- MSC produced closed 560t of tin concentrates in Q3 at an AISC close to USD17.2k/t.

- Using the same production profile and tin average price at USD37.5k/t and USDMYR at 4.18, MSC's tin mining division will generate an estimated pretax profit of RM47.5m in Q4'21 compared to RM38.7m in Q3'21.

- Now with tin going higher averaging at USD43k/t in Q1'22, the tin mining pretax profit will be much, much higher, estimated around RM60m.

- If tin prices stay the same at USD43k/t, the entire pretax profit is a whopping RM240m for 2022. Now we all know the demand for tin is going to climb higher and not lower, so MSC's profits will likely be much, much higher.

- This is a RM10 share easily once the quarterlies are out showing the tin mining's stellar earnings prowess.

Tin Guru on twitter said the following: "IoT is upon us. Every connected device contains a printed circuit board. Tin is the glue that joins all of the components together. Resource nationalism for semi-conductor production is goIng to drive tin demand. I remain bullish tin in the short, medium and long term."

Also once the global chip shortage issues are addressed, you can bet on the demand for tin to explode from here.

Tin price is at nearing $44k/t at the LME. It will soon catch up to the SHFE price at $52.4k/t. MSC's mining production cost is $12k/t.

Shanghai tin Jan22 32,300 contracts at $50,700 per tonne!!! LME price is almost $40,000 per tonne. MSC as predicted will be in the RM4-5 within these 2 months.

Go MSC. Go MLX(Aussie tin). Both at multi year highs.

Tin now in the $40k/t territory.

Tin priceon the LME just breached USD39k/t. And the dollar has also strengthened against the RM. So this is a double catalyst to the share price. Once the Q4 results are out in Feb'22, MSC will likely be trading in the RM4-5 range.

Shanghai tin spot prices is currently at USD45k/t. And the tin supply is dwindling. MSC's all in sustainable tin mining cost is around USD10k-12k/t which is very low despite rather low grade tin ore.

Sabah cluster produces 6,500 bopd at an opex of $15/barrel while the Anasuria cluster produces around 2,500 boepd at an opex of $20/boe.

Thus without the Repsol contribution, an with Brent crude price of $82, Hibiscus will have a gross profit of US$215m.

And the price of oil and gas is climbing by the day. Just look at the coal, gas and crude prices crippling Europe, India and China power plants.

Breakout from the 2018 downtrend and also the horizontal resistance of 76.5sen.

The Board of Directors of MMC wishes to announce that Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad (“Bursa Securities”) has approved the Company’s request for suspension in the trading of its shares from 2.30pm on Thursday, 3 June 2021 pending the release of a material announcement by the Company.

The request for suspension is made under subparagraph 3.1(b) of Practice Note 2 of the Main Market Listing Requirements of Bursa Securities.

This announcement is dated 3 June 2021.

Upon a request made by a listed issuer, a suspension may be allowed by the Exchange, at its discretion, on the basis of the following reasons:-

(b)where the listed issuer intends to:-
(i)make a material announcement; or
(ii)hold a press conference to make a material announcement,

Tin insider just tweeted the following:

1289t draw on Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse stocks today. General market feeling is that this was for local consumption and not for export to the West. If so, and Chinese market is now short, then next leg higher on prices is imminent.

Not sure if anyone noticed that MSC traded in Singapore has formed the cup and now the bottom of the handle. When the handle completes, the target is $1.12 or around RM3.50 in the immediate term.

@Lawman, MSC via their wholly owned subsidiary Rahman Hydraulic produces around 2,600t of tin concentrates per annum. Their production cost is really competitive at an all in sustainable cost (AISC) around US$10.1k despite their low grade ore. Market leader Alphamin with their 3.8% tin ore reserve are producing at US$12.2k AISC for their 10-12,000t/year.

FYI, when tin prices shoot up, the mining business will be the cash cow. I envisage with the green energy mandate, Paris agreement, demand for tin will continue to be high year on year.

