Bertam Alliance (BERT MK)
Technical BUY with +17.5% potential return
Last price : RM1.14
Target Price : RM1.27, RM1.34
Support : RM1.06
Stop-loss: RM1.05
BUY with a target price of RM1.34 with stoploss
below RM1.05. Following our earlier BUY
call on 8 Apr 14 at the price of RM0.780,
BERT’s share price has climbed up to exceed
our initial target and has gained 46.2%. We
expect the share price to move higher following
a successful rebound from the previous
resistance, which now acts as the immediate
support at RM1.06. Additionally, an uptick in
RSI and a bullish crossover in DMI signal a
surge in momentum which in turn may
translate into a stronger uptrend in the near
term. As such, we expect another up-leg from
here onwards as we peg our target at the
1.61x Fibonacci extension level of RM1.34.
Expected Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months

downgrade lol pochi

alphajack Now is season of discovery for undervalued property small cap stocks. Besides SHL, the only counter that is better than it is Plenitude. I would rank OSK PROP = SHL. But Plenitude...is very very undervalued. RM3.04 now but NTA- around RM5.50. TQ

any others????

today already 23,,,so far no firing yet

oh old stories

Learn our stock picks:https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-secret-of-short-term-trading-on-klse-stocks-tickets-10718141249

nothing is there on the link,

it s ok i will wait, thanks for the response, leon7

leon7 ---- if you are online now, and already received the pdf,,then please also send to me a copy. thanks

Angiepretty ---are you staff of mudajaya??? send if possible your mobile no..thank you very much

end of july is nearing already,,where is that FIRING

K-One Technology
(KONE MK)
Technical BUY with +13.6% potential return
Last price : RM0.425
Target Price : RM0.445, RM0.495
Support : RM0.400
Stop-loss: RM0.390
BUY with a target price of RM0.495 with stoploss
below RM0.390. KONE’s share price
continues to rise along the “cloud” as the share
price has been consolidating in the bullish
continuation pattern of “ascending triangle” in
the past 10 weeks. Given yesterday’s closing
above both the 10-day and 21-day SMA lines,
we expect the share price to climb further and
make a breakout above the immediate
resistance of RM0.445 and the upper band of
the “triangle” pattern. This is consistent with the
renewed interest as seen in the higher trading
volume, as well as a surge in momentum as
flashed by positive readings in both MACD and
Stochastic, which should translate into upward
movement in the near term. We peg our upside
target at the 1.38x Fibonacci extension level of
RM0.495 over the medium term.
Expected Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months

Silk Holdings (SIB MK)
Technical BUY with +20.0% potential return
Last price : RM1.10
Target Price : RM1.20, RM1.32
Support : RM1.00
Stop-loss: RM0.99
BUY with a target price of RM1.32 with stoploss
below RM0.99. SIB’s share price has
been rising along the upward sloping 10-day
and 21-day SMA lines since 9 May 14.
Following a successful breakout above the
psychological level of RM1.00, SIB hit a new
high at RM1.15 before yesterday’s profit-taking
activity pulled down the share price slightly.
However, we expect upward continuation from
here onwards as yesterday’s blip can be
considered a normal “return move” after the
previous day’s breakout. Given the positive
MACD and Stochastic readings, the surge in
momentum should help to lift the share price
higher in the near term. We peg our upside
target at the 1.38x Fibonacci extension level of
RM1.32.
Expected Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months

CB Industrial Product
(CBP MK)
Technical BUY with +13.0% potential return
Last price : RM4.61
Target Price : RM4.80, RM5.23
Support : RM4.33
Stop-loss: RM4.28
BUY with a target price of RM5.23 with stoploss
at below RM4.28. CBP’s share price has
consolidated in the past 3 months after
entering correction mode from the recent high
of RM4.80. The share price established
support at RM4.33 before recovering gradually
and rising above the short-term downtrend line
yesterday. The positive closing above the
“cloud” on the back of a higher trading volume
of 0.85m shares (vs 20-day average of 0.2m)
signifies the creation of a new up-leg. Given
the bullish crossover recorded in both MACD
and Stochastic, we expect to see a stronger
momentum lift the share price higher and
restart its long-term uptrend. Moving forward,
we peg our next target at the 1.38x Fibonacci
extension level of RM5.23.
Expected Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months

ok guys the above is CIMB latest sector report on consumer staples sector..for your pleassure reading

Sector top pick is QL

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Higher A&P expenses to boost
sales volume
In light of weaker consumer spending and saturating alcohol
consumption in the country, we foresee a tough operating environment
for GAB. Its aggressive launch of new products will have minimal
impact on its bottomline as product launches entail A&P spending.

