Hope HY will go up on this good news as Banks wont lend if they suspect Company always suffer from losses. Actually not to worry about hedging losses as it is not realized yet !! Only when realized will it be put into Profit n Loss Account. Actual story is HY hedged at USD 12.70, but crack spread higher. Just a loss of Opportunity, that is all. Q3/22 result of Expected more than Q2/22, will reveal truth.

Uncle KYY only telling half truth. His crack spread is only for MoGas 92,95, of which comprise only 30% of HY production. 46% is Diesel, of which Crack Spread is high, more than USD 40. HY already hedged 18 mil boe at USD 12.70 as a hedge for this MoGas Crack Spread, so at low spread, there will be a gain. KYY has been known to do what is contrary to what he is posting. Would not be surprised if he is buying HY instead since price is undervalued for a high Eps share. Already we can read Iraq, Vietnam, Indonesia all wants to build Refineries as there is shortage of Refining capacity. Still believe SsLee, Probability and Zhuge s explanation that H2/22 will be better than H1/22, and thus not surprising Net Eps around RM 5 for the year. In Europe public clamouring for Windfall tax on Energy shares as these companies made huge profit as a result of the Ukriane Russia war causing higher Refining Spread due to limited supply of Gas, Oil. Q3/22 result will show who is right. July, August already shown high Diesel Crack Spread, except for MoGas 92,95 due to overproduction by Europe s refiners which is mostly Simple Refinery, and not Complex as in the case of HY that can produce Diesel and Jet Fuel.

Road to full year Eps of RM 5/. Then those who dont believe will miss the chance. Diesel demand will be higher as Winter approaches, Russia not exporting Fuel, Gas to Europe, and onset of Typhoon season. All unbelievers trying to cast doubts on HY so as to get cheaper price. Still agree with SsLee, Probability and Zhuge that HY will achieve incredible results on par with other refineries the world over. Not an understatement that HY can touch at least higher than RM 7.70 after results out.

Very sad to see Heng Yuan forum hijacked to condemn one another, using expletives, and mentioning an experienced Remiscier deserves to die. Talk about Oil price, facts and figures of past results, and not to wallop each other with bad words. Admin do take action.

SsLee, can HYuan management clarify on the hedging loss provision and make announcement. ?? I believe this is the reason many sceptical on good eps since derivative loss is taken to be negative to the good profit announced. Whatever it is Probability explanation is good to allay the retailers fears. Price is very undervalued since in Q3, with crack spread hedged at 12 Usd for 18 mil barrels , should give a handsome profit since present crack spread below 10 Usd.

Probability and SsLee has done a great job to educate retailers about Hedging/ Derivative losses. Due to Ukraine-Russia war demand for Diesel will increase and thus widen crack spread. Though Gasoline crack has gone down, HYuan has hedged 18 mil barrels at USD 12 !!. So in coming Q3 for Petron and HYuan, both will still get good profit as Europe faces tight supply of Gas which is replaced by Diesel. Nowhere in KLSE is found a share that will have massive EPS for the year , 3 months already 2.22 !!

Still believe HYuan has great potential after explanation by SsLee and Probability of Derivative or Hedging losses. Coming Q3/22 results will be also good as 18 mil barrels hedged at USD 12. Despite the very excellent results, there are people trying to push prices down so as to collect it cheap and instill fear to retailers who dont understand how Hedging works. After accumulating enough shares, these syndicates will push prices up to gain profit.

The loss in NTA is due to Allocation for hedging loss and is not Realized during the 2 nd Quarter 22. It is just like you buy Glove shares at RM 4, and it fell to RM 2, but you have not sold it, it is just paper loss !! The price may recover, and when you sell it, then only actual gain or loss. The Hedging loss allocation is till 2024 according to report. Since allocation for loss in Balance Sheet, thus NTA is down by the Hedging loss. Recently Thai Oil released their Q2 report, and said prospects for Diesel is still very good with good Crack Spread. So all is still well with HYuan and Q3 will still be good.

Grateful thanks to Zhuge liang, JohnZhang, Probability and OTB for their faith in HYuan having very superb profit !!! A very happy Merdeka to all who believe in HYuan !! call warrants GO, Go!!!

