baanyak ejek ah lu? orang beri maklumat hargai la

spot dengan futures beda la

dalam satu hari aja minyak bisa lompat naik dan turun

sabar la

USD30 tak ada cukup kah? sudah jual shares banyak kah?

Posted by TanDavid88 > May 21, 2022 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
30.499 only.
Mana ada USD37.00.
Pls post betul one loh.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bet on Citigroup, loaded up on Chevron, and dumped Verizon.

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-bet-on-citigroup-loaded-up-on-chevron-and-dumped-verizon-here-are-5-key-takeaways-from-its-q1-portfolio-update-/articleshow/91620727.cms

What does Chevron do?

https://www.chevron.com/worldwide/united-states

Chevron manufactures and sells a range of high-quality refined products, including gasoline, diesel, marine and aviation fuels, premium base oil, finished lubricants, and fuel oil additives. We own five U.S. fuel refineries and have a network of Chevron® and Texaco® service stations.

which IB published the right hand side information? Just came out?

just the currency USD-MYR effect already expand its margin by 10%, before considering any crack spread expansion

Steel exporters will benefit from weakening RM!

Infrastructure approvals hit 70% of last year’s total

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/04/16/infrastructure-approvals-hit-70-of-last-years-total

BEIJING: China’s government has given the green light to investment in projects that’s worth nearly 70% of what was allowed for the whole of last year, another sign that Beijing is accelerating infrastructure spending to bolster an economy hit hard by Covid-19.

Infrastructure approvals hit 70% of last year’s total

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/04/16/infrastructure-approvals-hit-70-of-last-years-total

BEIJING: China’s government has given the green light to investment in projects that’s worth nearly 70% of what was allowed for the whole of last year, another sign that Beijing is accelerating infrastructure spending to bolster an economy hit hard by Covid-19.

Latest Price (RM/MT)

Iron Ore RM 620.34
Scrap RM 2,553 – RM 2,738
Billet RM 3,200 – RM 3,300
Rebar RM 3,450- RM3,600
Steel Wire Rod RM 3,500 – RM3,600

Live updates: Big steel plant 'being destroyed' in Mariupol

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ap-ukraine-joe-biden-vladimir-putin-europe-b2039492.html

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/1968256-live-updates-big-steel-plant-being-destroyed-in-mariupol

In the besieged port city of Mariupol, Ukrainian and Russian forces are fighting for the Azovstal steel plant, one of the biggest in Europe, said Vadym Denysenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, in televised remarks on Saturday.

"Now there is a fight for Azovstal. … I can say that we have lost this economic giant. In fact, one of the largest metallurgical plants in Europe is actually being destroyed," Denysenko said.

Live updates: Big steel plant 'being destroyed' in Mariupol

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/ap-ukraine-joe-biden-vladimir-putin-europe-b2039492.html

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/1968256-live-updates-big-steel-plant-being-destroyed-in-mariupol

In the besieged port city of Mariupol, Ukrainian and Russian forces are fighting for the Azovstal steel plant, one of the biggest in Europe, said Vadym Denysenko, an adviser to Ukraine's interior minister, in televised remarks on Saturday.

"Now there is a fight for Azovstal. … I can say that we have lost this economic giant. In fact, one of the largest metallurgical plants in Europe is actually being destroyed," Denysenko said.

Japan's rebar prices climb to 13 years high

https://www.steelmint.com/insights/japans-rebar-prices-climb-to-13-years-high-290293

By Monday morning, deals for SD295A 16-25mm rebar in Tokyo were being transacted at Yen 100,000-102,000/t, up Yen 2,000/t on week and Yen 4,000/t on month respectively, and some buyers have already started paying Yen 103,000/t, sources confirmed. This has been the first time for Japanese rebar prices to reach above Yen 100,000/t since October 2008.

Thats more than 5,400 Chinese Yuan!

Japan's rebar prices climb to 13 years high

https://www.steelmint.com/insights/japans-rebar-prices-climb-to-13-years-high-290293

By Monday morning, deals for SD295A 16-25mm rebar in Tokyo were being transacted at Yen 100,000-102,000/t, up Yen 2,000/t on week and Yen 4,000/t on month respectively, and some buyers have already started paying Yen 103,000/t, sources confirmed. This has been the first time for Japanese rebar prices to reach above Yen 100,000/t since October 2008.

Thats more than 5,400 Chinese Yuan!

