i m not optimistic on klci, i m only careful on december the window dressing month.

this country is lucky it has ample oil to sell. whatever the mkt price. they have never complained..


remember in 1999 oil price drop to usd 10, did petronas complained?

in 2008, oil drop to 30, petronas also never complained, why this round big hoo haa?

all the cost of oil usd 30 la, 60 la all bullshit

its meant for new investment. the old oil well they just keep sucking the oil at almost usd 1 per barrel, +not inclusive of barrel cost i suppose.

u go ask spritzer, what is their cost of a bottle of mineral water 1 liter they sell for 2.80
they will tell u their cost is 2.00 and must pay transport and retailer profit.

thats bullshit. a liter of mineral water from spritzer only cost them 5c, being the cost of the plastic bottle.


this is not poultry biz where u have to grow the chicken or pig let them eat and grow then sell to mkt.

the world is cheating everybody.

very true. but maybank will restructure their debt... so no bad loans will appear from oil n gas, and petronas has to find more jobs for skp and dialog etc to tie thru this period.

most oil n gas r owned by strong politician. big one will pull thru, and oil will recover to 80 give it few yrs.

its the average oil price that concern them. not a sudden few months low.

in 2008 suprime oil melt from 110 to 30 and recovered fully. the price leadership is always saudi, not so much of demand supply as they want u to believe. u mean suddenly our demand drop to half? as the oil price now is half price.

its all conspiracy. do u find yourself pumping half the petrol than last year?

those who hold oil n gas stock. dont sell. big one will recover. small one will die.

but small one will also rebound strongly if oil price rebound.


now is too low to sell. hold. dont be emotional.

together with thh, both are filling in pn17 forms now.


the first 2 oil n gas stock to go holland.

icon bro, some diff btw 1999 and now.

now our reserve is 10x stronger. company hedge their usd loan ie genting sime. and the world has discoverd a new antidote to depression. call QE.

ci is controlled by 30 counters, 80% govt owned. 20% private, but rely on govt.

in 1999 ci consist of 100 ind linked.

in 1999 foreigner can freely short ringgit in offshore, and naked short stocks then borrow from friends or banks. now they cant.

so these diff... actually cushion ci in many ways.


1999 situation? if that happen u probably make more money than u can ever imagine. how i wish it would happen again.

hedging for real u must by hg. hb is too short duration. u may not see the impact unfold fully in next 6 mth. normally mkt melt towards year end in any crisis.

1999 asian
2008 suprime

all around 3q it start to blow

yes hb only function in sudden meltdown. its hedging. but many here treat it as stock. even talk abt next week target.


icon what u did is right. in your situation.

thats bcos u r not thinking it will give u contra gain and u purely use it to hedge.

many others r not thinking the way u thhink, they think its a punting instrument, and it behave as one. today they see that ci drop 12 pts their baby not performing.

as u said, if ci drop a few hundred, it will shine. dropping 10pts everyday wont make much different to the hb hg.

ok icon, peace

now u buy stock u die, short klci u die, long klci u die. and this

if u have a PBT license, u make money la, everymorning just short the most active stock and buy back before closing.

so many call warrant from birth time till expiry also no volume, so mr smart, how do u explain? they really go hedge the position?

so both way they also die la, i believe u have some math knowledge. go figure how they can make money if they hedge it. and no taker in the warrant.

your simpplistic theory that bcos they issue 50k put warrant they go n hedge in futures for equivalent lot, is so so so....

HB, HG. when u have HG come out, means HB already distributed. when u have next put warrant out, means HG also distributed.


why need to hedge? silly. all is selling at high premium to market fool. they will only hedge when it reach a certain threshold.

in theory la. what u said from the book la, not the inside working.


did they even sell to u? they park the buyer and seller to induce u into it.

Posted by fortunebullz > Dec 12, 2014 07:36 PM | Report Abuse

Oil price continue to slide despite settlement deadline! Looks like next stop is usd50!




where is your guarantee skpetrol wont drop below 3.09?

Posted by tkteoh80 > Dec 12, 2014 07:33 PM | Report Abuse

Issue Size: 50,000,000
Issuer: CIMB Bank Berhad

Do this mean Cimb holds 50 millions unit of hb in hand, then distribute them to us through this few days of large volume, after it is listed?

