I'd agree that was a good book for lessons from the 1985 recession and market crash.

I find most articles here tend to use 10x PE as a target.
Many property companies are at 5-7x for a couple of years now.
What's a safe PE for investors to pay for MSC? Just for discussion.

"..cash yielding around RM1.58 a year." The single largest source of this year's cashflow is reduction of receivables, a good one-off move by mgt, but not something recurring, and considered as yielding every year.

I bring up a few points not to find fault but no need to discuss areas of agreement. I feel it misleading to describe MSC as world's second largest tin producer, more likely it could be large as a smelter, processing tin ore into refined tin ingots. As a mining company, through Rahman, it's probably very small.

I'm not young, and know Dr Neoh's background, though his CAGR's not generally known. He's a credible, good value investor.
Btw, well done paperplane2016 in 2016.

"Dr Neoh is one of the most famous value investors." Tan Teng Boo is well known too. Famous and great track record are 2 different things.
Do we know Dr Neoh's track record over say the last 10 or 20 years?

Who's the author of this? paperplane2016 or moneySIFU, or they're the same person?

Congrats, Icon8888, I see your articles get a lot of response, all favourable.
Welcome back.

Output of plantation cos cannot be compared month-on-month because second half is seasonally higher every year.
The higher output in 2H this year is just normal.
What you might compare is year-on-year, and almost all plantation companies have reported lower output compared with last year, due to the drought earlier.

One thing that has not changed in this region is our airlines have to take massive USD loans, and also national airlines that are subsidised by taxpayers. For US airlines, borrowing in USD does not lead to a forex timb bomb.

What about fair comment and human error in assessment? He doesn't need to write his blog for you.

YKGI has very high borrowings. Much higher than Mycron's and pales in comparison with CSC Steel's huge cash hoard. For some reason, YKGI doesn't generate cash - weak management?

You've got lift, paperplane2016.
"lucky for next 20yrs.."
ha ha. you're motivated.

Congrats, paperplane2016, good calls on KESM n AirAsia.
Its been a bearish year.

Welcome back, WealthWizard. I get the 26% increase in CRC price in China, which should have a similar effect here.
But can you reverse engineer or forward engineer Mycron's results to such detail?
Anyway, my view is if you get the direction right, it's good enough.
What's your day job? Financial engineer? Evening job: wizard. :}

Btw, investors in Canone may have to wait longer, if USD stays around RM4.18.
But another 2 months to go to Dec 31, at which date, who knows? USD could be lower. Investors have to brace for more volatility if USD stays firm.
My view of USD is it'll be firm.

I don't buy unrealised forex loss is a non-cashflow item, and by suggestion, a non-event. If a non-event, why provide? Forex loss is real if USD remains at current level, which the company uses, as to who knows what it'll be in future. It could be higher, or lower, in future.
So if USD stays at current level, this is the real cashflow payout when it's time to pay interest, and repay the loans.
This is just my view on this point, which covers AirAsia and its USD loans too, but overall, a good article, YiStock.

The associated co that contributed RM85 mil to DNex in its June Q probably owns 30% of 50% (effective interest of 15%) in the Anasuria Cluster.
The SPAC Hibiscus happens to own 50% of Anasuria which threw up negative goodwill RM228 mil in June Q.
DNex's share of RM85 mil from an associated interest is likely to be negative goodwill too.
It's one-off, and in no way can be used to calculate PE.

Is this a joke? PE 1.3x and no analysis if the 1 quarter from associated co Ping Petroleum is sustainable, or exceptional? Not even a remark.

Drat. I've sold some, partly because it's part of Melewar group.

No sign of earnings growth YoY. PE should be 12 to 15x?
How about 5x to 7x? Or some might hold for price-to-NTA, which could lead to high PE.
Didn't check the NTA. No point.

Thanks again, wealthwizard, smartrader2020 and now, Chelsea.
On PE, OTB suggests PE of 12-15x in a strong cycle of a highly cyclical industry?
Btw, CSC's oft quoted utilisation of 64.5% is historical. I understand it's around 80% since Q2/16.

My view of blogs, sarcasm and attacks. Read what you want, or don't. Take what you want from it or don't.
Bloggers are not Gods of Prosperity, and offer only stocks that double. Some will be duds. They're human.
Do your own homework and make your own decisions.

Kudos to you, smarttrader2020. You had perfect vision on cold rolled coil prices. You moved Mycron and CSCstel into hot trading activity today.