Steel price in asian countries outside China is actually higher than local chinese steel price as price is controlled by chinese govn

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/5088366/Latest-news/Philippines-steel-billet-import-price-hits-800-cfr-most-sellers-holding-back.html

Philippines steel billet import price hits $800 cfr, most sellers holding back


https://www.investing.com/commodities/steel-rebar-historical-data

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sanctions-on-russia-to-push-philippines-to-buy-more-se-asia-steel-billet-sources-say


https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2277959/country-girds-for-impact-of-higher-steel-prices

The price of steel billet in the global market increased to around US$800 per tonne, up from $650 per tonne, in just one week, said Pravit Horungruang, a committee member of the EAF Long Product Steel Producers Association.

Philippines steel billet import price hits $800 cfr, most sellers holding back

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/5088366/Latest-news/Philippines-steel-billet-import-price-hits-800-cfr-most-sellers-holding-back.html

https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2277959/country-girds-for-impact-of-higher-steel-prices

The price of steel billet in the global market increased to around US$800 per tonne, up from $650 per tonne, in just one week, said Pravit Horungruang, a committee member of the EAF Long Product Steel Producers Association.

Sanctions on Russia to push Philippines to buy more SE Asia steel billet, sources say

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sanctions-on-russia-to-push-philippines-to-buy-more-se-asia-steel-billet-sources-say

Far East Russia-origin 125mm 5sp billet was heard offered at $720-725 per tonne cfr Manila at the start of this week with bids as high as $705 per tonne cfr, but sources said they did not believe this offer was still in the market by the end of the week, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday.

Malaysia-origin 5sp blast furnace (BF) billet was heard to be offered by traders at $720-725 per tonne cfr Manila on Friday, with bids heard at $705-710 per tonne cfr for such material.

Latest Price (RM/MT) from MSI

Iron Ore: RM 615.93
Scrap: RM 2,216 - RM 2,610
Billet: RM 3,000 - RM 3,100
Rebar: RM 3,200- RM3,350
Steel Wire Rod: RM 3,350 - RM3,450

Billet price had sky rocketed from RM 2600 just a week earlier!

Latest Price (RM/MT) from MSI

Iron Ore: RM 615.93
Scrap: RM 2,216 - RM 2,610
Billet: RM 3,000 - RM 3,100
Rebar: RM 3,200- RM3,350
Steel Wire Rod: RM 3,350 - RM3,450

Billet price had sky rocketed from RM 2600 just a week earlier!

These capacity swaps will lead to a net decrease of 4.91 million mt/year in China's total crude steel capacity, Platts calculations showed.

This would lead to a net decrease in China's pig iron and crude steel capacity from late 2022 and onwards.

http://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/011122-analysis-chinas-eaf-steelmaking-capacity-on-rise-amid-decarbonization-goals

I think it wont be too drastic but i expect this a long term effect as Russian wont easily give in and Europe & US will continue sanction till Ukraine is released.

It will turn drastic if China cant help Russia by buying these steel products Russia cant export (Ukraine facility will still be closed though). This is still high possibility considering SWIFT ban and that asian economy / construction activity will rise soon after the covid apparent end

Posted by cckiong > Feb 27, 2022 5:37 PM | Report Abuse

Dr stell do u think it will cause a drastic rise in steel price in Asia including malaysia and how long is the crunch will be

China so far not helping Russia evade Western sanctions-U.S. official

https://www.ibtimes.com/china-so-far-not-helping-russia-evade-western-sanctions-us-official-3415677

Some of that trade is conducted in China's yuan currency, which could technically fall outside of sanctions aimed at cutting Russia off from transactions in U.S. dollars, euros, sterling and other major currencies.

But Chinese banks that do business with Russian banks and other entities hit with full blocking sanctions and put on the Treasury's "specially designated nationals" list could face sanctions themselves and loss of access to the U.S. financial system.

The official said that if China were to help Russia evade U.S. sanctions, "it really would be an unfortunate signal for China's vision of the world," and give "tacit or explicit accommodation to Russia's invasion of a sovereign country in the heart of Europe."

"It would do profound damage to its reputation in Europe, but really across the world," the official said of China.

China so far not helping Russia evade Western sanctions-U.S. official

https://www.ibtimes.com/china-so-far-not-helping-russia-evade-western-sanctions-us-official-3415677

Some of that trade is conducted in China's yuan currency, which could technically fall outside of sanctions aimed at cutting Russia off from transactions in U.S. dollars, euros, sterling and other major currencies.

But Chinese banks that do business with Russian banks and other entities hit with full blocking sanctions and put on the Treasury's "specially designated nationals" list could face sanctions themselves and loss of access to the U.S. financial system.

