The Balai Cluster RSC covers four fields - Balai, Bentara, Spaoh and West Acis.

Bentara oil field within the Balai Cluster strike oil ! Petronas announced oil production to be more than 1000 b/d.... more than ??? what kind of statement is this??

From Offshore mag, it was reported that Bentara production is expected to begin during 2Q 2014 and average around 2,000-3,000 b/d, depending on weather and sea conditions.

So... wait for Spaoh & West Acis oil well results...

Believe in Dialog !

Buy the warrants... cheaper 3X and rate of return higher... quantity of warrant is very much smaller compared to mother shares...

Cool... ok. I'd like passports,drivers license & ID's for USA, UK, Australia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Italy & Spain. Whilst at it, might as well prepare a diploma/degree in International Financial Management for me.

Look for Bursa announcement made by Dialog WA dated 27/6.

Look for Bursa announcement made by Dialog sometime in 2012 on the Rights Issue. The warrant was issued free together with the Rights Issue shares then.

Ironman3... Yes, with a payment of RM1.19 per share.

KN Kenanga has projected an EPS of RM0.238 for FYE2015 and with PE of 18.5x, they have a TP of RM4.30...

*A Warrant holder..

Mr.C..it seems that you have a misconception on how the warrant works. Let me see if I can explain it as simple as possible...
A warequilibriumhe holder a right to subscribe it's share at a future date at a fixed price. In our case here, Dialog warrant holders have a right to subscribe for Dialog shares at RM2.40 anytime until 2017.
The warrants were given FREE to shareholders who had previously subscribed to the Rights issue exercise back in 2012.
Warrant price is traded at RM1.40 presently and mother share is traded at RM3.80. At this prices the warrant and mother share is in equilibrium... no gain no loss. Meaning if you had BOUGHT the warrant at RM1.40 and subscribed to mother share by paying the requisite amount of RM 2.40, your cost of mother share is equivalent to market price of RM 3.80.
Original warrant holders would have made a profit of RM1.40 if opts to sell the warrant or subscribe to mother share.
The important thing to note is that if as a warrant holder and you want to convert/subscribe to mother share, you need to pay RM2.40 to the company.
As to whether to convert/subscribe to mother share, it would depend on your intention as to whether you want to reap in the dividends declared. Presently, it yields less than 1%, so for Malaysians, it's not worth it. But in future, when Dialog is cash rich and starts giving out more dives, then it's worth converting...later.
Cheers.

I hope that those investors who are considering investing in TSH will take this analyst report and use it to wipe their backside coz the share price is NOT going to come down to that level unless market crash. RM3.65 will see strong support and thereafter upside climb to RM4.00 with a TP of RM4.68.

This is a typical analyst report that defies logic reasoning... your report says any upside is limited due to TSH ' S rich valuation and your price target is RM3.36. If the current price is RM3.70, your bloody recommendation should he to SELL the stocks... HOLD? ?
WTF. ...
if you ask me, this analyst is behind time....geez...

Yes Mr.Casanova.. these warrants are converted to ordinary shares when the warrant holders makes the prerequisite payment to the company; here the conversion price was fixed at RM2.40 per share (1 warrant for 1 share).

Ok... for every 1000 dialog WA, you'd get 1016 Dialog WA and conversion price fixed @ RM1.19. btw... there's only about 195million warrants in issue compared to 2.6billion shares and with a smaller outlay and 3X gains, i wont be surprised if the warrant command a higher price...

This exercise will be completed after WC 2014.

I didn't attend but I would guess bonus should be approved, warrant also gets 1:1 conversion price adjusted to RM1.18.. tomorrow more good news after Pengerang official opening.. PM announce SPV award to Dialog...

Dialog warrant will get 1:1 bonus too and conversion price fixed at RM1.18. Don't miss this opportunity people... will be completed after world cup 2014 ! tomorrow more good news coming..

VLVL.. you work in O&G related ya? My workings make sense?

Gratitude Attitude.. no worries..

