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2014-07-27 21:14 | Report Abuse
Another type of investors who might be interested with MPCORP now are technical chart investors , which using volume and price trend as their indicator. As price and volume momentum increases , most like will attract them to take short term position in MPCORP.
Therefore , with more investors jumping into MPCORP now , we should expect more volatile performance of MPCORP moving forward.
2014-07-27 21:04 | Report Abuse
We covered all the possible scenarios for corporate proposal. Let's now try to look at what might be in BC and TPY mind. They are businessman , their success today as CEO and company owner must have their own advantage. They are not easily con by others and must have their strategy to protect their best interest.
As the corporate proposal expected to complete by Q1'2005 , lets look at what might in their mind for the next 6 months
BC still in the driver seat..he still in control. Lets see what is his possible action to minor shareholder
1. BC entering a deal with TPY might with the intention to put pressure on other interested parties to react fast ..if they are serious for a deal , 6 months will be their timeline..
2. BC still looking for a deal that he still secure major control of the company through
i) disposal of Wsma MPL at RM320,00,000 , repaying ADSB , repaying advance , restructure RHB debt to lower interest rate and still with enough working capital to kick start APTEC and Lakehill project
This action will be positive to the company as the outstanding share remain the same at ~ 288,700,000 and each share value of APTEC and Lakehill land will be higher. Minor shareholder will benefits. TPC can still exit with higher than RM0.55 per share.
ii) New shareholder who willing to inject cash into the company through private placement of RM100,000,000 share at RM1 each , to exchange for 100,000,000 share while BC and remaining shareholder will convert their WB at RM1 each. Total cash injected into the company will be RM265,000,000 , enough to pay off ADSB debt , cash advance and restructuring of RHB debt while keeping enough cash as working capital to kick start APTEC and Lakehill project.
BC holding = (163,000,000 + 70,00,000)/( 288700000+100000000+ 115000000) = 46.26%
new major shareholder = 100,000,000 / ( 288700000+100000000+ 115000000) = 19.85%
TPY = 15,000,000 / ( 288700000+100000000+115000000) = 2.98%
BC will use the cash advantage repayment ( 37,000,000 + 8,250,000 + 22,750,000 own pocket money ) to exercise WB.
Although his holding is below 50% , but only fall short by 3.74% while next major shareholder only at ~ 20% holding , BC has no worry for other to take over the control of the company.
Action above with potential driving the stock above RM1 for WB become attractive for conversion and inject $$ into the company.
The soaring of stock price will benefits minor shareholder and TPY. Most likely TPY will exit with profits.
iii) by 6 months , i ) and ii) didn't happen , complete the corporate proposal and stay with 28% shares
iv) drag on again , corporate proposal didn't happen..back to square one and he still in control..but will face the music ( funeral music ) from ADSB and RHB to take away the land or put MPCORP debt into default.
iv represented worst case scenario , which most likely will be lose - lose - lose situation for all parties , including BC himself.
For TPY , he is in play with his 15,000,000 shares in the company . For i) , ii) and iii) , he will at least gain some profits..iv will be worst case for him..exit with a slight lost ..and max will be RM8,250,000
2014-07-27 17:49 | Report Abuse
Hi Steven , my understanding about MOL is that the founder is Ganesh Bangah , together with VT. GB is a smart guy , from one of the article I read. If I remember correctly , after completed standard 6 , he quit schooling and started his own business ( cyber cafe ) . Then , he tide up with VT to get started MOL and listed in Bursa MESDAQ ( now ACE ) but then taken private by both of them. During an interview with VT about Facebook , he mentioned that GB proposed to him to buy Friendster and then sold the patent to Facebook for 3.5MM shares worth Billion during IPO.
2014-07-27 17:25 | Report Abuse
Hi Steven Yong , I wrote a summary for YTLREIT last week , sharing my thought about YTLREIT and their prospect. YTLREIT will be my long term holding as I have faith and respect to Francis Yeoh , very corporate governance and well respect by the community.
On BSTEAD, The management is good . I bought this share for long term investment with RM0.30 annual dividend payment.
Another good counter to look at will be Ahmad Zaki , good management. Can accumulate during market correction.
On jobst , I spend half an hour glance through their activities and quarterly report , here is my 1st glance review for your consideration
[ you can search through Bursa announcement for more information ]
Brief information ( referred to the table in page 14 of the disposal proposal )
---------------------
Disposal of online asset - RM1,731,000,000 ( pending completion )
after completion of proposal , will distribute cash dividend to shareholder ( expected at RM1,700,000,000 )
Net cash after proposal = RM16,848,000
Earning from continue operation = RM0.002 per quarter ( annualize to RM0.008 )
Earning from discontinue operation = RM0.0237 per quarter ( annualize RM0.0948 )
# of shares = ~ 708,244,000 ( after disposal )
# of shares = ~ 635,125,000 ( as per 31st Dec 2013 )
scenarios
-------------
# 1: disposal happen as per plan
cash distribution per share = RM1,700,000,000 / 708,244,000 = RM2.40
value of continuous business after distribution ( assume 30X PE for a growth company )
= RM0.008 * 30 = RM0.24
Stock price = RM2.64
upside = 10%
# 2 : disposal didn't happen as expected
Annualize profit per share = RM0.1028
based on entry price of RM2.40
PE = 23.34X or 26X (after factor in minority interest or non-controlling interest )
Thought
------------
1. What is your return target ?
2. What is your expected investment duration for this stock ( 1 year , 5 years , 10 years ? )
3. what is the growth strategy after disposal ? With RM16,848,000 in hand , could the company fully utilize the proceed to invest in good assets and ow long will be the expected period to generate return for the shareholder ?
4. If the disposal didn't proceed as per plan , what will be the stock price ? How far it will drop ?
5. You exit strategy under scenario 1 and scenario # 2 ?
I believe the upside is quite limited for short term and long term performance will depends on how the management can fully utilize the proceed to growth current business , develop new businesses or buying new businesses..most likely will take at least 2 to 3 years to see the results. Therefore , do plan for at least ~ 3 years holding period to be rewarded under best case scenario.