Ong ah, Heng Ah, Huat Ah, Earnings per share of ------RM 222.49/ share , highest in History !!!! Bonus dividend declared - 10 cents, again, highest in History !! Price Earnings ratio of --1.9x.

Credit must be given to Zhuge Liang, John Zhang and Probability plus OTB for their meaningful contribution to this Forum discussing HYuan. Most refiners, if not all, reported handsome profit, what makes HYuan the exception ? It is good that not many believe HYuan can have good profit, so potential to go higher is there. This is unlike 2017 where most expect net Eps of higher than Rm 1.50/ share and when results, not good, the price fell from RM 18 downwards. Many lost their hard earned money. Hope this round it is the reverse, many will make good profit, especially those playing Call Warrants !!!

Waiting excitedly for Q2 results. Famous advisor says Gross Profit will be around RM 1bil. After deducting expenses and tax, assume Net Profit to be 450 mil or Eps of RM 1.50/ share. Anything above RM 1/ will be very good. If Q3 is better than Q2 due to no hedging losses, assuming eps of 1.50, already 9 months, total Eps of around RM3/ already, for a price of RM 5.30 !!! Sincerely hope HengYuan will give a decent Dividend to give shareholders a boost. Up , up and away !!!

Let us hope Sslee is correct in his estimate of HYuan s profit and Call Warrants, C 26, 24, 25 39, will all go up to reach RM 0.88 cents. !! Eps of RM 1/ share at least !!

Will be happy if HYuan can reach former high of Rm7.77 and later reach Rm 8.88. Of course depends on Q2 results, middle expectation is RM 1.50/ share. Later should high Crack spread maintained due to Ukraine war, hopefully can reach former high of RM 17, which was achieved in 2017 based on lower Crack Spread. !

Agree, hope HYuan dont disappoint us. Dividends if given is a bonus as Stockraider says HYuan stingy being China controlled company, maybe because of delay in Subsidy payments by Govt. Petron has good results and yet price went down. Hope Petron CY, HYuan C25, C 39 besides C 24,26, will also go up as it is more sensitive to price rise since former has lower conversion ratio of 4 and 5 to !.

Wonder why so many naysayers here. Only SsLee, Probability gives facts and figures that is important. Already PetronM results shows good profit, so why doubt about Heng Yuan results ?

Whole world refiners make lots of profit, why M sia exception ? Share market never go up in straight line, always up, then down a bit. So not surprising even if say eps of RM 2/ share, price goes Down !!! Then later people realize this is good result, price then goes up !! Typical reaction, of Sell on News !!!

look at Hibiscus. After results out, price went down first. Malaysians, always Sell on News, buy on rumours. Then after 1 or 2 days only, price went up !! dont be surprised, Petronm will be like this.

Petron s results will have impact on HYuan s price. Upon good result of HYuan, say 1 rgt/share, or more, will go Limit UP ?

Since Petron results out, high chance Heng Yuan results will be out ESOK. !! SsLee calculations is Fantastic, to the Dot. !! Conservative estimate of RM1 Eps can achieve. Since 10.5 mil barrels of Refined oil is produced, say 2x Petron s, say lah 2X Petrons Eps of 68 cents, so , eps is more than RM 1 !! Also, first time HYuan s price, more than Petron Malaysia. !

SsLee, fantastic calculation !!! Eps of 68 cents. Means half year profit already over RM1 !! Since Refining and plus retail is more stable, present PE is less than 3x !! Rm6/2. Call Warrant CY is very undervalued at less than 10% as Expiry is end of 2022, still long time to go.

Uncle Koon, now Heng Yuan shares going up due to good results. Please join us. Hibiscus is good also, but eps wise, less than HY. Crack spread going down is MoGas 92., and not others. Many are wary of HY as many lost their pants in 2017 as it fell from RM 18 to RM 5. Those playing CWs , like in Gloves, lost more as it is leveraged.

Possible PetronM next to limit up ?

Good day today. Follows world trend of incredible profit of Refining company. Got chance even Hibiscus will announce huge profit due to high Brent Oil price. Thnks to those that believe despite incredible opposition.

Very good day today !! Have to thank Sifu OTB, SSlee, Probability and Zhuge Liang, for the excellent work and Faith in Heng Yuan. As mentioned, even Eps of RM1/ share is enough. Thought slow and steady enough, suddenly Limit UP !!! Incredible Velocity !!