In summary:
Oil field RM
RSC Balai Cluster - Oil 71,600,000
OSC Bayan Field - EOR 12,000,000
OSC Bayan Field - Oil 47,950,000
OSC Bayan Field – Drilling contract 10,000,000
D35/D21/J4 PSC 32,600,000
Total profits: 174,150,000

On a 2.6billion shares in issue presently,
EPS = RM0.067
Using a PE of 17X (Long-term mean): RM0.067 x PE17X = RM1.15

Based on current market price of Dialog of RM3.85, with this catalyst price incremental potential of RM1.15, we are looking at a TP of RM5.00 !

D35/D21/J4 PSC (Dialog, ROC & Petronas Carigali – 20%/30%/50%)

D35 and J4 are mature fields with established production history whereas D21 came onstream in 2013. D35 came onstream in 1994. The PSC terms are designed for field redevelopment and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) to commercially encourage progressive incremental oil development over the full life of the PSC.

ROC is forecasting oil recovery of 27.6 MMbbl gross from the existing field decline (11.6 MMbbl) and production enhancements (16 MMbbl) over the fields 20 years tenure on a very prudent basis. 20% share of Dialog = 5.52 MMbbl, i.e. 276,000bpa. Using the same formulae as previous, 276,000bpa @ US$37/d profit (ex-rate 3.20) = RM32,600,000 p.a.

OSC Bayan Field (50%-50% Dialog & Halliburton)

The estimated value for the EOR project is US$1.2bn for a term of 24 years. Fairly straight forward, 50% Dialog share, assume a modest & prudent 15% margin, we’d have an annual contribution of RM12,000,000.

Couldn’t get any old production flow reports but we know that Bayan is quite a sizeable oil field of which by 2005, 90% of it’s oil reserves have been pumped out. Let’s assume that it’s similar size to D35/D21/J4 oil fields which has a daily output of 10,000bpd. EOR techniques have shown an oil recovery enhancement of approximately 30% to 50%, hence taking a low 30% would give an additional 3000bpd meaning 50% of it due to Dialog. Using similar formulae as above:
1,500bpd x 270days = 405,000bpa @ US$37/b profit (ex-rate 3.20) = RM47,950,000 p.a.

The Edge reported that it is also highly possible that Dialog will be awarded the drilling contract to this cluster estimated to be worth RM1b. Taking a modest & prudent 15% return over the project life, there is a contribution of approximately RM10,000,000 p.a.

RSC Balai Cluster (Dialog, ROC & Petronas Carigali – 32%/48%/20%)

Balai Cluster project comprises the development of four small marginal oil and gas fields, namely Balai, Bentara, West Acis and Spaoh. Initial assessment indicates an estimated net hydrocarbon pay in excess of 100mil barrels.

As of April 2013, Balai Cluster development drilling program has been completed. As of March 2014, Field Development Plan (FDP) in respect of t the Bentara field is pending Petronas approval with a production flow of 3,000bpd. Extended Well Testing (EWT) for Balai field meanwhile recorded a flow of 4,000bpd which is now being prepared for FDP. The rest of the wells are currently on EWT.

Now, assuming that the other 2 fields were to yield similar flow production, we have roughly an estimated 14,000bpd production. Being prudent, let’s say discount that by 50%, works out to be 7,000bpd, say 90days rig shutdown, 270 working days=1,890,000bpa. 32% Dialog =604,800bpa.
Taking a sales price of US$90/b, capital costs of US$28/b & operating costs of US$25/b, profit = US$37/b.
Therefore, Dialog’s share of 604,800bpa is approx worth RM71,600,000 p.a (ex-rate @ 3.20).

