You are talking from recent experience only and assuming you got it right.... there are many other cases where you could hv bought into a bear trap and its same story... of course if i hv a crystal ball to tell me where the bottom is I will use margin...but I dont... so I wont take the risk...

SM is smart money. Can refer to the book by Tom Williams Master the Market to get more insight into jow the syndicates work and the concept of VSA ie Volume Spread Analysis.

I think one would need to employbstrict cut loss when using margin to avoid wipe out... It is dangerous to use in both bull and bear market....I m saying in bull market chances of making money is higher but only for short term trades to ride the bull... I just dont think buy and hold strategy will work when using margin unless your timing is perfect especially in bear market....

sunzthe, you are speaking from the perspective of someone who knows exactly wherevthe bottom is.....how will you know when the crash is over. Wht if market drop further from the point u take the margin...you re dead as well... my view is tht margin acc may be more suitable to use in bull market for short term trades.... i wouldnt dare to use margin to hold long term....just too risky....

Yes historically Q4 there is some dividend. Also it looks like Q4 is historically the best q. But the vol on the rebound has been rather low... I m still on the sidelines.

Why would the price > 3.90 tomorrow. I think its negative short term... cause the waiting period for the new offer may be longer or how sure are you that PKNP will come out with a new offer ?

I guess its sell sell sell due to the 50% drop in profit... all ppl look for is growth growth growth... i guess there will be another cheap mega sales on Monday....

I still feel that MMODE is a value buy at current price. Net cash of RM0.24 per share. That's almost 50% of its share price. Adjusted PE after subtracting net cash is only 5.3x. Can the cash position deteriorate significantly ? I dont think so, they still generate good cashflows and their cash position continue to grow and debt reduce. MMODE has had 3 years of unabated growth, reversion to the mean is inevitable. With ROIC is excess of 40-60 % last year, competition will definitely want a piece of the pie. This is just capitalism at work.. Even for now, their ROIC is still a respectable 28% selling at EV/EBIT of only 4.3x, a classic magic formula stock.

Management will either need to enlarge revenue base to arrest drop in net profit or invest more into RnD to gain back the competitive edge.

SS661M, mainboard listing will give more exposure... some fund managers have no mandate to buy ACE companies but that may change once it moves to main board.

Hopefully will start moving soon. The Edge weekly did a story stating that offer price may possibly be reviewed. Minorities are holding out for RM 4.5 at least.

MFCB, your time has come

looks like this stock has woken up... volume coming in

switch to warrants better... 0 premium with significant time value

I normally dont like to hold a stock that already has too much expectation built in the share price... such stocks will fall hard at the slightest drop in earnings. Rather get them cheap when they are still unnoticed. Holding for long term certainly works if u hit the jackpot but not all stocks are like HuaYang...

This is the reply from management. I did not personally write this email but a friend of mine did.

On Thursday, 4 September 2014, 19:13, Mary - EFBHQ <mary@efb.com.my> wrote:
Dear Sir,

Answer to your questions are in blue below.

Regards,
Mary

----- Original Message -----
From: xxxxxxxx
To: EFB
Sent: Saturday, August 30, 2014 11:25 AM
Subject: Re: Fw: Investor relations: Questions on quarterly report

Hi,
I am one of the investors in EFB. I am very surprising with the recent quarter result just released on 29th Aug 2014.
There are few questions that I hope the management would help to address
1) what is the losses from the log concession? How much is the losses? Any plan to reduce such losses in future. Is this losses going to affect the coming quarter? Is this losses causing the Margin squeeze in this quarter?
The losses as mentioned in our 2Q write up is mainly due to log concessions secured for the group earlier in the years, that were of higher pricing compared to current market prices. The losses was approximately RM15m which has all been taken in fully in the 2Q.

2) what is the machinery upgrade in Malaysia about? Is there a plan to focus on particleboard than mdf? Why is there so often with machinery upgrade than other manufacturer? What is the automaton upgrade about?
The Machinery in Malaysia is on our Particle Board Line which needs to be upgraded due to quality problems and automation is to reduce cost of handling and manpower in our malaysian mills. No we do not have any plans to focus more on particleboard instead of MDF.

