, i actually mean Mr Tan.

margin of safety...100% ikut.....margin account- no way nak ikut kyy...cun cun nak mati cepat kalau ikut kyy...kalau ikut kaedah kyy yang semakin nyanyuk boleh menempah maut dan mengalami kerugian besar...bila-bila masa saham boleh jatuh macam xinquan dan jaya tiasa kalau terlampau yakin...kaedah yan lebih selamat dan konservatif ikut cara warren buffetts...ada jaminan sebab ikut "margin of safety method".....setiap tahun dapat gaji dari saham dividen dan peningkatan nilai saham...."Selamat menyambut tahun baru 2017"...

I like to clarify Xinguan and Jaya Tiasa, KYY had not discover Golden Rule yet.

Mr OTB,

Where you get the info, that you are the organiser ?
I thought it is MR Tan and with the help of paperlane ?

I hope this misunderstanding cleared.

For a start, this parallel competition will try to admit as many participants as possible.

My initial target is 100 participants, but can be more if they are overwhelming demand.

Lets go for it.

Parallel Stock picking competition for 2017
Posted by gohku at Dec 31, 2016 11:42 PM | Report Abuse

I will suggest; for those who fail to get into the mainstream stock competition, run by OTB and Paperlane, you may join gohku in this parallel stock competition for 2017.

To make it simple, the rules will run on the same basis as the mainstream.

I urge you to join ,if you are interested.

The closing date is 2-1-2017, 1.00 pm.

Paperlane,

It is okay, the parallel 2017 competition still can track main stream.

You may surprise the return from here, may even beat the mainstream, who knows ?

Even 2015 champion, did not get admitted to the competition.
I hope imoogi99, can join us here, if he still cannot get a place.

We welcome champion.

Posted by imoogi99 > Dec 31, 2016 11:45 PM | Report Abuse

I was 2015 winners but guess Mr Tan didnt allocate seats for me. Guess have to skip 2017.

Mr Paperlane/Mr Tan,

Last year there is 72 participants, this year how come only 50 participants ?

I would expect at least 72 participants at least or even 120 participants for 2017.

The objective is getting more people interested in investment, please do consider newbies like me, who have submitted on time.

Dear Mr. Tan,

I would like to join and my pick as below:

reach-w 20%
bjcorp- 20%
Tafi- 20%
JCY- 20%
Shell-20%

Thank you

To kickstart I submit the first entry here.