2014 SHARE RE-RATING CATALYST

The factors that would re-rate Dialog’s share price is her foray into upstream O&G activities i.e. Marginal & Mature Oil Field. To-date Dialog is involved in 3 fields:

A. RSC Balai Cluster (Dialog, ROC & Petronas Carigali – 32%/48%/20%)
 15 year contract
 Development and production of petroleum (4 fields – Balai, Bentara, Spaoh & West Acis)
 Pre-Development Phase
o Fabrication and installation of 4 wellhead platforms completed
o Drilling is completed - Achieved first oil Nov 6, 2013
 Development Phase
o Drilling of wells, installation of platforms, topsides and pipelines, and tie-in of the new
facilities to existing infrastructure

B. OSC Bayan Field (50%-50% Dialog & Halliburton)
 24-year project duration
 Enhance the oil recoverable reserves from the Bayan Field through-
o Production Enhancement Activities;
o Oil Development; and
o Prospect Appraisal leading to Field Development

C. D35/D21/J4 PSC (Dialog, ROC & Petronas Carigali – 20%/30%/50%)
 Brownfield development project (combined oil rate of around 10,000bopd and gas sales of around 17mmscf/day). D35 is the largest field with the longest production history and D21 and J4 are satellite producing assets.
 20-year project duration
 The proposed redevelopment project comprises two parts:
 Production Enhancement Activities
 Enhanced Oil Recovery Activities
 Offers exploration opportunities

OK.. now that the catalyst re-rating have been identified, how much is the 3 projects worth? A lot of it is based on best estimates from available data in online offshore field production portals that provides industry news, stories, analysis & editorials. There are also confidentiality of production information and rarely do management give away direct values as most of these projects are still at pre-development or just about to commence development. Hence, you have to take the numbers with a pinch of salt…

up 12c today to RM1.39... still cheap... a lot more upside potential...

I might be wrong here.. but my reading of the chart indicates an overbought situation and due for correction.. support seems to be established at RM1.07.
The RCPS thingy will probably be submitted for Bursa approval by end of this month, probably out to shareholders approval in Sept together with AGM..save cost. Probably see this materialise in Dec.
By then, Q1 results would be announced end-Aug... won't look pretty without Kesas equity accounted profits.

On a personal note... I wouldn't convert the warrants... supply of warrants in circulation is very small.. i.e. only 195.5million compared to shares which is 2.45billion. Theoretically, the warrants would command at least 10%-20% premium after taking into account conversion price and mother share price due to it's small quantity and smaller outlay to purchase.
Taking Dialog closing yesterday @ RM3.71, warrant conversion price @ RM2.40, theoretically, warrant price should be RM1.31... hence... there is definitely an upside of RM0.07 since warrant closed @ RM1.24.
Mathematically.. you can buy 3 Dialog warrants for almost the same price as 1 Dialog share and once both the warrant price and mother share is in equilibrium, any price movements in the mother share will have the same equivalent increase in the warrant price. The attraction of the warrant then is 3X gain...
Why I say the warrant is more attractive is because Dialog share is NOT yet an attractive dividend yielding share (for Malaysian at least i.e about 1%), but imho, by end of 2015, Dialog would be cash rich and probably be chased for it's attractive dividend yield...

myky67...

Contact Dialog's share registrar i.e.

Symphony Share Registrars Sdn Bhd
Level 8, Symphony House, Pusat Dagangan Dana 1,
Jalan PJU 1A/46, 47301 Petaling Jaya,
Selangor, Malaysia.

Tel : 603. 78418000 Helpdesk 603. 78490777

You'd probably be asked to collect or emailed the prescribed form to complete .. i.e. fill in your details, cds number, etc., prepare a bank draft accordingly (RM2.40 x number of warrants), details at the back of the draft, perhaps need to buy a revenue stamp, and submit to their office for processing. Probably 10 days later, the shares will be deposited into your CDS account...