As this is a forum, I respect your views, especially as you're a skilled investor.
For this post, I share your conclusion as my view is bonus/split can produce a higher market cap for companies with good earnings, but it can't turn stone to gold.

In companies with earnings, and PE of say, 7x, a split often takes the PE to say 10x.
This occurs in virtually every case, eg contrast price performance of Lii Hen and Hevea, with splits, and Latitude, without.
Theory defies the experience. If we follow the scientific method, where there's conflict, it's not evidence and the actual that's wrong, but the theory.

Then again, should check out even the most detested stock or looked-down-upon company; the stock tends to be cheap, maybe even under-valued.

They had many projects over many years before, but profits did not surface.

If USJ Main Place Mall not sold and not reflected in its accounts...?
Or if sold in 5 years, would one still be in the stock, and what would be CAGR over the 5 years?

Jonathan Keung, who is Bb?

You've one up on analysts.

Can't read other columns as they're blocked by side bar.

You stated PWF's dividend yield as 8.1 %. You would have used its 6 sen div last year.
The stock was split 1-into-2 in July 2016.
So this year, it paid a first interim of 1.5 sen, and if it pays a second interim of 1.5 sen too, total would be 3 sen.
Yield would be 4%, not 8%.
Chicken not so fat la

..CAGR latest 5 years. BTW, what's your CAGR last 5 years?

I'm so glad to read all these comments. In contrast, I found the re-election of a director telling of the understanding of retail investors.
Why would a fund manager be "known" as a value investor just because he claims it? The same way he claims in FocusM to be one of world's five best fund managers?
iCapital.biz fund's NAV was up an average 2.5% a year last five years; he could not even keep up with FD rate.
By the time TTB is "proven right," KYY might have made RM300 mil, as might other real sifus mentioned in i3investor. Being right 5 or 10 years later is right?
If Teh knows market timers who did well, he might like to mention them. Kindly also mention their CAGR.
There may well be, but TTB is not one of them. He is one of world's 5 worst fund managers. Others are educating new investors, kindly do not mislead them.

Thanks, abangadik, just looked up Rick Guirin, who posted great long term returns in Pacific Partners, which also had great volatility during market breaks due to use of leverage.

KC, do you know who runs Pacific Partners? Googled to read about them but it didn't show up. One possibility is they retired before the internet age.

Additionally, scrap metal costs were higher in 2015, and much higher in 2014.

100percentprofits, your first article in i3? Excellent in information and in being readable. Hope you'll find more stocks to write on. Congrats.

For those who see deep value in LionInd, care to write a few paragraphs on it, in an article or here?

John Chang, there's no possibility of 89.5 sen as an entry point on Mon. Have to see how much it goes up.

100percentprofits, thanks for an interesting overview of the steel sector.
Any idea why the safeguard duty was reported by SteelOrbis from Istanbul rather than by Miti or local media in KL?

Wizard, Probability, just forwarded UOBKH report to you.

Hmm, let me ask someone how to copy n paste to this site. I'm from before digital age. :(
Or give me an email address i can forward to.

You read UOB Kay Hian's report today on Ekovest?
Its TP is RM3.00 based on sum-of-parts.
As for debts, UOBKH stated Ekovest's at RM450 mil, leaving long-term debt of almost RM5 bil in Kesturi.
I believe the public doesn't relate well to sum-of-parts, which leaves a lot of room for subjective estimates. The public relates more to PE, EPS growth, dividend yield.

Mycron's PBT of RM12.3 mil for Q4/6/16 (table above) was after a provision for plant impairment of RM8.6 mil, a non-cash item.
If impairment does not recur, PBT in the current year would be much higher on that alone.

I'll add my compliments, Icon8888.
What's your view of a report I read that there won't be US$1.4 bil for distribution after sale of Asia Aviation Capital as it has huge borrowings?
Anyway, I'm in AirAsia for its operating profit, not AAC. That latter's just a bonus.

I've reservations readers should consider TTB a pioneer in value investing.
He mis-timed the market, holding surplus cash in his fund for several years,
while the market rallied, and value investors generally made double-digit gains. His methodology seems to be top-down as an economist.

I couldn't find any ref from FutureEyes' link if CSC Steel produces iron-ore based CRC only, and not any scrap-based CRC.
In any case, there are now anti-dumping duties on CRC, which allows CSC Steel to obtain better prices for its CRC products, as shown in its June quarter results.

Congrats, WealthWizard, enough investors are persuaded by your articles to buy into Mycron and CSCstel, both major gainers today.
Annjoo and Prestar there too.
A strong Steel Day.