3) why thailand need upgrade again? How can we bring up the profit from the thailand factory? Is it still viable to operate in Thailand since the losses keep mounting?
Thailand plant is not an upgrade but major repair due to inadequate supply of heat from their existing boilers which is affecting their productivity. As to make Thailand plants profitable, this is one of the reason we need to do the major repair and yes operating in Thailand is still viable.

4) how is the rubber plantation progress so far?
The progress of our rubber plantation is fine and we have so far planted about 2000 acres of rubber trees moving to the 3rd phase of planting.

5) I would like to understand how much is the mdf gross margin? May I know what grade is the mdf that company is producing?
The current MDF margin is below 20% and if we do not do any upgrade and automation our profit margins might fall further due the rising cost of labor and power in Malaysia. We are producing Standard grade but if we do not do major maintenance and upgrades when needed we will end up producing lower grades and our margins will drop further.

6) could company do some presentation to update the shareholders on the recent progress of company?
Yes we can arrange for this to be done.

Frankly, many shareholders having concern on the company as of now most of the timber or wood related company having better profit margin. While evergreen still in losses. I hope company can really do something that make evergreen to be profitable again.
We sincerely understand shareholders concerns especially with our continued losses in the 2Q. However, we assure you that we are doing what ever we can to turnaround Evergreen in the 3Q 2014. We thank you and sincerely appreciate your patience and understanding to our weak performance shown in the last quarters.

On the positive note, their cashflow for this year was still positive, there is free cashflow and they manage to reduce their debts. This tells me that eventually there is light at the end of the tunnel but for how long I do not know...

Why such huge losses this q for Malaysian operations ? They said the problem was log concessions that was signed last year at higher price, it seems they do not benefit from lower log cost, how much of their raw materials costs are actually hedged ?

seems like ppl always just compare q on q and dont look at the bigger picture... overall 2014 bottom line still grew and last year there was one off profit of 9.2mil from land sale, one off 5.6 mil goodwill impairment this q. They are still cash rich and with recent acquisition looks like they are putting cash to better use to generate more passive income.

Poor cashflows even during the gold bull run in 2012, very high debt (D/E >0.5) but low ROE.

if william want to privatise he wont be disposing in open market so frequently as what he did...

holy crap.. losses of 261 mil due to impairment of trade receivables from related parties... wow just like that 20 pct of its current assets wiped out....this company is used like a piggy bank by owner to bail out other lion group companies...

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/stockpick/51610.jsp

Based on my analysis above, Turbo Mech is worth at least RM1.8, at the current price dividend yield is about 4.4% already. I am busy reloading my bullets to whack some more tomorrow if it continues dropping.

Top up some more at 1.15 to 1.16

superb results

rising from the ashes ?

NK, name me a few counters. I am open to further analysis definetely

"If Samudra holds 228m Destini shares at RM0.35, isn't it close to RM160m worth in value for their stake in Destini? But hell no, the owners had actually mentioned in their circular to place out the Destini shares they have to "placee" at RM0.35! And it is the placee that gains 100% return not Samudra! Who is the placee? You would have to ask the company or the management of Destini."

Where did you find above info ? This means that it makes no sense for KSTB to continue to hold Destini shares which are trading at RM0.7 now since it will only get to sell at RM0.35 anyway right ? Since it cannot sell in the open market, it means this will be off market transaction between KSTB and the placee ?

wow up 10%... yes, EVERGRN should be turning a corner soon. Judging from their impressive cashflow last year, plus the reduction in raw material costs, I m waiting for this to fly like HEVEA

can u share what are the typical returns a day trader can make in a month or a year ? I would guess it has to be damn good to make a living from it.

II, honestly I never use Graham formula. But I think it only serve as spot check to see if a company is overvalued.

One thing I notice about the Graham number, it shares some similarity with Katsenelson's absolute PE method. The similarity is that both methods will start from baseline PE and adjust this PE based on other factors. While Graham emphasizes on the growth factor in the (8.5+2G) part, Katselson's method is more detail, adding points for dividend yield, business durability etc. Graham's formula is less subjective and more straight forward.

But the main problem with this method still lies in the drawbacks of the PE ratio and EPS as what KC has explained before.

