Obviously someone trying push down to collect but lack of financial strength like GMT shorties...
More like local security house trying to make some lunch money before AAC sales

My mind is going Wild----Radzi--hahaha

Some people thought I am boasting a good life whenever i mention Happy Hours.....But it is
KL traffic that forced me into Happy Hours Bar----Leave at 6pm--I will arrived home at 8:00pm
Leave at 7:45pm I will also arrived home at 8:00pm

As a Chinese we pay respect to our elders first...In China biz, you pay respect to the person in
power first ( whether you get any biz at all).....whiskey, Rolex, maybe a Condo

Waiting for more thrash talkers in aax to push the price down further

This morning I was crunching AA # (left long time ago)and aax # for a best buy while preparing
a report for a client.......So many thrash talkers in AA means a lot of people want to get in but
the price is a little high.....anyway i might get some # wrong but i bought AA at 2.69 and 2.70
and also aax at 0.37
Felt so relax now after my lunch presentation

orangkuat, i have used 31 planes instead of 30 so the number is a bit high---apologised---
i will calculate it again tonite after my Happy hours

mr pauper i just asked my accountant but i disagreed with his explanation so i just leave it for
next quarters(for answer)....anyway if the loss is 100m---deferred taxes will watered it down---
anyway we don't know at what level China want its currency "at" before Trump take over...
Rest assured it is # of passengers and most important average Fare value that call the shot bcoz
Oil already hedged
Most people thought ringgit will keep plunging to nowhere (hahaha) But what they forgot Asean + China will loan each other US$ when in needs (already agreed long time ago)...Furthermore, Indonesia +Thailand will follow Malaysia in "informal Currencies control soon" They wouldn't
allowed ringgit to devalue too much bcoz Indonesia + Thailand are exporting the same products
as Malaysia

When Tony launch his PP everyone said run bcoz of dilution-----AA when up to 3.00 (3 months)
Now Tony said sell AAC, AA going down bcoz AA will receive 'flip" money-----just wonder what biz is AA in----"roti canai" biz

Don't blind by "noise".....Should consider 4Q16 operating profit could hit 900million---i may even
underestimate this amount (someone check)----i did a rough check on aax and it too surprise me
----AA carrying capacity reaching 90% in 4Q-----forex loss will be whitewashed by deferred Taxes

sorry deferred Taxes should be more than 50m

AAX will not benefit anything from AAC sale...period...
But if Tony wants to replace the revenue hole left by AAC then aax will come into place-----
AA will bleed into red with falling ringgit (after aac sale )
Currently Tony is shifting Goal post in AA forex account ( will reconcile in 4Q but by then revenue
jumps in 4Q so the impact on profit will look tame )

My only concern is aax Indo----some kind of restructuring----

sayakami----I think you have underestimated aax profit by a very Big margin for 4Q...
Seat capacity has increased to 1,560,780 with 30 planes ( if 31 planes are used?) Even with
1,560,780 at 84% (load factor)-----passengers carried =1,311,055 and with average fare around
RM620 (10% up 4Q15)------Revenue from fare alone is 812.8 (excluding ancillary ) That is 200m more then 3Q-----I believe Free Seats and heavy discount seats are minimum in 4Q bcoz Tony
got to make money in holiday season Quarter -----

Yesterday i was mulling on how can Tony list Asean Holding into HongKong stock Exchange
without AAC ------actually he also don't know how---hahaha----for very obvious reason----
AA ticket sales brings no profit or very little---all profit comes from leasing unit (most forerunner
already discuss this issue in length) And those Online Air shopping (AirWalmart) and Selling
buying habits are still in Dream State

It is either by design or by luck, Tony got AAX with deal marker Benyamin----Ben has been making many new routes in 2016 (my favourite is Hawaii) but Iran appear a winner.....I think Taax
Eastern European/Bangkok route in 2017 will generate alot of Volume for aax ( any direct flight
will kill atleast 8 hours of transit time)

The expected 2016 aax net profit--core will be 300million ( 1Q16--4Q)---I think Tony is
going pump up aax volume and net profit in 2017 (capitalising on low fuel price) by expanding
rapidly to Europe----Come 2018, aax got delivery of newer, more fuel economy planes which
will maintain 2017 profit even if fuel price might increase------3 years of straight profits and
aax will replace AAC for HongKong Stock Exchange listing

But aax be will absorbed into AA grouping first (if the above is true )
I think it is most likely a share swap between AA (no cash involved)and the timing is after AAC sale (will pump up AA price for share swap )

Mr Ong is the oldest Billionaire stock trader in Malaysia.....As far as I know he doesn't has a
CFA title or a Degree-----he is just smart and very stingy(you already know what he pays for pjd)-----OskH stock price goes up or down on his command-----not what the market wants

while waiting for transit plane, i decided to look at RHB results----alot of saving but no dividend
declared yet....
Going back to OskH and do a Layman estimate for 3Q
1) Only 5% of the expected 10% of PJD remaining shares are acquired after June --2Q
2) OsKP Hotel biz doesn't look Good in Johor Baru after doing a look see-look see tour in
Johor for lelong properties.
3) Atria Mall biz is Dull so far stores still open
4) Do not expect Interest Rate to go down below 3% yet(ringgit under pressure)so RHB is still Okay for time being
5) Properties market trend---everyone should know by now