Assumptions:
Dialog warrant price – RM1.23 (assume your purchase price)
Dialog price – RM3.70
You have 12500 share of Dialog warrants, 2 scenarios:

1. Convert before bonus issue.
12500 x 2.40 = RM30,000.00
You’d have 12,500 shares of Dialog + 100 Dialog share dividend.
Total = 12,600 Dialog shares + bonus issue 12,600 shares (1:1)
New total = 25,200 shares Dialog @ 1.85
MV=RM46,620.00 – (Cost =RM15,375.00+RM30,000.00)
Profit: RM1,245.00

2. Convert after bonus issue.
Your warrant will be adjusted for 1:1, and conversion price adjusted to RM1.20
25,000 x 1.20 = RM30,000.00
You’d have 25,000 shares of Dialog + NO Dialog share dividend.
Total = 25,000 Dialog shares @ 1.85
MV=RM46,250.00 – (Cost =RM15,375.00+RM30,000.00)
Profit: RM875.00

Difference : RM370.00 (i.e. the free dividend share issue)

myky67..whether it is better to convert before the bonus dividend issue or not depends on a couple of factors... whether the warrants were free or purchased at a cheap price or present price.. and whether you have the funds outlay to convert the warrants to mother shares. Either way you are looking at a yield of 0.8% (purchase warrant @ 1.23) to 1.2% (free warrant)... i.e. the share dividend issued 1:125, if you have 12,500 warrants converted to mother shares @ +RM2.40 per share, means you will get free 100 shares @ RM3.70 = RM370.00..

yes.. is does not look attractive to us compared to FD rate of 3.0% but to foreigners, a 1% return of their mega dollars + potential growth, it's worth it... Look at it in an interesting way.. compare this to anyone who is willing to give you RM370.00 for FREE !!

Christine Lee... don't worry if it drops, take it as an opportunity to buy further into this counter (or it's warrant). You can expect sideway movements of this counter consolidating it's position to a strong support level at RM3.65. The present volume is mostly EPF portfolio realignment and daily volume is still below it's average volume; do some maths checking substantial shareholders transx reported, then you'll see whether there's new interests.
This Dialog & TSH is the sort of counter that you invest your short term profits which will reward you in the mid-to-long term. Investors will ride on this 2 counters until 2016/2017 in and out.
Many fellow forumist have given their views of Dialog prospects fundamentally. Market is awaiting further news and their FYE June 2014 results and from my observation, it's going to be better than expected. Growth prospects is immense and there is possibility of them securing another PSC with Carigali & ROC/Horizon or even Halliburton.
Btw.. i am neither working with Dialog nor any other O&G company..

Today's rise due to market news on Amprop's start up of a 10MW solar power plant.

no chanced already to get this stock at RM3.40... next step... RM4.00 !

How much would the 20% stake in the farm in of D35, J4 and D21 PSC contribute to Dialog?
I'm NO expert in O&G analysis, but from the little common sense that I have, this is what I worked out:
On a best estimate prospective risked resource;
D35, J4 & D21 fields = 12MMBOE (ROC's 50% stake)(2P & 2C).
therefore, Dialog's 20% farm in = 4.8MMBOE
estimated capital cost acquiring the 20% stake = US$28/boe
estimated operating cost = US$22/boe
Being prudent @ sales price US$90.00/boe, profit approx US$40/boe.
Hence, total profit = RM615million
PSC has a 20 years life,
Profit per annum = RM30.75million.
2.6b shares, EPS = RM0.011 x PE17 = RM0.187c

I know it's doesn't look like something to shout about, but there are many elements to look at... the above is very very prudent and requires further evaluation + the project also offers exploration opportunities which have not been taken into account & valued.

Any O&G analyst out there who can provide a better informed valuation?

Cheers.

Kenanga revised upwards to $3.92 whilst CIMB has it @ $4.16. Alliance have not valued new catalyst...

Dear TCB,
Many thanks for your free advice on TA to fellow forumist, a noble charitable act that is rare in this materialistic world.
If it's not too much trouble, perhaps you could advise fellow traders or even mid/long term investors on a couple of matters:
1. the entry price for the stock too.
2. also, I would presume that a trader will have a number of stocks that they would be trading on at any one time, hence the question would be how much should one allocate their "limited" funds to each stock, i.e. equally? say I have $100,000 to trade, do i allocate RM20,000 each for 5 stocks?
3. Finally, KLCI TA.
Thank you. Cheers.

