Hibiscus looks to be breaking out of the saucer pattern that began from Sep2018. Long term TP objective is RM2.50.

From Zerohedge: Corn Exceeds $8 A Bushel For First Time In Decade On Shortage Fears

High food prices are here to stay for the near to mid term. CPO prices should be buoyant. After 6 months of high prices, more analysts will start to revise their low CPO price forecast. Kind of short sighted of them.

If Bstead closes above 80sen, we will be saying hi to the RM1 handle.

showing strength

Cup and handle formation observed with a TP of RM0.83.

Today's fall to RM1.08 has closed the gap that was created on 14Mar in which Hibiscus opened at RM1.14 and had a low of RM1.13. That 3sen gap was bound to close and it did today. Today's gap RM1.34 to RM1.24 is also bound to be closed sooner or later.

Food security will be a major concern once the stockpile dwindles. Many European countries have started banning food exports be it grain, edible oils, meat, etc. Be prepared for higher food prices in the 2nd half of the year especially so if the Ukraine-Russia war is protracted. This will be the tailwind that supports the elevated palm oil prices in 2022.

Many European nations are starting to ban food exports:

Serbia: Ban corn and veg oil exports from Mar10
Hungary: Ban all grain exports with immediate effect
Ukraine: Wheat, oats and meat

Food security is going to be a major concern for most countries going into 2nd half of the year once the stockpile dwindles. Food prices will stay elevated.

Thanks for the cheap sales in Hibiscus. Oil is not going down so soon. It will only come down after demand destruction.

Tin hit US$51,000/t on the LME. SHFE at US$58,170/t. Fat profits for Q1'2022.

Hold on to your MSC shares. Base metals are exploding higher. Nickel prices rocketed from US$30k/t yesterday to US$83k/t right now. Zinc has surged up close to 9%. Tin is likely next.

All in sustainable cost for Q4 is US$16.8k/t.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/tin-price

Tin price just zoomed to US$46,650/t. This explains why MSC suddenly sprang to life.

"Were disruption to Russian volumes to last throughout the year, Brent oil price could exit the year at $185/bbl." - JPM
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JPMorgan then repeats what Goldman said over the weekend, arguing that given the supply shock and barring a breakthrough in peace negotiations, an immediate demand destruction is the only way to rebalance the market in the short term.

In practical terms, this translates into two cases for the future of oil prices: an ugly, painful case which however does not crash the global economy, and a potentially devastating, global recession (if not depression) inducing one. This is how JPM lays them out:

In the first scenario, JPM admits that so large is the immediate supply shock the bank believes prices need to increase to $120/bbl and stay there for months to incentivize demand destruction, assuming no immediate Iranian volumes. This could result in a 1.2 mbd hit to this year’s demand, bringing 2022 oil consumption 550 kbd below 2019 levels.

The far scarier scenario is one where disruption to Russian volumes lasts throughout the year. In that case, Brent oil price could exit the year at $185/bbl, likely leading to a massive 3 mbd drop in the global oil demand.

Tin crept past US$46k/t. At this rate, we would be hitting US$50k/t in the near term.

Quietly climbing to RM0.69.

Market is concerned about the civil suit brought by the Govt again the Indonesian subsidiary.

The Board of Directors of TDM wishes to announce that TDM Berhad has been informed by its Indonesian subsidiary, PT. Rafi Kamajaya Abadi (“PTRKA”) that it has been served with a summon together with a statement of claim dated 27 December 2021 by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry of Indonesia.

1. The Ministry of Environment and Forestry of Indonesia as the Plaintiff is claiming against PTRKA as the Defendant for the alleged action against the law committed by PTRKA in the fire incident case occurred in 2019. The total damages claimed is IDR270,807,710.959 (approximately RM79,381,562.00), the details are as tabulated below:

2. The Plaintiff is also claiming a total compensation of IDR731,036,640.00 (approximately RM214,287,963.00) against the Defendant in order to make good an area of 2560 hectares affected by the fire incident..