The official said that if China were to help Russia evade U.S. sanctions, "it really would be an unfortunate signal for China's vision of the world," and give "tacit or explicit accommodation to Russia's invasion of a sovereign country in the heart of Europe."

"It would do profound damage to its reputation in Europe, but really across the world," the official said of China.

Pig iron: Prices up on trades ahead of conflict

Published date: 24 February 2022

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2305525-pig-iron-prices-up-on-trades-ahead-of-conflict

The seaborne basic pig iron (BPI) market strengthened on fresh US and European bookings of Brazil- and CIS-origin material concluded at higher levels late last week, before the market was thrown into uncertainty by the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine culminating in Russian's invasion of Ukraine on Thursday.

CIS
........

The Argus fob Black Sea weekly price for Russian and Ukrainian BPI moved up to $575/t today, surging $30/t higher from 17 February, driven by sales done to Italy, Turkey and the US late last week.

A Ukrainian producer sold a combined tonnage of 10,000t to two traders in Italy - 5,000t to each - at an average price of $615/t cfr. The shipment is scheduled for early April. The deal price roughly equated to $570–575/t fob Black Sea as one of the buyers estimated a freight rate for the parcel at $40-45/t.

Another Ukrainian exporter traded a 15,000t dispatch to a Turkish steelmaker at $585/t fob, which was in line with the seller's latest offer targets. The delivery is planned for late March. Having finalised the sale, the exporter began to offer April shipment at $600/t fob.

A 30,000t cargo of Russian BPI was bought by a US trader at $615/t cfr, with the fob equivalent price estimated by market participants at around $575/t.

Following the trade, a large Russian steelmaker planned to enter the global BPI market with $630–640/t cfr offer targets of April shipment meant primarily for the US. But rising Russia-Ukraine tensions left the market bracing for potential sanctions against Russian business, and the steelmaker stepped back.


Brazil, US
...........

Brazilian BPI producers adopted a wait-and-see stance this week, with offer indications limited and expectations bullish.

The latest price for Brazilian material achieved in a concluded deal was $585/t cfr Nola as a large Brazilian exporter sold 35,000t of high-phosphorous BPI for April shipment to a US steel producer late last week. The deal netted back to around $550/t fob south Brazil.

Another 30,000t cargo containing Brazil-origin pig iron of various grades, including around 15,000t of BPI, was booked by a US trader as regular once-a-quarter business. The price for BPI within the deal was heard from $600/t to $615/t cfr but could not be conclusively confirmed.

Some market participants pointed to $580-600/t fob as possible levels for the next sales of Brazilian BPI if shipments from Russia and Ukraine are disrupted as expected.

The Argus weekly BPI fob south Brazil price assessment settled at $550-560/t today, up $7.50/t on average from last week. The fob north Brazil BPI assessment followed suit to rise to $560-565/t today, the same $7.50/t higher than the prior level.

The Argus weekly cfr Nola BPI assessment increased by an average of $30/t on a week earlier to stand at $585–590/t today, reflecting the new trades.


Asia
.........

BPI values in Asia-Pacific rose over the past week, buoyed by stronger buying interest from Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Thailand, while China was broadly quiet with no indications heard in recent weeks.

All Asia-Pacific demand this week was covered by India-origin material. A prompt cargo of 15,000t was reported sold to Thailand at around $650/t cfr. A similar-sized parcel was heard traded to Taiwan at $635/t cfr, although final details could not be confirmed by the time Argus went to press.

In addition, a 20,000t cargo to Korea and a few small dispatches to Korea and Japan were heard to changed hands at $630–640/t cfr. All these indications were much higher than regional price ideas of around $595–600/t cfr heard last week.

Pig iron: Prices up on trades ahead of conflict

Published date: 24 February 2022

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2305525-pig-iron-prices-up-on-trades-ahead-of-conflict

The seaborne basic pig iron (BPI) market strengthened on fresh US and European bookings of Brazil- and CIS-origin material concluded at higher levels late last week, before the market was thrown into uncertainty by the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine culminating in Russian's invasion of Ukraine on Thursday.

CIS
........

The Argus fob Black Sea weekly price for Russian and Ukrainian BPI moved up to $575/t today, surging $30/t higher from 17 February, driven by sales done to Italy, Turkey and the US late last week.