Actually I personally would NOT underestimate Uncle Koon's views on JTiasa & Mudajaya. These 2 stocks have hidden potential and good growth prospects from current levels. Its setback imho, is it past years mediocre results, declining profit margins and setbacks in its overview. Both stocks have re-rating catalyst i.e. JTiasa in its plantation-young and growing whilst Mudajaya in its India IPP and other power projects + replenishing its orderbook. I will keep a close eye on these 2 stocks too...

Im not saying that the price will not drop... and it likely will due to window dressing probably by foreign buying. what im saying is that TSH has an intrinsic value based on its fundamental growth in production & profits, giving it a price range from RM4.00 to RM4.68.

TSH price of RM4.00 is technically supported by its underlying fundamental growth in its FFB production output & yield, growth in planted area maturity, cost efficiency & anticipated price increase due to el-nino effect. With it's rather young profile plantation and it's wakubu variant seeds which produces higher yielding fruit bunches, they have been recording consistent y-o-y growth of profits of approx 20% p.a. Taking the average growth in eps of FYE 2014 & 2015, we'd likely see it's eps at approx RM0.26 and apply an industry average or TSH's historical PE range at a modest 18X, i have TSH TP @ RM4.68. Long term outlook is good...

What pisangkuat says is true... you must have patience in Dialog... it will reward you well !

actually the perception that WA not entitled to bonus is wrong. If you check announcement yesterday, dialog announce Bursa approved the listing and quotation of the Bonus Shares to be issued pursuant to the Proposed Bonus Issue on the Main Market of Bursa Securities as well as for the additional Warrants 2012/2017.
Dialog price is NOT at its top yet, coz it's price has yet to be reflective of the EPCC arising from RAPID Phase 2, additional Jubail Supply Base biz, Balai oil field & Bayan EOR.Rough estimation contribution from these is approx RM150m p.a,which contributes approx EPS of RM0.06. With a PE 17X .. that's RM1.02 upside potential from current levels.

Dialog has entered into a Letter of Intent to farm-in a 20% participating interest in the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) for the three fields D35, D21 and J4.

my guess is that they are worried that the warrant would not get the same treatment as mother share bonus 1 for 1 becoz the announcement was silent about it. they will be disappointed coz both the warrant and esos will be treated in similar fashion, hence bonus 1 for 1 warrant with exercise price adjusted to RM1.20.
still haven't taken into value balai cluster rsc & bayan eor + jubail supply base + epcc from phase 2 potential profits.

warrant is still cheap... +0.02c premium onli... it will command more...

imho, the share has support at rm3.60, hence i would say nibble...

don't worry... realignment in portfolio by EPF. Dialog's fundamental is still intact. You must have trust in this share, it has a great future. Once the upstream activities i.e. oil fields start commercial productions, it's EPCC contracts wins. etc..

Hmm... EPCC contract wins from Petronas RAPID should be optimistic... + Pengerang Phase 1B&C tanking + Phase 2 LNG & regasification plant... RM4.20 TP looks likely FYE2015.

TSH is a stock that you buy and forget about it.. that's it until it reaches RM4.00.. PBT annual 20% growth.. young trees & wakubu seeds yielding above average. Don't miss the boat here...

Dialog released a set of very promising results & 1.1c interim dividend. Looking forward to full year results in August 2014.. my guesstimate... minimum RM280mil PBT, EPS~RM0.09c. Upstream activities ie. Bentara Oil Field & Bayan Oil Field should start commercial production FYE 2015. We should see a gradual climb to RM3.90.
Buy the warrant while you still can at this giveaway price...

Dialog released a set of very promising results & 1.1c interim dividend. Looking forward to full year results in August 2014.. my guesstimate... minimum RM280mil PBT, EPS~RM0.09c. Upstream activities ie. Bentara Oil Field & Bayan Oil Field should start commercial production FYE 2015. We should see a gradual climb to RM3.90.

Amprop with Kesas cash already in, should be declaring a special dividend and final dividend (single tier). my guess 3c + 3c. Profit should be in the region of RM190mil, EPS approx 0.37c. PE of 3X should see this share making it's way to RM1.10c... ~14.5% return.