Weak demand, higher operating costs,
saturating consumption levels and the
higher incidence of contraband add
up to a tough operating environment
for GAB. Its dividend yield of
4.4-4.7% seems low for the risks taken.
We maintain our Reduce call while
lowering our DCF-based target price
as we increase our beta assumption to
be more in line with its beta. Switch to
F&B or REITs for yields.
Poor consumption and higher
A&P cost hit 3Q
GAB performed worse than Carlsberg
in the quarter ending Mar, with
revenue dropping by 15.8% and net
profit plunging by 41.9% yoy due to
weak consumption and high
advertising and promotion expenses.
Despite the environment of weaker
consumption, GAB will continue to
invest in A&P in the hope that each
dollar spent will translate into better
sales volume.
More new products in the
pipeline
GAB has launched two new super
premium products in the past few
months – Kirin Beer in Mar/Apr and
Sminoff in Jun. Apart from these new
products, we understand that GAB
plans to roll out two more new
products in the premium segment in
FY15. A&P expenses are expected to
remain high in FY15 due to the
committed new launches.
4Q results will remain weak
GAB’s 4QFY6/14 results could be
weaker yoy due to poor consumption
and high A&P expenses. While the
company is launching premium
products aggressively, new products
take time to gain recognition and their
impact on the bottomline will be
minimal for now. Furthermore,
Carlsberg which has a larger premium
product portfolio is stronger in the
premium segment.

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Getting tougher
BAT faces an uphill task domestically due to the increase in excise duty
and weaker consumer spending. Its contract manufacturing is also
experiencing declining volumes. JTI is also expected to be a more
aggressive competitor now that it is a private entity.

Given the dim outlook, we maintain
our Reduce rating on BAT. The
operating environment going forward
will be tough due to the weaker
consumer spending and high illicit
trade. Its dividend yield is also not
compelling in view of the risks. Switch
to F&B or REITs for yields.
High selling price dampens
sales volume...
Industry sales volumes have been
weak due to the increase in excise
duties as consumers downtrade to
cheaper alternatives, typically illicit
cigarettes. The excise duty increase in
Sep, two years after the last hike,
further dampened sales, especially
since consumers are now also facing
higher living costs due to the
impending implementation of the
GST and the likelihood of gradual
subsidy cuts. To recap, the
government unexpectedly announced
a sharp 14% increase in excise duty in
Sep 2013 and BAT responded by
raising its selling prices – the third
time in 11 months – by RM1.50 per
pack for both premium and
value-for-money (VFM) segments.
...But helped to increase net
profit
The sharp increase in selling prices
indeed helped to improve profit. In
1QFY14, while its domestic and
contract manufacturing volumes fell
by 7.9% and 23% yoy, respectively, its
net profit rose 10.4% yoy against a
revenue increase of 5.3% yoy.
Expect tough road ahead
Although sales volume improved qoq,
this could be due to the government’s
initial effort to clamp down the illicit
market between Mar and May 2014.
With the weakening consumer
spending and the impending GST
implementation, which may raise
cigarettes prices, we think sales
volume has more downside risks than
upside potential. While selling price
increase could bump up profits in the
near term, it is not a long term
solution as any price increase will
cause the illicit cigarettes to spike up.
Furthermore, we believe that as JTI
has been taken private, will be more
aggressive in fighting for market share,
putting more pressure on BAT.

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8.4 Maintain Underweight on tobacco sector
The tobacco industry shares the fate of the brewery industry, possibly an even
worse one. The industry volumes of licit cigarettes have been declining since
2006 due to illicit trade and higher excise duty as the government aims to curb
smoking. The record price increase in Oct last year exacerbated the situation.
Fortunately, the tobacco players managed to offset the lower sales volume with
higher selling prices. While increasing selling prices seems like the only way to
improve profit for now, it is not a long term solution as any price increase will
cause illicit trade to spike up which in turn will further hurt the sales volumes.
We do not see signs of recovery for the tobacco industry unless the government
successfully clamps down on the illicit market or stops raising excise duty,
which we believe is unlikely. Furthermore, JTI which was delisted recently is
likely to become more aggressive to gain market share as it has more leeway to
do so as a private company. This will make it even more difficult for BAT. BAT’s
dividend yield, which is lower than its historical yield and the yields offered by
the REITs, is also too low for the risks. Hence, we maintain an Underweight
rating on the sector and a Reduce recommendation on BAT. We recommend a
switch to F&B stocks or REITs for better yields

