Congrats! You'll soon need to change your userid to DSLLKT to TSLLKT :)

DLLKT Exactly hit my target price of RM2
03/06/2021 6:54 PM

The temperature of the Sun is rather hot at 5,505C. I would suggest that you sail to the Sun at night.

Inv3st0r69 where to park money after this? this is the only good place i know.. this ship was supposed to take me to the sun :_(

Looks like EPF is buying

YB DLL,

Yes, Paul the Octopus believes!


DLLKT MMC will hit RM2 by this year...again, wait and see
24/05/2021 4:35 PM

JP01: Fastened already! But this Glacier Express is not moving like the L0 Series Maglev train.

Hi Petnch2020,

Saw the quarterly slides. Thanks! We'll know soon if EPF's position has changed from 1.77%.
(AIA disposed 2.2% between 31st Jan and 19th Mar 2021. Another buy high sell low.)

probability: Yes, carousel ride around 1.14 and 1.15 and stopped at 1.15

Or the possibility of making RM132M tax-free when MMC reaches 3.5?

Pinky: Phew... no big blocks for sale

To each his own. Let's all meet our respective targets. Unless Pinky is Mr Lam with 48.9M block. In that case, please don't sell first......

Hi Pentnch2020,

As mentioned EPF has the tendency to dispose at the high. For the month of April till date, over RM350M worth of glove shares have been disposed.

The recent accumulations (8th Apr, 20th Apr, 4th May) may well be them. However we will not know until the 5% (150M) shareholding is triggered.

Something is happening. (Look at Maersk's record breaking share price)


EPF holdings 30-3-21 to 03-05-2021

Topglove
Disposal 26,909,500
Balance 474,489,266

Harta
Disposal: 11,698,000
Balance: 242,427,389

Kossan
Disposal: 32,979,100
Balance: 200,185,200


petnch2020

EPF also panic sell back in Mar 2020 bringing down their holdings from 153 mil to 53mil as of end mar 20. And since then their holdings has remain constant. As of 19 mar 2021 they still hold 54mil shares. It seems that the one that has been buying shares sold by our institution are foreign funds which is good as i think they are more value oriented.

27/04/2021 12:58 PM

petnch2020:

You're definitely the go-to guy for MMC!

I had a look at the charts for MMC, Westports, Genting and Gamuda for the Aug 2017 - Dec 2018 period and noticed more of political rather than US-China trade war effect.

Like you have said, all those is now water under the bridge. It's all clear skies going forward.

The next QR will hopefully trigger a panic buy among local funds. The increasing quarterly results ought to reduce the sum-of-parts discount and will move MMC upwards faster than the current glacial speed.

petnch2020:

Interesting angle on trade war. However, if the trade war were to impact port operators, Westports would have been hit as well, but was not.

It's puzzling that MMC did a lot better in FY2020 compared to FY2017.

2017
Rev 4160M
PBT 451.7M
PAT 267.5M

2020
Rev 4489M
PBT 645.5M
PAT 445.7M

My inclination is to think that it was an effect of the opposite of irrational exuberance (irrational despair?) on construction stocks when the MRT3 and HSR projects were cancelled in May 2018. Look at Gamuda and YTL share prices during that period. Although MMC's businesses were diversified, the baby was thrown out with the bath water during the construction stocks selloff.

What created the perfect storm was a disposal by various funds. Between 16 Mar 2018 and 19 Mar 2021, Lembaga Tabung Haji, EPF, KWAP and AIA
disposed 492.7M.

492.7M shares is a big block. If someone were to purchase that amount of shares today, it will cause limit up 4 times to RM3 and still may not be able to complete the purchase.

Enclosed below are the links to the full shareholder listings.

(As an aside, EPF has 499.5M shares in TopGlove. TG's shareholders better hope that EPF will not pull off another stunt of selloff).



