Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD retraces biggest losses in seven years above $1,900
August 11, 2020 10:53 GMT | By Anil Panchal
Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD retraces biggest losses in seven years above $1,900
Gold prices carry bounce off $1,901.52, the lowest in two weeks.
US dollar gains, mixed sentiment triggered the bullion’s biggest daily slump since April 2013.

Run for your life. The ship sank.

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD retraces biggest losses in seven years above $1,900
Gold picks up the bids near $1,926.70 during the pre-Tokyo Asian session on Wednesday. The bullion dropped by around $120 the previous day, marking the biggest drop since late-April 2013, amid market’s rush to the US dollar. Though, the recent risk reset seems to have favored the pullback moves.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

What becomes of the Hong Kong dollar? Singapore may hold the secret

SCENARIO ONE: Nothing changes. The Hong Kong dollar peg is attacked and the HKMA defends it at all costs and will continue to do so until all the US$449 billion reserves are used up and the Hong Kong dollar craters. This is an extreme financial cold-war scenario, and the outcome depends on the White House not using its proverbial financial launch codes. But the events of the past week have revealed the vulnerability of the Hong Kong dollar peg, and the HKMA as its manager.

SCENARIO TWO: Hong Kong switches to the RMB. This could be done overnight through a new Hong Kong dollar pegged to the renminbi. The Hong Kong dollar would need to be exchangeable within Hong Kong and holders would be able to sell them back to banks in exchange for crisp People’s Bank of China renminbi notes. As for the US$449 billion reserves, that could fund the Lantau reclamation project six times over.

SCENARIO THREE: The Hong Kong dollar peg is modified along the lines of the Singapore dollar’s secret basket. The basket could be comprised of Asian currencies and perhaps some gold. Reliance on the US dollar is diminished and the Hong Kong dollar remains convertible. The HKMA potentially wins from this, and although baskets can be reverse engineered, it would be more difficult to attack. If the basket had a healthy amount of yen in it, there would be an element of self-hedging against the dollar as the US dollar tends to trade in a somewhat steady relationship with the yen at US$1=¥105-115.

What becomes of the Hong Kong dollar? Singapore may hold the secret

SCENARIO ONE: Nothing changes. The Hong Kong dollar peg is attacked and the HKMA defends it at all costs and will continue to do so until all the US$449 billion reserves are used up and the Hong Kong dollar craters. This is an extreme financial cold-war scenario, and the outcome depends on the White House not using its proverbial financial launch codes. But the events of the past week have revealed the vulnerability of the Hong Kong dollar peg, and the HKMA as its manager.

SCENARIO TWO: Hong Kong switches to the RMB. This could be done overnight through a new Hong Kong dollar pegged to the renminbi. The Hong Kong dollar would need to be exchangeable within Hong Kong and holders would be able to sell them back to banks in exchange for crisp People’s Bank of China renminbi notes. As for the US$449 billion reserves, that could fund the Lantau reclamation project six times over.

SCENARIO THREE: The Hong Kong dollar peg is modified along the lines of the Singapore dollar’s secret basket. The basket could be comprised of Asian currencies and perhaps some gold. Reliance on the US dollar is diminished and the Hong Kong dollar remains convertible. The HKMA potentially wins from this, and although baskets can be reverse engineered, it would be more difficult to attack. If the basket had a healthy amount of yen in it, there would be an element of self-hedging against the dollar as the US dollar tends to trade in a somewhat steady relationship with the yen at US$1=¥105-115.

Should customers cash out their investments in the precious metal right now or wait longer for its value to rise further? Zawya spoke to a few analysts for insights.

Many are betting on the precious metal to continue rising, but the soaring prices have also enticed some investors to secure more immediate profits. In the UAE, for example, some customers have returned to the souks to sell their jewellery, bars and coins to take advantage of the high prices and get some much-needed cash.

“With oil prices down and [the] tourism sector severely impacted, many individuals in the UAE have lost their jobs or their business have been hugely impacted,” said Arun Leslie John, Chief Market Analyst at Century Financial. “These individuals in need of cash are now opting to sell some gold and [make] some gains after witnessing the massive rally in the metal over the past few days.”

Should customers cash out their investments in the precious metal right now or wait longer for its value to rise further? Zawya spoke to a few analysts for insights.

