DAYANG FY12 FINAL RESULTS REVIEW
HLIB
Profit Beast of the Sea
Results  In line: FY12 PATAMI increased 23% yoy to RM102m,
making up 104% and 107% of HLIB and consensus full-year
estimates, respectively.
Deviations  None.
Dividends  None.
Highlights  FY12 Revenue increased 5% yoy due to higher utilisation of
vessels and contribution from new workboat Dayang Topez.
The 23% increase in profit was due to higher contribution
from the fatter margin marine charter business.
 The increase in profit is in line with our view that offshore
service providers are enjoying a cyclical upswing as efforts to
increase offshore O&G production intensify, on top of
ongoing maintenance of aging O&G infrastructure. In
addition the robust results underline Dayang’s strong
negotiating power and economies of scale.
 We believe Dayang is likely to take a share of the estimated
RM10bn PAN Malaysian hook up and commission contracts
up for grabs including an estimated RM2.5bn Shell contract.
The incumbents are SapuraKencana and Petra Energy and
we believe the contract is likely to be spread around.
 In addition, with an additional 10 marginal fields in the
pipeline the likelihood of Dayang winning is extremely high.
We believe new contracts will add to existing revenue.
 Dayang’s growth is rooted in a solid high margin recurring
platform maintenance business which will benefit from an
increased number of platforms as the Government opens
new fields and oil majors continue with upgrading aging
facilities.
Risks  Political risk.
 Delays in contract disbursement.
 Execution risk.
Forecasts  Largely unchanged.
Rating BUY (
)
 Positives –
 solid track record and expertise in HUC.
 captive market for topside maintenance.
 Negatives –
 unsure of international growth prospects.
 difficulties in sourcing O&G engineering talent.
Valuation. We maintain a BUY call and an unchanged TP of RM3.36
based on an unchanged 14x (our small cap valuation multiple)
FY13 EPS of 24 sen/share.

Thanks imf_hau. I also keep track of MACD and px candle but RSI just to warn me of the overbought and oversold positions. u are right, there stocks which hit new highs on overbought readings, indicating a bullish trend.

Dayang earnings not too bad but earnings up on improved margin. Nevertheless revenue down q-o-q and y-o-y.

Thanks imf-hau. I hv still lots of Perdana and still holding, but Gocean gone to the drain. Can't say much about Gocean.

Maybulk has entered overbought territory with RSI of 78 while Perdana at 60. I believe Perdana has more upside before it reaches overbought levels.

Bluebird...could not agree more

...minitrader has gone to the loo...liao!

Fat Cat..u don't have to use vulgar words here...dont' be like Bingo..he likes calling people stupid as though he's the most brilliant around. As aforesaid, people this thread tends to be emotional and lose temper easily...which are bad characters of a human being...

Posted by tommylou > Feb 26, 2013 12:14 PM | Report Abuse

You must be the prosperity Cat!.....


yeah...u must be the most prosperous cat around FCTB...

Based on HLIB's estimates, using PER of 14x, Perdana is worth RM1.70, RM1.95 and RM2.57 based on FY13, FY14 and FY15 earnings respectively. If u hold for at least a year, the stock would climb, at least, to RM1.70.

wondering...why people in this "political forum" tends to be emotional and hot-tempered.....that's becoz when u discuss politics, u tend to hit each other...in the end there's no peace and harmony. All it creates is just antagonism...that's the main reason to avoid political discussions here...

Summary Earnings Table
FYE Dec (RMm) 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
Revenue 260 313 323 358
EBITDA 74 112 117 136
PATAMI -4 55 63 84
Core Earnings 24 55 63 84
EPS 6.9 12.1 13.9 18.4
P/E (x) 16.6 9.4 8.2 6.2
P/BV (x) 1.03 0.93 0.84 0.74
ROA (%) 3.8 6.9 7.3 8.8
ROE (%) 5.4 10.9 11.3 13.2
HLIB

PERDANA FY12 FINAL RESULTS REVIEW
Source: HLIB

Shine Like a Diamond
Results  In line: After adjusting for a RM28m write down on vessels,
core earnings swung from a loss of RM30m to a profit of
RM24m in FY12, making up 99% and 90% of HLIB and
consensus core earnings estimates, respectively.
Deviations  None.
Dividends  None.
Highlights  FY12 revenue increased 1.4% yoy due to higher utilisation
and charter rates which was partly offset by Lower capacity
from the sale of unprofitable vessels.
 Sequentially, core earnings decreased 22% due to lower
vessel utilisation. 4Q is typically week due to the start of the
monsoon. However, we were encouraged by 3Q12 core
earnings swinging to a profit of RM12m from a loss of
RM47m in 3Q11.
 The increased utilisation from 69% to 85% yoy, despite the
start of the monsoon season reaffirms our view that the OSV
market is in a cyclical upswing as capacity overhang
evaporates. Recall on 7 & 8, Jan Perdana secured RM0.5bn
in contracts which locked in 100% charter for 50% of the
AHTS fleet. Thus, we see little problem maintaining high
utilisation rates for 2013 and beyond. With the possibility of
most of the fleet locked into long term contracts, growth from
new vessel acquisition will become increasingly viable and
likely.
 As Perdana’s earnings clarity continues to shine like a
diamond, complete privatisation becomes increasing
attractive. Few OSV players, if any, offer the range of
vessels, management experience or economies of scale as
Perdana. The upswing in the OSV sector is exacerbated by
intensifying domestic offshore activities and independent of
the political landscape. An additional catalyst is an estimated
RM10bn of offshore hook up and commissioning and topside
maintenance work (includes an estimated RM2.5bn pan
Malaysia brown field maintenance and HUC contract with
shell) which Perdana is co-bidding for with Dayang.
Risks  Global recession hitting O&G price; Business and
restructuring execution failure; and Increase in OSV supply
Forecasts  Largely unchanged.
Rating BUY (
)
 Positives –
 Demand drivers improving.
 OSV supply relatively inelastic.
 Earnings inflection as restructuring nears completion.
 Negatives –
 Increased competition for growth markets.
 Complexities of restructuring.
Valuation  Maintain a BUY call and TP of RM1.70 based on an
unchanged 14x FY13 EPS of 12.1 sen/share.

