1.15 support broken, next support SMA 200 1.05

Public Bank's target price met this morning

now is 0.145

Don't catch a falling knife !!

Today SMA 200 will crossover > SMA 90, a significant drop is expected by today.

when it drop to around 0.1 or below, shall be good time to slowly accumulate.
based on current trend, it should not take long to reach 0.1.

current price of 0.185/0.195 is still too high to buy and with no sign that it will rebound from current level.
there maybe a temporary manipulation of price up to trap traders to chase high, but it will still fall back and it will trend lower low overtime. no point to collect at current level by knowing a significant drop will follow.

Do not buy during a downtrend, it will only trend lower low, the chart is a waterfall.
No point to keep buying and wait to average down until out of bullets and watching the price continue to drop or worst case cut-loss if unable to hold.
Patiently wait for the downtrend ended, it will not be an immediate "V" turn from bottom. It will stay at bottom for awhile before it rebound.
It will never be too late to buy at bottom, no rush to buy during downtrend.

Let IDSS buy & sell by themselves to push the price to bottom, and we do bottom fishing.

@ Mabel, very nice musical video, that's classic !

Current technical observation from Friday closing :

SMA 10 = 1.273
SMA 50 = 1.356
SMA 90 = 1.251

1) Technically when SMA 50 crossover > SMA 10, it is already a confirmed downtrend since Feb 28th.
The gap had been widen (from Feb 28th to Mar 6th) to 0.083 with no sign of reversal and both moving average trending down (SMA 10 much faster then SMA 50).

2) The next critical point will be the crossover of SMA 90 with SMA 10.
The current gap is only 0.022. Once SMA 90 also > SMA 10, expected a further drop in price.
Note that SMA 90 now is slowly trending up while SMA 10 is rapidly trend down, the crossover may happen within short term.

3) Once SMA 90 also start to trend down after crossover with SMA 10, then a more significant waterfall dropping may happen until a trend reversal (SMA 10 > SMA 50, opposite of crossover for above, and that will be the right time for entry).

@ Mabel, I bought Revenue last month at 1.24 & 1.31 (when it dropped to 1.15 lowest & rebound) and decided to sell all 2 times at 1.4 & 1.41 when observed several bearish signals, inclusive a double tops, which I also shared last month.

I am currently holding zero Revenue stocks, and waiting for a good entry point only with no rush. The reason I share the TA is because I am seeing a lot of traders may not understand the downtrend situation we are in and continue buy high and stuck at holding high, while I am only waiting for a trend reversal to buy low.

I may not share too frequent from now on for Revenue until there is a buy signal appear.

conservative estimation for year 2020, within Asia Pacific's airlines will make lose for USD 57.3 billions

with current trend, 0.07 is an achievable target, another 0.12 to go.
one week only drop 0.015, in 2 months time will reach the target.

hope another fantastic rebound from 0.07 to 0.475 to make KNM a great story again in year 2020.

Public Bank's target price of 1.13 seems like is an achievable target by current trend.

Current price 1.22 vs 1.13 only 7%+ to go.
Lowest price in past 1 week 1.18 vs 1.13 only 4%+ to go.

By next week SMA 200 will crossover > SMA 90 (now the gap is only 0.003). Once crossover, a great fall will follow.

Note : The last time SMA 90 crossover > SMA 200 was May 31st, the price surge from 0.19 to 0.475 by Nov 8th, only took 5 mths+.

Just imagine, now is totally a reverse way.
06/03/2020 5:15 PM

An evening star formed in 3 days (Wed - green, Thur - "+", Fri - red) successfully trapped in retailers who chasing high on Wed, Thur and being forced sell today.

The last evening star appeared by Feb 7th - 11th, price drop from 1.31 to 0.98 lowest by Mar 2nd.
When evening star appeared, a waterfall dropping will follow.

There is no logic in current condition AA will fly, just a common sense.

close to 70% of the trade volume today is IDSS buy & sell.
they successfully push down the price to 0.185 (lowest) and closed at 0.19 (those still hold at 0.4x, 0.3x, 0.2x should be panic by now).

with more & more retailers day to day being trapped in to chase high (when the price seems like rebound in early morning) & being forced sell (when the price drop to lower low at closing), the price drop even faster back to 0.07 target, it means 100% of those who hold stocks will be either cut-loss or on paper lose, easily more than -100%, worst case -few hundreds %.

That is reason I wont enter as long IDSS is actively short selling this counter. No point to hold stocks while watching price drop day to day.

IDSS short sell RM 2.88 mil at average price 0.195 today.
Now they need to buy back 0.185/0.19 slowly to avoid push up the price more then 0.195.