Many are betting on the precious metal to continue rising, but the soaring prices have also enticed some investors to secure more immediate profits. In the UAE, for example, some customers have returned to the souks to sell their jewellery, bars and coins to take advantage of the high prices and get some much-needed cash.

“With oil prices down and [the] tourism sector severely impacted, many individuals in the UAE have lost their jobs or their business have been hugely impacted,” said Arun Leslie John, Chief Market Analyst at Century Financial. “These individuals in need of cash are now opting to sell some gold and [make] some gains after witnessing the massive rally in the metal over the past few days.”

Should customers cash out their investments in the precious metal right now or wait longer for its value to rise further? Zawya spoke to a few analysts for insights.

Many are betting on the precious metal to continue rising, but the soaring prices have also enticed some investors to secure more immediate profits. In the UAE, for example, some customers have returned to the souks to sell their jewellery, bars and coins to take advantage of the high prices and get some much-needed cash.

“With oil prices down and [the] tourism sector severely impacted, many individuals in the UAE have lost their jobs or their business have been hugely impacted,” said Arun Leslie John, Chief Market Analyst at Century Financial. “These individuals in need of cash are now opting to sell some gold and [make] some gains after witnessing the massive rally in the metal over the past few days.”

China-Australia relations hit crisis levels – PM admits WAR with Beijing possible

CHINA'S relations with Australia rest on a knife-edge after Prime Minister declared Scott Morrison declared war between the two was now possible.

US trying for 'clean network' by banning 'untrusted Chinese apps' like WeChat, TikTok
By William Gallagher

Describing them as "untrusted Chinese apps," the US government says it wants WeChat, TikTok, and other unspecified services to be banned from all of the app stores in the US.

WeChat may be banned in the US

WeChat is available everywhere, but totally dominates in China
As Microsoft is in talks to buy TikTok. and Apple is not, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has unveiled plans to ban similar services that, he says, pose "significant threats to the personal data of US citizens."

US trying for 'clean network' by banning 'untrusted Chinese apps' like WeChat, TikTok
By William Gallagher

Describing them as "untrusted Chinese apps," the US government says it wants WeChat, TikTok, and other unspecified services to be banned from all of the app stores in the US.

WeChat may be banned in the US

WeChat is available everywhere, but totally dominates in China
As Microsoft is in talks to buy TikTok. and Apple is not, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has unveiled plans to ban similar services that, he says, pose "significant threats to the personal data of US citizens."

Donald Trump says the government should get a cut from the sale of TikTok's US unit if an American firm buys it.

The US president said he made a demand for a "substantial portion" of the purchase price in a phone call at the weekend with Microsoft's boss.

He also warned he will ban the app, which is owned by China's ByteDance, on 15 September if there is no deal.

ByteDance is under pressure to sell its US business after Mr Trump threatened a crackdown on Chinese tech companies.

Donald Trump says the government should get a cut from the sale of TikTok's US unit if an American firm buys it.

The US president said he made a demand for a "substantial portion" of the purchase price in a phone call at the weekend with Microsoft's boss.

He also warned he will ban the app, which is owned by China's ByteDance, on 15 September if there is no deal.

ByteDance is under pressure to sell its US business after Mr Trump threatened a crackdown on Chinese tech companies.

China omits US dollar from forex trading fee waivers in bid to bolster yuan

The euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Hong Kong dollar and Australian dollar are also not exempt from trading fees

China is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies, including the Singapore dollar, Russia rouble and Korean won, for three years in its onshore foreign exchange market in a clear move to skirt the US dollar.

The other nine currencies are the Malaysian ringgit, New Zealand dollar, South African rand, Saudi riyal, United Arab Emirates dirham, Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, Turkish lira and the Thai baht. The SAFE said the reason for waiving those trading fees was to “actively cooperate with the national belt and road development strategy, implement financial support for the development of the real economy, reduce corporate exchange costs, and promote the development of the direct exchange market for yuan and foreign exchange between banks”.

China omits US dollar from forex trading fee waivers in bid to bolster yuan

The euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Hong Kong dollar and Australian dollar are also not exempt from trading fees

China is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies, including the Singapore dollar, Russia rouble and Korean won, for three years in its onshore foreign exchange market in a clear move to skirt the US dollar.

The other nine currencies are the Malaysian ringgit, New Zealand dollar, South African rand, Saudi riyal, United Arab Emirates dirham, Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, Turkish lira and the Thai baht. The SAFE said the reason for waiving those trading fees was to “actively cooperate with the national belt and road development strategy, implement financial support for the development of the real economy, reduce corporate exchange costs, and promote the development of the direct exchange market for yuan and foreign exchange between banks”.