A Ukrainian producer sold a combined tonnage of 10,000t to two traders in Italy - 5,000t to each - at an average price of $615/t cfr. The shipment is scheduled for early April. The deal price roughly equated to $570–575/t fob Black Sea as one of the buyers estimated a freight rate for the parcel at $40-45/t.

Another Ukrainian exporter traded a 15,000t dispatch to a Turkish steelmaker at $585/t fob, which was in line with the seller's latest offer targets. The delivery is planned for late March. Having finalised the sale, the exporter began to offer April shipment at $600/t fob.

A 30,000t cargo of Russian BPI was bought by a US trader at $615/t cfr, with the fob equivalent price estimated by market participants at around $575/t.

Following the trade, a large Russian steelmaker planned to enter the global BPI market with $630–640/t cfr offer targets of April shipment meant primarily for the US. But rising Russia-Ukraine tensions left the market bracing for potential sanctions against Russian business, and the steelmaker stepped back.


Brazil, US
...........

Brazilian BPI producers adopted a wait-and-see stance this week, with offer indications limited and expectations bullish.

The latest price for Brazilian material achieved in a concluded deal was $585/t cfr Nola as a large Brazilian exporter sold 35,000t of high-phosphorous BPI for April shipment to a US steel producer late last week. The deal netted back to around $550/t fob south Brazil.

Another 30,000t cargo containing Brazil-origin pig iron of various grades, including around 15,000t of BPI, was booked by a US trader as regular once-a-quarter business. The price for BPI within the deal was heard from $600/t to $615/t cfr but could not be conclusively confirmed.

Some market participants pointed to $580-600/t fob as possible levels for the next sales of Brazilian BPI if shipments from Russia and Ukraine are disrupted as expected.

The Argus weekly BPI fob south Brazil price assessment settled at $550-560/t today, up $7.50/t on average from last week. The fob north Brazil BPI assessment followed suit to rise to $560-565/t today, the same $7.50/t higher than the prior level.

The Argus weekly cfr Nola BPI assessment increased by an average of $30/t on a week earlier to stand at $585–590/t today, reflecting the new trades.


Asia
.........

BPI values in Asia-Pacific rose over the past week, buoyed by stronger buying interest from Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Thailand, while China was broadly quiet with no indications heard in recent weeks.

All Asia-Pacific demand this week was covered by India-origin material. A prompt cargo of 15,000t was reported sold to Thailand at around $650/t cfr. A similar-sized parcel was heard traded to Taiwan at $635/t cfr, although final details could not be confirmed by the time Argus went to press.

In addition, a 20,000t cargo to Korea and a few small dispatches to Korea and Japan were heard to changed hands at $630–640/t cfr. All these indications were much higher than regional price ideas of around $595–600/t cfr heard last week.

Russia-Ukraine war to lift Italian pig iron prices

https://www.kallanish.com/en/news/steel/market-reports/article-details/russia-ukraine-war-expected-to-push-up-italian-pig-iron-prices-0222/

Italian pig iron prices are expected to continue to increase significantly in the coming days, as a result of shortages. This comes as the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Odessa come under siege from the Russian military.

Because of pig iron shortages from the CIS, an Italian purchase of Brazilian pig iron was heard at the beginning of February. A distributor who buys directly from producers to replenish stocks at Marghera, the main Italian steel port, is said to have bought a large, 35,000-tonne Brazilian vessel at $540/tonne fob Brazil. Some limited Ukrainian and Russian pig iron tonnages of between 7,000t and 15,000t are being sold in Italy at $610-615/t cfr Italy, sources observe.

The war in Ukraine is expected to cause a substantial change in the way Italy procures pig iron. Now that Ukrainian material is surrounded by uncertainty, and sanctions on Russia become a reality, more Brazilian prig iron is expected to be sold into Italy. It remains unclear whether the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, now recognised by Russia, will return as a regular pig iron supplier after the EU banned trade with the breakaway regions.

Russia-Ukraine war to lift Italian pig iron prices

https://www.kallanish.com/en/news/steel/market-reports/article-details/russia-ukraine-war-expected-to-push-up-italian-pig-iron-prices-0222/

Italian pig iron prices are expected to continue to increase significantly in the coming days, as a result of shortages. This comes as the Ukrainian ports of Mariupol and Odessa come under siege from the Russian military.

Because of pig iron shortages from the CIS, an Italian purchase of Brazilian pig iron was heard at the beginning of February. A distributor who buys directly from producers to replenish stocks at Marghera, the main Italian steel port, is said to have bought a large, 35,000-tonne Brazilian vessel at $540/tonne fob Brazil. Some limited Ukrainian and Russian pig iron tonnages of between 7,000t and 15,000t are being sold in Italy at $610-615/t cfr Italy, sources observe.