In term of the downside , it will much depends on investors sentiment if the proposal didn't proceed as per plan ..no more big cash into the pocket..most likely some investors who look for the cash dividend will dispose their holding. So , be prepare for this worst case scenario and pro long holding period
How far the business will continue growing or may face difficult time during economy downturn ?
Will competition cause the business to enter mature stage with expected PE of 10X to 20X region ? Will economy slowdown cause reduction in job and other advertisement and strong affecting jobst performance ?
The exit strategy is important. How to deal with both scenario above.
Example , when we 1st invested in MPCORP in 2010 , we prepared under worst case scenario , all burn and no time limit for the investment to provide the most flexibility to deal with the risky investment. If I have a time limit of 3 years or so , I will not invest due to uncertainty or prepared to cut loss if by end of 3 years , the stock remain underperformed.
2014-07-27 01:52 | Report Abuse
hi Bomchacha , I mainly holding MPCORP , YTLREIT , MPHBCAP , BSTEAD , TENAGA....
2014-07-27 01:51 | Report Abuse
hi Steven , REIT is different than property as is mature and income driven. I'm avoiding Retails REIT as I assume overvalue as under analysts radar screen. I'm investing in YTLREIT , mainly in hospitality business in Malaysia , Australia and Japan. For the hotel business in Malaysia and Japan , is under fixed rental contract with YTL , 15 + 15 years contract with rental up 5% up every 5 years. This represent fixed income. The hotel in Australia will be floating income.
The only downside will be if interest up..but once economy turn bad , interest rate will down and distribution increases..I assume this is quite a good hedging against economy downturn.
2014-07-27 01:46 | Report Abuse
Hi Steven , invest in any stock that you feel comfortable with. Thanks for highlighting Job Street. My previous understanding is that it will be taken private and didn't pay attention to it. Will look at it see either got any Kang Tau..
2014-07-27 01:44 | Report Abuse
Hi Bomchacha , to take over MPCORP or Johor land , Ecoworld will need to discuss with BC. With his character , he will ask for high price and Ecoworld might not want to pay for it. Beside , BC will not release his control in this company. Our thought is that if this happen , it should already happen when Ecoworld bought over Focal Aim..just Focal Aim management willing to give way the control and not MPCORP
2014-07-27 01:40 | Report Abuse
Hi Steven Yong , yes , I can't respect his character..his try to take advantage from every corner..either through stock or your personnel life as so many of his business related to you everyday like 7 Eleven , Cosway , ..etc..Even Cardiff football club fan also complaint...
For his stock , we can take short term position to make some gain and never plan to hold long term. He will eat you like Tasmanian Devils.
Shared one good example with you about Time Square. Due to late in delivery , developer need to pay the TS property buyers..You know what they get ??? BJASSET shares at RM1.40 per share and 1st day of transaction , down to RM0.40. I picked up some later at RM0.20 and RM0.40 in 2009/2010 and make ~ RM100,000. In facts , I always follow his tail and look for opportunity..
A lot of people looking for financial freedom and go for the job you are interest in ..we are the lucky group..now , my job is more part time than a partime job..
I believe you are still young and plenty of opportunity to make this happen. Look for any undervalue stocks ( most under value stocks with lousy management - therefore, they are undervalue )..if see an opportunity of change to boost the value , do take position , earning more than 10X once and invest in value stock for dividend will grow your portfolio fast towards financial freedom.
I'm in my 40s , I'm now working towards building some wealth for my next generation , hopefully they can do what they interest in without much concern about financial ( but not shaking leg and doing nothing )
Good luck to you.
2014-07-27 01:25 | Report Abuse
Hi Boomchacha.. I don't think Ecoworld will be interested with MPCORP anymore unless they can get a good bargain price for the land. They already bought enough land to keep them busy for the next few years.
2014-07-27 01:22 | Report Abuse
Hi Steven , yes , your concern is valid. This is what we concern about as well. Therefore , we always have our strategy plan to react to different situation based on the latest progress of activities. As market is dynamic , we need to adjust our strategy according to latest announcement.
My view about the overall market :
I didn't pay attention much to the CI as I didn't really look at it as a good indicator as it only with limited counters and the reconstitution of the component did distort the trend. It should be use as reference only rather an indicator for buy or sell. I have Tenaga in my core portfolio which is one of the component stocks in CI. for the past 1 year , it rise ~ 100% due to Electric Tariff Pass through..how much CI point upside contributed by Tenaga when the price double?
In term of international factors
1) US will stop buying bond purchase by end of this year and slowdown printing of money. Liquidity will reduce in US and world market ( bad ) . ECB ( European Central Bank ) is planning to print money now , something like the QE in US..liquidity will be flooding market again..therefore , this will be a cancellation effects ..
2) US expected to increase interest rate by 2nd to 3rd quarter next year. This most likely will strengthen US $ and reverse carry trade will happen..$$ will flow back to US ..especially from Asia , which enjoy good liquidity in the past few years , pushing up stock and property market.
Therefore , my view is that stock market will go through correction by end of next year.
How I manage my strategy - I used a core satellite approach. Core represent value investing with high dividend and low beta stocks , which represent the biggest part of my investment. I'm working on tilting the core towards relative lower beta and higher dividend stocks like REIT so that if the market taking a beat , the reinvestment of dividend will able me to pick up more stocks at relatively low price. I will avoid BIG CAP as once CI go through major correction , BIG CAP wll get beat up the most. On my satellite , which is only with MPCORP to invest in risky stock , we will based on the situation to determine how we can move forward as we still have about 1 year to observe the situation. If we need to drag on further , is OK for us.
At the same time , we keep some cash as well in bank..mortgage our properties to the bank for one lump sum of cash to invest in stock market when major correction happen.
No one can predict when market correction will happen , we just need to get ourselves position to take advantage when it happen.
2014-07-27 01:00 | Report Abuse
Hi Calvin , I totally agree with you , we are investing in shares and we are neutral people.
The objective is clear , we want to make money. Just because all this guys reputation is bad , the stock get undervalue during distress time and we can ride along with them to earn $$. We are not helping them , we are helping ourselves..
VT reputation is very bad , way back to 80s and 90s. No one will disagree with it..
Steven , since you bring up VT , let me have a case study for you ..just for sharing..
