PUTRAJAYA (June 6): The government may defer or terminate the RM55 billion East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) which is still being studied, said Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad. 

“We want to negotiate the terms to ensure that we don’t have to spend so much money on the ECRL, because we cannot afford it. We also found that the contract includes payment according to a specific time. 

“So far, we can determine that the work done is so much less than the payments that have already been made. The project will be studied, we can either defer or terminate,” he said in a press conference after his weekly cabinet meeting. 

Previously, Dr Mahathir had said the government would renegotiate the terms of the contract — which he described as strange — with various Chinese companies.

The ECRL contractor is state-owned China Communication Construction Co Ltd and the loan is from the Export and Import Bank of China (Exim).

The Edge weekly, quoting sources, had reported that the ECRL can be built for under RM40 billion but the contract was inflated to RM60 billion, and is now expected to cost as much as RM70 billion once it was signed in 2018. 

The rail link, if built, would connect Port Klang in Selangor and Pengkalan Kubor in Kelantan. It will be constructed in two phases.

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/386549

Trade war between US, Mexico n US starting.

（吉隆坡31日訊）過去1個月，富時大馬綜合指數回吐年初以來的漲幅。市場人士認為，在內憂外患夾攻下，市場充斥不確定性因素，所以在利多和利空因素拉鋸之下，馬股6月份料陷入橫擺狀態。

綜指于5月9日大選后波動劇烈，選舉成績公佈后的首個交易日（14日）最高上探至1876.62點，最低下跌至1797.14點，來回波動79.48點。雖然當天外資狂賣馬股，最終本地基金和散戶扶盤下，綜指當天收在1850.42點。

隨后，接二連三出現的利空消息，如重查一馬公司（1MDB）舞弊案、國債高于預期和取消大型基建工程等，進一步打擊外資信心，綜指回吐今年以來的漲幅，並下探至1709.51點。

昨天崩跌56點或3.18%后，馬股在5月份最后一個交易日收復部份失地，今天反彈1.24%或21.34點，收在1740.62點。

值得注意的是，馬股今天全場成交量為46億零613萬股，但成交值高達92億6539萬令吉，是成交量的1倍，顯示今天大資本股的交投炙熱，其中馬銀行、頂級手套、國家能源、IHH醫療保健集團和聯昌國際都躋入20大熱門榜。

根據大馬交易所數據，今天外資在馬股淨賣2億1793萬令吉；本地基金和散戶分別淨買1億零527萬令吉和1億1267萬令吉。不過，整個5月份，外資凈賣55億3284萬令吉的馬股。

綜觀亞洲主要股市5月份的表現，除了澳洲悉尼普通指數、台灣加權指數和中國上證指數之外，其他市場全線下跌。

區域股市中，跌勢最重的是富時大馬綜合指數，按月下滑6.94%或129.75點。表現最好的則是台灣加權指數，按月上揚2.04%或217.08點，週四閉市時收在10874.96點。

業績差強人意　馬股料沒看頭

總結5月份馬股大跌的原因，包括：（一）新政府公佈更高的國債數據，引起市場驚慌，加劇外資拋售；（二）為了減輕債務，政府宣佈取消幾項大型基建工程。由于建築股去年為馬股貢獻不少漲幅，導致馬股近幾天跌勢慘重；（三）美國升息，外資紛紛撤出新興市場。這也導致令吉走貶、投資者擔憂新興市場或公司償還美元債的能力；（四）歐元區緊張的局勢，包括意大利重新舉行大選，可能演變成脫歐公投。

英特太平洋證券研究主管馮廷秀接受《東方財經》詢問時指出，由于意大利的新政府更傾向于加大投資力度以推動將經濟成長，導致該國國家債券走弱。

「該國已經債台高築，因此債券持有人對此感到擔憂。」

馮廷秀和資深抽佣經紀何國傑都認為，6月份，市場將稍微從驚嚇中恢復，並維持橫擺。

何國傑預測，需要等到一馬公司（1MDB）舞弊案有所進展后，市場才會穩定下來；馮廷秀則認為，最慘烈的下跌狀況已經告一段落。

此外，5月杪是上市公司公布今年首季業績的旺季，市場人士認為，總體表現差強人意。

展望6月，市場人士表示，股市經歷一輪急瀉后，不太可能迅速恢復漲勢。

馮廷秀表示，多數公司的最新業績表現不佳，因此雖然綜指多隻股項下滑，但由于盈利也下滑，總體本益比（PE）依然沒有上升。

「受盈利表現拖累，相信6月份股市雖然會稍微恢復，但上行力道有限，預料不會有看頭。」

在投資建議方面，馮廷秀指出，由于令吉走貶，可以留意科技股和出口股。他補充說，受0%消費稅和世界盃帶動，消費股表現也令人期待，預料對它們的短期投資情緒有利。

何國傑則指出，油氣股近期受到油價下滑的影響，許多股項如沙布拉能源（SAPNRG，5218，主板貿服股）和恆源（HENGYUAN，4324，主板工業股）紛紛下跌，投資價值已浮現。

大型建築項目接二連三被取消，建築股哀鴻遍野。對此，何國傑表示，建築股主要是受到大環境的影響，一些基本面良好的建築公司仍然可長期持有。

不過，馮廷秀則認為，在大環境不確定性提高的當下，目前不是進場的好時機。

Q1 18 result is worst than Q2, Q3 n Q4 17. Nothing to shout. Q1 18 result is just better than Q1 17 only.