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8. VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION
8.1 Maintain Neutral on overall consumer sector
In this report, we recommend investors to switch from brewery and
tobacco sectors to the more resilient F&B sector. In a challenging
consumer spending environment, we think that beer, which is regarded as a
discretionary item, will be impacted while F&B companies’ earnings are
expected to remain resilient. Although we believe that the demand for cigarettes
is rather inelastic, volumes of licit cigarettes are likely to be impacted as
smokers downtrade to cheaper illicit cigarettes.
Hence, we are now Overweight (previously Neutral) on F&B and Underweight
on Brewery (previously Neutral) and Tobacco (unchanged) and Neutral on
Retail. Due to the reasons mentioned above, we expect F&B companies to
outperform the brewery, tobacco and retail companies. Brewery and tobacco
companies will be the worst hit while the retail companies are likely to witness
some short term-negative impact from the slower consumer spending.
Overall, we remain Neutral on the consumer sector as we expect the spending to
continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate which will mainly impact the sales of
discretionary items. For dividend yields, we recommend investors to switch to
REITs which offer much better dividend yields and yet have better earnings
resiliency than the tobacco and brewery sectors.

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36

Foreigners are generally allowed to open all types of retail formats in the
country. The main exceptions are (1) supermarket/minimarket (less than 3k sq
m floor area), (2) provision shop/general vendor, (3) convenience store that
opens for business for 24 hours, (4) medical hall, (5) fuel station with
convenience store or without convenience store, (6) permanent wet market
store, and (7) textile, restaurant (non-exclusive), bistro and jewellery shops

7. SUBSECTOR OUTLOOK - Discretionary Retail – Neutral
7.1 Some short term impact
In tandem with our expectation that consumer spending will continue to grow
but at a slower rate, we expect retail sales to register positive growth but at a
slower rate than the 4.5% achieved in 2013. The spending cut is mainly expected
to affect the discretionary products which will impact the retailers which are
involved in selling discretionary items, especially the luxury segment retailers.
In 2008-09, during the economic crisis, companies involved in selling
necessities posted consistent profit growth while the companies selling
discretionary items were impacted negatively. We think that the negative impact
will be milder this time given the stronger consumer sentiment as compared to
the sentiment in 2008-09, strong growth in household income in the past few
years and the healthy employment rate. Additionally, the expansion plans in
place and the lessons learnt during the last economic crisis which led to closing
down of non-performing stores, changing of business models and better
discounting strategies will help to mask the negative impact of slower consumer
spending and drive earnings growth.
7.2 More competition within the retail space
Aside from the slower consumer spending, retailers also need to brace for
higher competition within the industry, thanks to the huge shopping mall
supply in the Klang Valley where retailers are competing with each other to have
as much presence as possible.

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6.2 Rise in commodity prices not an issue if gradual
Commodity prices started to soften recently which will bode well for the F&B
companies. Even if raw material prices on the uptrend, we are not overly
concerned as the companies can pass on the cost easily. Despite the high raw
material prices in 2010-12, Nestle and QL have been posting quite resilient
EBITDA margins. QL’s selling prices depend on market forces and raw material
costs, i.e. its selling prices normally fluctuate in tandem with raw material prices.
Nestle and F&N adjust the prices for some of their bestselling products to cover
the overall cost increase when raw material prices go up.

6. SUBSECTOR OUTLOOK- Food and Beverage – Upgrade to
Overweight
6.1 No large concern for F&B companies
We believe that F&B companies such as Nestle, F&N and QL Resources will not
be affected substantially by the higher living cost. For Nestle and F&N, we
believe they can sustain their earnings growth by engaging in more A&P
activities. This is because their products are necessities. When there are
promotions, we believe that consumers will still stock up.
Between Nestle and F&N, we think that Nestle will be more resilient than F&N
given that Nestle’s products such as dairy products, cooking aids and biscuits
are supportive of healthy lifestyles as opposed to the soft drinks sold by F&N.
Furthermore, consumers may eat out less frequently which could affect F&N’s
condensed milk business. As for QL, its eggs and surimi-based products are
cheap and are basic necessities that consumers need in good times and bad.
Furthermore, 40% of its surimi products are exported and will not be impacted
by the slower domestic consumer spending.