Q4 2020(Actual) mining pretax profit = RM12.04M (tin price = RM76.87k/t)
Q1 2021(Actual) mining pretax profit = RM26.29M (tin price = RM100.11k/t)
Q2 2021(Estimate) mining pretax profit = RM37-40M (tin price = RM118.9k/t)
If tin hits US$40k/t, mining quarterly pretax profit = RM68M
If tin hits US$50k/t, mining quarterly pretax profit = RM92M

On your question regarding the tin concentrate processed by MSC Butterworth, the percentage is less than 10% as their refining capacity is quite sizeable around 40,000t/annum. Pulau Indah's capacity is much larger at 60,000t/annum.

The refining business is more of a tolling charge. Margins are not as handsome as mining of the tin ore. So I hope this answers your question.

I like Carimin. RM0.35/share net cash backing.

Tin is in critical supply deficit. There are very few tin deposits globally and if a new one is found, it will take years to get to mining.

Q4 2020(Actual) mining pretax profit = RM12.04M (tin price = RM76.87k/t)
Q1 2021(Actual) mining pretax profit = RM26.29M (tin price = RM100.11k/t)
Q2 2021(Estimate) mining pretax profit = RM37-40M (tin price = RM118.9k/t)
If tin hits US$40k/t, mining quarterly pretax profit = RM68M
If tin hits US$50k/t, mining quarterly pretax profit = RM92M

60sen close?

saya sokong

The FOMO will happen once we break the recent RM2.85 - RM2.92 resistance.

Flying now

Highlighted in RHB top small cap companies for 2021. Fair value assigned RM0.85-1.03.

Tin prices just surpassed $29k/t.

Last FY2020, MSC's mining turnover was RM160.4M and a profit before tax of RM31.3M. Assuming the same mining rate and costs, the margin expansion comes directly from the tin price. Average tin prices in 2020 were at RM71.6k/t (FX RM4.20). At current prices of US$28,500/t (FX RM4.10), tin price is at RM116.9k/t, and a mining production of 2,200t of tin concentrate, MSC will register a revenue of RM257M. Pretax profit will expand to RM128M. 4X folks. And with a tax rate of 32% per FY2020, we can infer a net profit of RM87M or EPS of 22sen from mining alone. All this projections are on the conservative side as Datuk Patrick Yong did mention about increasing the daily tin production by 15% from 2020 in his recent interview.

With tin supply in a deficit state, many are expecting the same scenario that happened to Nickel in 2007 in which it raced from US$15k in 2006 to hit US$50k the following year. Many experts are postulating for this occurrence this year or the year after.

The catalyst is already there to propel MSC to greater heights. Many who are at the sidelines looking for Q1 or Q2 results for conviction will rue the chances when the ship has sailed away.

WTK is having a net cash position of RM80.6M, translating to a net cash backing of 16.7sen. What a steal at these prices.

1st TP is around 55sen. I hope it cuts through it like a hot knife on butter.

I have the same observation as samflyer. They want the 5 day average to be low so that the warrant exercise price is around the price when they first mooted the idea. I will continue to back the truck here as once the price has been set, it will fly.

Comfort is forming a cup and handle formation. Cup portion done. Handle low also looks like done. TP RM4.20.

A lot of gwailohs are focusing on tin miners such as Alphamin and MetalsX. No one seems to be discussing about MSC who they categorize as a smelter. MSC last year produced around 2000t of tin. With such buoyant tin prices, MSC is going all out to increase their mining capacity.

On the group’s tin mining operation, Group MD Patrick Yong says MSC looks forward to higher daily mining output with the introduction of new technologies and process mechanisation at its RHT tin mine.

“From a daily production at RHT of 9.5 tonnes per day in 2020, we have already reached 11 tonnes per day.

“Our efforts in acquisition of land to increase our mining output is prioritised and we hope to reach our target of 12 tonnes in a year or so, ” adds Yong.

Apparently MSC has issued an email to their customers on the constrained refining capacity which will recover in 9 months time. This sent speculators into a buying tin frenzy.

An insider in the Tin World tweeted this:
Speaking with one LME broker this morning who started the day short 40 lots (200 tonnes) and then turned position around on MSC news. Drove price up $500 dollars doing so! Liquidity disappearing - pre-cursor to an exponential move higher??

Last year, Comfort's operating cash flow from operations alone was RM402m. That's really exceptional.

