Since taking position in early 2019, I don't dare to move around. Just dumb dumb hold and wait for my stocks to appreciate one by one.

Harvesting in batches

The biggest loser is my remisier. He is not very happy with my inactivity (I assume)

I think next CNY he won't send me hamper anymore

I got mfcb also

Bought the warrants at beginning this year at 1.10

Both Jaks and mfcb I also like

The earning visibility is there, albeit Jaks is more controversial

No need so scare also, like I mentioned above, the next bear likely won't come until after 2020

My view is that we are entering an extended bull run. After screwing up the market for most of 2018, trump has finally got what he wants from china. All the dark clouds had dissipated. So conditions had become very favourable for equity. This is for 2019

In November 2020, the US will hold It's presidential Election. Traditionally market does well in election year

So there is still plenty of time to party. Don't worry. Just enjoy your life


Posted by Heavenly PUNTER > Apr 14, 2019 1:15 PM | Report Abuse

quite simple hahahah if your dayang make so much profit liao time to go into REITs lo! Can sailang and steady no need scared... can get dividend for you to go party some more!

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Statistics is not in favour of 3iii. On average, the stock market experiences 3 good years before getting into a bad year

Since 2018 was a bad year, 3iii will only smile again come 2022

In the meantime , he needs to live frugally and supplement his income wiping tables in Mc Donald


Posted by stockraider > Apr 14, 2019 1:05 PM | Report Abuse

1 out of many years of underperformance loh....!!

Again he will show underperformance this yr....this confirm just an average strategy loh not conclusive to be the holy grail mah...!!

Posted by Icon8888 > Apr 14, 2019 1:02 PM | Report Abuse

3iii got the defensive part right

He did well in 2018

But dogmatism prevented him from following through by capitalising on the subsequent bull market

So at best he is second class

You are getting wiser and wiser Mr Cockcroach

You are asking the right question

Long term Sustainable stockmrket performance comprises two key components :
(1) wealth creation. Your dayang did it this year; and
(2) wealth preservation , which you are pondering what to do now

In short, Whatever gain obtained from stock market should be guarded jealously. Don't get carried away by taking speculative positions and ultimately lose all back to the market.

Learn to escape from the karmic cycle of boom and bust

The above mentioned is actually more important than many people realise



Posted by qqq3 > Apr 14, 2019 1:01 PM | Report Abuse

how ah for some one make enough on Dayang already to close the books for 2019? should he close the books for 2019? I mean just take life easy for rest of 2019?

Philips is better

He escaped 2018 relatively unscathed and is now busy chasing profit in a bull market

That puts him a class above 3iii

3iii got the defensive part right

He did well in 2018

But dogmatism prevented him from following through by capitalising on the subsequent bull market

So at best he is second class

Of course, the opposite is true for aggressive investors

We all have something to learn here

Losing less in a bear market does not make you a great investor

You must be able to lose less in bear market and do well in bull market

Otherwise you are not there yet

Sorry to bust your bubble

The following is what Howard Mark said in his book "the most important things" :

"Neither defensive investors who limit their losses in a decline nor aggressive investors with substantial gains in a rising market have proved they possess skill. For us to conclude that investors truly add value, we have to see how they perform in environments to which their style isn’t particularly well suited. Can the aggressive investor keep from giving back gains when the market turns down? Will the defensive investor participate substantially when the market rises? This kind of asymmetry is the expression of real skill."

Bro sarifah, I tell you this : if Andy tak makan, Dia memang bodoh

Everybody will siphon some out given the opportunity (it is in Vietnam leh, not Klang or Port Dickson, like that also you don't dare to extract a bit ah ? Are you still a man or not ?)

I agree the 500 mil Is already on the Low side

So it is considered not aggressive and quite credible

The lower than expected profitability could be like what I mentioned above : leakage to ALP through various means

He is not a very rich guy so he tends to be a bit heavy handed when come to extracting value for himself

But so far according to CFO , he is leaving behind 150 mil to take care of the share price. After all he has a stake in the shares and warrants

We just ride with him on this loh

Otherwise What to do ? Go AGM and complain about toilet roll cost like SSlee ?