The Company is analysing its potential financial and operational impact against PTRKA, the Company and the Group.

As at the date of this Announcement, there is no material impact on the operation of PTRKA and the Company’s current financial year. However, the Company is consulting with its auditor on any potential impairment to be made.

PTRKA has appointed its Indonesian legal counsel to advise and represent them in Court. As advised by the legal counsel, the Company are confident that there are grounds of defending and dismissing the said claims.

The matter has been fixed for the first hearing on 10 January 2022 at the Court of Sintang, Kalimantan Barat, Indonesia.

The Board of Directors of TDM Berhad wishes to announce that on the court hearing of the case at Pengadilan Negeri Sintang, Kalimantan Barat, Indonesia on 31 January 2022, the panel of the judges has directed the parties on the following:

1. PTRKA to file its statement of defence and counter claim on 14 February 2022;

2. The Plaintiff to file its reply to defence and counter claim on 21 February 2022; and

3. PTRKA to file its reply to the Plaintiff's reply to defence and counter claim on 1 March 2022.

Russia has just been kicked out of the SWIFT banking transfer system. Looks like oil prices and selected commodities such as CPO, Platinum, Palladium, Aluminium, Copper will jump on the opening tomorrow.

When disrupted chip supplies end and EV gains full traction, tin price is going to the moon. There is no cheaper alternative to bond components to PCBAs.

Shanghai Tin Spot is at US$53,500/t. The LME tin price will soon close the gap to Shanghai's. MSC is going to hit double digits when this happens.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/tin-price

Tin price hit US$45,791/t. That's US$8,000/t more than the Q4'21 tin price achieved.

Record-High Global Food Prices Imminent As Edible Oil Soars

Thursday, Feb 24, 2022 - 06:00 PM

Edible oil prices soared this week, prompting fears that record-high food prices could be imminent. On Wednesday, soybean oil futures in Chicago hit their highest levels since 2008, and palm oil, the commodity used in thousands of food products, jumped to new highs.

Soybean prices increased 1.4% to 71 cents per pound, the highest level since 2008. US canola futures are also on the verge of an all-time high, and palm oil in Malaysia hit a new record high of $1,434 per ton.

Drought has crimped soybean crops across South America this season. Rival oilseeds like palm and canola have also suffered shortfalls from adverse weather and labor shortages. And escalating political tensions involving Ukraine and Russia pose a risk for sunflower oil exports, which the two countries dominate," according to Bloomberg.

Ivy Ng, the regional head of plantations research at CGS-CIMB Securities, said, "for the supply side, everything that could go wrong, went wrong; problems "hit all the key producing countries, whether it's palm oil or a competing oil. There's no reprieve in the short term, and people are reacting to that."

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie warned that shortages across commodities could send higher prices. He said markets are "incredibly tight from a physical perspective" ... "we are out of everything, I don't care if its oil, gas, coal, copper, aluminum, you name it we're out of it."

Soaring edible oils could be the next catalyst that catapults the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Food Price Index (FFPI), a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, to a new record high for February. New FFPI data is expected in early March. As for now, FFPI sits near a record high in terms of January prices.

Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Manzoor Trading in Lahore, Pakistan, said the edible oil is in "uncharted territory," and prices could climb even higher. He said, "the global supply and demand situation is a very, very big concern."

For those in the Western world, food inflation is already leaving a mark on lower-income households, and the "worst has yet to come," according to John Allan, chairman of Tesco Plc.

Value of their shareholding in Bplant(RM1.12), Pharma(RM0.83), Affin(RM1.75) and BHIC(RM0.46) is RM2.89B. No of Bstead shares = 2.026B. Value of these shares = RM1.43 vs Bstead share price at RM0.60.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/malaysia-smelting-corp-likely-see-record-fy22-says-kenanga

KUALA LUMPUR (Feb 23): Kenanga Research has maintained “trading buy” on Malaysia Smelting Corp Bhd (MSC) with a fair value of RM5.55 and said MSC is likely to see a record financial year in the financial year ending Dec 31, 2022 (FY22).