In the 90s , through all the assets transfer between companies , disposal of business and intercompany loan ( long story- I believe you are most likely between 25 to 30 , you might not have the view back then ) , BJGroup( flagship for VT ) build up debt of RM5B ( mainly BJCORP owe BJLand , BJLand owe BJToto ). During economy crisis in 1998 and fe years later , BJCORP became a distress company and need to go through restructuring to repay all the internal debt. From my memory , BJCorp owe BJLand ~ RM1.7B and BJLand owe BJtoto ~ RM1.3B. This was where the cash cow $$ from BJToto went to ( as of today , BJToto still supporting BJLand and BJGroup ( therefore , you are correct , BJToto upside will be limited - look at company like BJtoto with debt , why need debt , to assist BJLand to repay debt by raising R800M)
BJToto in year 2000 issue ICULS to BJLand to assist BJLand repay the internal debt. I bought BJToto and earn more than double in less than 1 year by subscribing to the ICULS , almost given free of charge [ they gave you the dividend in species to buy the ICULS ]
When BJGroup in distress mode in year 2005 , the stock price is at ~ RM0.10 as compare to the historical high of RM2.00. BJLand at RM0.60 as compare to historical high of ~ RM7.00.
The market value for BJGroup only at RM200MM [ can you imagine that a company with BJToto , ample of land and property in Malaysia with only RM200MM in market capital ]. This is way undervalue from our perspective and we decided to buy BJLand at price of RM0.60 and we received 4+ shares of BJCORP-LC free of charge as company internal debt settlement.
On 3rd Jan 2006 , I was in US headquarter and initial a conference call with other 2 guys..we expect the stock to up after restructuring but it stay quite. We are a bit disappointed and we decided to buy more of BJCORP-LC, each take up 100,000 shares. On the same day , VT bought 60,000,000 of BJCORP-LC at RM0.05.
1+ year later , the stock price soar..BJLand to highest of RM6.60 and BJCorp-LC to RM1. We sold all our holding and 3 of us , which hold the most make half of our wealth from this one stock holding.
The $$ lay the foundation for us to invest into the future..
2 of us still working , but we switch to the job we are interested in
1 retire and become full time investor.
Another guy pay off his mortgage ( he hold far less stock from us )
One investment change our life..no more worry about $$ , moving into new property , have enough funds for children for oversea education and enough $$ to grow into retirement fund.
Did we help VT ? No , we are helping ourselves , we are taking opportunity from the way undervalue stocks due to distress situation .
Who help VT to do better ? those who sold their shares on 3rd Jan 2006 at RM0.05 , worst even if they bought BJLand at RM7 and now only getting back part of their debt through restructuring and dispose it back to VT and make him move into the list of top 10 richest guy in Malaysia in 2008.
Our view is straight forward , we want to make enough $$ to improve our life style..we are neutral party , we have no reason to like or dislike VT. Our objective is to make $$. So , we invest our $$ in BJLand , get BJCORP_LC , sold it in 2008 and our life improve significantly , no debt , nice property and with 7 digits saving in FD for future investment.
Whatever VT did is nothing to do with us. He has his choice , we have ours. No relationship within us except we are one of the minor investors in his company riding along the restructuring to make $$.
If you are in our position in 2005 , if you see this opportunity that can make a change to your life from financially perspective , will you participate or just because of VT , you won't do it ?
Today , we invest in MPCORP with the same objectives..We want to make $$. We believe MPCORP right issue provide an opportunity for the company to move forward from our point of view and we wanted to benefits from it. We are helping ourselves to make more $$ to improve our life style if the company move forward....
we have nothing to do with BC today or VT in the past , we are not helping them , we are helping ourselves to make $$.
Our strategy now is to monitor the situation and decide the plan accordingly . Our plan now is an option to inject partial cash to fund our right and partial through disposal of our stocks. We are taking an cautiously optimistic stand now.
2014-07-27 00:21 | Report Abuse
Hi Steven Yong , is OK to have a different view as everyone way of looking at thing is different but one point that you might get me wrong is that I'm trying to help up BC with the right. In actual facts , if you read my write up correctly , I'm helping myself as an investors..I and a group of friend hold 5,000,000 shares of MPCORP since 2010. [ in facts , I just got back from dinner with them to discuss about our strategy on MPCORP ].
For years , we saw the inaction by management and for long time , we hope for a change in management. How can the management be changed ?
If the corporate proposal didn't proceed , nothing will happen , BC will still be the major shareholder with 56.4%
If he disposed away the asset but no his personnel holding , BC will still be the major shareholder
If the corporate proposal happen as per plan and new management emerge ( BC lost his control with holding down to 28% ) with TPY and 2 others new member join the board .
Among the 3 options , which will benefits the minor shareholder the most ? Which will be the worst for BC ?
2014-07-26 18:10 | Report Abuse
For the report , the content not even close to what you expected..' Rubbished the Report "
2014-07-26 18:04 | Report Abuse
Hi Steven , you bring up a very good point that why we should support BC ? Why want to buy his share ?? I would like to share my point ..I used the phase ' cold eye' , when we buy the stock of the company , we invest in the company and we are the co-owner of the company. MPCORP is a public company that own by everyone and not BC. When an investors subscribe to the right , the investors are getting his ' right' in the company and not buying from BC unless is BC who sold his portion to others ( like 15,000,000 shares to TPY)
Therefore , no one is really helping BC , everyone is working towards self best interest..if management change happen , everyone will thumb up , I will celebrate throughout the night...
Lets look at it rationally..will we achieve our objective by not buying the right and warrants and the ICULS A and ICULS B ?
If the corporate proposal go down to drain , it back to square one ..he will still has about 56.4% of holding. He is still the major shareholder and he still in control if the company. Our hope go to drain and I will cry throughout the night....TPY might just walk away and we loss the opportunity for a management change , as I always believe , the situation will not be worst than today with some independent party join the management.
We are the loser if the corporate proposal failed.