Paul The Octopus



16 Mar 2018

Lembaga Tabung Haji 231,569,700 7.60
Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 154,833,600 5.08
– Employees Provident Fund Board
Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) 93,632,400 3.07
Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 76,160,100 2.50
– Exempt AN for AIA Bhd

Page 235 of 2017 Annual Report


19 Mar 2021

Lembaga Tabung Haji 0 0%
Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 53,804,200 1.77
- Employees Provident Fund Board
Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) 9,655,600 0.32

Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 0 0%
– Exempt AN for AIA Bhd

Page 313 of 2020 Annual Report


EPF's holdings of Top Glove

29 OCTOBER 2019
Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn. Bhd.
- Employees Provident Fund Board
166,352,722 6.5

28th Oct 2020
Employees Provident Fund Board 462,051,866 5.674

22nd April 2021
Employees Provident Fund Board 499,516,266 6.087

chopstick:

Malaysia glove factories buy latex from Thailand. Rubber price has increased from USD1.33/kg in April 2020 to USD2.2/kg today. So by your logic, margins for glove companies will not be different?

kevinobc:

The article is describing the passenger cruise ships. Wrong channel.

Every MMC's ports are reporting great results.
FY2020 PAT
PTP: 228M +69%
Northport: 82M + 25%
Tanjung Bruas: 4.6M +22%
Penang Port: 48.4M +17%

At an output of 600k plus metric tonnes per year, Malaysia ranks 6 in terms of major producer of latex. The biggest producer of latex is Thailand with close to 5M metric tonnes per year.

Malaysian glove factories use only 8% of locally sourced rubber. 92% is imported from Thailand.

There is currently a glove boom like the 1848 California gold rush. Like the gold rush, it was the merchants who made money. That's how Levi Strauss became rich and the start of the maxim, "during a gold rush, sell shovels."

What do the glove factories need?
Gas : Gas Malaysia
Electricity: Malakoff
Container Haulage: Kontena Nasional
Import of latex and export of gloves: Many ports, pick one

Go ahead and build more glove factories, import more latex and produce and ship more gloves.

MMC has complete set of shovels!

lawpc128:

The vacant land available for sale is disclosed at:
https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=113669&name=EA_GA_ATTACHMENTS

Those transactions were gathered from public sources and not a tabulation of all land sales. There might well be parcels of land being retained for internal use.

The point that I was trying to make is that MMC was penalized for the 2008 SATS deal and it's share price was thrashed from 4.8 in Jan 2008 to 1.0 in Dec 2008. Now, that the land has appreciated 5 times the original purchase price, it's risky decision is proven to be a correct one.

chopstick:

What mine are you talking about. At an output of 600k plus metric tonnes per year, Malaysia ranks 6 in terms of major producer of latex. The biggest producer of latex is Thailand with close to 5M metric tonnes per year.

Malaysian glove factories use only 8% of locally sourced rubber. 92% is imported from Thailand. The Thai government has announced that they will be reducing exports of latex so as to encourage glove factories to relocate there.

There is currently a glove boom like the 1848 California gold rush. Like the gold rush, it was the merchants who made money. That's how Levi Strauss became rich and the start of the maxim, "during a gold rush, sell shovels."

Similarly, logistics companies, ports, suppliers of aluminium roofs and building sheets, aluminium finstock for air-conditioners etc will do well.

In 2017, investors bought Supermax at 0.4++. Will you classify people buying at 6.2++ now as speculators?

Alcom's available cash per share is RM0.30/share, whereas LB's cash per share is RM0.126/share.

The past few years have been rather challenging. Alcom's management has been professional and transparent in their reporting, and is well positioned for a bounce-back.

SEE_Research: Thanks for your updates. I've top-up around 1.15. Will try not to buy beyond 1.30 (sometimes kept chasing)

Stockraider:

I agree with your analysis. The home electrical appliances industry is a good example of higher selling prices translating to higher margins. Principals like Fiamma and Khind import almost all of their products from China. With a sudden boom in China from around Q2 2020, container freight charges shot up by ten times and manufacturers also increased prices. All the the home appliances importers in Malaysia increased their prices. Instead of having lower sales and profitability, Fiamma and Khind are reporting record breaking financial results.

Information: Does look busy (try not to zoom out 2 notches).

The performance for all the ports were impressive. As you have mentioned, the 8 super post-Panamax cranes will improve efficiency and ability to handle traffic for ultra-large container vessels.


