@Beary, hence my question was directed to chc2222 who said the company would be faced with a bleak business outlook, and hence I am asking for the factual projections for this bleakness. You are merely beating around the bush with customary Malaysian analogies.

@Beary, sure, if that's what you want to do. But really, simple profit numbers would do. Right now there are zero projected numbers and logical reasoning to back up all the naysaying hot air. Where's the numbers to support the claim of 'bleak business outlook'?

@chc2222, I am merely responding factually to statements that you have raised. You said the future for VS's business is bleak. Why? You have not elaborated on this, but have now ventured to talk about the old girlfriend and wife analogy.

@chc2222, great that you mention about future. Let's discuss. Why do you say so? USD/MYR? What are the potential effects to the business and by how much?

@hng33, sighs, mad? at a person that cannot even provide an intelligent discussion? oh c'mon, thanks for bringing out a chuckle in me this morning.

@hng33, read my comments first before displaying your ignorance, and address them one by one. If you do not have the mental capacity to do that, then you are not worth my time replying. Please ask any successful investor about that seasonality issue before you talk to me.

@yeohhh and other naysayers, let's see if business fundamentals prevails. I have been transparent with my entry prices, RM1.16 during last selldown and never sold off at RM1.28, waiting to top up if it goes to RM1.00. See y'all on end-Friday just to check back.

@yeohhh it has happened a few times, maybe 3 to 4 times sell down and rebound happened over last few months. I collected at RM1.16. Did I sell at RM1.28? No. Am I going to sell now at RM1.22? No. What am I going to do? Top up if it reaches about RM1.00. If not, hold and wait.

@faralenz77, VS has been gaining more biz and delivering profit growth since the days of USD/MYR3.20s. If their customers were fine then, why should they give less business now?

@yeohhh, what price do you want it to go down to? RM1.00 ? We all know that is an illogical price for this good company. But when it goes to RM1.00, would you buy then? Most likely no as there is huge selling volume. So make your sell calls carefully.

@yeohhh @wei8, go have a look at announcements. The directors and family were buying under personal name at around 1.16 for quite a significant sum of money. It is not a company share buy back. You can sell now, but remember to come back at a price point that is comfortable for you.

@bigheadsheng, then you should be on neutral side and maybe earning some money already. Also getting decent dividend of at least 4% per annum.

@bigheadsheng, you didn't get the free warrants?

@WiseEye, it is clear that 'Earth' has now deleted all his negative (or foolish) comments because they hold no substance under close scrutiny and simple questioning by investors like us as it makes him look stupid. I am sure he will be back with more such comments when there are other worried investors asking questions here. I am also guessing that it may be one of the many fake accounts 'they' own to post senseless comments to serve their own interest as you mentioned.

@Earth "Are you genuine investor?" --- You have no answer to my questions on the statements you have raised? How does the current development on USD impact the business of VS, and please provide your sensitivity analysis. If you can't, it just means that you have no idea about their business and are here posting negative points just for fun.

@Earth "3.9167 sure die"@KG1967, so please explain in detail how all these developments may impact the business of VS and it's financial performance.

Play? I have been INVESTED in construction and property all along. I can tell you that property is currently giving very good dividends while construction is now on its upcycle trend 'again'. Yet I am still holding them and not selling, until there is a fundamental change. You can continue to 'play'.

It is a very simple analysis.

Is VS profit growth slowing down? No. Increasing profitability and ROE.
Are they grossly overvalued compared to peers? No. P/E <10x with >3% DY
Are they displaying losses? No. In fact, foreign operations have just returned to profit.
Are they losing any customer? No. Increasing and diversifying, big brand names.
Are they having bad cashflow and choking with debt? No. In fact, improving.
Any potential for accelerated growth? Yes, check RHB and UOB report on potential new contracts, also latest seeing machines deal may lead to new developments.

So.. What else do you want from a growing business? 3x P/E and 10% dividend yield?

Those that invested here, don't have to feed the trolls, they're just trying to stroke their own ego. Serious investors don't even have time for banter let alone post so many zero value posts in a day. Always diversify, but not too many, so that you can be well versed with the businesses you own. I'm into importer, exporter, consumer, construction, and property, only one or two to a maximum of three stocks for each sector, and hold some cash for new opportunities. Interestingly, VS is down despite strong and growing fundamentals, I am guessing there are internal news that we are not privy to. I am still holding after topping up at 1.16, and despite multiple rebound and opportunities to sell at a profit at 1.20+ to 1.28, I am still holding, because, the principle of value always come first. If profits start to weaken, then start reconsidering. Right now? No valid reason to sell other than sentiment. Selling on sentiment is going against the advice of the time tested gurus like buffet and klarman who have seen it all over the past decades.

Great, take profit for those that have reached their TP, and time for new investors to come in for future growth.

@ros, no one is hiding, just resisting from posting comments with no value, predicting this and that. I have topped up previously at RM1.16. Despite multiple rebounds & opportunities to sell at a profit at above RM1.20+ to 1.28, have not sold and still holding for the long term. Will top up again if it touches nearer to RM1.00. My theory, hold as long as business growth is good.

It is a very simple analysis.

Is VS profit growth slowing down? No. Increasing profitability and ROE.
Are they grossly overvalued compared to peers? No. P/E <10x with >3% DY
Are they displaying losses? No. In fact, foreign operations have just returned to profit.
Are they losing any customer? No. Increasing and diversifying, big brand names.
Are they having bad cashflow and choking with debt? No. In fact, improving.

So.. What else do you want from a business? 3x P/E and 10% dividend yield?

@Banglala, is that not right? I am merely replying the statements you have raised.