Don't be so positive on tomorrow. Try to study what are happening in US on trade war & Italy. Studies on why most of the countries' index is dropping like hell on today.

Q1 earning is out. Rm25mil net profit. So so only

seems wb will open at 0.215

Agreed v beaten2016. Sunway is a stock for long term investment. Normally it wil go up more in the time of corporate exercise like bonus issue, new listing of arm n others. For example, new listing of suncon in 2015, bonus issue in 2017. This is its style. Dont expect gain in short term

Price has crossed breakout at 1.21, i expect more uptrend wil come in short term. Hope it can go back to 1.55

For reit, i am interested in ytlreit n cmmt only. High dividend.

Last few days, talked debt is 65% of GDP. Now, become 80% of GDP. Eh..... scare ghost meh....

KUALA LUMPUR (May 24): Malaysia's finance minister said on Thursday the country's total federal debt and liabilities amounted to RM1.087 trillion (US$273.39 billion) or 80.3% of GDP.

Lim Guan Eng told a news conference the figure included federal debt, government guarantees for entities unable to service debts, and additional lease payments on public-private partnership projects like schools and hospitals that the government is committed to.

"Let me emphasize that the fundamentals of the economy remains strong. The financial sector is stable, the banking sector is well-capitalised and there is sufficient liquidity in the market," he said.

Malaysian PM Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad's has estimated the national debt at RM1 trillion, while blaming the ballooning debt on abuses by the previous government led by Datuk Seri Najib Razak.

Samuel, in last year, most counters were up mainly because the strong inflow of foreign fund. Now, foreign fund lari.... if no drop, then it is good in short term. Dont expect it wil b up in short term. I think worldwide will has big crashing in next 1-2 years. I am out first. Klci may b technical rebound after big drop. I will wait it climb back MA200 n MA100 first b4 decide to add.

Samuel, i also have some loss. Still keeping some wb but not a lot as i sold part of it b4 election. Plan cash out from market. Just keep whatever existing in hand until it recovers. Will not add further. US's national debt n consumer credit card debt breaking highest record, even higher than d figure in 2009 recession. When FED increases interest, condition will become worst. Will stay away first.

No need to add more at this moment. Keep more cash in hand. In May n June, 1MDB needs to pay huge interest. 1MDB has been insolvent. Wait government to pay for it. In middle june, there has FOMC meeting on interest hike in US. In middle/end june, there may has meeting between US n north korean. A lot of uncertainties now.

hope epf & tabung haji will support further...

klci broke MA200. Bearish will be in longer term.

During today's big drop in klci, mrcb has no drop. Very good

Abolishment of all toll highway will costs 55b. Building of hsr also cost 50b. If u have this money, which will u choose :)

I think d project will be on hold until financial becomes more comfortable. No matter how, still need to pay interest for d 1 trillion debt. Better strengthen d financial first

Agreed. Wait n see....

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/382467

Adcool. Wat u think on it, continue or cancel?

http://www.klsescreener.com/v2/news/view/381983

U know how much of 1 trillion?

Wait EDL compensation until end year. Neck is very long now :)

So so result. In term of net profit, Q1 18 is better than Q1 17, but weaker than Q2, Q3 n Q4 17.

I start to sell it gradually & hope to clear it off before earning announcement in end May. I believe without income from EDL, probably the Q1 earning will not be good.

（吉隆坡14日讯）希盟执政将会检讨部分大型基建项目，分析员认为，东海岸铁路项目被腰斩的风险最大。

安联星展研究分析员认为，希盟政府在竞选宣言里指出，将审查所有授予外企的大型项目，因此，料会出现项目展延、重新谈判甚至完全取消三种结果。

该投行认为，在数项前朝政府提出的项目中，总值550亿令吉的东海岸铁路，被新政府腰斩的风险最高。

该铁路项目总长逾600公里，每公里造价高达9000万令吉，由中国进出口银行贷款，且获得当局豁免消费税。

“基于该铁路的建造成本，我们认为，它被取消的风险最高。”