Lets patiently wait for the downtrend ended => reverse to uptrend then only enter.
No point to buy during a downtrend, it will never be too late to buy at the point of reversal of trend, worst case is miss the opportunity only, it is much better then holding at a lose and watching from 0.4x to 0.3x to 0.2x to 0.1x with hope of break-even in future.

I sold all at 0.425 last year and felt terribly bad at the time when the price flew all the way up to 0.475 and thought it will reach 0.5x.
Now the fund that I sold at 0.425, I can buy back more then double of units at current price and I am great for my decision to sell at 0.425 (that I bought at 0.19 last year).

majority of retailers bought since Feb 20th to now shall be either cut-loss already or holding at paper lose, easily -10% to -20% in 2 weeks time-frame.

the current trend seems very different from past 4 months, it is gradually trending down to 1.19 again instead of rebounding from 1.19.

also, it is first time since Oct'19, it entered into a bearish mode technically by this week for SMA 50 > SMA 10, and traded 6 consecutive days below SMA 90 which is abnormal.

Directors shall buy Big at this level to give faith for the current share price and to punish IDSS.
Small retailers like us need such confidence to follow.

there is plenty of internet FOC TA basic education, just google yourself.
however, finally the biggest learning will be self-discipline and no-greedy which can only do self-training.

it is learning thru sharing, not really coaching
if Revenue hv no future, I wont be here.

Technically 3 layers of next supports if 0.19 also broken :

0.18 = Jun'19 (lowest)
0.165 = May'19 (lowest)
0.155 = Apr'19 (lowest)

@ sardin81, for the past one week inclusive today, most of the Q volume at buy & sell are IDSS, not retailers. As long they make money daily, they wont stop until hands burnt.
that is the reason I hesitate to enter although the price getting attractive.

with 1.19 lowest today, it means all traders bought and hold from Feb 18th to now 100% being trapped in.

again, any technical rebound during downtrend is for profit taking purpose, not for chasing high.

For the first time since Oct 8th'19, the moving average 50 days > 10 days, technically it entered into bearish mode if unable to rebound back to above SMA 50 in short term.

It also traded for #6 days below SMA 90 from Feb 28th to now, first time since Oct 8th'19.

Hope the monthly rebound by 10th ~20th wont miss this month.

IDSS just short selling RM 689k at 0.2 this morning, and they prepare to buy back < 0.2 in the afternoon.

no, just learning and sharing

@ KLSTK1234, the chart looks like it gradually trend down again and traded below SMA 90 (with SMA 50 became resistance) which is different pattern to past 4 months.

Past 4 months (Nov - Feb), once the price touch SMA 50 by every month end, immediate the next day it rebound back to above SMA 50 and reach the peak by 10th - 20th each month (far beyond SMA 50).

Hope this month can do the same rebound back to 1.5x by Mar 10th ~ 20th as what it did for past 4 months. Monthly 30% profit thru & forth (1.1x <=> 1.5x) is very attractive.

the chart looks more like forming another evening star to trap in retailers to buy high (it looked similar to Feb 7th ~11th candlesticks pattern : first day up, second day a "+ "doji, if tomorrow down will be a forming an evening star to trap those who chase high today)

in current condition it is abnormal for a rebound.

Seems like Jaks' current trend is very different to past few months (Oct'19 ~Feb'20)

1) Started to trade below SMA 90 by Feb 28th (never happened after Oct 8'19).
2) Traded below SMA 90 for 5 days (Feb 28th until Mar 5th, never happened after Oct 8'19).
3) No immediate rebound back to above SMA 50 (1.35), thus SMA 50 instead of a usual support, currently it become a resistance.

so the scenario # 2 happened, the downtrend continue.

During downtrend :

1) any technical rebound sell timely to take profits, as it will drop back fast
2) do not chase high as most rally only temporary, will be trapped
3) patiently wait for trend reversal only buy, else will stuck at holding stock (and miss other opportunities) while stock price will gradually trend down lower low until a trend reversal.

any technical rebound take profit first as long term it is a downtrend.

The daily close is trending lower low each day :

Feb 26th = 1.34
Feb 27th = 1.3
Feb 28th = 1.25
Mar 2nd = 1.24
Mar 3rd = 1.23
Mar 4th = 1.22

The current support SMA 90 = 1.247 broken 4 times :

Feb 28th = 1.19 lowest
Mar 2nd = 1.2 lowest
Mar 3rd = 1.22 lowest
Mar 4th = 1.2 lowest

As long as 1.15 next support not broken, there may have chance for technical rebound, current resistant 1.35/1.36 = SMA 30 ~SMA 50.

However, if 1.15 support also broken, next support will be SMA 200 = 1.05.

Important Note : The MMA chart is very clear that Revenue had entered into a long term downtrend from 1.45.

a) Yesterday was a long red candlestick opened 1.27, closed 1.23.
b) Today is a doji "+" open = close 1.22. It is a sign of indecisive whether to go down further or technical rebound. 50% up / 50%down.

