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2014-11-25 22:25 | Report Abuse
LONDON (Nov 25): Some commodity fund managers believe oil prices could slide to US$60 per barrel if OPEC does not agree a significant output cut when it meets in Vienna this week.
Brent crude futures have fallen by a third since June, touching a four-year low of US$76.76 a barrel on Nov 14.
They could tumble further if OPEC does not agree to cut at least one million barrels per day (bpd), according to some commodity fund managers' forecasts.
"The market would question the credibility of OPEC and its influence on global oil markets if there was no cut," said Daniel Bathe, of Lupus Alpha Commodity Invest Fund.
That could send Brent down to around US$60, Bathe said.
"Herding behaviour and a shift to net negative speculative positions should accelerate the price plunge," he said.
Yet fund managers and brokerage analysts are divided over whether OPEC will reach an agreement on cutting output.
Bathe put the likelihood at no more than 50 percent.
Oil prices have been falling since the summer due to abundant supply, partly from US shale oil, and because of low demand growth, particularly in Europe and Asia.
As a result, some investors believe a small cut of around 500,000 bpd would not be enough to calm the markets.
Doug King, chief investment officer of RCMA Capital, sees Brent falling to US$70 per barrel even with a cut of one million bpd.
"With this, I would expect lower prices in the first half of 2015," he said.
If OPEC fails to agree a cut, prices will drop "further and quite quickly", with US crude possibly sliding to US$60, he said.
US crude closed at US$76.51 on Friday, with Brent just above US$80.
'Oil war'
With member states struggling to balance budgets, many OPEC countries will be pushing for an output cut when OPEC meets in Vienna on Nov 27.
"Prices below US$80 are putting significant strain on the cartel's weakest members such as Venezuela," said Nicolas Robin, a commodities fund manager at Threadneedle.
He said a bigger cut, of one million bpd or more, was an "outlier scenario" but said such a move could rapidly push prices above US$85.
"A move higher would likely be accelerated by the lack of liquidity owing to the US (Thanksgiving) holiday next week," Robin added.
Doug Hepworth of Gresham Investment Management said bigger cut was needed to lift prices.
"A surprise significant cut, say of two million bpd, is needed to push prices back up to US$80. And that would have to be accompanied by some newfound discipline in the non-Saudi members," Hepworth said.
The market has been awash with conspiracy theories as to why Saudi Arabia has not already intervened.
New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman hinted at "a global oil war under way pitting the United States and Saudi Arabia on one side against Russia and Iran on the other".
Hepworth argued that Saudi Arabia appeared pretty happy with current pricing levels and suggested they were waiting to see where the cut-off point for US production was.
"Time is on their side, they can afford to wait," he said, stressing he was talking months, not years, but added if oil fell below US$70 that waiting time "shrinks to weeks".
Tom Nelson, of Investec Global Energy Fund, said he believed Saudi Arabia had allowed the price to fall to incentivise smaller OPEC producers, which often rely on the biggest producer to intervene, to join Riyadh in cutting output.
"They (the Saudis) want to cut but they don't want to cut alone," Nelson said, adding that a cut of between one million and 1.5 million bpd should be sufficient to balance the market.
"The market really wants to see that OPEC is still functioning ... if there is a small cut, with an accompanying statement of coherence from OPEC that presents a united front, and talks about seeing demand recovery, and some moderation of supply growth, then Brent could move up to US$80-US$90."
2014-11-25 22:16 | Report Abuse
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1804913
free warrant and quarterly profit!!!
2014-11-25 20:49 | Report Abuse
this stock is already undervalue for a while...it will definitely up...1st TP 0.35 ....0.60...1.00...mazlin will be bringing in more revenue once officially join daya...reach energy remains a spac company without business...
2014-11-25 16:55 | Report Abuse
pushing the price down to collect low lar...just keep buying
2014-11-25 14:56 | Report Abuse
fundhouse want to buy cheap...baiting those fellas to throw them hahah
2014-11-25 14:55 | Report Abuse
Kenneth...with the dividend...the TP will be 3.50
2014-11-25 14:40 | Report Abuse
affin already 1 year lowest...sell to me now!....I want to earn all the dividend muahaha...
2014-11-25 14:20 | Report Abuse
yeahh...now the price is the best time to enter..to gain the dividend
2014-11-25 14:08 | Report Abuse
they want to buy from you cheap!...at times like this...0.15 dividend is awesome....stay away from oil n gas stock at the moment..
2014-11-25 11:14 | Report Abuse
this is even cheaper than umwog (3.21) that only give you a miserable RM10 for dividend.....this is a good buy
2014-11-24 17:24 | Report Abuse
this counter is only good for intraday trading...in any short term...not recommended unless u planned to keep long long term..congrats to those who earn...those who are trapped...goodluck!
2014-11-24 17:02 | Report Abuse
syndicate already main cukup cukup this counter...besok target lain counter...
2014-11-24 16:46 | Report Abuse
closing already...still buy meh...mau mati lor
2014-11-24 16:37 | Report Abuse
PUMP AND DUMP...GAMEOVER..keep averaging your price u dig deeper into the hole
2014-11-22 22:26 | Report Abuse
yeah u all say all the good things..but come monday hopefully get to throw fast before the price drop below 0.40...
