Anyone please enlighten if any thing I may have missed?

Thanks in advance

I really don't understand what AmInvest has tried to say, but seem like they didn't do their works to verify the situation before giving out the analysis:


QUARTERLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (MINING / PLANTATION / TIMBER)

30-Sep-21 239,222 (YOY: +61,746MT / +34.8%)
30-Jun-21 255,151 (YOY: +36,069MT / +16.5%)
31-Mar-21 228,187 (YOY: +20,460MT / +9.8%)

31-Dec-20 180,963
30-Sep-20 177,476 (note 1)
30-Jun-20 219,082
31-Mar-20 207,727


-------------------------------
From AmInvest:
We believe that TSH’s FFB production in 2HFY21 would be lower YoY after a bumper harvest in 1HFY21. TSH’s oil palm trees in Indonesia were productive in 1HFY21 as reflected in the 16.7% YoY increase in FFB production. Recall that in August 2021, a few SGX-listed Indonesia planters had said that their FFB production in 2H2021 would be the same as 1H2021.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/61105.jsp

--------------------------------
(note 1)
The decline in FFB production in Q3 2020 was primarily due to the lagged impact of the drought in Indonesia in Q3 2019. We anticipate the production to normalise in Q4 2020.

I really don't understand what AmInvest has tried to say, but seem like they didn't do their works to verify the situation before giving out the analysis:


QUARTERLY PRODUCTION FIGURES (MINING / PLANTATION / TIMBER)

30-Sep-21 239,222 (YOY: +61,746MT / +34.8%)
30-Jun-21 255,151 (YOY: +36,069MT / +16.5%)
31-Mar-21 228,187 (YOY: +20,460MT / +9.8%)

31-Dec-20 180,963
30-Sep-20 177,476 (note 1)
30-Jun-20 219,082
31-Mar-20 207,727


-------------------------------
From AmInvest:
We believe that TSH’s FFB production in 2HFY21 would be lower YoY after a bumper harvest in 1HFY21. TSH’s oil palm trees in Indonesia were productive in 1HFY21 as reflected in the 16.7% YoY increase in FFB production. Recall that in August 2021, a few SGX-listed Indonesia planters had said that their FFB production in 2H2021 would be the same as 1H2021.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/61105.jsp

--------------------------------
(note 1)
The decline in FFB production in Q3 2020 was primarily due to the lagged impact of the drought in Indonesia in Q3 2019. We anticipate the production to normalise in Q4 2020.

TSH won’t be affected materially by 33% tax rate as Malaysia operations commanded less than half of the total profit, or in other words, Malaysian operations may generate slightly above 100mil profits

———————
greenland 33% tax for profit above 100mio , 24% for profit below 100mio… ok lah. Assuming TSH make 300mio profit 2022, the additional 18mio tax only..
29/10/2021 6:00 PM

Thanks for compiling the information, vivientac

Look like TSH & KLK will benefit from it as half of their plantations are in Indonesia, if not mistaken

In regards to shortage of labour, what do you think for those who has plantations in Indonesia?

I was told they do not have this issue, compared to those in Malaysia

Definitely on the better economy of scale for big firms

Another issue is shortage of labour, it is real, but not as serious as reported in the news. It is still manageable for big plantation because big firms have better planning & resources to coup with the challenges

It is the smallholders who are receiving greater impacts over the shortage. As many small holders in Sabah are relying on indonesia workers and some of them had gone back to Indonesia, making small holders unable to harvest smoothly over their estates

Hi Mr Calvin,

I fully agreed with your statement below, I call my friend in Sabah where his family owns more than 5000 acres palm oil plantation in Lahad Datu, he confirmed that now price for FFB is RM1,000.

One thing need to clarify is the running costs for small holders will be very different from big plantation

Cost of bigger plantation will have higher running costs as we can see from all PLCs reports.

———————————————
We spoke to one Whataspp friend called Mr. M.S. Lee of Sitiawan who owned 45 acres of oil palms
Last month he whataspped us the Invoice for selling his FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunches)
It was Rm940 a ton (In those bleak years only Rm300 to Rm350 a ton)
Then last week he whataspped the Amazing Sale price of Rm1,040 a ton
He said his cost of Fertilizer, Weed killer & transport amount to Rm250 per ton
So Rm1,040 - Rm250
= Rm790 Clean Profit a month per acre
One year?
Rm790 x 12
= Rm9,480 (Really Amazing Profit)

Thanks vivientac, your early statement of “total headcount is above 3200” is proven correct.

1 week trip

May it go back to the level before bonus issue? Let’s see

director keep buying, interesting....

B1. Analysis of Performance
3rd Quarter FY2021 vs 3rd Quarter FY2020

3QFY2021 3QFY2020 % Change

Crude Palm Oil (RM/mt ex-mill) 3,444 2,239 53.8
Palm Kernel (RM/mt ex-mill) 2,387 1,316 81.4


https://cdn1.i3investor.com/my/files/st88k/2445_KLK/qr/2021-06-30/2445_KLK_QR_2021-06-30_3rdQuarterlyReportFY2021_-1327360432.pdf

Though still don't understand why market still react to the bonus issue, but not bad to existing holders.