Next , we hope that he sell his asset ( I think is not his asset , is MPCORP asset that belong to all shareholders , although some might only own 1ft2 of the land )..If the decision is to sell all the asset and liquidate the company , I will support with my 2 legs , 2 hands , 20 fingers and SB. This is what I really want to see , sell all the assets sell at market value and distribute the cash back to shareholder. Immediately I will make all my gain and walk away. How much this will be : assuming the land worth RM30 per ft2 .
after repaying debt , will equal to RM3 per share. My vested interest is 1,500,000 shares ..I will make almost RM4,000,000 profit from it..really HOSEILIAU..
But will he disposed the asset ? the answer most likely is no. in 2013 AGM , as understand from the media , there was heated exchange between BC and one or two minor shareholder who ask him to liquidate the assets. Nothing happen.
If we hope that BC ( now should be CC ) will disposed the asset , most likely will not happen and will drag on as long as he can..who want to wait some more ??? Company continue taking advance at 13% interest to serve RHB and as working capital ? Continue paying 8% interest to ADSB until ADSB take away the land ..I think investors see enough of litigation in MPCORP , hope is gone rather than drag on.
Will selling away the asset cause him to loss control ? He will only loss control if he sell his shares and not the company assets. He will still at 56.4% holding as long as the outstanding share stay at 288,700,000 and he didn't see any away..
To make him loss control is either he sell away his holding or the share get diluted and his holding diluted to below 50%. The corporate proposal might be the opportunity that this will happen.
Assume WB didn't get converted..his holding now at ~ 163,000,000 shares ( 56.39%)
I use simple calculation here : 1 share get 0.8 right + 0.4 WC + 2ICULS A and 2 ICULS B
assume all WC converted , the # of outstanding share increase by 3X = 866,100,000
his holding get diluted to 163,000,000 = 866,100,000 = 18.82%
If he wanted to increase it back to 50% , he need to buy 270,050,000 shares..assume at RM0.50 per share , he need to inject another RM135,000,000 to the company ..
I will be happy to see him getting more money out from his pocket so he can feel the pain and expedite the recovery of the company..
If he didn't plan to inject more fund , after the corporate proposal , he will loss his control. As I shared previously , assuming WB converted , a new investors pick up all their ICULS A and ICULS B , BC holding will down to 28% , TPY 14% and 3rd holder 19%.
This is really what investors like me and almost all other like to see..something that we can at least celebrate for the night...
Therefore , the corporate proposal will be at the best interest of the major shareholder if happen. Company financial situation will get better , weak management might go away.
I foresee that once investors see the sign that the corporate proposal proceed as per plan , they will flood the bid and stock price will soar and either will continue , will depends on the confident level after the corporate proposal.
For minor shareholder , what we can do ( I assume you hold some shares but I believe you yet to do so ) . The 3 options I share before
1. inject new fund to take up all the rights + warrant + ICULS A and ICULS B
2. sell some to pay for the right + warrant + ICULS A + ICULS B ( without injecting any cash )
3. Stay with your holding without subscribing to the right + warrant + ICULS A + ICULS B.
2014-07-26 13:11 | Report Abuse
I will be in Singapore and Johor next week , meeting up with customers but not at Pasir Gudang area. If time permit , I will work with the driver to come over to Lakehill to look at the land.
2014-07-26 13:08 | Report Abuse
The East Coast HSR is very likely . China government already propose to the world that they will build HSR coverage for the whole world ( from China to Africa , South and North America , Europe and Asia all the way down to Singapore ) through barter system [ China will fund and build the projects while the country will repay the cost through barter system ( Thailand- rice , Russia - Oil etc ). The plan was publish in local newspaper about 2 months ago. Highly likely the HSR will follow the highway above , from Thailand through East Coast to Singapore , with the facts that China with an industrial zone at Kuantan , Pahang. All this should happen after 2020. Few days back , China announced extension of HSR from Tibet to India and Nepal . To be completed by 2020.
2014-07-26 13:01 | Report Abuse
[for sharing purposes] there are 2 types of analysts in the market , ' buy side ' analysts who look for stock for BUY recommendation and ' sell side ' analysts who look for stock for SELL recommendation.
This structure is no common in Malaysia as we are more on the taking long position and short selling is quite limited as compare to buying stock.
Therefore , is quite common for some countries that investors receiving ' SELL' call for their stock..Therefore , do not feel bad about it..just understand why a ' SELL ' call is made and what is the rational behind it..agree or disagree and why ?
Stock investment is about emotional control , you get excited sometime that make you greedy to earn more or pessimistic that make you worry either to keep on holding..
Don't let the emotion control your investment decision..look at it rationally , if you believe a stock is good , buy and keep it , plan an exit strategy. If the stock is not good , don't buy it or if holding the stock , plan an exit strategy..
The stock is not your lover that you need o commit to it for life...
2014-07-26 12:39 | Report Abuse
HI Calvintaneng , with all the activities coming forward for Eastern IDR , the land will be valuable moving forward and the only hope is that management will able to execute it well to unlock the value. Hopefully coming soon...
2014-07-26 12:36 | Report Abuse
Reported Jan 2013. But latest reported in May 2014 is that the highway will link to Pasir Ris through 3rd link , either from Pasir Gudang or Pengerang.
If this new highway proceeds we can foresee that tourism along this entire eastern coastline of peninsula Malaysia will benefit. By comparison the eastern coastline has far better beaches along the entire stretch while the western coastline tends to be mangrove and mud flats.
See also: Malaysia: Desaru Coast an international tourist destination?
Plans are in the pipeline to construct a new coastal highway along the east coast from Kota Baru, Kelantan to Pengerang, Johor.
Malaysian Highway Authority (LLM) director-general Datuk Ismail Md Salleh said the Government would look at the project’s viability before embarking on it.
He said that with most parts of the west-coast areas in the peninsula being well-linked, served and connected with road and highway networking systems, there was a need to improve connectivity and accessibility in the east coast.
“Although it is still in a preliminary stage, we will look into the project, as it would create economic spillover effects and open new growth centres in the east-coast areas,” Ismail told a press conference yesterday on the Association of Highway Concessionaires Malaysia (PSKLM) International Expressway Conference & Exhibition (PIECE 2013).
Ismail said with Pengerang becoming a new regional oil and gas (O&G) hub in the region, the new coastal highway was “deemed necessary”.