2014-11-22 07:14 | Report Abuse
no diesel subsidy will hurt all the buses...
2014-11-21 23:06 | Report Abuse
omg..safe??...u must be in dreamland...monday 1st TP 0.450....then 0.40...lastly 0.380
2014-11-21 21:38 | Report Abuse
haha...any selling was quickly push back?...please lar...don't sin kar lan...volume only 794,100 ...just accept the fact...no buying interest over this counter in near term...
2014-11-21 19:02 | Report Abuse
no fuel subsidy ...game over for dsonic....subsidy cannot work in this environment
2014-11-21 17:52 | Report Abuse
huggy...yeah..im moving down south on your momma ...she was moaning like a whore...thats why she had u as her retarded son..and u still huggy to her milk like a leech..hahaha..
2014-11-21 16:57 | Report Abuse
uptrend intact....next Monday going to break 0.30
2014-11-21 16:36 | Report Abuse
HOLD ON TIGHT GUYS...RIDE IT
2014-11-21 16:23 | Report Abuse
BROKEN NEW RESISTANT...MONDAY 0.300 LIMIT UPP
2014-11-21 14:59 | Report Abuse
quick average up...this is a 0.30 stock ....broken resistant today...Monday will fly further
2014-11-20 09:35 | Report Abuse
let him earn 1 cent la...hahah...
2014-11-19 21:33 | Report Abuse
haha okok kingcobra....we dont care whether u r cobra, worm...or even a bug.....dont angry...we know you bought alot of tuneins stock...we wish u goodluck ok...cheers...
2014-11-19 18:29 | Report Abuse
yktay1 ...you are not getting the point here....the fundhouse is the major shareholder...and they tell retail investors to buy while they are selling down...you r the stoopid moron...either u r the anaylst or the analyst colleagues
2014-11-19 17:30 | Report Abuse
be patient...good news coming...else the director wont keep buying...
2014-11-19 17:29 | Report Abuse
kingcobra...so did tuneins shoot up today?...or did the analyst shot his sperm into your mouth...?....hahaha sohaii
2014-11-19 15:45 | Report Abuse
hari ini sudah bayar brokerage....biar aunty uncle average down price la...tapi kalau average when it is on a downtrend...besok pun bungkus....masuk longkang...haha
2014-11-19 10:27 | Report Abuse
he is buying because there will be positive news announcement coming...keep buying...
2014-11-19 10:25 | Report Abuse
good news coming!!!...better buy...now
2014-11-17 21:27 | Report Abuse
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/article/falling-oil-prices-prompts-petronas-review-rm300-bil-capex-allocation
reason why foreign investor sell off
2014-11-17 19:28 | Report Abuse
no catalyst..going south tomorrow
2014-11-17 19:27 | Report Abuse
pressing down the price to kill contra players and collect more..you think AMMB hold so much for what..
2014-11-17 17:25 | Report Abuse
all the news is just to con you guys...oil prices will continue to fall...wait at 0.40
2014-11-17 16:49 | Report Abuse
bkyh...if u worry...imagine the director and AMMB...bought since 0.30
2014-11-17 16:49 | Report Abuse
don't worry la...the business is still running...it is not oil and gas...it is cooking oil!...one of the largest in China
2014-11-17 16:11 | Report Abuse
that's why this tells you something...its new low and time to buy more..
Stock: [SAPNRG]: SAPURA ENERGY BERHAD
2014-11-26 08:36 | Report Abuse
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-gains-ahead-of-opec-meeting-2014-11-25
NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—Oil futures slumped to their lowest close in more than four years Tuesday, as traders grew more doubtful the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will deliver meaningful` production cuts when cartel officials meet later this week.
Nymex WTI crude for January delivery CLF5, -0.32% dropped $1.69, or 2.2%, to close at $74.09 a barrel, the lowest finish for a most-active futures contract since September 2010. ICE January Brent LCOF5, -1.90% dropped $1.35, or 1.7%, to $78.33 a barrel.
The tone was set in mid-morning trade after a meeting of energy officials from four major oil-producing countries failed to reach an agreement on output cuts. Oil briefly pared losses after The Wall Street Journal said OPEC was inching toward a compromise on production cuts, but support soon gave way, leaving oil to set new lows.
For now, skeptics who think OPEC will largely stand pat seem to be in the driver’s seat.
“If OPEC’s strategy really is patience, then the cartel’s Nov. 27 meeting may produce either no cut or only a small reduction,” of around 500,000 barrels a day, said Paul Christopher, chief international strategist at Wells Fargo Advisers.
Supply and demand can rebalance at prices above current levels, Christopher said, in a note, but the process may be slow. Christopher said he now sees Nymex WTI crude ending 2015 in the $88-to-$92-a-barrel range, down from an earlier estimate of $97 to $102.
Oil came under pressure after news reports said a meeting of officials from Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Russia’s OAO Rosneft failed to achieve a compromise on oil.
Reports said the officials agreed to meet again in three months to discuss oil markets. Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer, and Mexico, the tenth-largest, aren’t OPEC members.