The war in Ukraine is expected to cause a substantial change in the way Italy procures pig iron. Now that Ukrainian material is surrounded by uncertainty, and sanctions on Russia become a reality, more Brazilian prig iron is expected to be sold into Italy. It remains unclear whether the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, now recognised by Russia, will return as a regular pig iron supplier after the EU banned trade with the breakaway regions.

Brazil pig iron export prices soar on lack of Ukraine, Russia supply

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/5086947/Latest-news/Brazil-pig-iron-export-prices-soar-on-lack-of-Ukraine-Russia-supply.html

Nippon Steel says can find alternatives for raw material it buys from Ukraine, Russia

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/02/25/ukraine-crisis-nippon-steel-strategy

“But we expect little impact as we have decided to switch supply sources to Brazil and Australia in the event of a crisis,” he said.

Still, any disruption in steel exports from Russia and Ukraine could bolster global steel prices as the two countries have a solid presence as exporters, Mori said.

For Nippon Steel, bigger export opportunities and higher steel prices could help boost its profits, but the conflict could also have a negative impact on the global economy, he said.

“We have to keep a close eye on the development as we don’t know which way it will swing,” Mori said.

Nippon Steel has forecast its business profit will jump to 800 billion yen ($6.98 billion) for the year to March 31, from 110 billion yen a year earlier, including 230 billion yen of appraisal gains on inventory.

Nippon Steel says can find alternatives for raw material it buys from Ukraine, Russia

https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/02/25/ukraine-crisis-nippon-steel-strategy

“But we expect little impact as we have decided to switch supply sources to Brazil and Australia in the event of a crisis,” he said.

Still, any disruption in steel exports from Russia and Ukraine could bolster global steel prices as the two countries have a solid presence as exporters, Mori said.

For Nippon Steel, bigger export opportunities and higher steel prices could help boost its profits, but the conflict could also have a negative impact on the global economy, he said.

“We have to keep a close eye on the development as we don’t know which way it will swing,” Mori said.

Nippon Steel has forecast its business profit will jump to 800 billion yen ($6.98 billion) for the year to March 31, from 110 billion yen a year earlier, including 230 billion yen of appraisal gains on inventory.

Exactly...this is a new permanent supply problem from both Ukraine & Russia!

Posted by Tobby > Feb 26, 2022 11:05 PM | Report Abuse

Supply of steel and iron will dwindle in coming days! Suddenly we will see extreme supply crunch! So chill! Buy on dip!

https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/chinas-steel-prices-may-rise-in-the-coming-month-1234755.htm

Invasion halts Ukraine steel shipments; appetite wanes for Russian steel

24 Feb 2022

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/022422-invasion-halts-ukraine-steel-shipments-appetite-wanes-for-russian-steel

Several steel plants in Ukraine, including those of pipemaking group Interpipe and the Azovstal and Ilyich mills in Mariupol, both part of Metinvest, have stopped producing and shipping, trade sources said.

Metinvest and ArcelorMittal said they were significantly reducing their steel production, hampered by the suspension of rail freight services and closure of several ports. ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine's largest integrated steel company located in Kryvyi Rih city, "is working to slow down production to a technical minimum" and production will be stopped at its underground mines, according to a statement issued by ArcelorMittal from London.

Ukraine is the world's 13th largest producer of steel and fifth largest exporter of iron ore by volume. It produced 21.4 million mt of crude steel in 2021. About 80% of its steel output is exported.


Sanctions can stall Russian purchases
.....................................

The appetite has already waned for Russian steel with tougher sanctions announced or expected from the EU, the US and other countries. The Russian mill source saw as a real possibility customer refusal of deliveries from the country.

"We are operating in a zone of uncertainty," the source said. "The port of Novorossiysk -- the ships are loading -- but I don't know what to do next, the situation is difficult."

In 2021, Russia made 76 million mt of steel, exporting around 40 million mt. In addition to numerous Atlantic buyers, China has recently become one of the biggest customers of Russian steel.

To Asia, Russian steel exports have mainly taken the form of billet in recent weeks.

News of the latest developments has dampened Asian demand, with a trader in Manila saying that rerollers in the Philippines would stop buying Russian and Ukrainian billet to avoid any potential risks.

Russia was the top non-Asian supplier of billet to the continent in 2021 by deal count, after Vietnam and Indonesia, having concluded 56 deals, compared with 72 and 63 by Vietnamese and Indonesian suppliers, respectively, according to spot data compiled by Platts.

