Estimate public free float share is around 50m after stripping out top 30 largest shareholder. Based on yesterday and today volume, estimate 40% exchange hand among other minority shareholders, limited free float available for those fund willing to increase their stake holding before value re rate to PE 10x

Take note PBA domestic water traffic is 2rnd lowest among all state. PBA still heavily subsidies domestic water user albeit at lower amount RM 56m compared to RM 110m before traffic adjustment. PBA have further give away free 10m3 to all domestic user for 6 months, give rise to total subsidy RM 56m + additional subsidy RM 11m.

Therefore, PBA have huge room for water traffic hike in next 3 year review and increase profit later can specially aim for targeted poor household rebate instead of to all domestic user in future.

More water traffic hike is necessary as PBA need to built more water treatment plant increase water suuply from current 890MLD to maximum level 1350 MLD by 2030.

Thereafter, additional water supply need to source from Perak-Penang water transfer after 2030, water traffic will have to hike again in line with external source of water from newly built water treatment from Perak

Many thanks

mizieXX, thanks for your previous highlight that your Penang water bill was actually start reflect new water traffic hike rate in May instead of Mar,

Finally breakout previous high level at RM 2.61. Next heading to RM 3.00 first. Uptrend confirms

High profitability also allow PBA to give targeted subsidy to poor household through rebate

High profitability is to ensure strong cash flow to fund capex to built more water treatment plant, replace old water pipe, reduce leakage for non revenue water, which in turn increase profit. It win-win cycle

banking stock surge - money making business model
PBA - money making concession business model with every 3 year traffic adjustment (first implement by current gov)

If retail shareholder known well fair PBA valuation should be PE 10x, many of these fund managers should know even better PBA value, especially judging from concession business model

Among top 30 largest shareholder, many are from unit trust fund/investment bank, insurance, Singapore fund etc. Therefore, if any of these funds increase their shareholding, PBA share can snap up very quickly

PBA share is tightly held by largest 30 shareholder, control 85%, therefore, free float share in open market is very limited.

RM 2.61 is previous high, once breakout, heading to RM 3.00 soon

:D)

Closed at RM 2.20 today, uptrend begin

Good if Perak Penang water transfer at high rate in 2030. Current Penang water traffic rate 2rd lowest among all state in Msia, with new additional intake water from perak at high rate on 2030, PBA water traffic rate can review higher in future.

Hope momentum can build up to hit limit up today

No formal dividend policy, but PBA have unbroken track record declare interim and final dividend yearly.

Perhaps, shareholders can propose PBA to set officials
dividend policy in next AGM

Penang gov also need investment return income just like many Fed gov profitable GLC companies listed in bursa

Penang gov control 69% stake in PBA. If take take private, opposition party may pressure Penang gov to give more subsidy.

Its better for PBA remain as listed company to balance interest between amount subsidy and interest of public shareholder

Water concession business earning is highly projectable if without take into account increase water consumption both domestic and non domestic sector like

+ variable: tourism arrival, new mall, hotel, factories, housing development etc

- variable such as chemical price for treated water, pipe replacement cost etc

Even after stripping capex, PBA cash hoard continue increase at RM 259m now, paving way for increase dividend to shareholder

Water concession never short of business as water is essential daily, therefore, no business risk such as forex, business competition, oversupply, geography tension etc.

PBA only need to focus on managing cost such as channel it part if it's profit to increase capex for water
pipe replacement to reduce water leak, reduce non revenue water rate, built more water treatment plant to increase water supply to meet increasing water demand growth from current 890MLD to 1350 MLD by 2030.

Upcoming Perak - Penang water transfer will further increase water supply to meet Penang water need
after 2030 ahead of full completion Penang mega project silicon island in 2032.

In next 2 Q result, PBA will deliver less EPS than current 16.6sen due to PBA is given special free first 10m3 of water to domestic water user and the impact on PBA revenue in the period from 1.7.2024 –31.12.2024 will be about RM11 million or RM 5.5m per quarter

However, these rebate is only less than 10% impact to PBA strong Pretax profit RM 58.3m, after take into account these quarter rebate, EPS still deliver 15sen forward.

added more PBA at 2.13-2.15

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2024/08/23/penang-continues-to-draw-in-more-tourists-as-direct-flights-cruises-increase/147774#:~:text=It%20was%20previously%20reported%20that,first%20quarter%20of%20this%20year.

