dont be suprise if they still take order only by fax in PO

My impression on Armada is that the current share price reflect that the company will not be able to secure any more new project going forward and therefore will no longer be a viable business.
In other words, if the company is to closed down today, this is about 5-10% discount to what it can salvage.
If you believe this to be the case, then the price is fair value.

I personally believe the company is still able to secure new FPSO project. AND there is potential to venture into new businesses such as LNG, carbon capture, exploration & production.

I believe current shareholder shares my view otherwise they would have sold out and move on.

Company needs cash for projects. You get favorable term when you are not desperate.
The fact that they are securing new loan reflects that the management thinks there is potential projects coming.
I would be more skeptical if they were to pay down all the debt with their current cash holding (~900million as of last quarter).

Make your own judgement.

The RM514.4m impairment is for both the Armada Kraken and SC asset.
Do we know what is the impairment amount of each?

Could it be they do not see any potential order on their SC asset for quite some time? or potentially selling it and not have take a huge loss later?

From my understanding the hsr will mainly be a privately funded initiative.
Is the operation going to be something like the PLUS highway where the govt will guarantee a minimum sum of revenue yearly? If not then the company will need to build and operate it as a profitable entity?
To my knowledge almost all hsr project loses money but there is definitely positive benefit to the country's economy as whole. And because of this, most hsr project are undertaken as a public infrastructure project.

My concern is if it is a too risky business for YTL to be venturing into HSR as an investor?
Make good sense to bid as a contractor here, but not so as an investor - am I wrong?

UOBKH HIGHLIGHTS
Bumi Armada (BAB MK/HOLD/RM0.52/Target: RM0.58)
ONGC Announces First Oil Production Of FPSO Armada Sterling V (ASV) On 7 Jan 24
WHAT’S NEW
 Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has kick-started oil production from its much-delayed flagship project in the deepwater KG-DWN-
98/2 block. With the commencement of production from the M field (part of the US$5b Cluster-2 project) in the deepwater block, it has
completed the project’s second phase of development. The final phase is targeted to be completed by Jun 24, which will then see a gradual
ramp-up to reach a planned peak production of 45,000 boepd and 10million cubic meters (MMcmd) of gas.
 FPSO ASV5 is a JV that is 30:70 owned by BAB and Sharpoorji, for the KG-DWN 98/2 field. Note that the FPSO is already behind schedule.
ONGC had expected first oil by Nov 21 from its flagship deepwater KG-DWN-98/2 block, and then after the COVID-19 pandemic, after
several missed deadlines (May, Aug, Sep and Oct 23).
 Earlier, the Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli said the Cluster-II field, which had already commenced gas
production in Mar 20, is targeted for commercial crude production in May 24.
 The field development plan of Cluster-2 project has two components, 2A and 2B. While 2B is pure gas, 2A was anticipated to produce
77,305 barrels of oil per day (boepd) over 15 years. However, ONGC’s recent projections are only for 45,000 boepd.
COMMENT
 We think ASV5 progressing to operations is a net positive development, but more clarity is needed. Note that management shared
that they had recognised standby rates since Mar 23. Also, the US$930m loan facility achieved financial close on 9 Sep 23, although this is
still contingent on certain conditions such as receiving the final acceptance certificate, According to CareEdge, the previous rating agency
for the project loan (discontinued in Oct 23), the capex incurred was about US$1.17m, and the FPSO will be chartered to ONGC for nine
firm years.
 No change to 2023-25 earnings forecasts of RM601m/RM676m/RM711m. Our JV/associate forecasts for the three years are RM46m/
RM68m/RM82m. We retain our forecasts for now as the earnings profile of this FPSO is not clarly seaet The growths will be largely driven
by an improvement in FPSO performance after suffering the many setbacks prior to 2020. We do not assume a strong likelihood of its
subsea vessels securing works.
 Maintain HOLD and SOTP-based target price of RM0.58 (5x 2024F PE); within this the ASV JV valuation is unchanged at
RM0.03/share. The developments are largely in line with our expectations. At this juncture, we continue to see balanced risk-reward – even
though BAB now has a multi-year low gearing, this may not be reflected as a positive market factor. BAB is increasingly focused on
securing gas projects (capex sizes: US$0.2b-1b) vs FPSOs (mega capex: US$3b). BAB still remains as a discount to Yinson’s 15x PE
valuation, but both peers are valued within 5-7x EV/EBITDA. While Yinson holds many growth projects to justify a higher 7x EV/EBITDA, we
think BAB’s risk-reward is now balanced, after factoring in BAB’s execution risk and the lack of new contract catalysts.

I believe Armada has realized the flawed nature for the FPSO contractor. They bear the huge chunk of the capital investment and risk, but capped and limited return in the form of charter rate. Take the Claire incident as an example, a small job with award value of approximately RM1.5B has the potential to nearly kill it.
I think it is good that BA has learn from its lesson and be more prudent in winning contract.

Just compare Yinson and BA financial standing, and one will realize the humongous risk that Yinson has placed itself in. I have no detail on Yinson contact terms, but I am certain if there are not adequately protected, any mishap will be disastrous.

look at supermax quarterly report on foreign currency translation.
RM49m for June period.
I estimate they have at least 300M in USD.
Another 60m in foreign currency translation for Sept quarter ??

Supermax Market Capitalization is RM 2B
Cash and Bank Balances alone is RM 3B, with practically zero debt.
You guys do realize it can keep buying itself up to 100% at this price and still have RM 1B cash after that right.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Offshore-Drilling-Is-Coming-Back-With-A-Bang.html

Sapura's 50% stake in SapuraOMV is value at around RM6b.
If I am Petronas, and offering RM0.30 per share. It would cost only RM6b to take over Sapura.
I would then approve all the Covid claim and give Sapura more job so it will be back to profit.
Keep SapuraOMV and relist the other unit back in a few years.
Nothing too lose.

it is clear that both the political divide agree that Sapura needs to be saved.
Only difference is one side demand some audit for accountability and the other side did not set this as a requirement.
Later Mr. PM also says Sapura should be safe with the forensic audit.
That means both side of the political divide will agree to helping Sapura.
Notice I mention helping and not the word bail out because one side is ok with helping but not bail out.

Anyone knows what the valuation is like for SapuraOMV?