Nevermind, I will stop trying to convince people to buy

Your wallet your risk your return

That is why I say don't waste time modelling

CFO guidance of 150 mil is our best estimate

From the horses mouth mah

Very very credible , especially if it was communicated to Analysts for publication purpose

For example : ALP could have set up an operational and maintenance unit to provide service to the Vietnam power plant , this will allow him to siphoned value out etc

All these things cannot be reflected or captured by using standard IPP financial model etc

Wah 47%

I am not trying to win argument against you also

Both of us kawan kawan

I am trying to convince you to buy something I am excited about in hope that you can enjoy the good fortune

think harder bro probability

The welfare of your wallet at stake

20 Sen EPS in 1.5 year time is a too distant future ? selling at 85 Sen for potential RM2.00 target price a risky investment. ?

Nobody wins argument in stock market. By end 2019, winner is the one holding Jaks at RM1.50

Don't listen to puan fatimah lah

Abang sarifah got my support

Two to three weeks is all it takes

Not bad LOL

Carry on the good work

It is a good training ground


Posted by SarifahSelinder > Apr 14, 2019 8:38 AM | Report Abuse

Figures for IPP Vietnam from various sources don't jive

Sarifah decide to main konservatif

Sarifah ignore GIGO coal data/input from Google

Sarifah oso not impressed by the 150m sbb way too low

Sarifah you should write more in English

Before you know it, you will improve very quickly

Financiers will have perfect information

I am an investor

I understand this point pretty well


Posted by DK66 > Apr 13, 2019 11:22 PM | Report Abuse

With "perfect" information, it won't be investing, it is insider trading :)

--------------------------------
Icon8888 For me, investing is about making decisions with imperfect information

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For me, investing is about making decisions with imperfect information


Posted by kcchongnz > Apr 13, 2019 11:13 PM | Report Abuse

In a power plant project like this, if one is really talking about investing, the theoretical and logical thing to look for is what is the present value of these free cash flows over the life of the project, discounted to the present, and compared with the price now.

That is the theory postulated by John Burr Williams many years ago and the investing professionals still use them.

That is also how the viability of a project like this is being appraised too.

But of course to make money, theory may not apply and one needs not follow it. That is the beauty of the capital market.

I don't worry too much about dividend from Jaks

It won't be equivalent to profit, but will not be zero either

The FCF is definitely less than 150 mil, because 25 years depreciation will now be replaced by 15 years (let's say) principal repayment

You can actually make some assumptions and work out your own figures

At the end of the day, you don't need very high dividend payment. Let's say based on 600 mil shares and price of RM2.00, market cap is RM1.2 bil

What kind of dividend yield is reasonable ? 5% ? Then you just work backwards , and you will arrive at dividend payment of RM60 mil per annum

Is RM60 mil per annum out of RM150 mil net profit possible ?

Yes, very likely

That is it. That is all I need to know as far as FCF or potential dividend is concerned

I am not interested in knowing FCF over entire 25 years. i don't really give much emphasis to NPV. That is why I don't ask the kind of questions KC asked me

No offence, I am just being frank and straight forward

probability you have Jaks also ?

TP 80 Sen within 2 years

Dumb dumb hold

I very seldom go into such details

Scare garbage in garbage out

Anyway, like I always say, you don't need to know the weigh of the woman in order to know she is fat

Jaks at 85 Sen is not overvalued

As simple as that

But don't listen to Calvin advice to buy into all these theme plays too early

Without earnings, price will come down after the fever is over

You will be trapped

Possible

I like your thinking

Most people here straight away jump into negative conclusion for anything that haooens

Don't be too pessimistic

How about other cargoes ? Chips ? Underwear etc ?