He said plans to transform the Desaru area, also in the Kota Tinggi district, into a leading leisure and hospitality spot in the region would require better connectivity and accessibility
2014-07-26 12:32 | Report Abuse
Reported Sept 2013..what happen if connect to Pasir Gudang and MPCORP land is less than 5km from there....
Anyway , I position myself on both MPCORP and MPHBCAP, Pasir Gudang , MPCORP will benefits..Pengerang - MPHBCAP.
by Danny Chua
The construction cost of the proposed third link that will connect Singapore and Johor could stand at around RM20 billion, depending on the bridge’s starting points in both countries as well as the project structure, according to media reports.
Malaysia is looking at constructing the bridge in Pengerang or Pasir Gudang, and have Singapore link it to either Tampines, Changi or Punggol, according to people with first-hand knowledge on the matter.
Notably, the distance between Changi and Pengerang is longer compared to that from Changi to Pasir Gudang, which is around 2km.
If the line is built from Changi to Pasir Gudang via a bridge over water, the construction cost would stand at between RM3 billion and RM4 billion.
“If the government decides to build a tunnel between the two points, the cost will increase by threefold to around RM12 billion,” said the source at a recent highway conference.
The third bridge will have a construction cost of around RM20 billion if Malaysia opts to build a tunnel from Changi to Pengerang, noted the source.
“A tunnel will cost three times more than a suspension bridge. The government will do a feasibility study on the project. It will be good for both Malaysia and Singapore as traffic at the Causeway and the Tanjung Kupang-Tuas Second Link is getting heavy,” added the source.
2014-07-26 12:25 | Report Abuse
HI Calvintaneng , A bit about MPHBCAP. [disclaimer : Surin Upatkhoon didn't pay me to write this ]
The current upside supported by possible valuation upside
1) Disposal of 49% of Insurance business
2) Disposal of Flamingo Ampang including 13 acres of land at RM500 per ft2 while book value below RM100,000,000.
3) Pengerang RAPID - MPHBCAP land right at the strategic location.
All this 3 under the radar screen of the analysis to happen in next 1 year. Should expect the 3 item above to drive the stock price to RM3.
4) lawsuit with Johor government on low land price when take over by Johor government for Rapid project ?
Will settlement happen ? Analysis didn't factor this in as expected will take time to go through legal proceeding but will both parties agree to a settlement price ? If yes , this might add another RM1 to the stock price due to the huge cash amount inflow.
If a surprise announcement for settlement , raise target price to RM4 per share.
2014-07-26 12:14 | Report Abuse
Hi Clavintaneng , I did agree with you. Current management hold tight on the pricing and this might be the cause of not deal ca get through.
I always joke with others in my group of investment..may be Ecoworld management approach MPCORP management 1st but can't get into the deal due to pricing and willingness to let go the control..else , I will add more than RM5,000,000 to my pocket when the stock price up to RM5 for Ecoworld...
NO choice ..as we are giving away our authority to the management for discretion action..this is the life of minor shareholder investing in public listing company...
2014-07-26 12:08 | Report Abuse
The 2 that I always refer to ..Mootly Fool and Seeking Alpha..one really fool , one really good...I read both as I want to see the viewpoint from both side.
2014-07-26 12:06 | Report Abuse
I used to read analysis report from Yahoo Finance for certain US counters as need to understand the business forecast moving forward so that we can position ourselves for the future. Some analysis report really terrible , some very good with good data , facts etc ..American always said : " I rubbished this report "
2014-07-26 12:04 | Report Abuse
Hi Calvintaneng ah..we are promoting MPCORP now.....just joking ...hopefully everyone view our sharing in rational way...
2014-07-26 12:02 | Report Abuse
From my view point above , I will said MPCORP after restructuring will be uncertain at this point of time rather than they go nowhere...
Reason is that we yet to know how much fund hey can raise. If the proposal didn't proceed as per plan or only minimum fund raise , yes , they go no where in short term but still need to work on it.
If the right issue generate cash above RM230,000,000 . It go no where if stay at current management without any action..sitting there ' bitting the reserve'..but if the action trigger as $$ is sufficient and even a new management emerge , what will be the situation ? Sailing forward smoothly ?
Therefore , uncertainty should describe MPCORP situation now rather than go no where.
2014-07-26 11:51 | Report Abuse
Let's look at it from point to point
1) Might plunge into PN17 in the future
A contradicting statement observed - might plunge into PN17 in the future ( bad ) . By reducing paid up capital , bring down the benchmark amount for PN17 lower , making it easier to stay above PN17.
So , which is which ..good or bad ???
i) revenue to go below 5% of paid up capital ( required RM7.19MM )
Wisma MPL revenue for Q3' FY2014 ( ended 31st March 2014 ) at RM2,912,000. If annualize , will be RM11,648,000 , which is 62% above RM7.19MM or 38% above RM11,648,000. Assume rental remain the same , occupancy rate need to fall to 37% for this to happen ( currently at ~ 60% level )
What is the probability for this scenario to happen ? I believe is quite minimum at least for the near future.
Even if fall into PN17 , there are no different than the company situation today...need to restructure the company to back to healthy financial situation and PN17 might only make the management more desperate. Stock price might fall but might be be an opportunity to accumulate pending completion of restructuring ?
ii) In term of capital reduction, a company cannot proceed with any right issue lower than par value. Therefore , the right issue need to happen at RM1 based on current par value.
Will any investors willing to invest at RM1 ? I don't think so , most will give up their right and warrant.
Reducing the PAR value by RM0.50 will make the right + warrant more possible and close to market stock price and the warrant will increase the take up rate. This increase the success rate for the fund raising.
My understanding is that by Set 2014 , Malaysia will join other countries with no par value for stock. Right can be raise at any price.
Why the proposal happen now and not 2 to 3 months later ??? Management is desperate , sincere to solve the problem or trying to buy time with ADSB deal before 21st Sept ?
Anyway , this is not an issue as the day will come soon with no par value.
iii) It is making losses , no body going to buy Wisma MPL and its land in Johor.
I assume this is a continuous statement ..what is the relationship between a company making losses and no body going to buy the property ?
This should be deal with separately .
When the company making loss , more investors will approach the company to buy their asset as highly possible to receive a good discount price for the asset.
