RHB TP 6.68

Longer term investors...buying opportunity?

The goods are that most of us long-term holders are making great returns for our patience! More to come...

sorry, yes RHB downgraded from previous TP, not maintain.

RHB latest report maintained it TP at 58c

CIMB downgraded it's TP as they said right issue may be imminent...the premise they used is Yinson's price declined as much as 26% since it called for right issue in 2021

Its the poor sentiment...

RHB also upgraded from 0.62 to 0.65

Result should be released after afternoon close.

BA have not been in a better place fot years... expect even better days ahead!

The turnaround of the business is now clear.

60c coming nearer to next month's quarter result!

Patience is always the key!

Good price to add position now!

Otw to 55c this week!

RHB 27 May 2021

Keep BUY, new SOP-based MYR0.51 TP from MYR0.47, 13% upside.

Bumi Armada’s 1Q21 earnings beat expectations, led by better Armada

Olombendo earnings and other operating income. We expect cash flow to

be resilient, backed by stable FPSO operations and continuous asset

monetisation. Its risk-reward profile remains attractive, as its current 6.1x

FY21F P/E (-0.5SD from the 5-year mean) reflects an elevated 2.08x net

gearing as at 1Q21.

 Above expectations. At 36% and 34% of our and Street’s full-year

estimates, 1Q21 earnings of MYR148m (+64% YoY) beat expectations –

largely due to higher-than-expected management fees charged to its

associate and Armada Olombendo’s contribution. No dividends were

declared for the quarter, as expected.

 1Q21 core profit decreased 15% QoQ after stripping off MYR2m in

unrealised FX gains and a MYR7m gain on asset disposal. This was largely

due to weaker JV & associate contributions as a consequence of additional

life extension costs on Armada Sterling and a weaker OMS segment amidst

weaker OSV utilisation of 44% recorded (4Q20: 49%). This was offset by

lower operating costs on Armada Olombendo and management fees

charged to its associate, recognised in other operating income. YoY, 1Q21

core earnings improved 64% YoY on better Armada Kraken availability and

higher other operating income.

 Outlook. Armada Kraken recorded lower vessel availability QoQ in 1Q21

due to an unplanned shutdown. Management guided that Armada

Olombendo is relatively more stable than Armada Kraken, given the latter’s

harsh operating environment. Overall, operating cash flow in 1Q21 has

improved 8.1x with the swing in trade receivables and payables. The

company has disposed 11 OSVs in 1Q21 and is left with 16 vessels as of

end March. Further asset monetisation is expected to continue in 2021 to

improve cash flow. However, the OMS segment should continue to face

challenges in 2021, as the construction vessels remain idle. Meanwhile,

Bumi Armada sees minimal disruption to its business operations in India

despite COVID-19’s continuous spread in India, but safety protocols and

continuous monitoring are in place.

 We increase FY21F-22F earnings by 6-7% after tweaking up Armada

Olombendo’s earnings contributions and imputing management fees

charged to associates, offsetting lower earnings from Armada Sterling. Our

TP rises to MYR0.51 post earnings upgrade. Our TP implies FY21F P/E

and P/BV of 6.9x and 0.84x. Note: We have yet to factor in the recent 30-

year FSRU project in Mumbai. Downside risks: Potential cash calls, weaker

OSV utilisation rates, and a deterioration in Armada Kraken’s operations.



Superb result!

Brace for 50c !

After Q result, no more <50c

If not because of sentiments, now should be trading near 50c!

Rumour of Selangor lockdown spooked the market

29/5/20 1Q PBT (rm224 m) - 21c
28/8/20 2Q PBT rm114m - 27c
19/11/20 3Q PBT rm88 m - 26.5 c
26/2/21 4Q PBT rm138m - 39.5 c
1Q 21 PBT >rm100m - 50 c ???

Very attractive price to enter now.

If lucky enough for it to fall below 0.38, I will get more.

60c by end May very possible, but 55c sure in the pocket by then!

Slow slow up is the best

Oil price does not affect BA directly. Most of its income is from the FPSO which are doing very well and generating very good cash flow. Its FPSO business is not affected as its not based on oil prices.

As long as oil price is above USD40 to 45, its clients will make money, and BA fundamental remains the same.

Be steady...Armada business turnaround is intact.

Just that market sentiment is poor now.

cutwin first

50c surely today!

slow and steady better

50c in the pocket soon, 60c next stop

hold on tight

too bad Mabel checked out from Armada too early

Just noticed big sifu Fong now has 71 million shares in Armada.

The last time i checked, i remember he held 30 million shares.

Did he just add position again? Anyone can confirm?

50c surely soon

Be patient. Can hit 50c this/next month and to 70c in another 2 positive quarters or earlier.

The chart is looking very good. Very strong uptrend.

Breaking the 44c resistant, will be followed swiftly to the 50c mark.