Penang continues to draw in more tourists as direct flights, cruises increase

https://malaysia.news.yahoo.com/penang-continues-draw-more-tourists-230000544.html

https://penangport.gov.my/images/archive/2024/keratan-akhbar/BuletinMutiara29MEI2024-Over_7_million_tourists_stayed_overnight_in_Penang_hotels_last_year.pdf

cut first at 53.5-54.5sen

cut first at 1.05-1.07

Next upcoming Perak-Penang water transfer will anchor PBA to supply more treated water beyong 2030

Thanks, hope for the best for PBA.

Although Penang unlike Johor and Selangor as new Data center hub, But Penang have even bigger project, Silicon Valley island, a tech hub for Msia. In additional, Penang continue attract most direct investment on semiconductor industry and blooming tourist industry with 10 more hotel coming.

All these commercial for non domestic water user and growing population for domestic will further increase Penang water consumption by 40% from current 890 MLD to 1350 MLD by 2030

Dragon328
Thanks, same you for your YTLP. Hope PBA can catch up utilities stock valuation like TENAGA, malakroff, YTLP, RANHILL

PBA is given special free first 10m3 of water to domestic water user and impact on PBA evenue in the period from 1.7.2024 –31.12.2024 will be about RM11 million or RM 5.5m for next 2 Q.

These rebate is only less than 10% impact to PBA strong Pretax profit RM 58.3m, EPS still can deliver 15sen forward.

PBA reserve fair valuation of at least 10x in view of earning is highly projectable as water traffic hike is effective for next 3 year before subject to next review.

It unfair for PBA which deliver far more profitable water business than RANHILL and yet PBA trading at big discount valuation than Ranhill rich valuation

Limit up limit up limit up

Group revenue increased from RM111.17 million to RM150.33 million as compared to the immediate
preceding quarter. The Group registered a profit before tax of RM58.37 million as compared to the
immediate preceding quarter of RM16.40 million, primarily due to the increase of water tariffs for
domestic and other categories from 1 February 2024.

The increase in revenue is directly translate into pure profit as result domestic water traffic rate hike.

EPS =16.7sen

Super profit

Backed by extensive 5G network, Selangor to build 17 more data centres
https://selangorjournal.my/2024/08/backed-by-extensive-5g-network-selangor-to-build-17-more-data-centres/

The keyword is earning growths

The expected increase in revenue is expected to be small in the near term but the group is expecting it to grow substantially in the coming 1-2 years

JCY have standby 50% under utilization plant, therefore, if clinch new client, it can immediately boost up production next year 2025, mimic just Notion, diversified from just HDD into automotive and EMS

Penang set to build 10 more hotels

GEORGE TOWN: Penang is set to see 10 new hotels with 4,000 rooms over the next few years as the state continues to attract more tourists, says Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow.

Chow does not think there will be any issue of an oversupply of hotels in the state.

“In fact, when international conferences or conventions are held, there is often a shortage of hotel rooms. There is definitely room for more hotels to accommodate the increasing number of visitors and tourists to Penang,” he said yesterday.

Chow said this after witnessing the signing ceremony between MTT Hospitality, a division of the MTT Group of Companies and Pan Pacific Hotels Group to transform Evergreen Laurel Hotel into Gurney Bay Hotel, a Parkroyal partner hotel.

bought more pba at 1.74-1.75

Notion did hedge currency, with USD weakness, notion incur forex loss RM 1.1m in Q3 result, cumulative forex loss for 3 Q is about RM 1.2m. Next Q result may incur higher forex loss, may at RM 2m to RM 3m, but is common practice for export business and such heghe forex loss only impact small % of company earning

Notion loss making EPS, market give low Notion share price, BUT
Notion turnaround EPS and continue growing positive EPS, market should peg fair price for Notion

Market cannot simply compare notion share price before and after earning successfully turnaround

Notion have good diversified business and earning is growing, and strong cash flow and in net cash position

bought back jcy at 56-56.5sen

cut at 90-91sen, disappointed good result still unable to recover price

Fundamentally, Notion is fully supported by NTA 80sen and Net cash position with EPS growth