5.4 JTI to be more aggressive after going private
JTI was taken private recently at an offer price of RM8.20/share. The rationale
for the move is the need for JTI to strengthen its position by investing heavily,
which will reduce the cashflow available for distribution to the shareholders.
This is a strong signal that JTI will be much more aggressive in order to gain
market share after it is taken private. This points to a more difficult time ahead
for BAT which is already operating in a tough environment.
5.5 A sunset industry – Maintain Underweight
We believe that industry volume will continue to be weak given the expected
weaker consumer spending. This is not helped by the higher availability of illicit
cigarettes due to higher demand from smokers looking for cheaper alternatives.
Even without a slowdown in consumer spending, we think that this industry is a
sunset industry given the government’s continuous efforts to clamp down on
smoking. Other than 2012, industry volume has been on a downtrend since
2006. In a declining volume environment, the only way to increase net profit is
to increase selling prices but this is not a long term solution for now as any price
increase will cause illicit trade to spike. In light of the risks and the dividend
yield which is insufficient to compensate for the risks taken, we maintain a
Reduce on BAT and an Underweight on the industry.

5.3 Smokers said to downtrade
Based on a survey conducted by us recently, 52% of the smokers will smoke less
due to the higher selling prices. Though 34% said that the price increase will not
affect them, double the number said that they will smoke less or downtrade,
which suggests that industry volume will continue to decline. With the
expectation that living expenses will increase, the possibility of this happening is
even greater.

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5.2 Price increase is the only way to increase net profit but it
is not a long-term solution
In a declining industry volume situation, price increase seems to be the only way
to increase net profit for now but this is not a long term solution. After the price
increases in end-2013, illicit cigarettes became more prevalent as smokers
looked for cheaper alternatives. Its market share jumped 4.5% pts in Oct-Dec
2014 to 38.9%. To tackle this, the government recently tightened the
enforcement and came out with new strategies to seize the illicit cigarette
distributors. Under the “Ops outlet” operation spanning March to May 2014, we
understand that the government seized 131m illicit sticks worth RM7.1m in
value and RM66.6m in tax from 999 outlets and 686 outlets’ owners. This
helped to bump up the legal volume substantially in 1Q14 (Figure 57).

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4.8 CAB could be more vulnerable to slower spending
We believe that Carlsberg which has 40% market share will be more vulnerable
to the slower consumer spending than Guinness (60% market share) as it has
higher exposure to the off-trade channel domestically, for which demand is
more elastic. We believe that consumers in the off-trade channel are more
sensitive to rising living costs and there is more impulse buying in the off-trade
channel than the on-trade segment where customers are heavier drinkers and
have higher spending power.
However, in the on-trade channel, Carlsberg’s higher sales contribution from
the traditional channel will also make it more vulnerable. Although the on-trade
traditional channel commands higher margin, business is generally slowing
down due to the influx of modern pubs.

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4.6 Dividend yields too low for the risks
Guinness and Carlsberg currently offer dividend yields of 4-5%. Although this
represents a premium over MGS’ 3.9%, the KLCI average of 3.3% and consumer
stocks’ (under our coverage) 1-4%, we think that the brewers should offer higher
yields as the downside earnings risks for them are greater, especially now that
the industry is facing volume pressure from slowing consumer spending, higher
availability of contraband and saturated consumption levels. The current
dividend yields offered by the companies are also low compared to their
respective historical yields.

4.5 Persistent regulatory risks
The industry was spared an excise duty hike for the eighth consecutive year in
2014. While we note that excise duty hikes only accounted for 4.4% of the
government’s total indirect tax collection in 2013 and thus the government may
be less tempted to raise the excise duty on beer, we are still concerned that the
government may decide to raise it to increase its tax revenue to help it address
the budget deficit, especially since the industry has been spared for eight years.
In 2004-06 when the excise duty was raised for three consecutive years, the
industry volume dropped by 5-7% despite the fact that the contraband and
saturation levels were lower at that time.

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4.3 Little impact from the lower raw material prices
Although malt and wheat prices have declined in the past few months, the
higher operating costs from higher electricity tariffs and natural gas prices will
partially offset the benefit of the lower raw material costs. Furthermore, the
companies usually lock in raw material prices 6-18 months in advance.

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