The correct statement should be no one will buy Wisma MPL at RM320,000,000. What if management decide to sell at 10% discount or 20% discount at 288,000,000 or 256,000,000 or even as low as RM200,000,000 just to cash out to focus on Johor land development and to achieve revenue of RM7.19M , sales of 20 double storey terrace per year will do.
iv ) the amount raise after repay debt is too small to sustain income generated business.
This will depends on how much the fund raising by end of the corporate proposal. As I share in my previous write up , some event driven investors might increase the take up rate through their short term investment strategy. [ from the list of stocks that I shared for excess application , some of the companies are not really good stocks but all the stocks are oversubscribe due to excess application . Therefore , if the corporate proposal approved , the fund raise should be close to the max base on my experience above.
How much fund will be raise under different scenario :
1) min - RM141,706,848
This fund will pay off the debt with ADSB and not extra cash to get the business going. Only buying time for management to perform the next action . This should represent the worst case scenario beside the corporate proposal didn't proceed
2) Max scenario - RM230,127,824
This fund will be sufficient to repay ADSB, restructuring debt facilities and keep RM58MM as working capital which is sufficient to kick start Lakehill project and generate income.
3) What if by entitlement date , all current WB can be exercise at RM0.50 and entitle to right , WC , ICULS A and ICULS B ?
The total fund raise will be ~RM377,000,000
this fund will be enough to repay all debts and with more than RM100MM to kick start Lakehill project
4) what will be the cash generated if all WC exercise as well ?
about RM500,000,000..more than enough to move forward smoothly...
in summary , few scenarios that can be good or bad to the companies but will not be worst than today..
Overall , from my point of view , this report represent the extreme worst case scenario....
What we can do to factor in this extreme worst case scenario
1) what is the probability of this situation to happen - high , moderate or low ? low or moderate?
2) what will be the stock price by then ? RM0.40 ?
30 What is the strategy - sell now or don't buy ? sideline while observing the situation ? Sideline , while observing the situation and accumulate more if price dropped below certain level ?
An investors should decide the strategy to deal with it.
2014-07-26 10:11 | Report Abuse
Just found it from Internet search ..thanks Steven Yong for the highlight.
Malaysia Pacific Corp Bhd (MPCB) has found itself in a tight spot. Its latest proposals for a par value reduction and rights issue to raise funds may not be sufficient to keep the company afloat, and could see it plunging into PN17 status in the future.
According to industry observers, the amount raised from the rights issue, following the repayment of outstanding debts, is simply too small to sustain any income-generating business.
On July 18, the company -- currently rated PN1 for defaulting on its debts -- announced the proposed par value reduction and rights issue. It is within a whisker of slipping into PN17, or financial distress, and the par value reduction is meant to help it ward off the unwanted status, says an industry observer.
One of the criteria for PN17 status is when a company has insignificant business or its revenue for the financial year falls below 5% of its paid-up capital. Another criterion is when its shareholders’ fund is equal to or less than 25% of its paid-up capital.
“By reducing paid-up capital, you bring the benchmark amount for PN17 lower, making it easier for the company to stay above PN17,” the observer tells FocusM.
MPCB has proposed to halve the par value of each existing share of RM1 to 50 sen. As of the date of the proposal, MPCB’s paid-up capital was RM287.66 mil. Following the par value reduction, the amount will be halved to RM143.83 mil. To keep it from falling into PN17 status, MPCB in theory will need to make only 5% of that, or RM7.19 mil for the current financial year.
“The minimum amount is small; but how will MPCB come up with it in the first place? It is making losses, and nobody is going to buy Wisma MPL or its land in Johor Bahru.”
2014-07-26 10:05 | Report Abuse
in stock market , it fill with different views point shared by different writers..the key is to understand his facts and how accurate it will be ? Then , factor in this into your risk and return profile and determine how to adjust your strategy.
Like the example I showed before, when I asked my friend to buy BJLand in 2005 at RM0.60 , the broker advise him not to buy. Reason is that management name very bad ( weak management ) and he get nervous. I explained to him the overall view of the company , the return and risk profile and finally he insisted to the broker that he would like to proceed and finally more than 10X return in 2 years get him off his housing mortgage loan.
Therefore , the market is full of positive and negative news , this is common and represent the view point from various parties. We can be excited when reading positive news and get nervous when reading the negative news..but what really will be our action ? Don't proceed or proceed ?? Therefore , good to understand the facts table by the writer and determine how far is accurate and jive with your expectation. If is a valid facts , how to adjust the strategy to minimize the risk ? Reduce holding , change from long term investment to short term investment , reduce TP etc ??
Never panic , be rational..this is very important in stock investment !!!
2014-07-26 09:56 | Report Abuse
HI Steven Yong , is it possible to share a brief view about what was mentioned in the report by focus Malaysia ? This might help to enlighten our view from the perspective of the writer for the article of focus Malaysia.
2014-07-26 01:04 | Report Abuse
speculation : How it get started...
A story from my friend - his father worked in overseas bank branches in Malaysia in the 90s
One day , one guy came to the bank to bank in a cheque , amount to RM10,000,000. At the back of the cheque stated a name of a stock counter.
This guy told the front desk teller , he need to bank in this cheque sooner possible to settle stock payment.
The front desk teller saw the name of the stock written at the back of the bank..like found a gold mine...spread across the bank , to their friends , relatives etc ...the stock price soar , everyone believe the speculation is true..continue to spread ..continue to buy..but they never realized that the price up due to the demand created by them...
Finally came the day where the stock fell all the way down and everyone got burn badly...
Did the guy bought the stock with the RM10,000,000 and sold during speculation and he not even using the money to buy the stock , just for show only to create the demand and his syndicates did it ?
The moral of the story is , be skeptical with speculation. If want to involve , plan your exit strategy and cash out sooner possible with targeted profit. Do not be greedy..