Crude Oil price up, so Petron and HengYuan should do well. With 750 stations and slow to reduce prices when price down, can have inventory gain. HYuan C 24, have gone down a lot, now only 6.5 cents !! Long maturity, worth a try.

Now, Tech Analysis shows good to go in Margin of Safety OK as MM accumulating around RM 4 for a long time before pushing up when astonishing profit announced.

Ha Ha. May our wishes come true. HYuan reach RM 8.88, Call Warrants C 24 reach RM 0.88, and PetronM, Call Wrt, CY also reach 0.88 or at least RM 0.77 !! Hopefully Petron and HengYuan can give bumper dividends.!!

Yes, buying Call Wrt C 24, 25,26. If Heng Yuan goes up to RM7.70, former peak, call warrants will give good profit. Just pray Inv Banks dont push down Mother share to avoid losses as they hate paying to Call Warrant holders. Petron s results wil be out very soon.

Petron Phillipines already reported strong profit thru higher Refining Margins and Retail sales in M sia, Phillipines and trade in Singapore. No reason why Petron will show lower profit. Heng Yuan should also do well as seen in Binh Son astonishing profit.

Petron reported strong refining margin and increase in sales of its products. So like Binh Son in Vietnam and elsewhere, PetronM, and Heng Yuan should do well in the coming 6 or 7 work days results. Petron strong in retail sales and HengYuan from its 10.5 mil production, through its refining process, which has a high crack spread, resulting in huge profits.

For HYuan, there are 3 call warrants, each with difft ratios and difft exercise price. Valuations of CW depends on premiums depending on Maturity and leverage. C 26 only has 30 mil, expiring 2023, C 24, has an issue of 80 mil, expiring also in 2023, but C 25 has best ratio of 4 to 1, with larger issue of 150 mil, but expiring at end October. You will notice most active is C 24, but more responsive to any HYuan price increase is C 25. It is more risky as it is expiring soon, and Inv bank may push down Mother share price to avoid losses on its Call Warrants. Anyway, to be om the conservative side, estd Eps of HengYuan is around RM1/share, anything above is a bonus. If we take Eps of RM3/share and profit is less, like in 2017, prices will plummet cos it did not meet expectations !!

Refineries are a good bet this round as shortage of refiners cos of MCO. PetronM usually release results earlier after parent Co in Phillipines announce group result. HengYuan is complex refiners able to produce Diesel which has higher crack spread, at around 46% of its 10.5 mil barrel / Qtr, but it has to hedge Crude Oil Price and also Prices of Refined Oil where cost of production is USD 2/ barrel. PetronM is simple Refiner where hedging is minimal as it has 750 stations but Mogas 92 crack spread is low for this product. It is expected that HYuan will announce an estimated net profit of RM1/ share, or 300 mil, barring huge derivative losses, like last quarter.

coming results should be good as Oil prices uptrend. 750 petrol station should give good profit as economy recovers. Only thing is it is a simple refinery not a complex refinery like Heng Yuan. KYY just mentioned that Hibiscus is now good, so Oil and refineries should do well.

Hope TSH with its superior planting material and yield, plus explosive value from its Kalimantan land will be a Goldmine to investors. What Calvin says is true as seen in Directors non-stop buying. !! Long Term can reach RM 7 ?

Today, Saudi Aramco reported huge profit of US 88 billion for half year, in World News. Anyway, safer to be on the conservative side of EPS RM 1, for Q2 and Q3/2022. Of course many predict gross profit of RM 1 billion, before hedging losses, operating cost, inventory loss, etc. Number of shares is only 300 million !! Heng Yuan has touched RM 7 before, and RM 10 should be possible as good results will make the PE ratio very low, below 5x.

OTB never badmouthed Heng Yuan . All other refiners reporting awesome profit, why is Malaysia the exception ? Only because many afraid of Derivative loss, or hedging loss. Anyway, better to have low expectations of Eps of Rm1 or Nett profit of 300 mil, Too high expectations of Gross Profit of 1 bil, and when it is lower, price will fall as happen last time HY touch RM17. Thus when profit is more than RM 1, then price will go up.

number of shares only 300 mil, so net profit of RM 300mil will give EPS of Rm 1/ !!! Dont understand why many wants to see HYuan go down to RM2. Even below RM 4/, there will be many buyers. In 2017, even with crack spread of around USD 10-15, price was above Rm 8 !! The most under rated share cos of fear of Derivative loss, which may turn to derivative gain !! Europe, Asia all stupendous gain for Refiners, why is Malaysia exceptional when refining capacity is limited ? Will be like TSH, now only starting to move, watch out. !!