Change your name to Bully

Be a bit bullish on everything

Beary,

Not necessarily a white elephant

It can be china’s secret weapon to solve the Melaka dilemma

A lot of cargoes might be channeled to this route

You are not stretching your imagination enough

https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-malacca-dilemma/

150 mil, at least we have a figure to work on

Not like Philips last time went out for a drink with GRO (sorry, CFO)come back with nothing

In other words, the sale reflects his lack of holding power

That is all, don't read too much into it

He was selling because he knows the ESOS is coming

For him, the ESOS incur zero holding cost, why not swap ? I will do that too if I were him

DK66 how much does it cost for them to buy the additional 10% ?

Yup, that is the spirit

Sorry I not sslee. I am a lazy old man that don't like to bother too much

夠吃夠用就好

I suggest we take RM150 mil as the base case, and hope for higher case

If it is indeed RM150 mil, the stock goes to RM2.00, that is not bad already

Anything more than that is bonus loh

Maybe ALP wants to siphon some out leh ? But if he leaves RM150 mil for me , I contented already



DK66 Potential of overstatement of coal consumption by 44% by kenanga !

Hence, potential understatement of profit by US$279m ??

Kenanga is a research company not a news reporter, it should provide an explanation.

LOL really ? and he talked like Steven was his soul mate ...


Posted by qqq3 > Apr 12, 2019 5:39 PM | Report Abuse

he is friend's friend's friend........go figure.

or maybe he was too busy groping the GRO


Posted by qqq3 > Apr 12, 2019 5:29 PM | Report Abuse

Philips drink drink with CFO but get all the wrong information.

when you are biased, you will not be able to see things properly



Posted by qqq3 > Apr 12, 2019 5:29 PM | Report Abuse

Philips drink drink with CFO but get all the wrong information.

I think so

that fellow was sitting right in front of them LOL

anyway, the figure should be very credible

you don't visit somebody and then pluck a figure from the air. That is inappropriate, because you will get Steven into trouble (as people will automatically assume he gives the info to you during the visit)


Posted by DK66 > Apr 12, 2019 5:26 PM | Report Abuse

I have an interesting question. How did Kenanga get the profit figure ? From Steven the CFO ?

Property loss plus interest expense = RM100 mil per annum ?

LOL it is up to you to decide how optimistic or pessimistic you want to be

If you are pessimistic you better sell now

It is your wallet

You bear the consequence if you are wrong (or right)



Posted by SarifahSelinder > Apr 12, 2019 5:19 PM | Report Abuse

At 90 sen interest plus property loss can screwed up sampai 100m

RM150 mil IPP profit less interest expenses of RM32 mil *** = RM118 mil

divided by 580 mil shares, EPS of 20 sen

I think TP is RM1.50 to RM2.00

I am happy

*** (assuming 100% owned, which is definitely conservative assumption as the bulk of borrowings is at 49% owned Evolve Concept mall)

focus on earnings, dont be distracted by other nonsenses

I have been in the market for a long time so I know a little bit

(I am referring to the stock market, not wet market, aunty ....)

need to factor in interest expenses and other division losses

how much of the interest expenses are wholly owned ? how much at 50% owned subsidiary ?

lets kick start a new round of debates !!!!

at least now we have something solid to work on

(one thing for sure, Jon Choivo's 25 consecutive years of IPP losses is definitely out)

Bingo !!!!! the missing part has been found, now we have a complete picture (almost)

"Charging on units of power produced, assuming the plant is able to keep up with the minimum utilisation requirement; the project is expected to yield up to USD120.0m/year of net-of-tax profits."

RM480 mil net profit per annum from the power plant.

30% of it will give you RM144 mil

https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/5398_GAMUDA/pt/KENANGA/5398_GAMUDA_KENANGA_2019-04-12_HOLD_2.85_Vietnam%20Study%20Trip%20-%20Hustling%20and%20Bustling_-1645898265.pdf

Page 12 got jaks info

I bought more today