It is not like stock ipo that sold the 50millions to subscribers first before listing?



all these are created to distribute, its not ipo. they just need to hedge the position when the need arises.. and they can issue another 50million warrant, no nid your approval, and list it silently, u dont even know unless u check the ann.

only if what u have is indexed link..

if u think hb can hedge your 2rd 3rd liners. u r mistaken.

ci can go up doesnt mean gob gadang the like can go up.


its not a hedging at all. the hedging only work on big stock that u hold, ie. Tm, tenaga. genting, sime.

so simple u donno meh.

from my experience, after all ikan bilis excited about an IB warrant. it dies off. volume dissappear, premium dissappeared.


then new call warrant of same nature issue by same bank or different bank.

raise your hand how many made money from call warrant before? less than 1%. even if u made now, soon u will give back.

say new put warrant appear. they only goreng the new put warrant and your warrant bcome orphan. when its orphan, zero premium at all. also very little buyer.

like any call warrants. whenever there is a few days of top volume. it dies off. u dont find buyer anymore, bcos they distribute it asap..

u think the owner of call/put warrant is collecting? thats a joke, they can issue hb hc hd etc until no buyer.

the objective is to clear the warrant asap with profit. finish the project then they move on to another.

yes it is, very easy to drawn into it. this product is a joke to a futures exchanged. their target client is the layman who donno anything abt futures . since new toy in town, sure very laku.

futures are settled every month end, so there is no excuse to abuse the premium mark to market.

in put warrant, the settlement date is the expiry date, 6mth to 12 mth away. they can do anything they want with the premium, they can discount it even..

ie. klci 1733, intrinsic value 22c for hb. they can park buyer at 20c. if they want, or 15c. so its nothing illegal as they control the game.

in futures, any mispricing will immdiately checked n balanced by the trader. arbitrage opportunities exist, ie. u can sell dec contract and buy jan contract if the premium mismatch. or sell dec buy mar contract. or v.v. or buy jan contract but sell feb contract.

dealing straight with futures, means when the mkt reverse from bear to bull

your 10 contract short position can be square off and buy into long position.


can u do that with hb? yes there r call-warrant in klci, heaps, go find out their premium? fbmklci-co strike level 1780, now selling to u at 34c.

all the 34c are premium, 0 intrinsic value, its there bcos nobody can sell it down. its all control.

in futures is a level playing field, u trade together with orang putih and they make sure the premium are not crazy for no reason.

icon, i m a licensed futures trader.

icon example is correct 50% half true.

for futures, they will only do margin call when ci fluctuate 100pts. that your margin.

if u no money to top up, they will sell your contract. and u loss rm 5000 margin and sleep peacefully and fight another day.

in HB, say now is 20.5c ci 1733, when ci go down to 1700, hb maybe 23c, so u add more, bcos u sit on profit and mkt even more bearish, like maunkulopdollah, he added on his position 2 days ago accordin to him.

so using example of icon, govt found bigger oil than arab nation, klci wont go sky rocket to 3000 in 1 days, it will move up steadily.

mr Maunkulopdollh, Mr. M. will then see his HB drop to 10c, say ci at 1780, so since its half price ady, he average down. bought more.

when ci go above 18oo, his hb drop to 3c, he average more (thinking its like stock), so all his money in HB, so ci go 1900. his hb is worth 0c, he can keep till expiry, still zero cent.

2/3 days ago still got 17c to buy mah. now 20.5c. up 20% already, think in %

there r many negative news. but doesnt mean each and everyone would affect klci.

remember the 1mdb negative news? did the mkt drop bcos of that? mkt dont care abt 1mdb, 1mdb even preparing for listing. what a joke.

they know they have ppls to subscribe, that is enough, whatever dirty story u wan to spread, they dont care.

yes put warrant on klci is a good instrument to trade on a bear mkt.

but that depends on what premium u r paying for the instrument.

i didnt say hb, hg no good, i only said its very toppish at this level, and unlike stocks, when klci rebound, this put warrant will kill many.

for it to go further up wave, u need to see strong indication that klci is to break 1700 and no rebound. at the moment i dont see it yet. its 50/50
and i dont trade 50/50 position. bcos the best place to trade 50/50 is in genting big small.

longterm? i remember many who bought Iris at 65c said the same thing. many who bought sumatec at 60c also said the same thing.

sell to protect your cash. simple simple. but many canot do it becos keep got sifu said very good. like orionpacific. said his chart point directly to 1.00

he didnt know there r other factors involved.

nancy. i have said again n again its head n shoulder pattern in progress, means the owner is distributing.

its pure distribution with good gst news to induce ikan bilis to hold.

have ask u ppls to sell from 85c level all the way here.

all ACE counter is gone for now. whatever result whatever p/e stories bla bla.

u r rite, its your risk. i m not stopping u, i didnt ask u to sell, i m only commenting the risk of such a high premium, yes u made on this, good for you, but thats becos u bought at much lower price.

now at this price do u still think its a buy? given klci still holding above 1730 or even 1720 level.

go study russia, their ruble collapse to half price, their mkt only drop not much.