China omits US dollar from forex trading fee waivers in bid to bolster yuan

The euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Hong Kong dollar and Australian dollar are also not exempt from trading fees

China is waiving transaction fees between the yuan and 12 currencies, including the Singapore dollar, Russia rouble and Korean won, for three years in its onshore foreign exchange market in a clear move to skirt the US dollar.

The other nine currencies are the Malaysian ringgit, New Zealand dollar, South African rand, Saudi riyal, United Arab Emirates dirham, Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, Turkish lira and the Thai baht. The SAFE said the reason for waiving those trading fees was to “actively cooperate with the national belt and road development strategy, implement financial support for the development of the real economy, reduce corporate exchange costs, and promote the development of the direct exchange market for yuan and foreign exchange between banks”.

BEIJING, Aug. 3 (Xinhua) -- The China Rare Earth Price Index went up 0.12 percent from the previous working day to 1,234.97 points Monday.

Compiled by the China Economic Information Service and Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange, the index reflects the overall price trend in the rare earth market.

The index is a part of China's rare earth serial indexes, which also include a prosperity index and a development index. Enditem

BEIJING, Aug. 3 (Xinhua) -- The China Rare Earth Price Index went up 0.12 percent from the previous working day to 1,234.97 points Monday.

Compiled by the China Economic Information Service and Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange, the index reflects the overall price trend in the rare earth market.

The index is a part of China's rare earth serial indexes, which also include a prosperity index and a development index. Enditem

BEIJING, Aug. 3 (Xinhua) -- The China Rare Earth Price Index went up 0.12 percent from the previous working day to 1,234.97 points Monday.

Compiled by the China Economic Information Service and Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange, the index reflects the overall price trend in the rare earth market.

The index is a part of China's rare earth serial indexes, which also include a prosperity index and a development index. Enditem

China will impose sanctions on US-based arms producer Lockheed Martin, the main contractor of the recertification of its Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) air defense missiles of the island of Taiwan.

The sanctions will likely feature the cut-off of material supply including rare earths, which are crucial to advanced weapons production, and business restrictions on Lockheed Martin's suppliers that have business in the Chinese mainland, Chinese aviation industry experts said on Tuesday.

The US on Thursday announced the approval of an arms deal to Taiwan involving the recertification of PAC-3 air defense missiles at an estimated cost of $620 million.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference on Tuesday that China had decided to take necessary measures to impose sanctions on the US company.

Zhao did not elaborate on the details of the sanctions.

China will impose sanctions on US-based arms producer Lockheed Martin, the main contractor of the recertification of its Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) air defense missiles of the island of Taiwan.

The sanctions will likely feature the cut-off of material supply including rare earths, which are crucial to advanced weapons production, and business restrictions on Lockheed Martin's suppliers that have business in the Chinese mainland, Chinese aviation industry experts said on Tuesday.

The US on Thursday announced the approval of an arms deal to Taiwan involving the recertification of PAC-3 air defense missiles at an estimated cost of $620 million.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference on Tuesday that China had decided to take necessary measures to impose sanctions on the US company.

Zhao did not elaborate on the details of the sanctions.

China will impose sanctions on US-based arms producer Lockheed Martin, the main contractor of the recertification of its Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) air defense missiles of the island of Taiwan.

The sanctions will likely feature the cut-off of material supply including rare earths, which are crucial to advanced weapons production, and business restrictions on Lockheed Martin's suppliers that have business in the Chinese mainland, Chinese aviation industry experts said on Tuesday.

The US on Thursday announced the approval of an arms deal to Taiwan involving the recertification of PAC-3 air defense missiles at an estimated cost of $620 million.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference on Tuesday that China had decided to take necessary measures to impose sanctions on the US company.

Zhao did not elaborate on the details of the sanctions.

The United States was almost totally dependent on imports of rare earth compounds and metals last year, just as it was the year before and the year before that. China remained the largest supplier to the tune of around 80% of all imports, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

That reliance on China for minerals with critical uses across a wide spectrum of civilian and military applications is becoming ever more problematic as Sino-US relations deteriorate.