Congratulations to all existing shareholders.

Bought @ 1.66 & in 2 weeks times sold @ RM1.91 with 15% gain.

thank you for the bonus.

For those who familiar with palm oil industries, they will tell you that price is almost everything

Secondly is yield per hectare/acre. This represents how efficient & effective on the management ability to get the best out of the land & manage its people/workers.

Finally, the ages of trees & land sizes

Not so particular on fertilizers & other costs, as these are pretty fixed & standard

Technically, this industry is extremely transparent, nothing special.

If I were the owner, I will lock in at least 50% of my future sales with such good prices

Future CPO price, updated every 15 minutes
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/derivatives_prices

Thanks so much for sharing, Mr Calvin, it is truly informative & save my time

Well said, stockraider

I fully agreed with A1&2, B2&3

Especially deep undervalued & big margin of safety…….

Very much looking forward for even better coming QR

For example:

vivientac Due to impairment of receivable 2.36mil. In actual this q profit should be 8.4mil
It is due to delay of payment and we strongly believe it can collect back because Scicom client s are well known and established.
Their total headcount is above 3200 and it also reflects in the quarterly historical high sales about 55mil.
Furthermore two clients just started at the end of Q4FY2021 ( around end of May to June). Besides that they also need additional 50 agents to support Lenovo Hongkong Market and 300 for their two clients again.
Overall profit margin improved and retained profit is at 76mil. DY is above 5% at this current level.
30/08/2021 3:26 PM

Thanks for sharing, vivientac

Although I am unable to verify the validity of certain figures mentioned by you, as it must have only come from insider or people working in finance department of Scicom, but I found you have been consistent with the way your commented.

Mind to share? Thanks Mr Calvin

Hi Mr Calvin, look like you are almost in every palm oil plantation counters.

If can only choose 3, which 3 you will put money at?

another good performance day, well done

good that price didn't go up so much & fast, better slow & steady

nanyang newspaper effect?

Good, Very heavy buy up volume, see if can sustain over time

Received dividend & see capital gain

Good

See how market react tomorrow

Interesting

Good result & some personal points of view after brief reading over QR:

1) Receivables turnover is 30 days = very encouraging
2) inventory increased 24% from 92mil to 115mil.
3) total equity = 462mil vs Market value = 376mil

————————

I found below interesting to me:

assuming both Malaysia & Vietnam back to normal upon fully vaccination:

Malaysia in 9M20 = 209mil
Vietnam in 9M21= 330mil
Total sales if back to normal = 539mil


Best case assumptions on Profit before tax:

Malaysia in 9M20 = 23.764 mil
Vietnam in 9M21= 38.549 mil
Total PBT if back to normal = 62.3mil

Hopefully it can stay on the trend

Hi Mr Calvintaneng, great to see you still active in i3

May God bless you & your family good health & peace all the time

Hi VenFx Bro, it is great to see you again

Same to you, God bless you & your family

Safe heaven

Well said, Charles. Any increase in price will be considered opportunity for these holders to offload & escape.

All glove stocks are now back on earth, no more dancing music, no more quick money.

existing & interested investors need to make wise investing decisions at longer time horizon, may be 3 years?

If one believed Harta was doing very well before pandemic (better & higher margin performance), then he must calculate & decide where Harta can go.

————————————-

CharlesT The correction of Harta price is very steep...It seems it has taken into the consideration of the next few Q decreasing profit

I think they wanted to kill the retailers...FYI there are 200% to 300% increase in the number of shareholders in all glove co last year

I believe most of them kena trapped at high price level n suffers hefty paper losses
15/09/2021 11:00 AM

Very consistent movement since 1.45, continue hold

Interesting share price movement

Downside vs Upside?

世霸处理公关危机的手法实在是非常差强人意，从事件的曝光到现在总让人感觉此地无银三百两的感觉。

如果没事，那就无法让人不怀疑有没有潜在人士乘低价买进而在将来的时候高价卖出而得利？

如果真的有事，那就无话可说了

大家共勉之吧！

panic sales = opportunities??

Bought some for dividends

Wow, what's going on? Pleasant suprise

我个人对作者的分析还是保持正面的支持，加油

只是我要补充一点，大家有必要了解公司的所处在的工业和业务性质，公司应收账款放账期为最长90天，只要总应收账款维持在3个月销售总额里，我个人觉得是合理的。当然，大家绝对有权利拥有不一样的看法。

至于作者说的“ 应收账款的数目已经超过了盈利”，道理上是不正确的。

建议可以去看看IJM, Suncon, Econpile，然后对比同类业务的财务数据，就可以理解。

———————————————————————————-
“拿应收账款的数目除于revenue （1865070/18156488 x 100%= 103%）应收账款的数目已经超过了盈利。这也是导致该公司现金流处于紧迫状态的关系”

还算不错的财务简单分析，虽然没有怎么研讨更深层的业务发展和收入增长对比财务报表数据变化，是有点流于表面和有些观点不是很认同，但还是值得给予作者掌声鼓励

谢谢作者的努力和分享

But it is very encouraging