Ports FY2020 PAT
PTP: 228M +69%
Northport: 82M + 25%
Tanjung Bruas: 4.6M +22%
Penang Port: 48.4M +17%

MMC's share price fell from a high of 4.8 in Jan 2008 to a low of 1.0 in Dec 2008 due to negative perceptions of the purchase of SATS and the associated land, and the 2008 financial crisis. The SAC land has appreciated from RM9.29psf to RM49.98psf and is likely to continue to appreciate!

With the increases in dividend yield, port volumes and tariff, increased gas tariff and higher prices of land sales; as well as possibilities of port IPO and MRT3, MMC's share price may well bounce back to the RM5/share level.



SAC land transaction notes:

Dec 2008
MMC purchased entire stake in SATS for RM1.7 billion. The purchase comprises RM580 million for airport operations and RM1.1 billion for SATS’s
2,718 acres of freehold land slated for development as a Logistics City. The purchase price of the freehold land was only RM0.4047M/acre

Aug 2015
Sold 188.743 acres of SAC land to IPARK Development for RM370M, equivalent to RM1.96M/acre

11Nov 2020
Sold 11.07 acres of SAC land to Shengda at RM24.1M, equivalent to 2.177M/acre

Feb 2021
SOld 21.36 acres of SAC land to electrical & electronic companies for RM46.5M, equivalent to RM2.177M/acre

9th April 2021
Sold 11.07 acres of SAC land to Shengda at RM24.1M, equivalent to 2.177M/acre

Available balance SAC land for sale is now 887.5 acres, valued at RM1.932Billion (using current transaction price as a guide)

I believe healthy debate, sans name calling, is important.

Quick comments:

Netx like Mpay will never be able to make money from business operations. It's link to Lien Hoe people has been flagged ad nauseam.

PA Resources: PE too high. Over 400M shares pledged by shareholders too risky.

Mikecyc:

Do you have any investment recommendations (besided PA)?

Mikecyc:


Loans & borrowings
Alcom has a property under development, named EM Hub, which is due for completion in 2022. The bulk of the borrowings is likely project financing.


Inventories:
Out of the 200M inventories, 109M is Properties under development 109M (Page 93 2019 Annual Report). Aluminium products are not perishables. Aluminium prices have risen 62% from a low of USD1430/T in April 2020 to USD2320/T today. It will not make sense to write off any obsolete stocks, if any. Recycling will be a profitable route.


Cash:
Out of the 48M cash and deposits, only 1.148M is pledged deposit (Page 66 2019 Annual Report).


Shareholders:
The bulk of the disposals by SCland is to directors.


10 March 2021
SCland holdings disposed 39,675,554

Dato' Lim Chee Khoon acquired 11,902,666
Dato' Eng Kim Liong acquired 11,902,666
Ang Loo Leong acquired 5,237,173

2 April 2021
Dato' Lim Chee Khoon transferred 5,951,333 to spouse, Low Bibo

An interesting note on shareholders: Tan Han Chuan (of JKG Land) holds 4,205,600 shares as at April 2020.

See_Research: Thanks to initiatives in coming up with the report. I am attracted by Alcom's potential and their CSR policy of using 50% recycled materials. Bought in at 1.03.

Without access to cheap bank funding, PA Resources have failed to build up inventories and consequently will be at mercy of sharp aluminium price increases and margins will be squeezed.

Alcom PA
NTA 0.92 0.13
PTBV 1.28 3.93
Inventories 213.9M 23.3M
Revenue 316M 200M
Market Cap 158.5M 614M

The key indicators are showing that Alcom is in a superior position for either recovery or aluminium plays.

Longer term, either Alcom will move up to 3.66 per share or PA will drop to 0.16 per share

Mikecyc:

In your financial assets vs liabilities analysis, you have omitted PPE of 72M and inventories of 213.9M. Those need to be added to the assets in order to present a complete picture.

The debt to equity ratio is not really a big concern (try computing D/E ratio for Press Metal). The increase in loans and borrowings matched the increase in inventories. And with rising aluminium prices, the value in inventories and subsequent sales will also increase. In addition, the banks would have done their credit analysis to assess the risk.

It's incorrect to state that the directors are disposing of their shares. It was SCland Holdings that disposed the shares. The block of shares disposed by SCland was actually acquired by the directors. See also https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/alcom-groups-secondlargest-shareholder-disposes-stake .