July was a very difficult month for the US dollar. The greenback sold off sharply against all of the major currencies hitting multi-month / multi-year lows in the process. In one month, it lost 6% of its value against sterling, 5% versus the euro and more than 4% against the Swiss Franc and Australian dollars. From rising coronavirus cases, falling yields, expiring stimulus benefits, domestic turmoil, an unpredictable President and political tensions with many countries around the world, investors had plenty of reasons to abandon the greenback. The nail in the coffin on Thursday was President Trump’s suggestion to delay the 2020 election which is against the Constitution. Leading Republicans were quick to reject the idea but investors fear that the sitting President will try to delegitimize the election in other ways. This grim political and economic outlook for the dollar makes it difficult to attract buyers.

July was a very difficult month for the US dollar. The greenback sold off sharply against all of the major currencies hitting multi-month / multi-year lows in the process. In one month, it lost 6% of its value against sterling, 5% versus the euro and more than 4% against the Swiss Franc and Australian dollars. From rising coronavirus cases, falling yields, expiring stimulus benefits, domestic turmoil, an unpredictable President and political tensions with many countries around the world, investors had plenty of reasons to abandon the greenback. The nail in the coffin on Thursday was President Trump’s suggestion to delay the 2020 election which is against the Constitution. Leading Republicans were quick to reject the idea but investors fear that the sitting President will try to delegitimize the election in other ways. This grim political and economic outlook for the dollar makes it difficult to attract buyers.

July was a very difficult month for the US dollar. The greenback sold off sharply against all of the major currencies hitting multi-month / multi-year lows in the process. In one month, it lost 6% of its value against sterling, 5% versus the euro and more than 4% against the Swiss Franc and Australian dollars. From rising coronavirus cases, falling yields, expiring stimulus benefits, domestic turmoil, an unpredictable President and political tensions with many countries around the world, investors had plenty of reasons to abandon the greenback. The nail in the coffin on Thursday was President Trump’s suggestion to delay the 2020 election which is against the Constitution. Leading Republicans were quick to reject the idea but investors fear that the sitting President will try to delegitimize the election in other ways. This grim political and economic outlook for the dollar makes it difficult to attract buyers.

5. The BRICS Plan To Use Own Currencies When Trading With Each Other
The BRICS (these countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) continue to flex their muscles. An agreement will promote the use of their own national currencies when trading with each other rather than the U.S. dollar. The following is from a news source in India:

"The five major emerging economies of BRICS are set to inject greater economic momentum into their grouping by signing two pacts for promoting intra-BRICS trade...The two agreements will enable credit facility in local currency for businesses of BRICS countries... this is expected to scale up intra-BRICS trade that has been growing at the rate of 28% over the last few years but, at $230 billion, remains much below the potential of the five economic powerhouses."

4. The United Nations and IMF are Pushing for a New World Reserve Currency
The UN has been issuing reports that openly call for an alternative to the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world. One UN report in particular envisions "a new global reserve system...that no longer relies on the United States dollar as the single major reserve currency."

That may be bold enough, however, the IMF has taken it one step further. One IMF paper entitled "Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability" actually proposed a future global currency named the "Bancor" and stated that a future global central bank could be put in charge of issuing it.

3. Saudi Arabia Likely to Abandon Use of Petrodollar in Dealings With China
Who imports the most oil from Saudi Arabia? It is not the United States, it is China.

Saudi Arabia and China have teamed up to construct a massive new oil refinery in Saudi Arabia. So the question becomes, how long is Saudi Arabia going to stick with the Petrodollar if China is their most important customer?

This is also spelling danger for the Petrodollar, which has been a key player in the U.S. economy since the Nixon administration, when Henry Kissinger brokered the deal back in the 1970s. However, the expiration date on this deal may be fast approaching.

2. India To Use Gold To Buy Oil From Iran
Iran has been one of the most aggressive nations to move away from the U.S. dollar in international trade. For example, it has been reported that India will begin to use gold to buy oil from Iran.

Things don't just end there. Reports are also saying that China is more than happy to deal with Iran in their own currency, pushing the wedge that much deeper between Iran and the U.S. after the U.S. exited the 2008 nuclear agreement and started applying sanctions on Iran.

So why is the USD losing its title as the Reserve currency?

Here are my top 5 reasons:


1. Use Of Chinese Currency Growing In Africa
Who do you think Africa's biggest trading partner is? Spoiler alert, it isn't the United States.

In 2009, China became Africa's biggest trading partner, and the country is now aggressively seeking to expand the use of the Chinese currency on the African continent.