2014-07-26 00:55 | Report Abuse
The same amount of $$ can roll over every month and if every successful application can make 10% , this will be more than 120% per year of return. The downside is timing and success rate
2014-07-26 00:53 | Report Abuse
I didn't manage to find the full details of excess application .. below is some partial information
1) AsiaEP - profit RM8,334 ( 2009 )
for every 1 share held , entitled to 1 right + 1 free warrant + 1 bonus share
cost per right share : RM0.06
applied for 1,000,000 excess shares at RM60,000
Acceptance = 94.27% ( 13,858,772 shares )
excess application = 152.07% ( 367,856,540 shares )
2) GPacket - profit RM19,046 ( 2009 )
for every 2 share held , entitled to 1 right + 1 free warrant
cost per right share : RM0.50
applied for 200,000 excess shares at RM100,000
Acceptance = 97.96% ( 4,036,533 shares )
excess application = 128.83% ( 254,577,692 shares )
3) GPacket - profit RM19,046 ( 2009 )
for every 2 share held , entitled to 1 right + 1 free warrant
cost per right share : RM0.50
applied for 200,000 excess shares at RM100,000
Acceptance = 97.96% ( 4,036,533 shares )
excess application = 128.83% ( 254,577,692 shares )
Others :
Ralco ( 2009 ) - profit : RM525 , application - RM10,000
Scomi ( 2010 ) - profit : RM5047 , application - RM20,000
Century ( 2010 ) - profit : RM3694 , application - RM100,000
Mtouche ( 2010 ) - profit : RM2571 , application - RM50,000
Redtone ( 2010 ) - profit : RM4664 , application - RM100,000
GBH ( 2010 ) - profit : RM1495 , application - RM12,000
Encorp ( 2010 ) - profit : RM1993 , application - RM8,000
Mlab ( 2010 ) - profit : RM1931 , application - RM8,000
ESCERAM ( 2011 ) - profit : RM12570 , application - RM50,000
2014-07-26 00:21 | Report Abuse
In art of war, Xun Chi said - Zhen and Chi when view separately are 2 methods only..when combine together can create unlimited combination. Same go to investment..investment strategy can be combine to create unlimited strategy.. this is most accurate in derivative..by using call and/or put , can combine a lot of strategies like cradle , butterfly etc.
2014-07-26 00:17 | Report Abuse
Hi Seek , one point to add. After that , I didn't track KKP stocks but most was doing well . I think is due to # 2 that cause him to miss the pocket of opportunity. From my memory , I think the most valuable asset of MUICORP is the hotel in London. If he sold away the asset before European economy crisis , he might able to restructure his group of companies well as the proceed might be enough to pay off all the bills. With pound dropping , property price dropping during the crisis period , he miss the opportunity to dispose the asset and need to drag on..
2014-07-26 00:03 | Report Abuse
Investors who are familiar with the activities above will look for opportunity during the 6 months of proposal approval period and react accordingly when opportunity arise. Some can even combine all the strategy above to enhance return. This can be achieve through practices ( like Lee Chong Wei playing badminton , he will react instantly when the shuttlecock get close to him..same go to well practice investors ..will able to capture the opportunity easily- the key word is sharp and decisive ) This explain why we can see investors buying and selling along the proposal approval period.
2014-07-25 23:58 | Report Abuse
Seek , I did try to invest in KKP stock such as MUICORP about 6 or 7 years ago as the asset is quite valuable ( such as the hotel in London etc ) but didn't proceed due to reason below
1. The company debt is high.
2. Lack of action by KKP. My personnel view is that he is quite slow in action and the restructuring was very time consuming.
3. The old style cross holding of stocks between all his companies such as MUICORP , MUIPROP , PMCORP , PMHLDG etc seem very complicated and confusion and can't really figure out how he can restructure the stocks and unlock the value.
Due to the uncertainty above , didn't proceed with the investment .
2014-07-25 23:51 | Report Abuse
As I already shared the type of investors who potential selling their stock , let's look at what kind of investors will be interested with MPCORP after the corporate proposal
1) Investors believe that MPCORP corporate proposal will provide opportunity for the company to excel
They will buy now and hold their stocks all the way until completion of the corporate proposal and with high Target Price.
Most likely this group of investors already bought their stock on Monday and Tuesday and plan to hold for at least 1 year.
2) Investors believe that MPCORP corporate proposal will steer buying interest and take opportunity for short term gain ( They might or might not be positive with the prospect of the corporate proposal , they want to take short term profit from emotional play )
They will buy the stock at lowest price possible and with 5 to 10% profit in 1 to 2 months time. Some might hold all the way to entitlement date expecting another batch of event player picking up the stock for short term play.
Most likely this group of investors will be queuing at average down price ladder, continue accumulating when price in downward trend and sell once hit their target return. Example , they might buy at average RM0.475 and sell at RM0.50 ( 5% ) or RM0.525 ( 10% profit ) in 1 to 2 months time frame or RM0.62 ( 30% ) after entitlement date ( ~ 5 to 6 months time frame )
3 ) Investors who taking opportunity of the value of the warrant
The warrant is expected at RM0.25 due to the 10 years time value although mother share price at RM0.50 is out of money as compare to conversion price of RM0.75
i) Buy now , get the right , warrant , ICULS A and B . Then sell everything for profit merely from the warrant.
Example , buy 1,000 shares today at RM0.50 = RM500
entitle to 800 shares of Right ( RM400 ) , 400 warrant ( free ) and 2,000 each of ICULS A and B ( RM400 )
Total investment = RM1300. Assume selling all share at RM0.50
Total proceed = 2600 * 0.50 = RM1300
Profit = RM100/RM1300 = ~ 7.5%
Breakeven price = RM0.465 after completion of corporate proposal
ii) to enhance from i) , sell the share after ex-date and use the proceed to pay for the right , warrant , ICULS A and B
Example , buy 1,000 shares today at RM0.50 = RM500
entitle to 800 shares of Right ( RM400 ) , 400 warrant ( free ) and 2,000 each of ICULS A and B ( RM400 )
Assume sell the share at RM0.50 after ex-date
Total investment = RM800. Assume selling all share at RM0.50
Total proceed = 1600 * 0.50 = RM800
Profit = RM100/RM800 = 12.5%
Breakeven price = RM0.44 after completion of corporate proposal
will need to be very decisive as price highly fluctuate after ex-date due to heavy selling.
4) buy on entitlement date
On entitlement date , risk of implementation will be low . Investors jump in to buy the stock to entitle to Right + Warrant + ICULS A and ICULS B
The risk is that by entitlement date , if the announcement is very positive ( example , with 3rd party picking up all the ICULS A and B and new management emerge ) , the stock price might rise significantly.