Russian billet was sold mostly to the Philippines. While shipments via the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk appear to be unimpeded for now, and would likely be unscathed logistically out of the Russian Far East ports, sanctions on Russian banks involved in financing trades could scupper deals.

One Russian mill has stopped making offers to Asia "due to the impact of the bank issue," an eastern China-based trader said.

Invasion halts Ukraine steel shipments; appetite wanes for Russian steel

24 Feb 2022

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/022422-invasion-halts-ukraine-steel-shipments-appetite-wanes-for-russian-steel

Several steel plants in Ukraine, including those of pipemaking group Interpipe and the Azovstal and Ilyich mills in Mariupol, both part of Metinvest, have stopped producing and shipping, trade sources said.

Metinvest and ArcelorMittal said they were significantly reducing their steel production, hampered by the suspension of rail freight services and closure of several ports. ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine's largest integrated steel company located in Kryvyi Rih city, "is working to slow down production to a technical minimum" and production will be stopped at its underground mines, according to a statement issued by ArcelorMittal from London.

Ukraine is the world's 13th largest producer of steel and fifth largest exporter of iron ore by volume. It produced 21.4 million mt of crude steel in 2021. About 80% of its steel output is exported.


Sanctions can stall Russian purchases
.....................................

The appetite has already waned for Russian steel with tougher sanctions announced or expected from the EU, the US and other countries. The Russian mill source saw as a real possibility customer refusal of deliveries from the country.

"We are operating in a zone of uncertainty," the source said. "The port of Novorossiysk -- the ships are loading -- but I don't know what to do next, the situation is difficult."

In 2021, Russia made 76 million mt of steel, exporting around 40 million mt. In addition to numerous Atlantic buyers, China has recently become one of the biggest customers of Russian steel.

To Asia, Russian steel exports have mainly taken the form of billet in recent weeks.

News of the latest developments has dampened Asian demand, with a trader in Manila saying that rerollers in the Philippines would stop buying Russian and Ukrainian billet to avoid any potential risks.

Russia was the top non-Asian supplier of billet to the continent in 2021 by deal count, after Vietnam and Indonesia, having concluded 56 deals, compared with 72 and 63 by Vietnamese and Indonesian suppliers, respectively, according to spot data compiled by Platts.

Russian billet was sold mostly to the Philippines. While shipments via the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk appear to be unimpeded for now, and would likely be unscathed logistically out of the Russian Far East ports, sanctions on Russian banks involved in financing trades could scupper deals.

One Russian mill has stopped making offers to Asia "due to the impact of the bank issue," an eastern China-based trader said.

Invasion halts Ukraine steel shipments; appetite wanes for Russian steel

24 Feb 2022

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/022422-invasion-halts-ukraine-steel-shipments-appetite-wanes-for-russian-steel

Several steel plants in Ukraine, including those of pipemaking group Interpipe and the Azovstal and Ilyich mills in Mariupol, both part of Metinvest, have stopped producing and shipping, trade sources said.

Metinvest and ArcelorMittal said they were significantly reducing their steel production, hampered by the suspension of rail freight services and closure of several ports. ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine's largest integrated steel company located in Kryvyi Rih city, "is working to slow down production to a technical minimum" and production will be stopped at its underground mines, according to a statement issued by ArcelorMittal from London.

Ukraine is the world's 13th largest producer of steel and fifth largest exporter of iron ore by volume. It produced 21.4 million mt of crude steel in 2021. About 80% of its steel output is exported.


Sanctions can stall Russian purchases
.....................................

The appetite has already waned for Russian steel with tougher sanctions announced or expected from the EU, the US and other countries. The Russian mill source saw as a real possibility customer refusal of deliveries from the country.

"We are operating in a zone of uncertainty," the source said. "The port of Novorossiysk -- the ships are loading -- but I don't know what to do next, the situation is difficult."

In 2021, Russia made 76 million mt of steel, exporting around 40 million mt. In addition to numerous Atlantic buyers, China has recently become one of the biggest customers of Russian steel.

To Asia, Russian steel exports have mainly taken the form of billet in recent weeks.

News of the latest developments has dampened Asian demand, with a trader in Manila saying that rerollers in the Philippines would stop buying Russian and Ukrainian billet to avoid any potential risks.

Russia was the top non-Asian supplier of billet to the continent in 2021 by deal count, after Vietnam and Indonesia, having concluded 56 deals, compared with 72 and 63 by Vietnamese and Indonesian suppliers, respectively, according to spot data compiled by Platts.

