Just wondering if any one factoring the impact of higher inventory cost carry from 1st Q to coming 2nd Q result.

Solarise, since you are in steel mill engineering, could you mind to advise what is the common failure for blast furnace after years of operation? Do we have the expertise to perform repair work or troubleshooting on blast furnace as there are limited blast furnace own by local steel mill.

If not then why you know so well about the blast furnace operating condition.

Solaris, don't tell me you are from annjoo ^_^

The degree of impact depend on the degree of petrol price drop per weekly basis. The worst case will be it drop all the way from high to low price persistently from week to week all the way to form monthly drop.

If petrol price drop from high to low price, petrol inventory loss is expected from refinery petrol storage to retail sector petrol storage. The higher the petrol drop per weekly basis the higher the loss incur in petrol inventory. Vice versa . Retail profit will be impacted too.

I'm still far to be entitled as sifu.

逍遥子, Jay, Sumato88, probablity, paperlane...and many others done a great job for sharing here. Thank you for selfless sharing.

One thing l can thought of is that the shrinking of crack margin mentioned in above link is probably happened in few month ago on last March but mistakenly being used in current reporting.

skyea, your money your responsibility. Be well prepared before invest your hard earn money

Jay, the crack margin of gasoline that you provided is looked correct as l couldn't prove it wrong by comparing it to similar chart provided by other provider. The crack margin of gasoline has not shrank but improved a lot based on the crack margin chart you provided.

I'm not sure how the contradict statement being provided in link as l shared in before below:

<<<< Margins of Singapore fuel oil to Dubai crude have soared by nearly 125 percent this year compared to gasoline margins which contracted by around 17 percent and diesel margins that shrank by about 7 percent during the same time.>>>>


http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/asia-fuel-oil-bullish-fundamentals-lift-cracks-higher-singapore-stocks-climb/articleshow/59269394.cms?from=mdr

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asia-fuel-oil-bullish-fundamentals-lift-cracks-higher-singapore-stocks-climb/

Sorry l'm not against sifus here as l think further clarification is required to correct the entire picture of cracking margin for gasoline and diesel.

Below is the link shared by few i3 investors in before for sharing on upbeat for cracking margin.

Those upbeat is referred Fuel Oil like 180CSt, 380cst which used in Oven, furnace, broiler and bunker. It has nothing to do with gasoline and diesel. Gasoline and diesel is another product of crude oil which is totally different from fuel oil. As shared in above, Gasoline and diesel cracking margin have in fact shrank for around 17 percent and 7 percent respectively this year. What is major refined product of Petronm? Most of us know it.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asia-fuel-oil-cracks-jump-to-2-12-year-high-as-inventories-dive/

Fuel oil margin is doing well so far this year but not for gasoline and diesel

Summarised from link in below:

http://m.timesofindia.com/business/international-business/asia-fuel-oil-bullish-fundamentals-lift-cracks-higher-singapore-stocks-climb/articleshow/59269394.cms

Singapore gasoline margins to Dubai crude contracted by around 17 percent and diesel margins shrank by about 7 percent this year.

杀进杀出，痛不痛快？痛的领悟绝不少。

真的也好，假的也好，不动如山会更好。

heaven123, l agreed with samsambank. When you buy annjoo, you will say good thing about it but once you sell the annjoo your opinion is negative about it. I don't know how many time you have buy and sell the annjoo for couplers months ago. That why l said in above not many here is going to trust you.

heaven123, your previous forecast is never come true. For the current prediction, I don't think many here is going to believe you.

We are in family of long steel...big day for all of us...^_^.

Leoting should able to answer your question exactly.

Exact how many years, I'm not sure. For size of BF as annjoo one, it is easily take more than 1 year from build to get it into production.

I can only say ssteel is not far sighted as annjoo do. If not ssteel should have Built the BF many years ago.

This is due to Ssteel has only one sword on hand...

Quoted by Leoting: annjoo with two swords on hand.

Annjoo still the big Abang in long steel.

Tsai said that the price of wire rods had increased by about 20% since January 2017.
“This is because China has curbed the production of steel due to its implementation of the Blue Sky project to cut down on environmental pollution.
“Steel-based product producers worldwide have raised their prices in response to the situation.

Correct, it is due on 13 April but would it be announced few days earlier?