前首相拿督斯里纳吉已将东海岸铁路项目，在不经公开招标下，颁给中国交通建设股份有限公司（CCCC）。根据财政部条例，任何超过2万令吉的工程都必须公开招标。

若取消项目，将承受项目罚款条例，且抹掉价值165亿令吉的承包工程合约（占总额的30%）。

因此，该分析员相信，新政府会优先针对合约重新谈判。

隆新高铁料持续

而在隆新高铁方面，由于这牵涉马新两国关系，双方也签署了协议，因此分析员认为，其发展料会持续。

此外，最重要的是，隆新高铁还未颁发项目给AssetCo，预计会展延至年杪，让新政府有一段时间进一步审核。来自工程交付伙伴（PDP）的该高铁两项分包工程，预计在明年初颁发。

180515x1105_noresize

新政府仍支持“一带一路”

无论如何，这些被部分外界看似针对中国在我国项目的举措，被新任首相敦马哈迪的言辞打脸。

马哈迪早前提出，新届政府仍支持中国的“一带一路”倡议，更发出个人信函给该国主席习近平，了解对方拥有相关铁路技术，需要更大规模的列车连接我国与中亚乃至欧洲。

不过，分析员提到，相关主要问题牵涉到一些项目的成本，以及我国财政的债务负担。

“在不确定的情况下，我们仍期望新政府能务实施政和促进我国发展。”

180515x1106_noresize

金务大首当其中

安联星展研究下砍3家本地建筑公司投资评级至“守住”，包括金务大（GAMUDA，5398，主板建筑股）、WCT控股（WCT，9679，主板建筑股）和双威建筑（SUNCON，5263，主板建筑股）。

在目标价，该投行下砍幅度最大的是金务大，从6.70令吉下调至4.73令吉，主要因为该公司过去最依赖于政府大型项目。

相较于金务大，WCT控股和双威建筑的主要项目来源是自家项目，因此，受政策变动的影响程度较低。

不过，由于还未出现清晰发展动态，该投行维持所有追踪公司的财测。

相关新闻：

新部长及政府顾问稳信心 马股没掀恐慌抛售

前朝政治建筑股跌停 敦马慕尤丁概念股飙涨

I think for those who wanted to sell it, they already sold it in the opening when KLCI dropped 32p. I start to collect it.

KLCI has been recovering. Now, it is dropping about 6p only.

（吉隆坡10日讯）希望联盟名誉主席敦马哈迪医生说，会致函中国国家主席习近平，建议兴建更大的铁路，毕竟中国在兴建铁路方面掌握先进技术，预计未来原料的运输将会越来越多，除了从中国运往欧洲，物货也可通过铁路运至韩国、日本等。

马哈迪在记者会上表示，对政府而言，中国倡议的一带一路略战不是问题。

他认为，东盟是非核区域，他不希望会有战事。

（吉隆坡10日訊）第14屆全國大選迎來史無前例的政党輪替，外資或政治變動及憂心前景不明朗而掀起拋售潮，分析師預測，富馬隆綜指下週一（14日）開盤恐猛挫接近100點！

在全民政治海嘯的推波助瀾下，由敦馬哈迪率領的希望聯盟終在全國大選中拿下122國席勝選，結束國陣長達逾60年的政權。

但英特太平洋證券研究分析主管馮廷秀回應《中國報》提問時指出，改朝換代料料使馬股下週挫4%至5%；若以富馬隆綜指在本週二（8日）大選前一天閉市的1846.51點計算，4%至5%跌幅為介于74點至92點。

“外資原先普遍預期國陣會勝選，所以改朝換代將使外資感不安，通常一般都會選擇先售股離場觀察，免遭殃及池魚。”

不過，他也強調外資拋售馬股僅為短期現象，只要新政府宣布任何有利于增加國家未來收入的具體措施，股市動盪便將逐漸穩定。

“未來，投資者還是更關注國家經濟基本面。”

馬證交所發布文告指出，將配合政府首席秘書丹斯里阿里韓沙宣布，休市兩日。馬證交所與旗下子公司將于下週一恢复交易。

Smooth transition is d most important

No need to worry. Mrcb is a GLC, it is linked to government, not belong to particular politics party. Whoever becomes government, effect to mrcb should not b big.. Major shareholders are kwsp n other institutional funds, not politics parties. Opposition may control states of southern. HSR is so important for development from central to southern. Pls dont think whether HSR wil b cancelled. Awareded b PDP for HSR was through tender process among few tenderers. Impossible to withdraw d award. Be logical pls.

Although it is estimation but what highlighted by CCCC is possible also. If CCCC is awarded for d MRT 3, CCCC may needs a local construction company be a partner. Of course, this is d guess only.

In May, there have no c-warrants to b expired. Should have no huge blockages anymore.

It is good. Mrcb becomes PDP for PWTC redevelopment project.