@ II, I try to keep it simple. From my opinion, 4.4 is probably the highest risk free rate that Graham could achieve during his time (whether its corporate AAA or govt bonds etc doesnt matter). We just need to normalize that to the highest risk free rate we can find in Malaysia. If you insist to use AAA corporate bond rates in Malaysia, you could do that too, obviously the higher the risk free rate today, the more conservative the IV will be.

II, my understanding is that the 4.4% was the risk free rate in Graham time. We divide it by Y to normalize that rate to today's risk free rate. Just because Jae Jun used AAA corporate rate doesnt mean we have to. Is MGS considered a risk free ? I think it is pretty much the best we have locally next to FD. So it is technically still apple to apple in my opinion. How much higher you think the AAA corporate bond rate going to be for Malaysia ? I think the valuation wont go so far. This is just a rough number.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/government-bond-yield

MGS yields are about 3.89 pct. It may move in tandem with interest rates

I would just use the FD rate as that is the risk free investment for me. Bonds are not exactly accessible to retail investors as they require a large capital. Nothing is risk free. If Malaysian govt bankrupt, your MGS will be worthless. Divide the 4.4% with the bond rate is to normalize the risk free returns from Graham's time to present day.

sunztzhe, I m not sure why you are talking about warrant conversion scenarios and how that relates to valuing the warrant. Maybe you can explain.

Suddenly moving... whats up

Another consideration is that Berkshire Hathaway has become too large hence the lack of value investments among the large caps. I m sure there is still some value to be found in small caps which are out of bounds for WB due to his fund size but not to the retail investor.

Great checklist. Thank you

Yes... you definitely made the right choice here. Lesson I learn here from your super normal returns is that holding good stocks for the long term is much more rewarding and less stressful than constant trading and worrying about macro.

KC thanks for sharing. Question is how many of these stocks hv actually exceeded their intrinsic value at current prices ? Would you have really kept them for 18 months ? In reality one may hv sold some of those tht hv exceeded intrinsic value and added on those tht were still undervalued. Would the returns been that high in that case ?This is one of the dilema I face, selling winners too early. What s your thought.

haha... strong man.... break 60 sen already
this baby is flying

Good post. But even when diversifying you did'nt put equal amounts to each basket. How do you decide your allocation ? Are you looking at macro in terms of market PE or are you looking at the fund;s historical performance to make the judgement ?

Breaking out

Firstly, thank you to bones for the write up. chonghai, well said... you echoed my thoughts... A few things to add:-

1. One must put a pretty large discount on these loan to related companies / other receivables as they keep increasing y-o-y showing that it may never / take a very long time be recovered

2. Although cash per share is high, the cash burn rate is also high, as the company has high negative cashflow every year and receivables continue to go up y-o-y, in fact the cash pile has depleted from RM500m in 2011 to only RM200m plus currently...

3. The major shareholders have also been actively disposing the shares so got to be careful.

If a management change happens and LIONFIB is stop being treated as a piggy bank for the other associate companies under William Cheng then perhaps this can be a real gem

villa1668,

Enterprise value = Market cap + Total Debt + Minority interests- Excess cash

In lay man term, it is the amount of money a person who wish to acquire JTIASA at current price is required to fork out. EV/ha is a ratio used to compare across multiple plantation companies based on the amount of plantation land they have. Using the ratio, the lower the value, the more undervalued the company is compared to its peers since you are paying less amount of money per hectare of land.... It is not necessarily the only metric you should use when deciding which company to buy although it is a good starting point. One should also consider other factors like the profitability, FFB yield, what type of land etc etc...

Looks like this baby is finally moving

wow flying

breakout baby....

Ppl are buying for the free warrants. The warrants are being offered at significant discount to theoratical ex bonus price at time of announcement. Once bonus ex, the mother will get thrown while warrants will fly and the discount gap between warrants and mother will narrow down. This is my view. The current price already beyond fundamentals of the company.

What am I missing ?

"Balance sheet

Looking at the balance sheets of company A and B, A is debt free with plenty of excess cash, while B is laden with increasing debts every year and negative net working capital. The solvency and long-term financial strength ratio below shows the vast difference in their financial health "

stockraider, how can you tell that company B is debt free from reading the article by KC ? If anything, the low current ratio suggests that it is laden with debts..