Russian billet was sold mostly to the Philippines. While shipments via the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk appear to be unimpeded for now, and would likely be unscathed logistically out of the Russian Far East ports, sanctions on Russian banks involved in financing trades could scupper deals.

One Russian mill has stopped making offers to Asia "due to the impact of the bank issue," an eastern China-based trader said.

raw material for making fertilizer costlier now due to oil price rise?

https://www.investing.com/commodities/steel-rebar

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/012122-ukraine-steelmakers-miners-report-business-as-usual-despite-border-tensions

Ukraine is a major steel and iron ore producer. In 2021 and 2020 it made 21.4 million mt and 20.6 million mt respectively of crude steel and was the 13th largest steel producer among 64 worldsteel-member countries. Normally, 80% of its steel output is exported. Over the same period, Ukraine exported 44.4 million mt (2021) and 46.2 million mt (2020) of iron ore products, making it the fifth largest iron ore exporter in the world.

The majority of sources surveyed did not believe in a worst-case scenario, but admitted that if this did occur, the impact would be felt across Ukraine's entire steel industry.

"It all depends on the scenario, but the majority of [steelmaking and steel raw material mining] enterprises could be affected as over 90% of them are concentrated in the east of the country, and if it comes to hostilities, they will first of all unfold in the east," said Yuri Dobrovolsky of Ukrainian Industry Expertise, a market research and consultancy company.

Ukraine, Russia conflict could hit US steel industry

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2295822-ukraine-russia-conflict-could-hit-us-steel-industry

Russia and Ukraine have been critical pig iron suppliers to the US for years, comprising more than 60pc of the imports coming in since 2018. The US sources from several key producers in the Black Sea, many of whom account for a significant share of the US's low-phosphorus higher-priced pig iron. The region contains coastal borders of both Ukraine and Russia.

The potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine could force US pig iron consumers to lean on other global pig iron suppliers like Brazil, which made up 20pc of US pig iron imports since 2018. Brazilian pig iron is typically higher in phosphorous, making it less desirable to steelmakers in general.

Ukraine, Russia conflict could hit US steel industry

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2295822-ukraine-russia-conflict-could-hit-us-steel-industry

Russia and Ukraine have been critical pig iron suppliers to the US for years, comprising more than 60pc of the imports coming in since 2018. The US sources from several key producers in the Black Sea, many of whom account for a significant share of the US's low-phosphorus higher-priced pig iron. The region contains coastal borders of both Ukraine and Russia.

The potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine could force US pig iron consumers to lean on other global pig iron suppliers like Brazil, which made up 20pc of US pig iron imports since 2018. Brazilian pig iron is typically higher in phosphorous, making it less desirable to steelmakers in general.


https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/012122-ukraine-steelmakers-miners-report-business-as-usual-despite-border-tensions

Ukraine is a major steel and iron ore producer. In 2021 and 2020 it made 21.4 million mt and 20.6 million mt respectively of crude steel and was the 13th largest steel producer among 64 worldsteel-member countries. Normally, 80% of its steel output is exported. Over the same period, Ukraine exported 44.4 million mt (2021) and 46.2 million mt (2020) of iron ore products, making it the fifth largest iron ore exporter in the world.

The majority of sources surveyed did not believe in a worst-case scenario, but admitted that if this did occur, the impact would be felt across Ukraine's entire steel industry.

"It all depends on the scenario, but the majority of [steelmaking and steel raw material mining] enterprises could be affected as over 90% of them are concentrated in the east of the country, and if it comes to hostilities, they will first of all unfold in the east," said Yuri Dobrovolsky of Ukrainian Industry Expertise, a market research and consultancy company.

Ukraine, Russia conflict could hit US steel industry

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2295822-ukraine-russia-conflict-could-hit-us-steel-industry

Russia and Ukraine have been critical pig iron suppliers to the US for years, comprising more than 60pc of the imports coming in since 2018. The US sources from several key producers in the Black Sea, many of whom account for a significant share of the US's low-phosphorus higher-priced pig iron. The region contains coastal borders of both Ukraine and Russia.