I think OskH share price will remain at this level or slightly down till RHB declare Dividend

There is nothing you can do with OskH price until Olh goreng it

To kill time, i tried to Bully 860000 but he said he is a CFA

Maybe should come every morning to greet Olh with a four letter words ( to remind him that
it is his responsibility to push OskH price )

Now waiting for 860000 (CFA) projection for 3Q16---deadline 30Nov

592%??? Revenue 1Q 348,287M (PAT 72,071)---- 2Q 309,527M (PAT 43,748 )

https://selangorkini.my/2016/11/isu-pengambilalihan-splash/

Tony Pua said Puncak received 577million to compensate NRW loss ( something new to me)
As i said before Ongkili did receive a Number from private valuer (state appoint)-----Now he
turned around and said state needs to hire a independent value (delay 6 months) But actually
Federal wants to hire a International Valuer------All this are just delay tactics---drag on and
hopefully after 14GE with BN controlled Selangor---Rozali received another 577million for
pain and suffering

Wah----CFA---860000-----looks like got "barang"

Just impress us with a OskH ----3Q16 spreadsheet---remember to link us to the site with your Dobi Mark 860000-----30Nov deadline-----I am sure CFA qualification----closed one eye also
no problem

http://www.mystock118.com/2016/11/24/china-weakens-yuan-dollar-rate-below-6-9-mark/

I mentioned on 23Nov that China will Not let Yuan to fall too much considering Trump will be
the next president in Jan 2017......Big Potato really act fast.......
This is Good for AAX & AA with more than 50% Load from China-----When forex loss is minimised
profit can hit 100M in 4Q and 1Q17 ( will try estimate on Sun )

Usually i don't comment on Calvintaneng but bcoz I got nothing to do while waiting for my
transit plane-----Let start with Calvin's recommendation in Jan 2016 till now
1) Perisai 0.45 now 0.05 ---down 88%
2) Kbunai 0.07 now 0.045----down 36% ( he said he sold his house to support at 0.06 )
3) BJcorp 1.00(tp)----now 0.325 ( conned by Pak Misai---ya-ya Calvin is easily conned)

One year ago Calvin told everyone Not to Buy aax at 0.20 but it is 0.395 now (100% UP)
His mission now is to spam aax everyday to ease his suffering from extreme envy-----
Most of the time Loser is Born

For your info, 90% is Not the required Number.......At 30%, you can make a general offer and
if many investors sell to you and you arrived at 80% or 85%-----you can also take the Co.
private bcoz Bursa will terminate any counter with less 15% public circulation (maybe this # has
changed but i think it is around there )

86K---I was following the topic people are discussing at that time---not your topic----anyway do
you understand what "they" are discussing at that time.....That is the reason Nobody answer you.....I didn't make any comments at that time bcoz what "they" said was correct.....

maybe not nasi lemak buyers----10mins suddenly increase 5million buy at 0.395

most ppl enter for 25% gained in one day but it didn't happen so immediate sell down------
now only nasi lemak buyers--buying good discount

29 Nov closed Pjd acquisition ----30 Nov---3Q results---should capture 95% of Pjd profit into Osk

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-18/china-holdings-of-u-s-treasuries-drop-to-almost-four-year-low

Actually China keeps selling US treasuries

Last few days i was in China having a chit-chat with a "big potato" and i found many Chinese big
firms are also having US$ denominated loan (weakening of reminbi is killing them) and they are sending representative to Beijing
to speak to a Bigger Potato about their problem-----with Trump getting into Office in January, I think China will strength Reminbi soon or else Trump will accuse China of manipulating its
currency again------This is Good for AA and AAX

I suspect many local funds will be buying aax for 4Q16 and 1Q17 (both Q will produce max
results and later switch to mother AA for AAC )

Just wait a few more days for Tp......usually aax don't have post results rally-------but i am very
suspicious how Kenanga can predict exactly 12million profit before load results and almost
know average price was 501-----Kenanga usually push slowly (one day 25% up---never)

Trump expected fiscal stimulus (100Billion) is too small (1.5%) for a 6.55Trillion GDP
-----China spends(6-7X)more than that------ASEAN + Korea is very close to this number-----
Dow run could be OverDone------Bloomberg commentators are also caution lately---
So i expect US$ strength will not last long

You do not look at forex gain/loss with MYR/USD bcoz total Malaysian passengers is only 30%++
During 4Q15----Reminbi/US$ is 6.2 (very high) and Aussie dollars also very strong---both
markets control about 60% of aax total load