Scenario # 1 : Tomorrow it may technical rebound to > 1.28 at closing, if yes, then it is a morning star (first day a red long candlestick, second day a "+" doji, third day a green long candlestick), a reversal of short term rebound will be possible.

Scenario # 2 : Tomorrow it continue break lower low at closing < 1.22, then a downtrend will be continue.

close to 60% of the trade volume today is IDSS buy and sell to themselves (left hand to right hand).
they short RM 2 mil+ at 0.2 today created fear for retailers to sell at 0.195 and buyback at 0.195/0.2.

I believe some traders saw the high buy volume at 0.2 and thought it is a rebound & chase high at 0.205 today. The buy volume is mainly IDSS buyback for what they short at 0.2, not a real demand.

@KimChooiNg, just patiently wait for reversal, no rush to buy now, it is downtrend.

low volume today is due to first 3 hours IDSS only short RM 213k at 0.2.
still, it occupied 50% of traded volume today, in the other words, without IDSS, retailers volume are very low.
maybe they take a rest today after all the way short from 0.475 to 0.2 since Nov.

@ Ong8888, it was from gunter yesterday, as subsequent there were some elaboration, I just want to clarify whether it was the latest info ? Gunter already responded it was outdated schedule.

can we conclude that the info provided by gunter is the latest and reflect the current situation ?

Planned Schedule for Unit 1

31 Jan 2020 - Firing Up (Done)

13 May 2020 - Turbine Speed Regulation

14 May 2020 - Connection to the national grid and initial power generation

12 July 2020 - Reliability Test 168 hours

11 August 2020 - Performance / Stress Test

28 August 2020 - Provisional Acceptance (Unit 1)

21 Feb 2021 - Provisional Acceptance (Unit 2)

Commercial Operation will only happen after Provisional Acceptance, NOT March 2020

Now you know why somebody say hold until Feb 2021 to win big.

Once current price 0.195/0.2 broken, technically next "support" should be 0.155/0.165 = last year April's price level.

@ VIN3133, I believe it is a typo, the analyst should be referring to current SMA 50 = 1.35 as the current short term resistant.

SMA 50 used to be a strong support level since Oct'19:

Jan 8th SMA 50 support broken & rebound next day for uptrend
Jan 31st SMA 50 support broken & rebound next day for uptrend

This time :
Feb 28th ~Mar 3rd = 3 days SMA 50 & SMA 90 broken together & closed below SMA 90, and thus SMA 50 instead of a strong support, it became a short term resistant.

The daily close is trending lower low each day :

Feb 26th = 1.34
Feb 27th = 1.3
Feb 28th = 1.25
Mar 2nd = 1.24
Mar 3rd = 1.23

The current support SMA 90 = 1.245 broken 3 times :

Feb 28th = 1.19 lowest
Mar 2nd = 1.2 lowest
Mar 3rd = 1.22 lowest

As long as 1.15 next support not broken, there may have chance for technical rebound, current resistant 1.35/1.36 = SMA 30 ~SMA 50.

However, if 1.15 support also broken, next support will be SMA 200 = 1.04/1.05.

Again, no rush to buy during downtrend unless a buy signal for reversal of trend.

@ Kevin Tam, the purpose of a trade is to make profit, it is not so relevant to whether it is overvalued or undervalued. As long IDSS short the counter and they can earn daily profit, they continue to short the counter everyday during downtrend, until the trend reverse.

however it doesnt work during uptrend as they will sell first at lower price and buy back at higher price which will burn their hand for the intraday price different.
so when IDSS is active with high volume trading each day, retailers need to be aware instead of rush to buy as the high price in early morning is a trap for IDSS to sell high and buy back low in the afternoon, while retailers buy high in the morning and forced sell low in the afternoon.

IDSS works well during downtrend.
Each morning sell first for stocks that they don't own => create fear for weak holders => and buy back at lower price in the afternoon / before closing, same day. Take profit for the price different without actually own the stock.
It had been continuously earn big since Nov to now while retailers stuck at holding high price waiting for margin call or forced selling.

Intraday Short Selling
What is Intraday Short Selling (IDSS)? IDSS allows investors to sell securities that they don't own, and then buy the same later to square off. All sell positions must be closed off with buy positions within the same trading day.

@ sardin81, I am waiting for the day. The day they burnt that will be my entry point.

guys, IDSS in first 1.5 hours short selling RM 1.42 mil at 0.205, they intend to buy back 0.2 today.
the high volume at 0.2 is IDSS buy back volume, not due to high demand.

The current downtrend is cause by :

1) Daily IDSS short selling with no strong support of price.
2) Most retailers that still holding stuck at high price or being forced sell.
3) No news at all since Nov.