Huge blocks at 1.05. Seems this month has no big surprise

Bollinger line is starting to b widening. Nothing to get worry

I hold WB only. When mother was 1.30 last time, WB went to 0.44. I am still waiting. This round seems WB is slower.

I bet with my friend that If WB can't close at 0.36 in this week, I will spend her sushi meal.

I just topped up WB at 0.335 & 0.34 this morning before on board to overseas. I also don't know what is the qty of WB I have now. Always keep topping up. ha....

broke resistance of 0.98

Through this blog, actually i can see a person to have many faces. When he/she didnt buy this counter earlier, then he/she said other buyers were stupid, idiot....a lot of dirty words... After he started to buy it recently, then he changes 365 degree. Human face is so reality. Many who scolded calvintaneng earlier n if u bought this counter recently, i think u owe him a word of "sorry".

Calvintanen, u have a very good personality. After mrcb is awarded HSR project n price rebound, you never talked a single negative words to those who scolded u up n down earlier. U r not earning in share only but u r earning in good personality too.

UOB Kay Hian projects total cost of KL-S’pore link at RM60bil

PETALING JAYA: The Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High Speed Rail’s (HSR) project delivery partners could potentially earn a total net profit of over RM2bil, according to UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research.

In its published note on the construction sector, the research house said that the entire project would yield a net profit of RM2.1bil to RM2.4bil at an estimated 5% margin.

The project delivery partner fees for the HSR project are capped at 6% of construction cost, similar to the development of Mass Rapid Transit Line 1 and 2 as well as the Light Rail Transit 3.

“Assuming a 6.5-year construction period, net profit from the project management fees for the entire project would be about RM300mil yearly on a straight line recognition basis,” it said.

UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research projects the total cost of HSR to hover around RM60bil, comprising civil infrastructure works of RM35bil and the rest from train sets, operating systems and other associated costs.

The official project cost has yet to be formally announced, given the sheer size and long timeframe.

The HSR construction is expected to take about five to six years, with the financing to come from the governments of Malaysia and Singapore.

Two consortia will be involved in the civil works of HSR, namely the Gamuda-Malaysian Resources Corporation consortium (Gamuda-MRCB) and the Syarikat Pembenaan Yeoh Tiong Lay Sdn Bhd-TH Properties Sdn Bhd consortium (YTL-THP).

Both Gamuda-MRCB and YTL-THP will be in charge of the northern and southern portion of the HSR alignment respectively.

The terms of the project delivery partners’ package agreement shall be agreed upon within three weeks.

According to UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research, the HSR project delivery partners’ contract offers huge earnings impact for MRCB and a moderate impact for Gamuda.

“The HSR project delivery partners’ contract could contribute about 8% of Gamuda’s earnings per share (EPS) for the financial year of 2020 and 37% of MRCB’s 2020 EPS. We would review our forecasts once details of the HSR contract are revealed.

“Our current forecasts assume RM5bil annual contract wins for Gamuda, and only RM1.5bil contract wins for MRCB,” it said.

The research house has maintained its “overweight” view on the domestic construction sector, with Gamuda being its top sector pick.

“We prefer beneficiaries of infrastructure spending and companies with good track record in securing jobs and delivering earnings growth,” said UOB Kay Hian Malaysia Research.

China & US start trade war.

Today is ex-date for dividend

Two more c-warrants to b expired in end March. Wait...

（吉隆坡26日訊）馬資源（MRCB，1651，主板產業股）宣布，Bukit Jalil Sentral產業私人有限公司（BJSP）正式委任馬資源的獨資子公司--MRCB置地作為武吉加里爾發展計劃的工程管理承包商，合約總值高達110億零733萬令吉。

該項計劃發展期限長達20年。而MRCB置地作為工程的管理承包商，必須負責該計劃的銷售和營銷顧問、為項目取得授權和批准、進行可行性研究和EPCC工程。而BJSP將支付110億零733萬令吉予MRCB置地，其中8億9153萬令吉作為管理費用、101億1580萬令吉作為EPCC、專業費用、銷售營銷顧問費用和行政費用。

整個項目的總發展成本，包括土地、法定批准費用、融資成本，將達到148億2689萬令吉。

根據馬資源管理層的估算，整個計劃未來20年的發展總值將達到206億7000萬令吉，並在期間將為公司捎來遠遠不絕的收入。

該公司是在去年宣布與僱員公積金局（EPF）聯手發展位於武吉加里爾的3片總面積為76.14英畝的地皮，當時預計的發展總值僅為119億9000萬令吉，發展期限為14年。

馬資源持股85%的子公司RukunJuang私人有限公司（RJSB）與EPF子公司TanjungWibawa私人有限公司（TWSB）在去年成立聯營公司BukitJalilSentral產業私人有限公司。

馬資源與EPF將分別持有聯營公司的20%和80%股權。

I have time, can slow slow wait.....