yup mr market is irrational.

the oil will recover once the vaccination is found. iy wont be years...

and oil bearish in case that WHO declares covid as pandemic.

the oil rebound will depends on the progress of vaccine for covid.

when crude oil drop to usd30, wti will be at usd25, alot of usa companies that frack oil will be brankrupt = lower oil production. so it is the best interest of ALL parties to have a minumun oil threshold, the price can go low but it wont hold low for long.

@Dericlock, thanks for the clarification.

@Dericlock, there are 2 questions from the video, one is the status of SF-26 which is found to be wet, and the other failure of the water pressure component in anasuria, what is your opinion on these? Thanks.

100 sen coming later after coming soon!

wti, haha, joke of the week

Crude Oil Price Update – Supported by Expected OPEC+ Cuts; China Tariff Reduction
A technical committee advising OPEC and its allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, has agreed to recommend a provisional additional cut in oil output of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd)

@pengyou, hibiscus will go down if oil price go down, or production slow down or maintenance planning.

donald trump has spoken minutes ago: All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.

oil at usd 69.72

@Dericlock, someone IDSS again today huge volume, same thing happen 2 days ago to press the price down.

Dericlock when hibiscus is in freezer, nobody cares.
When it become hot cakes, everyone become expert. Lol.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is true, nothing changes fundamentally previously if we look at what the management is doing.
I would expect 3-4(at most) offtakes this quarter. I would be expecting some news on whether they have made an advancement on purchasing some oil wells of the Malay Basin (as planned disposal ExxonMobil).

some is trying to push the price down, IDSS at 17 millions shares (about a THIRD of volume until noon). The covering is going to be crazy at the end of the day, pushing the price high.

@SecretOne, the numbers that you are looking for are inside the annual and quarterly report. Their reports are very concise and readable. You need to understand the business that you are investing in.

IBs TP was revised down when the the oil price (USD62/63) was on downtrend :

Public Bank – Price Target RM1.55

BIMB – Price Target RM1.50

DBS – Price Target RM1.40

US-applied sanctions on Iran has resulted in the
Iranian government threatening the movement
of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait
of Hormuz, located between Oman and Iran,
connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman
and the Arabian Sea. The Strait of Hormuz is the
world’s most important oil chokepoint because
of the large volumes of oil that flow through
the strait. In 2018, its daily oil flow averaged 21
MMbbl/day (Figure 5), or the equivalent of about
21% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
In recent months, several vessels have been attacked
(purportedly by Iranian government agencies) whilst
others have been seized by parties trying to enforce
US and European Union (EU) sanctions in the area.
The frequency of these attacks give cause for
concern. In May 2019, four vessels - including two
Saudi oil tankers - were attacked near Fujairah just
beyond the Strait. On 13 June 2019, an attack on
two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman raised fears about
global oil supply and raised new questions about the
security of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Most recently, in July 2019, the United Kingdom
(UK) navy seized an Iranian oil tanker suspected of
transporting crude oil to Syria in contravention of EU
sanctions off the coast of Gibraltar.
In summary, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East
are unlikely to be resolved in the near term and will
continue to result in a risk premium being placed on
oil prices given the dependency of the world on crude
oil supply from this region.

as stated in their EXCELLENT annual report:

Middle East Geopolitical Concerns
The impact of the actions and policies of the
various Middle Eastern countries on crude oil price
movement is significant. This region of the world is
the source of the largest oil reserves and provides
the core membership of OPEC. In addition, in 2018,
approximately 28% of daily global oil production
originated from the Middle East (see Figure 4).
Whilst this region is a rich source of crude oil and
gas, it is also a hotbed of complex politically charged
issues. The causes of these issues are deep-rooted in
history but the present-day areas that impact the oil
and gas industry are:
• Iranian–Saudi Arabian tensions which have
resulted in a proxy war being fought in Yemen,
mainly between the Saudis and the Iran-aligned
Houthi group in Yemen. In recent weeks, this
Houthi group claimed they were responsible for
the deployment of multiple drones in coordinated
attacks on two oil facilities located in Saudi
Arabia, significantly impacting daily oil production
and processing, and, potentially also delaying the
much-awaited listing of Saudi Aramco. This act
of retaliation by the Houthis may trigger further
action by the Saudis and other parties interested
in maintaining global energy security, thus
escalating tensions in an already politically fragile
region of the world.

looks much better than uzma, now hibiscus is a direct oil play with solid FA (and now TA).

their sabah assets are their best producing assets with premium of usd 8 on top of crude price, quarterly has not beenlow as fewer offtakes (2offtakes) due to planned maintenance, offtakes are scheduled to increased to 3/4 offtakes this quarter with additional price increase of > usd 10 (compared to last quarter) oil price now @ usd 70, sabah crude sells at usd 78.