The potential conflict between Russia and Ukraine could force US pig iron consumers to lean on other global pig iron suppliers like Brazil, which made up 20pc of US pig iron imports since 2018. Brazilian pig iron is typically higher in phosphorous, making it less desirable to steelmakers in general.


https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/012122-ukraine-steelmakers-miners-report-business-as-usual-despite-border-tensions

Ukraine is a major steel and iron ore producer. In 2021 and 2020 it made 21.4 million mt and 20.6 million mt respectively of crude steel and was the 13th largest steel producer among 64 worldsteel-member countries. Normally, 80% of its steel output is exported. Over the same period, Ukraine exported 44.4 million mt (2021) and 46.2 million mt (2020) of iron ore products, making it the fifth largest iron ore exporter in the world.

The majority of sources surveyed did not believe in a worst-case scenario, but admitted that if this did occur, the impact would be felt across Ukraine's entire steel industry.

"It all depends on the scenario, but the majority of [steelmaking and steel raw material mining] enterprises could be affected as over 90% of them are concentrated in the east of the country, and if it comes to hostilities, they will first of all unfold in the east," said Yuri Dobrovolsky of Ukrainian Industry Expertise, a market research and consultancy company.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/5082791/Lack-of-import-offers-pushes-up-Asian-steel-billet-prices-again.html

Lack of import offers pushes up Asian steel billet prices again

Low volumes of steel billet being offered for import into key Asian markets have led to a continued rise in spot prices for the semi-finished material in recent days, sources told Fastmarkets on Friday January 28.

Buyers in Asia have been struggling to source billet on the spot market, with sellers holding back offers until after the region’s lunar new year holidays conclude in early February.

“A large Indonesian blast furnace [BF] mill hasn’t given any offer prices in recent days, and needs buyers to bid directly,” a major Chinese importer source said on Friday, with trading sources from both Japan and Singapore agreeing.

A Vietnamese steelmaker told Fastmarkets on Friday that he would still prefer to sell in the domestic market rather than exporting. But he said he would, in theory, be able to offer billet at $650 per tonne fob Vietnam, which would work out at around $680 per tonne cfr China and Southeast Asia.

He added that he expected prices to rise again after the new year holidays.

https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/5082791/Lack-of-import-offers-pushes-up-Asian-steel-billet-prices-again.html

Lack of import offers pushes up Asian steel billet prices again

Low volumes of steel billet being offered for import into key Asian markets have led to a continued rise in spot prices for the semi-finished material in recent days, sources told Fastmarkets on Friday January 28.

Buyers in Asia have been struggling to source billet on the spot market, with sellers holding back offers until after the region’s lunar new year holidays conclude in early February.

“A large Indonesian blast furnace [BF] mill hasn’t given any offer prices in recent days, and needs buyers to bid directly,” a major Chinese importer source said on Friday, with trading sources from both Japan and Singapore agreeing.

A Vietnamese steelmaker told Fastmarkets on Friday that he would still prefer to sell in the domestic market rather than exporting. But he said he would, in theory, be able to offer billet at $650 per tonne fob Vietnam, which would work out at around $680 per tonne cfr China and Southeast Asia.

He added that he expected prices to rise again after the new year holidays.

Nippon Steel rationale for the acquisition:

https://www.nipponsteel.com/en/ir/library/pdf/20220121_300.pdf

It is interesting to see the 'Asean steel demand trend ' chart presented on Page 15 of the pdf - Nippon rationale for the acquisition

Further, BF-EAF of Ann Joo will definitely have a higher profit margin edge over the Thai steel makers using EAF

Note the above PE comparison is using annualized Operating profit of the Thai steelmakers with annualized PAT of Annjoo. The debt level of the Thai steelmakers are not known.

Japan's Nippon Steel buys Thai steelmakers in $763 mln deal

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nippon-steel-buy-thai-steelmakers-300-mln-2022-01-21/

Nippon Steel will pay $419 million to buy a 49.99 stake in Thai steelmaker G Steel PCL (GSTEEL.BK) and a 40.45% stake in G J Steel PCL (GJS.BK), including debt, from a fund managed by Ares SSG.

The Japanese company will then launch a tender offer to buy the remaining stake, which will cost up to $344 million, bringing the total acquisition cost to up to $763 million.

By buying the two steelmakers, which have production capacity of 3 million tonnes, Nippon Steel's global capacity will rise to 69 million tonnes.

........

We can see on below detail pdf the capacity and Operating profit information of these companies. This companies generates operating profit of RM 714 million (170 USD to RM exch 4.2) .

https://www.nipponsteel.com/en/ir/library/pdf/20220121_300.pdf

Nippon is buying them at RM 3204 million (USD 763m to RM exch 4.2).
PE = 3204 / 714 = 4.5

Ann Joo PE = 3.5