If we thought, last year's results were incredible, I think we will be bowled over with 2022 results. For a start, Q1 2022 will be better than Q4 2021 which recorded an EPS of 23.65sen. Details are in the quarterly:

In this current quarter (4QYE21), the Group has achieved the highest quarter profit in the history despite sales were adversely affected by global shipping condition. Pandemic-related safety measures have lowered efficiency at ports, leading to delivery delays. The turnaround time for containers returning to Malaysia became longer and many shipments were delayed due to constraint in containers and vessels. The ripple effect of the shipping situation has caused higher inventory than usual and 25% of shipments in this quarter to be delivered to 1st Quarter of the financial year ended 2022 (1QYE22). The Group is confident to put up a strong performance in the near term.

The flexibility of the Group’s manufacturing process and customer base outside the medical market has allowed the Group to effectively manage the shortage of synthetic latex in the market. Speciality premium gloves manufactured by the Group from natural latex are equally in demand by the Group’s partners worldwide as its synthetic latex counterpart. To meet this increase demand, the Group will commission new production lines that increase production capacity by 33% towards financial year end 2022. The current market environment has allowed the Group to work with our partners worldwide to lock in commitments for the purchase of gloves.

MSC is majority owned by Straits Trading Co who is helmed by the richest woman in Singapore, Chew Gaik Khim.

Last quarter, MSC withheld 7500t of tin inventory. That inventory value went up by RM227m using the $27.1k/t price.

yes, kind of strange. Lumber futures hit limit up. So did corn, soybean, wheat and many other commodities. Palm oil futures at RM4342/t.

Looks like TRC just completed an inverted head and shoulders. 49sen is in the cards as the immediate target.

MSC in their Q4 report holds around 7500t of tin in their inventory. At today's prices vs end of Q4, this is worth an additional RM154m.

Simply Wall Street has Careplus fair value at RM26.64.

Closing the down gap is in play (from RM3.46(9Nov) to RM3.00(10Nov)). Once this is closed, it is super bullish.

Not sure which states will be affected by the upcoming lockdown. If Negeri Sembilan is not part of the states affected by the upcoming MCO, then Careplus can continue to produce. If the other suppliers are affected, I think it may create a supply shortage and further hike up the spot prices.

I am not sure if anyone noticed that Careplus just had a BREAKOUT of a descending triangle. This reversal is SUPER BULLISH. If we are to measure the peak of the triangle to the base (RM5.83 to RM1.95), this distance is RM3.88. Breakout happened at around RM2.33. Thus the target price to the upside is the a 100% extension of the downside from the breakout price = RM2.33+RM3.88 = RM6.21.

The upcoming Quarterly will be the boost for Careplus to hit the TP.

Careplus in 2019 has a production capacity of 4.14b gloves per their 2019 AR:
Careglove Global - 2.40 billion (100% share)
Careplus (M) - 1.32 billion (50% share)
Rubbercare Protection Products - 0.42 billion pieces (100% share)

They had an 85% capacity and out of these 2.4b were latex gloves(69%), 0.9b nitrile gloves(26%) and 0.2b surgical gloves(5%).

Latest 3rd quarter report states a production capacity of 4.62b gloves. Using the same breakdown, we can expect as a base case assumption of (69% x 4.6b latex gloves), (26% x 4.6b nitrile gloves) and (5% x 4.6b surgical gloves). Using an ASP of $60 for nitrile gloves/1k and $40 for latex and surgical gloves/1k, we can project Careplus will have a base case turnover of US$208m for the next 12 months.

3rd quarter turnover was RM122m vs expected RM213m(USD:MYR of 4.1/1). Can we expect the Q4 turnover to be per the projected figures and with a net profit margin of 35%, the net profit to be around RM74.6m? Certainly looks plausible.

RHB on the recent Rubberex report stated rising ASPs. For the base case, Rubberex is projected to have a net profit of RM255m by producing 2.5b nitrile gloves, sold at US$60 per 1000pcs.

With a RM300m net profit, this gives Careplus an EPS of around 54.5sen. A 10x PER will value Careplus at RM5.45 and at 15x earnings, RM8.18/share.