here in malaysia, the ringgit only drop 10% from year high. still below 3.50.

u think klci can just melt down? how many index linked stock deal with oil n gas?

only skpetrol, petgas, pchem.


if klci so easy can drop below 1700 then ahjib will step down ady. cant u see how they support the ci today? all can drop like shit but ci must defend at a certain level, until they have excuse to let ci drop further, ie. rating agency downgrade.

so far even russia is not downgraded by rating agency yet. or any oil export country for that matter.

i believe rating agency need time to see the impact and see how sustain the downfall of oil effect. what if they simply downgrade and oil shoot up to 80? where to hide their face?

imck, for all i know abt what u posted are all rubbish. what makes u think u have the right to talk to me?

in havoc mkt u should hedge in futures mkt directly. it cost u less and premium only 10-20pts from the mkt close ci. depending on which month duration your futures expired.

this type of premium either HG and HB is insane to a futures trader, they just wont believe why ppls r buying it.

in 1990s crisis, where stock melt everyday and index drop 50pts everyday. the futures premium is only 50pts, i have never seen 80 pts premium in my whole life. knowing futures industry for 20 yrs

oil is downtrend. but doesnt mean it wont have a technical rebound. like any technical rebound, its always sharp and fast. if that send the ci to 1800. what is the value of your hg? dont just blindly shout this is the best place to hide. it only show how foolish you are.

the best place to hide is in cash.

yes it is a crisis. but so far the crisis only in stock market. do u see ppls lelong house yet? do u see restaurant empty?

mind u, only less than 10% malaysian invest in stock mkt directly.

most malay dont need to invest in stock directly, they have guaranteed return from amanah etc.

only the chinese is punting. even if all this chinese bankrupt. it wont hurt the govt macro picture at all.

correct, in fear ppls would grab all put warrant. do u know that all ib warrant issuer has the right to double the size of its warrant. without your permission.

ie. current issue warrant is 50million each in hb, hg.

once they distribute all, they can increase the hb, hg, size to 100m, if u r the biz man, as long as u see profit u would sell. as u can continue to issue more warrant.


go do some research and dont be so confidence. if ci can close -12pts and u dont see HG up even half a sen, something is not right.

read the price and action of a counter, dont just blindly have faith. behind there is more things to be consider.

ie. a sudden QE by malaysia would send u ppls to graveyard. just an example.

if ci shoot up to 1800. by any means, as u said, its demand n supply of the 30 bluechip index.

what is the intrinsic value of HG? zero. 0 cent. even if u can hold till maturity nov 2015, ci could have recovered along with oil price. to maybe 1880 again. what is your investment in hg turn into?

0.

oil price near bottom? dont believe those survey. oil price is downtrend. n still downtrend, no sign of it reversal yet.

hg at 20.5 is pricing in klci at 1665, now still 1733.


70pts premium on klci. this is mad. you already believe klci is at 1665 even before ci broke the all important support of 1700?

its pure gambling.


to suggest it will go to 25c mean klci at 1630. thats 100pts klci from current level. tell me which index link stock can drop so much to pull ci down 100pts? in such a short period?

if monday breakdown 10c, then i will buy HB. becos less premium.

its the premium too high that is my concern. narrowing of premium would be good.

why klci close at lowest of the year your HG dont even go up half cent?

told u ppls, now red already. if dj up again, monday gap down 3 c

as i said, this is open forum, i dont care how u feel, i m not here to please u or entertain u.

those who really think mkt will collapse are shorting the futures.. not playing with put warrant of index.

meantime when ci rebound they will collapse. hg and hb

ci to close unchanged?

ci drop 11pts, hg and hb no action. what if ci go up 11pts? hg and hb go where?

ozzie. u r welcome.

at present level, if they push bat to 75, and cimb to 5.80. and maybank to 9.30, ci is above 1800 ady.

tell me, is it very difficult to do it?

today the major drop index counter. petgas, misc, sime, skp, maxis, astro, fgv, ytl ppb, axiata.


only maxis, astro, and ppb ytl is not govt control.

but still they will listen to govt instruction.

Posted by littlefeet > Dec 12, 2014 01:41 PM | Report Abuse

Aiyoo want to collect some ifca...heard anytime waterfall...want to buy some fbmklci heard ci might rebound...me newbie very confuse lor...ok nvm....
Can I ask anyone ard when is ifca q4 result?


what is there to confuse? klci is 30 index stock only. stock mkt has 1000 stocks. as long as they control the 30 index stock. ci can go 2000 if they want.

if not mistaken, klci in the 90's consist of 100 index link stock.

duit, thanks, u tk care. dont beat urself up everyday.