With all good fundamentals, all the way to Rm 1.80. Production of FFb has increased and also plantations in Indonesia has less problems of getting workers. Also products sent to Wilmar for processing, thus Q2/22 will be fantastic.

Stock Win, even an Earnings per Share of RM 1/ is good enough. I remember the last time HY hit RM18, expectations were too high, and when results not up to expectations, price fell !! So it is better to have conservative estimate of EPS. In Europe, oil companies reported superb earnings and so is Vietnam, closer to home. So I guess, eps should not be too far off RM1/.

With all the bullish news, especially Vietnam s refinery super profit, HYuan should do well. Dont understand why crack spread can be so low for MoGas 92, whereas Diesel crack spread is so much higher. Anyway, major HYuan plroduction is Diesel, so should be doing well.

OTB constantly being attacked when he does a posting, so better diam diam. Todays news, India s Reliance getting good profit from Refining. Just wait for Q2 report as U Plt already reported their profit. Even RM 1/ share or RM 300 million net profit is already good enough.
Noticed that heavy bookings of Honda HRV and new Alza will lead to vehicle sales of 630,000 this year, a record. will lead to high Fuel demand. believe that Rm 4 is near bottom, and it is on way up.

Buy signal appeared. Forecast eps for year above RM 2/. Today, hammer appeared, i.e. it went down earlier then reversed up, so good sign. Crack spread still above USD 20.

Nato and Ukraine already said War wont end soon !! Today s Star article bullish on Refineries due to China shutdown. KYY quietly bought HYuan without writing at i3, and then wrote that should have sold. Now asking people to cut loss, possibly for him to average down. Why should investors sell when price is already so low ? Fundamentals will prevail at the end. SsLee wrote that HY do hedging on Crude and Refined Oil to minimize fluctuations in prices and thus, the Derivative loss in Q1 will be lesser in Q2. Hope is impt as it is what kept prisoners alive during WW2 amid hardships in POW camps!! Still believe HY is undervalued as Crack Spread is still above USD 20.!! Cost of production is only USD 2/!!

Petron eps of 40 cents, and 106 mil Later, HYuan will get higher Eps. Go to HYuan to see how OTB calculate the potential EPS for Q1, and how SSLee calculate the potential profit.

Tomorrow HYuan results probably out. With Inventory gain, high Gross Refinery Margin, hope net profit can touch 300 mil, if not more or Eps of RM1. For Q2, crack spread is higher at USD 30, thus profit will be much higher !!

Petron capacity is half of Heng Yuan. So if profit is 106 mil for Q1, maybe Heng Yuan profit will be double. Seems due to Inventory Gain, plus high Gross Refinery Margin, maybe HYuan profit can touch around 300 mil !! with high crack spread of US 30, profit wil be enormous for capacity of 150,000 barrels/ day.

TQ, Vinc3362. Wow, 150,000 barrels per day, x 30 / mth, x USD 30/ barrel will give a very good profit. 4.5 mil barrels/ mth x RM 130/ barrel =RM 580 mil / mth x 3 mths. Do correct if wrong. Enormous profit, yet price is down.

If not wrong Refining capacity of HYuan is 2x PetronM. Capacity is 160,000 barrel per month if not wrong. As calculated above, Nett crack spread is USD 30/ x 4.4 =RM 132/ barrel x 160,000 x 12. Kindly correct if wrong !!

To be fair, OTB puts his reco based on facts and figures as can be seen by the results of other refiners like Reliance in India. Have been a long time subscriber and I find no wrong in him, no doubt lost a bit in HiapTek, MSC and PMBTech. Who can be 100% accurate all the time ? Crack spread is indeed high, and it can be true that HYuan and PetronM fall is due to some CWs maturing, force selling or Short Selling. Look at Hibiscus, eps of 15 cents for a Quarter Year, Net profit of 307 mil and PE of 6X !! His reco on AYS still hold as eps is 6 cents, and PE is only 2X!