FY20 core net profit of RM448m was 124%/120% of our/consensus’ forecasts due to a surge in associate profits and forex translation gains. ■ We raise our FY21-22F forecasts because the higher 4Q20 associate profits are partially sustainable, and we also factor in contribution from FPSO 98/2. ■ With higher oil prices and BAB’s successful debt restructuring, BAB’s risk profile is declining, supporting our Add call with a higher SOP TP of 44 sen. Surprisingly-strong 4Q20 core net profit driven by associates BAB’s 4Q20 core net profit of RM174m was more than 6-times higher than 4Q19’s and more than twice the immediately-preceding 3Q20, due to a 153% rise in BAB’s share of JV profits, and some forex translation gains. The rise in share of JV profits was the result of the extension of the FPSO Sterling 1 contract, in which BAB has a 50% stake, commencing 4Q20. The Sterling 1 JV had also expensed the costs related to life extension in the previous two quarters, which contributed to losses at the share of JV line during the 2Q and 3Q20. The Sterling 1 was originally converted to last for 7+6 years, but after completing its 7-year firm contract in Apr 2020, the charterer ONGC wanted to extend the Sterling 1 contract for up to 15 more years (10+5 years), hence requiring costly life-extension works that had hit BAB’s share of JV earnings earlier. BAB’s strong 4Q20 results was also due to higher uptime rates for the FPSO Kraken, against a weaker 3Q20 when the Kraken entered planned maintenance, during which BAB was not paid charter hire as it had already fully utilised its maintenance allowances for the year during 1H20. Finally, BAB benefitted from some forex translation gains during 4Q20. Debt restructuring completed, BAB can breathe easy until 2024F In Apr 2019, BAB restructured US$660m in unsecured debts into two tranches. Tranche 1 of US$260m was to be repaid over two years, while Tranche 2 of US$400m is to be repaid over five years (we believe Tranche 2 is mainly to be repaid in May 2024F in a large bullet). Of the US$260m Tranche 1, BAB repaid US$100m in 2Q20 and US$30m in Dec 2020, with the US$130m principal originally due in May 2021F now restructured to regular amortising payments with final settlement in Nov 2022F. In our view, BAB should be able to pay off the US$130m due by Nov 2022F, even without any asset disposals, taking into account its end-Dec 2020 cash balance of US$223m, and positive operating cashflows generated from its working FPSOs net of project finance loan instalments. But BAB will probably struggle with the US$400m Tranche 2 due by May 2024F, and the US$380m sukuk also due in 2024F, and may need to refinance either of these two debts. However, this is not a problem that investors need to worry about immediately. In order to help with the 2024F repayments, BAB will have to work towards the sale of its remaining fleet of 27 OSVs, the two Caspian Sea SC vessels, and its Indonesian pipelay barge, on top of the FPSO Claire laid-up since Mar 2016. With higher oil prices, interest in these assets could increase, and BAB may have a higher chance of securing work for the two SC assets which have been laid-up in the Caspian Sea since Dec 2018.

CIMB TP 44c from previous 43c

50c definitely coming soon!

BUY, new SOP-based TP of MYR0.47 from MYR0.43, 18% upside. Bumi Armada’s FY20 results beat expectations, as its exceptional 4Q20 results were led by sturdier numbers from its floating, production and off-loading (FPO) and Offshore Marine Services (OMS) numbers. We expect cash flow to be resilient, backed by better reliability of its Kraken unit and continuous asset monetisation. Its risk-reward profile remains attractive, as its current 5.7x FY21F P/E and 0.65x FY21F P/BV (-1SD from the 5-year mean) reflect an elevated 2.4x net gearing, as at 4Q20.  Above expectations. At 130% and 129% of our and Street full-year estimates, FY20 earnings of MYR476m (+75% YoY) beat expectations – largely due to a stronger-than-expected JV and associate contribution, on top of OMS profit. No dividends were declared for the quarter, as expected.  4Q20 core profit surged 1.1x QoQ to MYR174m after stripping off MYR5m in unrealised FX losses and MYR27m assets held for sale impairments. This was largely due to the spike in the JV & associate contribution, in the absence of one-off costs recognised this quarter and lower operating costs amidst better Armada Kraken and Olombendo earnings. This was further supported by a stronger OMS segment, led by the translation of fixed deposits despite a weaker OSV utilisation of 49% recorded (3Q20: 56%). As such, FY20 core earnings surged 75% YoY.  Outlook. Armada Kraken achieved an optimal utilisation rate in 4Q20, and we expect stable contribution from all the operating vessels in 2021. However, the OMS segment should continue to face challenges in 2021, but there could be more enquiries on construction vessels, with the spike in oil prices. The maturity date for Tranche 1 (USD260m) of the USD660m term loan facilities has been extended to 23 Nov 2022 from May 2021, with no material change to the financing terms. It will be gradually repaid in the coming quarters. The company has 27 OSVs in its fleet as of end-2020, and further asset monetisation is expected to continue in 2021, to improve cash flow. Meanwhile, ONGC has granted an extension of the completion timeline for the 30%-owned DWN98/2 Development-FPSO project, in view of India’s government guidelines with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic.  We increase FY21F earnings by 3% after lowering the finance cost assumption, and introduce FY23F earnings of MYR414m (+1% YoY) in this report. Our TP rises to MYR0.47, after upgrading our estimates and updating the latest net debt numbers. Our TP implies 6.8x FY21F P/E and 0.78x FY21F P/BV. We think this delay in the maturity date for the Tranche 1 loan facilities will alleviate its near-term financial pressure, and further asset monetisation will strengthen its balance sheet. Downside risks: Potential cash calls, weaker OSV utilisation rates, and a deterioration in Kraken’s operations. 

RHB IB latest TP 47c

JF Apex TP 42c

file:///D:/data/Downloads/20210301%20Bumi%20Armada%204Q20%20results.pdf

hold on to your tickets, this is a multi bagger!

form is temporary, good performance will be reflected in share price given time surely

fantastic QR performance hampered by poor sentiments

shares changed hands, many sellers but just as many new owners of BA.

good for base building.

you cant get a better opportunity to collect now!

trading volume moving really fast

lets go beyond 40c today.

after research house rerate the next few days...move quickly to 50c surely

wow! that's superb!

D day...hope Armada wont disappoint us!

next week already march. definitely today or tomorrow