In a note on Wednesday (Feb 23), the research house said the world’s largest toll smelter is riding on the current commodity rally, which saw both its earnings and share price escalating to all-time highs.

It said with supply of tin expected to remain tight, especially from Indonesia, China and Myanmar, with elevated demand still rising due to usage such as in the electric vehicle segment, tin prices are expected to remain high in the near future.

“Given the persistent supply-demand imbalance, the record tin prices of more than US$44,000 (about RM184,052)/MT are likely to stay elevated in the near future.

“Together with its tin mining unit going for secondary mining, which will boost volume, and the efficient new Pulau Indah plant, MSC is likely to see another record in FY22.

“MSC’s share price will ride on the commodity rally wave.

“At 11 times FY22E forward earnings, which is the peers’ average, MSC is valued at RM4.62 based on the consensus tin price forecast while at the forward tin price, it is priced at RM6.48,” it said.

In view of strong price prospects, Kenanga said MSC should be valued at RM5.55, which is the mean of these fair values above.

Fitch Solutions raises price outlook to US$42,000 a tonne

Tin prices are likely to break new record highs this year and stay elevated in the longer term as rapid recovery in demand has outstripped the slow pace of supply growth.

“The slow pace at which global tin supply has recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic has been outpaced by the rapid recovery in demand.

On Thursday, tin for delivery in April was quoted at 328,550 Chinese yuan a tonne (US$51,878) on Shanghai Futures Exchange. On the London Metal Exchange, the metal was quoted at US$43,785 a tonne for cash and the three-month contract ruled at US$43,700.

Fitch Solutions said tin prices will continue to edge higher over the years as demand will “continue to be robust and increasingly outstrip supply”.

Demand picks up during pandemic. The World Bank said growth in electronics and photovoltaic installations had significantly increased demand for tin.

FSCRIR said the main reason for demand growth to outstrip increase in supply is the Covid pandemic led to increased sales of medical and home equipment and personal devices. All these products use tin for soldering.

“The resulting reduction of global refined tin stockpiles has continued to force prices higher, and left the market significantly exposed to price increases, that was especially seen during China’s power crunch,” Fitch Solutions said.

Besides medical and home equipment, tin is becoming consumed in a big way by the greening of the economy as tin solder is used in photovoltaic cells.

Price outlook revised. The current bull run of tin has resulted in Fitch Solutions raising its price outlook for the metal to US$42,000 a tonne this year from its earlier projection of US$32,500.

RM4.60 wall demolished. Shows institutional interest in the company. RM5 shortly.

30sen wall looks to be demolished this afternoon. A close above 30sen would be technically very supportive of further upside chart-wise.

The push up is resuming.

WTK has 12k hectares of plantation. Their palm oil mill is also quite efficient with an OER of 21.7% - 22.5% and PKER of 5.1%. Plus they have a net cash backing of 25sen/share. So essentially you are paying 28sen for WTK at today's prices.

2nd wind this afternoon session? Looks promising.

wow, what a strong accumulation this morning. Already hit 30sen.

Upward re-rating coming shortly. 30sen by this week's close?

Further shortage in the tin market.

China Tin to undergo routine maintenance

Feb 15, 2022

Guangxi China Tin Group has halted production at its Laibin smelter, according to ITA intelligence.

The company began the shutdown procedure on February 10 in order to carry out routine maintenance. ITA understands that the refractory bricks will be replaced during the 45-day closure. This maintenance period could result in 1,200 tonnes of refined tin being unavailable to the Chinese tin market.

Guangxi China Tin is one of the world’s largest tin smelters, producing some 9,200 tonnes of refined tin last year. The Laibin Ausmelt furnace has an annual capacity of 25,000 tonnes of tin, while the company can produce a further 160,000 tonnes of metals including lead, zinc, silver, antimony, and indium.

It would be good to close the gap that was created on Monday at RM1.09 before resuming the upward trend.