Wait till you see Olh do One finger push up then you will faint

Considering Olh holds 70% of OskH and his "mai cai" another 20%+++, OskH is really a very
illiquid stock and only Olh can move OskH but he is Not pushing...and would Not allow others to do so.
Luckily OskH carries a One billion loan from RHB bank to carry out this acquistion exercise or
else Olh can easily take Oskh private again ( last time he offer 1.25 for OskH but rating is 2.50)
Anyway with 10% RHB bank shares in collateral for the one billion Loan, Olh no longer concern
some Datuk will come and Raid Oskh for RHB Bank Shares

aax will be like Trump Tsunami today----only stock in Bursa that got some Oommp

Average fare only 501---even lower than 2Q (526)-----Just blow my estimate away (541)------
Sure, promotional fare(free tickets) for New Routes (Iran and others are taking the toll on profit
margin )
All that said---4Q will has less promotional Fare and much higher average fare and US$ should
around 4.40
Bloomberg news(survey) just mention AAX is 110% better than all its peers (worldwide)

I don't know how Tony operates its hedging but i know how those big traders in China do their
hedging ( almost on daily basis ) It is messy but forex loss will be minimised to just a few %

aax got another 3 days play before AA results ( i expect reasonable good--didn't go thru anyway)
I think this the reason--operator is delaying the push-----tonite is the nite

If Tony didn't increase fare in 3Q then profit should be around 50-60m -----but i think Tony did
increase fare so i expect around 90m profit------If Tony hedged forex bcoz of US presidency
election then my RM650K whiskey should be on the way

Better booked my RM650,000 whiskey first after tonite no stock

After 29 Nov (pjd acquistion will be unloaded), Olh will be free to Goreng Oskh

Come 14GE, do you think Khalid will still be Ahli Dewan Undangan Negeri--Pelabuhan Klang???
I think he will loose his deposit if stand for Election bcoz got Bersatu,Pas,Pkr, Dap and Umno
fight for the same seat....Anyway he is still walking with his hands bcoz Bank Islam is hanging
up his Legs ( Politics very vindictive)

While waiting for morning flight i found this 10 themes from Goldman Sach:-

Goldman's 10 themes are:

1) "Expected returns: Only slightly higher."
2) "US fiscal policy: A pro-growth agenda."
3) "US trade policy: Concerns are likely overdone."
4) "EM risk: 'Trump tantrum' is temporary."
"Trump and trade: Hedge with RMB."
"Monetary policy: Focusing the toolkit on credit creation."
"Corporate revenue growth recession: Signs of inflection."
"Inflation: Moving higher across DM."
"The next credit cycle: Kinder and gentler."
"The 'Yellen Call' 2.0: Now with contingent knock-in."

Here's more detail on four of Goldman's 2017 themes.

Look at #4.....emerging market risk: "Trump tantrum is temporary"------Ringgit Devaluation
just Temporary-----come December-----everything is christmas again ------come Chinese
New Year nobody remember ringgit at 4.40 before------

I like Benyamin idea to fly from Australia to Europe and maybe Australia / Hawaii.....This Freedom
flight will isolate AAX from competing directly with MAS and also generate forex gain.....Once
aax landed in Hawaii-----Los Angeles will be next target-----This is a different biz model from
AA---now have to face ringgit devaluation and a slug fest with other budget airline for China
market-------If ringgit keeps devaluating Mas will suffer massive forex loss and may cut routes
again in 2017--benefiting aax with cross over load-----I am not saying aax is safe but i think
Benyamin is smarter than Mas Ceo in managing forex loss

I think there is no surprise in forex loss----it is about 30million after receiving some data from
Big Chinese Trading Co just now (have 30% biz in importing Iron Ore from Australia )
If Tony increase fare by 3% in 3Q then profit is around 90m ( like to qualify that if Tony hedged
against US$ in 3Q then forex loss should look much better---let see on Tuesday night )

I think rally will come next Tuesday-----better this way-----let market calm first......Many Big export
counters will release results Friday------we can gauge their forex loss and compare with AirAsia----
I think AirAsia need some serious marketing bcoz the whole of Asia currencies are affected so
AA cannot increase ticket price if other budget airlines didn't increase price---
AAX is competing with Full Fare Airlines

Australia passenger carried in 2017 will increase bcoz Aussie dollars strengthen in tandem with
US$ but Reminbi is falling---I think Chinese Budget travelers will fall but Biz traveler will use
AAX more so they contra out each other.....New routes to Hawaii and England will enjoy significant
increase in 2017 bcoz US$ strength gives tourists more spending power

Currency falls across Asia --Not Malaysia alone----So all airline will adjust ticket price next year
with Full Fare airlines hardest hit (like Mas)----
Many Full Fare passengers will migrate to Air Asia------2017 AAX might hit 85% Load factor in Lean time and 90% Load Factor (just my guess) in Peak Months

I Fly a few time each month so my rational represents most Biz travelers ( cut cost--biz not good)