@DickyMe, aptly named.

@SecretOne, i suggest you to dispose the share if you dont know understand the business you are buying.

this is even bigger than the attack on Saudi Arab

seems like a possibility of escalation of conflict between iran and us.

oil at usd70. 20

oil price at usd 68.2

brent price at usd 68

brent price at usd 67.5

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/12/26/oil-hits-highest-since-september-on-trade-hopes-opec-cuts

brent price at usd67

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2019/12/23/malaysia-spot-crude-premiums-hit-multi-year-high-on-tight-supplies?itm_source=parsely-api

brent at usd 66. 60

the oil price sold here follow brent price @ usd 66 (+ 8 for north sabah crude), not the wti price as mentioned by laksaboy...

dericlock, thanks for the information.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/u-s-reaches-deal-in-principle-with-china-awaits-trump-sign-off

add 3~4 offtakes this quarter, then boom

north sabah crude at brent crude + 5 usd premium = usd 70 @ 5K bblday

oil at usd 65

@ Dericlock, yeah, if the interest is 15% then I would prefer them to clear the debt ASAp, if the interest is 6~7%, i would prefer to manage the 50K to clear some debt, reinvest (to get better ROE) + reward a little bit the investors (but I can wait).

@ Dericlock, But it clouded by recent heavy capex on both north sabah and anasuria,
Imagine if it stop/reduce its capex, then dividend is achievable. (assume this quarter they distribute all cash generated as dividend then roughly at 9cents per share, dividend yield at 10% at current price).

But as usual, i dont prefer to have dividend as at this point. Hibiscus need to continue use its cash to generate more growth

=========================================================================

I share the same sentiment as well, I think most people don't read the financial report and see where most of the profit went to (increase the oil production). I am not greedy as long as management distribute 30 % of profit as dividend (after growth)...To make a rough calculation, imagine if they distribute their earnings as dividend for CURRENT production (9000 bbl), and then INCREASE the production (20,000bbls), how much could they distribute (after subtracting the investing cost (interest for debt borrowed to purchase the NEXT asset)?

Scheduling of Offtake

We sell our North Sabah crude oil in cargoes of approximately 300,000 barrels. The schedule of each oil offtake is not fixed as several other Production Sharing Contractors also flow their crude oil to the Labuan Crude Oil Terminal (“LCOT”), as we do, and oil is allocated to each party delivering oil to the terminal depending on volumes delivered to the terminal by that party versus the volumes delivered by all parties. The oil belonging to each party gradually accumulates and eventually will build-up to reach a cargo size of approximately 300,000 bbls, At the point when a particular cargo reaches this size, it is prioritized for an offtake. As mentioned above, the frequency of the offtake will depend on the rate of delivery of oil volumes to LCOT.

Selling Price

The price of the oil sold is not fixed as Hibiscus receives the spot price (market price) when crude oil is sold. Once an offtake has been completed, the Company will disclose the specific quantity of oil sold in the Quarterly Financial Result for that particular financial quarter together with information on the actual prices realized for the cargo(es) sold.

the lower offtakes is due to the the maintenance schedule, it is nothing to do with the price point where they can sell.

40k lot a last minute,.. big leg and big news

Quite unlikely Dec Q is better yoy.
-----------------------------------------------
It is LIKELY Dec Q is better yoy with Q2F19 revenue at RM165 mil (less than prev quarter) and expected 3 ~4 offtakes this quarter...

intra day short at 3k, some one is trying to push the price down

@mitchu, This stock will move only in 5 to 10yrs time. At that time oil will be usd 10pbarrel.dont waste your time in this stock u are better off with dayang carimin

@master huat1, please share the right price point to enter. if fundamentally is good why bearish?

NAB is at 0.79, what do you think,,?