Here's how much more steel China will need for its new megacity

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/heres-how-much-more-steel-china-will-need-for-its-new-megacity.html

China sets up $11.6 billion fund for steel sector reform

BEIJING, April 7 (Reuters) - China is aiming to raise as
much as 80 billion yuan ($11.60 billion) for a special
investment fund to help finance the restructuring of its steel
industry, a statement said on Friday.
The fund will be run by a management vehicle in which top
Chinese steelmaker China Baowu Steel Group <600019.SS>, the
U.S.-China Green Fund and China Merchants Group [CNMGP.UL] have
each contributed 1 billion yuan as seed capital, a statement
issued by the investors said on Friday.
The value of the fund will be between 40 billion yuan and 80
billion yuan (5.8 billion-11.6 billion), it said.
China, the world's largest producer and consumer of steel,
has embarked on tough reforms to cut overcapacity in the sector
as part of the country's wide-ranging supply side reforms.
The fund will help the sector get rid of excess capacity,
shut down zombie enterprises, speed up mergers and
reorganisation, and promote international co-operation on
production, said Baowu chairman Ma Guoqiang at a signing
ceremony in Shanghai.
($1 = 6.8955 Chinese yuan renminbi)

Welcome back

Albukhary : I heard someone mentioned that MITI will extend the safeguard for another 180 days.
05/04/2017 23:33

Good news

China is doing overcapacity cutting. Steel price will be stable for the foreseeable future as this is also China government end target. Our government should be helping local steel industry at this upon of time and for years to come when consolidation of local steel is in progress to showing their actual support for consolidation.

Government may provide local steel maker sometime to strengthen steel industry through consolidation. Removing the import duty before consolidation complete or local steel industry is ready to fight/compete with cheap import may sound premature decision

2017, 2018 will be steel year.

25 eps is more reasonable.

This is likely. Annjoo can't rise too fast as this will create good sentiment which operator may have difficulty to suppress ssteel price. Today they manage to contain Annjoo price rise within small scale but manage to push SSteel further downward. No much time left them to do dump work

10 April Chaos

Dump & pump tactic

Annjoo got director Datuk Lim to support, no easy task to dump low. Ssteel is much easier to dump lower as it's price is lower which needing less capital to dump.

Plan some bullet on next week for cheap collection

Right, they dump we collect ^_^

I was invested today at 2.34. Next week plan to add on again before 10 April. Good luck everyone.

Leave anyone to judge on it.

He bought in twice this week resemble injecting confidence in steel industry??

This smart director is not just director for Annjoo. Datuk Lim Hong Thye is also Malaysian Iron and Steel Industry Federation deputy president II and chairman of the Industrial and Trade Policies Committee. He works along with Miti and MSI in supporting the consolidation of local steel players in five year plan to create stronger and more competitive entities to compete in the global market level.

Director seemed very optimistic on steel performance. Bought in second time on this week at 2.29 & 2.35

We are at cross road. People worry, and uncertainty is there. We may plan ahead and taking aopportunity at this critical time.

China Reduces Production + Increase in Global Demand = Higher Steel Prices

What’s Good for Steel Manufacturers Means Higher Prices for Consumers

The changes in Chinese steel production stand to benefit the steel markets in other parts of the world, and the global outlook remains positive for steel manufacturers. The World Steel Association is once again as they did in 2016, labeling this point in time as a “bottoming-out” point for steel prices. The World Steel Association is predicting world steel demand will grow by 0.4 percent as steel demand in every market will offset the losses of China, including a 5.9-percent growth from 2016 to 2017 in the United States (in harmony with the A.I.A.’s prediction).

What Does this Mean for Steel Building Shoppers?

Locking your price is more important than ever.

These numbers show that while the world’s leading steel producer is backing off, the strength of the other major markets is enough to produce steady growth in the overall global market. This is especially true in the United States, where a relatively strong economy and the strength of the dollar support the recovery of the steel industry.

While that recovery is good for steel manufacturers, but it points to increasing steel prices in the coming months and years for consumers. It harkens back to the economic principle of supply and demand:

2017 Steel Price Forecast

What price increasing factors you should keep an eye on in 2017.

Much of the current state of the steel industry can be tied to the rate of Chinese production. Because of China’s massive infrastructure needs, it has significantly ramped up production for the past decade or longer. The increased production and resulting low prices have hurt the steel industry in other parts of the world, including the United States, the U.K. and Japan. But Chinese officials have stated that they will decrease steel production by more than 165 million tons by 2020. That’s a 20% decrease in production for the world’s leading steel producer! This decrease coincides with a “severe depression in construction activity” as well as an overall economic slowdown in China.

2017-2020 Steel Price Forecast Infographic

Production is not keeping up with demand
Cheap steel from China has been distorting global markets for decades. At its peak, China produced 822 million tons of steel in 2014 compared to 803 million tons in 2015, a 3% drop in production. At this rate, China seems well on its way to reducing its output by 20% by 2020.

Cheap steel is good for consumers whether it’s from China or elsewhere. In fact, Chinese steel output over the past two decades has more often than not, kept global supply higher than global demand resulting in lower steel prices. Supply is not expected to outweigh demand for much longer. In fact, with China dropping its steel output so dramitically, global steel supply is expected to be less than demand resulting in higher steel prices without releif in the years to come.


2017 Steel Price ForecastInfographics

Expert Insight – General Steel Buildings Are 100% American Made

While consumers benefit from cheap steel from China when it comes to products such as gates and bearings, metal buildings created from Chinese steel are a gamble. I-beams manufactured in the USA are subject to strict production guidelines, Chinese factories on the other hand simply ship the steel to American shores without oversight........................