the poor rakyat oledi poor mah..where got money to buy shares??? Probably the Pakatan Govt can distribute free shares to the poor...hehehe... in economics this is called wealth distribution...

osted by lmf_hau > Feb 25, 2013 12:45 PM | Report Abuse

Minitrader ,

Did u tested the water this morning ??
I just done.... something very cold, looking forward to find out.
__________________________________________________________________

Are u still holding u GOcean..??
It seem coming , only volume too low , I m waiting for buy sign confirmation.
...................................................................

still holding...caught and misled by wrong advice

poor YB Bingo...u bz talking politics....I'm bz making money mah..hahaha

can't be long in this kind of mkt

Imf_hau...i bought last 4 days...taking profit now...

U are a nincompoop la Yang Berhormat BINGO! People make money in mkt but u busy talking politics...hahaha ...u lah stupid dope..

hahaha YB ingo...u should contest for parliamentary seat...y offended by my presence here?..u can talk whatever u want but y upset by my presence here??? hahaha

bingo...u ought to set up a new political party...

oops...got into the wrong thread...DUNs and MPs in session...

Perdana makes my day...

:)

Perdana has been up since the 4 days now...:)

don't waste your time guys...not reading any...just letting u guys discuss among your good fellows...good luck n have fun arguing...

thanks shukriechek...let them be...

tune is astro's friend...that's why the stock underperforms

Desmond Liew, my preacher once told me...if the Devil/Satan speaks, we'd better keep quiet. So, let's them talk what they want. This thread has turned into a political forum and a battle ground to promote their ideologies. If I'm in front of them, I'd probably be shot dead.

They call talk and condemn everyone against them. The heaty argument can go on n on non-stop. It's a lose-lose situation. I'm not productive arguing with them, that's y I back off. I'm here to look for useful informations to make an investment decision, not arguing with nincompoops or amateur politicians.

seconded...

looks bearish...

high 1.39, low 1.33, close 1.36...premium 1 sen?????

waste of time subscribing in this IPO...sorry to those who did...coz...not worth looking into this group...ecm, airasisa, airasia x, tune ins...1 big family...

there u go...u guys are more interested in politics here than anything else...as aforesaid, this is not a political forum. We can argue until we die and endlessly...I'm not siding anyone here. When u talk politics, u tend to be emositonal and insensitive to others. I'm productive by arguing with u guys. I'm here to make some money from mkt, not argue endlessly about politics. Wasting my time here...

tune, ecm libra, air asia, airasia X...adik beradik mah...astro, maxis..no difference...OWN POCKET COMES FIRST...

bingo...why don't u compare Malaysia with Thailand, the Philippines, Mynmar, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Somalia, Bangladesh...and the list goes one...where are we? Why compare with Singapore?

....and u all can talk politics endlessly...

another 'Astro'...

If u are interested in politics, go to politics.com...not investor.com

Probably u didn't catch what I mean. When u talk politics, u'll never end hitting each other. It's a endless process. This is not the forum to discuss politics bcoz u'll hurt lots of people who has different political beliefs.

I STRONGLY PROTEST U GUYS DISCUSS POLITICS HERE!!!...THIS IS NOT THE RIGHT PLACE!!!

Best that u guys drop the discussion on politics. This is not a political forum...u may hurt someone...u cN talk politics all day long n never end...

if BN wins...1800?

Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek has his point ...

necro, what we want is a peaceful and prosperous nation...doesn't matter who wins...

wallao...down from 0.71 to 0.67 n rebounded to 0.69...u bottom fish?

as usual...u write rubbish n provoke everyone here

he'd better go back to primsry school la...

HI DAVE, WELCOME BACK. SO LONG NO HEAR FROM U...

Have a nice holiday and CNY to u all... cheers

Same to u...

hehehe KCloh...happy CNY...drive carefully ya...traffic must be pretty heavy on all most highways...come back one piece...

:) Happy CNY...CNY angpow lor

Lots of ppl missed the boat today....

Happy CNY People. Drive carefully ya...