A report from Africa's largest bank, Standard Bank, recently stated:

"We expect at least $100 billion (about R768 billion) in Sino-African trade...to be settled in the renminbi by 2021."

China seems absolutely determined to change the way that international trade is conducted. At this point, approximately 70,000 Chinese companies are using the Chinese currency in cross-border transactions.

A number of countries in Africa, among them the Bank of Ghana, are using the RMB as part of their settlement and reserve currency. Earlier this year, the Nigerian central bank reportedly announced that it planned to shift more of its foreign reserves into yuan from dollars as the RMB gains greater traction in global trade.

Agreed. Now is best sell. When down low low, then accumulate again.

Sell off gold as price is very high, for cash as backup for after moratorium end period.

People queue in front of Hua Seng Heng gold shop in Yaowarat on Wednesday as gold prices rose.

BANGKOK, July 24 (The Nation/ANN): Like the situation in Laos, Thai gold shops are seeing a surge in customers after prices for the precious metal hit new highs of over Bt28,000 per baht weight for gold bar and over Bt28,500 per baht weight for gold ornament.

The record prices have sent people flocking to gold shops in Bangkok’s Yaowarat area to sell their jewellery and ornaments, the Gold Traders Association reports.

BANGKOK, July 24 (The Nation/ANN): Like the situation in Laos, Thai gold shops are seeing a surge in customers after prices for the precious metal hit new highs of over Bt28,000 per baht weight for gold bar and over Bt28,500 per baht weight for gold ornament.

The record prices have sent people flocking to gold shops in Bangkok’s Yaowarat area to sell their jewellery and ornaments, the Gold Traders Association reports.

BANGKOK, July 24 (The Nation/ANN): Like the situation in Laos, Thai gold shops are seeing a surge in customers after prices for the precious metal hit new highs of over Bt28,000 per baht weight for gold bar and over Bt28,500 per baht weight for gold ornament.

The record prices have sent people flocking to gold shops in Bangkok’s Yaowarat area to sell their jewellery and ornaments, the Gold Traders Association reports.

Physical gold demand drops 11% in Q2 even with record ETF buying
Neils Christensen Neils Christensen
Thursday July 30, 2020 24:02

Physical gold demand drops 11% in Q2 even with record ETF buying
Neils Christensen Neils Christensen
Thursday July 30, 2020 24:02

Physical gold demand drops 11% in Q2 even with record ETF buying
Neils Christensen Neils Christensen
Thursday July 30, 2020 24:02

U.S. dollar is on edge of losing its position of world's reserve currency as inflation concern in the U.S. is growing. /Reuters

U.S. dollar is on edge of losing its position of world's reserve currency as inflation concern in the U.S. is growing. /Reuters

U.S. dollar is on edge of losing its position of world's reserve currency as inflation concern in the U.S. is growing. /Reuters

Harrison Schwartz
Forex
Market outlook
The End To U.S. Dollar Hegemony Has Arrived
Jul. 28, 2020 11:46 AMFXA, FXB, FXC
Summary
With gold at an all-time high, the U.S. dollar appears to be entering a clear inflationary bear market.
While all major currencies have seen money supply expansion, the U.S. M1 has increased at a significantly greater pace than peers.
U.S. real yields are at an all-time low and are trending lower, while Europe and Japan's are trending higher.
Renewed U.S.-China tensions may exacerbate the dollar's declines as Russia and China create an alternative payment system.
This situation is likely bullish for foreign equity ETFs, U.S. commodity producers, and foreign currency funds.

If disease not fade away, airlines business will be highly affected. Maybe will hover around 0.50 to 0.60 soon.

Harrison Schwartz
Forex
Market outlook
The End To U.S. Dollar Hegemony Has Arrived
Jul. 28, 2020 11:46 AMFXA, FXB, FXC
Summary
With gold at an all-time high, the U.S. dollar appears to be entering a clear inflationary bear market.
While all major currencies have seen money supply expansion, the U.S. M1 has increased at a significantly greater pace than peers.
U.S. real yields are at an all-time low and are trending lower, while Europe and Japan's are trending higher.
Renewed U.S.-China tensions may exacerbate the dollar's declines as Russia and China create an alternative payment system.
This situation is likely bullish for foreign equity ETFs, U.S. commodity producers, and foreign currency funds.

Who can replace each other currency position as global currency.

Us dollar vs Chinese yuan strength.