JP Morgan has helped to turn the tide in favor of the planters. The local research houses will start to follow the leader and lift the cap on their RM2.8k~3.2k FY22 and FY23 CPO price estimates to what is realistic reflecting global food shortage amid the high fertilizer prices. RM2 BPlant TP may be achievable after all.

From Kenanga:

TDM Bhd (Trading Buy)

• TDM is involved in: (i) the oil palm plantation business (via the group’s 44,247 hectares of planted oil palm at its estates in Terengganu and Indonesia); and (ii) the healthcare sector (as the group owns and operates four specialist hospitals in Kuala Lumpur, Petaling Jaya, Kuala Terengganu and Kuantan).

• After posting net losses in the preceding two quarters, the group turned around with net profit of RM13.3m in 3QFY21, lifted mainly by stronger plantation contributions.

• For the 9MFY21 reporting period, TDM’s YTD net earnings stood at RM5.6m (versus net loss of RM2.2m previously). The plantation business logged a PBT contribution of RM34.5m (+55% YoY) while the healthcare division made a marginal PBT of RM1.2m, which combined to offset losses from the investment holding & others segment.

• With the current month CPO futures price now hovering at a record high of RM5,869 per MT vis-à-vis its YTD average CPO price of RM4,135 per MT, the plantation division is expected to show an even stronger earnings jump going forward.

• Technically speaking, TDM shares are currently on an uptrend after bouncing up from a recent low of RM0.225 in late January this year.

• And the upward trajectory will likely extend as the strengthening trend in the Parabolic SAR, MACD and momentum indicators are signalling a positive bias for the share price.

• On the chart, the stock could climb towards our resistance thresholds of RM0.33 (R1; 20% upside potential) and RM0.36 (R2; 31% upside potential).

• Our stop loss price level is pegged at RM0.225 (representing a downside risk of 18% from the last traded price of RM0.275).

Some tree shaking going on here. Hoping to scare some holders to sell their shares.

Wow, 27.5c wall wiped.

Tin short squeeze to the upside coming. Current stocks last only 3 to 5 days.

- Sep2021 qtr TDM's plantation business posted a revenue of RM75.7m and an EBIDTA of RM41.6m.
- Dec2021 qtr estimate for the plantation business is revenue at RM104.2m with an EBIDTA of RM64.6m.
-TDM just broke the major resistance which started from 2013 last Friday.

Having surpassed the 77-78sen resistance since the end of 2019, Bplant is now set to hit the next resistance level of RM1. A beautiful set of Q4 results would help us shareholders get there. GLTAH.

NP. I hope you are right in your forecast. This will make more fund managers wake up to the potential of MSC and jump onto the MSC train which is about to leave the station for double digit prices.

AISC = all in sustainable cost. This is the terminology used in mining to capture cost related to the operations and development of the mining property which is recurrent.

You may be right. Let's see. I am being conservative.

Tin has just surpassed USD44.4k/t today on the LME. I wonder when will it reach USD50k/t on the LME? I think by June is not unrealistic now that tin price at the Shanghai exchange is at US$53.3k/t.

MSC is very likely to trade around the RM5-6 range after the Feb quarterly results. Bear in mind, the Dec quarterly(Q4'21) tin price average is USD37.5k/t. With the same production profile as Q3'21, this new tin price will contribute an additional RM13M to the bottom line for Q1'22 with a USD43k/t average.

Smart money are nibbling up whatever shares that are put up for sale.

Do look at Metals X Ltd listed in the ASX. Giant cup forming from 2018. Soon to be mining Area 5 which is very high grade. Produces around 4-5kt of tin (50% share) at an AISC of AUD22k/t. Easily a AUD1 share. I think it will go to AUD3 when tin hits AUD100k/t.

Alphamin shares have also hit 15 year high. MSC owns around 18m shares of this DRC tin miner which is generating incredible profits. Their reserve ore is at 3% tin.

In 2020, the AISC was only around USD12k-14k/t. Oil price was also a lot lower then. Taking into account the substantial rise of oil, using the latest Q3'21 AISC is prudent. Hence the profit sensitivity to the tin price alone is not that accurate.