That was the base case. In the recent Qtr 3 report, Careplus stated they will be expanding production to 10.5b gloves by end of 2021. So the upside is huge if glove demand remains robust throughout 2021. Looks like this recent sell down is an opportunity to add a good growth stock to one's portfolio.

What if the ASP is much, much higher than the $60/1k pcs? Careplus valuations may hit double digits. With the recent surge in covid cases worldwide, glove prices will only trend higher.

I certainly am looking forward to the upcoming quarterly. May Lady luck smile on all holders. :D

game on. 37c resistance finally broken.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9051427/Surgeon-General-Jerome-Adams-says-people-need-wear-masks-vaccine.html

US Surgeon General Jerome Adams says people still need to wear masks and socially distance after they've been vaccinated because it doesn't prevent infection just severe illness.

Surgeon General Jerome Adams appeared on GMA on Monday as the first vaccines were rolled out across the US.

He said that Pfizer vaccine protects people against severe disease but not from getting infected.

It means that after people have been vaccinated, they still need to be careful.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9051427/Surgeon-General-Jerome-Adams-says-people-need-wear-masks-vaccine.html

US Surgeon General Jerome Adams says people still need to wear masks and socially distance after they've been vaccinated because it doesn't prevent infection just severe illness.

Surgeon General Jerome Adams appeared on GMA on Monday as the first vaccines were rolled out across the US.

He said that Pfizer vaccine protects people against severe disease but not from getting infected.

It means that after people have been vaccinated, they still need to be careful.

US Surgeon General Jerome Adams says people still need to wear masks and socially distance after they've been vaccinated because it doesn't prevent infection just severe illness.

Surgeon General Jerome Adams appeared on GMA on Monday as the first vaccines were rolled out across the US.

He said that Pfizer vaccine protects people against severe disease but not from getting infected.

It means that after people have been vaccinated, they still need to be careful.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9051427/Surgeon-General-Jerome-Adams-says-people-need-wear-masks-vaccine.html

You are welcome JR. Just piecing all the info I have. The upcoming Jan quarter will shed more light as to whether the projected forecast is realistic.

Anyways, it is good to see the major shareholder adding more shares at RM3.05. This indirectly tells us that he too thinks Careplus is going to do a lot better in the coming quarters.

Careplus in 2019 has a production capacity of 4.14b gloves per their 2019 AR:
Careglove Global - 2.40 billion (100% share)
Careplus (M) - 1.32 billion (50% share)
Rubbercare Protection Products - 0.42 billion pieces (100% share)

They had an 85% capacity and out of these 2.4b were latex gloves(69%), 0.9b nitrile gloves(26%) and 0.2b surgical gloves(5%).

Latest 3rd quarter report states a production capacity of 4.62b gloves. Using the same breakdown, we can expect as a base case assumption of (69% x 4.6b latex gloves), (26% x 4.6b nitrile gloves) and (5% x 4.6b surgical gloves). Using an ASP of $60 for nitrile gloves/1k and $40 for latex and surgical gloves/1k, we can project Careplus will have a base case turnover of US$208m for the next 12 months.

3rd quarter turnover was RM122m vs expected RM213m(USD:MYR of 4.1/1). Can we expect the Q4 turnover to be per the projected figures and with a net profit margin of 35%, the net profit to be around RM74.6m? Certainly looks plausible.

RHB on the recent Rubberex report stated rising ASPs. For the base case, Rubberex is projected to have a net profit of RM255m by producing 2.5b nitrile gloves, sold at US$60 per 1000pcs.

With a RM300m net profit, this gives Careplus an EPS of around 54.5sen. A 10x PER will value Careplus at RM5.45 and at 15x earnings, RM8.18/share.

That was the base case. In the recent Qtr 3 report, Careplus stated they will be expanding production to 10.5b gloves by end of 2021. So the upside is huge if glove demand remains robust throughout 2021. Looks like this recent sell down is an opportunity to add a good growth stock to one's portfolio.

Not sure if it is sentiment that is driving the prices today but operators may be capping the price before pushing.

TRC is going against the flow today with a 71% buy rate as of 9:50am. Something looks to be brewing. I noticed the same pattern last Friday when it recovered after the sell off.

Great recovery today. If US futures is any indication, TRC may resume its upward move.