@Banglala, you just said that retailers are selling off because they wrongly think that it is a big forex loss. That is one of the imperfect info at play and gives us opportunity to dollar cost average/top up at a better price. Assuming P/E remains constant, next year's price would be dictated by the materialization of today's projected profits.

@Banglala, that's good isn't it? In basic economic theory imperfect information provides opportunities to make money. 6 months to 1 year down the road, when core earnings are significantly up year on year with no sign of slowing down, what would happen logically?

Just looked at the numbers again. VS China and Indonesia back in profit mode. Previously was loss making. Great news. Expect more profit contribution in coming quarters.

wonderboy combine that with the throwing around of many unrealistic figures like 'market is expecting 80m profit in 2q16', seems like some people are getting desperate or scheming about something.

Leehualoon, weakest Ringgit does not necessarily mean anything. It is the process of sudden weakening that allows them to gain, due to earlier determined forex rates on the contract. You can see the sudden weakening in USD/MYR from Aug onwards, which means the contract must have been prior to that. These things get adjusted all the time, both buyer and seller are not stupid, give and take. With USD/MYR being stable during Nov-Jan, it is not surprising that there is no gain, presumably as the contracts have been adjusted. Also qoq this is their normal seasonal production trend, we should be looking at yoy instead.

Why silly? Isn't that a TP that's being thrown around here?

Yes and I believe that RM0.20 is coming in the next three days and it will rebound to rm0.50 next month and I can retire the following month.

hng33, I actually hope it will go down due to illogical thinking, so I can top up more. Month end paycheck coming soon.

@BecomeImHappy, great, then let us know what price you are throwing until, so we can know the bottom to pick up more.

@manji, the same for property sector. Even with good results you still have depressed price, due to sentiment. Profit track record will be the key determinant of future price, while sentiment is only a passing phase. You can also look at sentiment as good opportunities for you to enter.

It doesn't matter, in fact, the presence of illogical people might even be great opportunity for small investors like me, wait for salary to come in and buy at cheaper prices. Next year, when profit is higher than fy2016, as expected, of course it would be higher price. Logic prevails. I like illogical people.

Not desperate. Just hope more people can use their brains to provide more logical analysis so that we can all benefit from new insights.

@hng33, taking first quarter and annualize without factoring in seasonality is for silly "investors". Please read more news and investment reports to see how professional investors analyse. Or go for a free course at least.

@hng33, firstly, that's a totally different topic. You were talking about results declining q-o-q that's why people will sell, which is quite an absurd logic. Now you suddenly change topic? And secondly, even if we remove forex gain in Q1, growth was still 30% y-o-y, which is very good for any company. Even if we project forex losses in upcoming quarters, worst case scenario which is very unlikely, is still a massive RM140m net profit for FY2016.

@wiseeye, it is futile to engage with noobs. I have only commented sparingly since I joined i3, and usually only during volatile periods where a call to buy or sell is necessary, such as when VS dipped to below RM1.15 recently, it is good to discuss with some of the experienced ones here.

@hng33, Q2 has always been the lowest season every year and would naturally show a downtrend quarter on quarter, but a growth year on year. So what are you talking about?

@Beary, so how much should the coming QR grow from last year, to be deemed good?

@sostupid, predicted price is based on number of units to be sold, usually guided by management after receiving forecasted orders from a vendor. This is the usual case for manufacturing companies. You have already proven yourself wrong by saying they are venturing into the sales of coffee machines, which they are not. It is just a new machine version. To verify the projected number of units and where this info came from, why don't you just call the analyst who wrote the report? I am quite sure you will fall in love with the meaning of your own username.

@sostupid, your post on the new coffee machine and how it won't sell well is reflective of your own lack of understanding on VS's business. Hint: it is not their own brand. Even while plagued with such ignorance, you are still commenting like an 'expert' on their business, the banks' scheming, the castles in the skies, etc. it really brings the meaning behind your username to a whole new level.

@2centsense, who said to blindly believe. Just use their analysis as a summary report and guidance. After all, we read auditors report, BNM reports, IMF reports too don't we. A higher target price is usually in line with (i) profit growth (ii) re-rating. If you bought it due to growth prospects and undervaluation compared to peers, there is no reason to sell when there is a new target price. Until you find another better stock with stronger growth prospects, or you believe that there may be a downward correction in the short term due to external issues.

To say 10% of net profit goes to directors salary and therefore we shouldn't buy, is plain nonsense.

Go take up a logic class, go back to kindergarten, or something, or shoot yourself already. Net profit is already after operating expenses including salaries.

As an investor, I would gladly pay a director even RM500m if he gives me 10x in net profit that is growing every year.

Those that are calling for a buy, what is your TP and based on what reasoning?

@Tan KW @hongwei85: "Since there next two quarters are traditionally weakest quarters, hence there is no hurry to buy in. Next quarter result is expected to be weaker, compare to current quarter."

I do not see how this point can be a strong reason against buying in. Seasonality does not mean 'weak' or 'weaker', it is just a trend. Since the author cited seasonality, if we want to judge if the results are stronger/weaker, we must compare the upcoming results with the same quarter last year.

@mcchuah, can consider sell off a little first to average out, since you have invested a big sum. Who knows it might dip again. Maintain good cashflow for new opportunities.

@mcchuah, what did I tell you? hope you topped up when it was -10% your entry price. Also, glad that you did not become your own enemy like many others.

@mcchuah, That's a good price. Top up when it touches <RM1.20 (-10% from your original investment). Who gets worried about +/-5% fluctuations? Most people are their own enemy.

@mcchuah, what's your average price and total value held?