Thanks for Hng33 sharing. Good analyst.

Some comments:
9MFY13, total revenue and pre-tax profit stood at RM338mil and –RM192mil respectively. However, government says it already paid YTL RM663mil.

Assume this figure take into 4Q13 revenue (conservative assume -no other revenue except RM663m); the 4Q13 will see mobile segment jump by RM325m (663-338).

With conservative profit margin assume superb low at 30% (normal rate at 70%), PBT shall be RM 98m; which may help to narrow down YTL mobile bsuiness loss from –RM192m to –RM100m FY13.

My forecast.
a) factor in UK water tariff hike
b) YES 4Q13 profit RM92m
c) Narrow profit margin from Powerseraya and IPP Msia & Indonesia
d) Didn’t include CAPEX and potential revenue/profit hike from new business- Jordan (30%); Australia (Elentra 33.5%); Ringgit depreciate


4Q13 total revenue RM4b; net profit RM407mil
FY13 total revenue RM15.9b; net profit RM1.17b
EPS 16cen ; with 12x PE @ 2014= RM 1.92

Am I too optimistic?

story going play is coming 4Q2013 , YTLP profit driven by UK WATER BUSINESS- upward adjusted tariff + on going 200 YEARS - AUSTRALIA AND NEW JORDAN business

YTLP allocated RM5b for YES CAPEX.
Assume APRU RM 55 monthly
with 500,000 subscribes, profit margin at 70%; EBIT from YES= 500k * 55* 12 * 70%= RM 231m/year ( Capaex RM200m this year)= YES might narrow loss /break even

will it be good if ytl power declare special dividend 20cen?

hgn 33 - y repeat previous posted article /news ?

Go Go Go YTL Power-WB. Will try to look around

Don’t worry; it will come to RM1.68 before RM2.00. We shall give them more time. 4Q13 earning release around 16/8/13 shall beat analyst estimate; especially rising tariff from UK business +RM weakening; but margin pressure on YTL Power Seraya (factored in)

1 more thing, if YES is good. Perhaps one shall focus on YTLE share; who receive leasing fee from YTL Communication at RM75m/yearly + 10% out of YES’s revenue > RM500m/ year. YTLE’s pretax margin at 70%. Do your maths on the bottom profit.

hng33 – pls correct me if I am wrong. YTL 4G is eventually a 3.5G technology; with speed max cap at 20Mbps. Whereas MAXIS LTE can run as fast as 70Mbps. Full LTE can run superb fast at 300Mbps (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTE_(telecommunication))

My concern: when full LTE implement in 2014-2015 and rising competition by other telco, how should YES maintain and enhance their market share? Are they allow to upgrade YES speed from 20Mbps to let say 100Mbps? If yes, how much will the CAPEX cost in 5000 tower?

Thanks for all sharing. Definitely YTL POWER is undervalue, shall worth more than RM2.

An outstanding analyst will always do a comprehensive research in every single business under his sector coverage; else he will be no different with his peer.

YES- max speed 20Mbps; LTE max (300Mbps; Maxis LTE max speed 75Mbps) – What should YTL do in order to maintain and enhance it’s market share in mobile data?

Watch out for coming 4Q13 earning release (FY13); announce after Raya

NONE of the analyst factor in the potential revenue and profit as highlighted from in below:

(i) UK water segment – tariff hike in 2013
(ii) Earning growth in 200 years concession in Electranet
(iii) Jordan’s revenue and earnings after 2017
(iv) Potentially breakeven and profit contribute from YTL YES segment
(v) Ringgit depreciate from RM2.96 to RM 3.25 as August 2013

CIMB research target RM2.55 (highest among others)
How much do you think YTL POWER shall worth?

Agreed with bubu on the valuation issue (CIMB only RM2.55) .However, I will take note on the highlights in my coming research; which didn't cover in my previous report

Moreover , 4Q2013 (release around Mid-August 2013) result shall be able to beat most analyst expectation in term of revenue and net profit; mainly driven by :

(i) UK water segment;
(ii) Lesser lost in Mobile industry - YES
(iii) Future earning driven by 33.5% stake in Electranet, Mobile (YES) and Jordan business (2017)

What do you all think?

Today received an email from unknown person target YTLP @ RM2.50 with reasons below :

a) Electricity charges in Indonesia will rise an average 4.3%, effective April 1, 2013
http://www.balidiscovery.com/messages/message.asp?Id=9266
http://www.jakartaupdates.com/2085-the-electricity-price-increased-effective-1-january-2013-for-large-customers

b) 30% stake in Jordan- potential earning capacities from next IPP (500MW) since 2017
https://www.enefit.com/news/-/news/2013/06/13/enefit-jordan-given-green-light-by-ministry-of-environment-to-proceed-with-oil-shale-fired-power-plant

c) Average household water bill to rise by 3.5% to £388 a year
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/9849057/Average-household-water-bill-to-rise-by-3.5pc-to-388-a-year.html
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/feb/09/rising-water-bills-profits

d) Underestimate of 33.5% in ELECTRANET- - revenue and price hike in 2014-2018

e) Potential earning from YTL Communication via YES, after subscribes more than 600,000

Most analysts have not impute the 33.5% YTLP stake in Electranet ~ price hike in their financial modelling. May increase YTLP YTL revenue and bottom-line over the long run http://www.aer.gov.au/sites/default/files/ElectraNet%20Revenue%20Proposal%20.pdf