4) excess application
Did not want to take the risk during approval period and taking opportunity if stock price going up after completion of proposal . Highest level of uncertainty ( real life example later - AsiaEP few years back )
This practice is for investors with spare cash for at least 1 month ( assume keeping in cash account with minimum interest return )
assume buying 1,000 shares today at RM0.50 = RM500
Entitle to 800 right + 400 warrant + 2000 each ICULS A and B ( Total RM1600 )
Spare RM10,000 to go for excess application of 10,000 shares of right + warrant ( RM5,000 ) and 25,000 each of ICULS and ICULS B ( RM5,000 )
If received 1,000 right + 500 warrant + 2500 ICULS A and 2500 ICULS B
Total investment = RM2,300
2,800 * 0.50 + 900 * 0.25 + 9,000 * 0.1 = RM2,525
profit = RM225 / RM2300 = ~ 9.8% profit
If received 10,000 rights + 5000 warrants + 25000 ICULS A and 25000 ICULS B ( RM10,000 )
Total investment = RM11,300
11,300 * 0.50 + 5400 * 0.25 + 54,000 * 0.1 = RM12,400
profit = RM1,100 / RM11,300 = ~9.8%
This is taking the opportunity of some investors did not subscribe to their right + warrant + ICULS A and B
5) LR and CR
Some will only invest in LR ( The right to subscribe The Right ) and CR ( The right to subscribe the ICULS and ICULS B )
Investors that expected to buy the LR and CR at discount price and to gain from the differences
Example , after ex-date , the stock price at RM0.50. As the LR + RM0.50 = 1 share + 1 warrant = RM0.50 + RM0.25 = RM0.75 , the investors might try to purchase the LR at low price , trying to take advantage of investors who did not plan to subscribe to the right and warrant while did not know the price of the warrant.
If can purchase the LR below RM0.18 , the profit will be more than 10%
LR + Right = 0.18 + 0.50 = 0.68
Right + warrant = RM0.50 + RM0.25 = 0.75
Profit = RM0.07 / RM0.68 = ~ 10.29%
2014-07-25 22:46 | Report Abuse
To all , I'm here to share my experience and knowledge. I like debating as this will initiate more thinking and fill up the puzzle for a better picture. What I shared about myself so far is true and without any ex-aggregation. I'm not here to promote any stock or trying to do any manipulation. This space is too small to influence the movement of the stock as is full of retails investors with small holding as compare to the big shark out there.
Today , stock market integrity improved significantly as compare to the 80s or 90s. We have a fairly good chance to excel together with the big shark.
The 90s thought of major shareholder will push up the share and sell was no longer a valid way for them to do without distributing the benefits to the minor shareholders as the Bursa require a filling for stock disposed or acquired by major shareholder and major shareholder need to inform SC if they intended to sell or buy any stock within one month of quarterly report announcement.
By paying attention to the SEC filling , we will able to adjust our strategy accordingly.
The filling provide us with the advantage against the major shareholder as we know what he or she is doing but not our strategy.
If they would like to get 3rd party to push up the stock price and sell later to gain as per the thought of manipulation in the 80s and 90s , we can always have the strategy to sell at a price range and instead of trapping you , they trapped themselves..
John So and Halim Saad did try to make their magic as per in the 90s. When they announced that they acquired certain percentage of share some small cap stocks in Bursa, no one excited about and totally no movement..The market is mature than years before.
We as minor shareholder , if can avoid following the speculation like in the 90s , our chances of making $$ is bright.
In the 90s , how many ppl surrounding me lost their wealth due to speculation ? A retiree in Taiping suicide as he contra 10,000 shares of Union Paper at 22.10 ( went all the way up from penny to highest 22.10 ) and the only 10,000 shares transacted at RM22.10 and after that the stock price fell all the way and then bankrupt. He has no $$ to pay..so , he choose to end his life.
90s stock market full of sadness..we are more fortunate today as we can invest in Unit Trust if we lack of investment knowledge and if we choose to invest ourselves , we always has reference such as analysis report to refer to..
I would like to share my experience and investment method that you can consider..I'm not here to promote myself ( I rather do nothing and relax ) or trying to influence anyone with my write up. As human being , we are able to read , understand and decide.
2014-07-25 21:57 | Report Abuse
I'm here to do my analysis and FY Koay started all the personnel attack... read through you own comment from beginning.
I hope that you keep your personnel attack away from me...
2014-07-25 18:25 | Report Abuse
I didn't manage to look at the stock price in the afternoon as need to drop by the YB office for some projects discussion and caught in the slow traffic. Is a surprise to the me the price up about 6% today which seem to be buyers are more eager than what I expected. As the volume dropped to about 400K yesterday , some investors who plan to wait for lower price might now panic and jump in. But I believe the price will stay between 0.455 to 0.50 for a while , volume in downward trend before go across 0.50 and with heavy selling and stay between RM0.50 to RM0.55. I will share some write up on event driven investors can take on MPCORP corporate proposal , hopefully before next Tuesday as after this , I will be busy travelling for business for couple of days.
Today seem to be a good day for me , MPHBCAP up more than 10% and my portfolio value up by few hundred K.
2014-07-25 09:29 | Report Abuse
I actually quite respect this guy as compare to the previous one in the 90s , who was more like a puppet . This guy is very smart and wise..smart guy see the opportunity and fully utilize it..
2014-07-25 09:26 | Report Abuse
Hi Fortuneball , you are correct..BC almost by his own now..he better react fast.. The influence power of the Tan Sri still very much powerful as the favor he make to the government on cleaning up the GLC..he will get rewarded although his old ' boss' is losing control but he is moving forward well with the new ' boss'..
The market speculation is that he is keen with MAS..another favor for reward..
2014-07-25 09:21 | Report Abuse
hi nch218 , as I shared earlier ( you can refer to the forum for more information) , some investors who hold the stock didn't want to invest more $$ into the company due to past bad experience ( 2010 right issue with warrant ) and concern about weak management, therefore, once they read the corporate proposal on Friday , the 1st question came to their mind , asked for $$ again and the $$ requested is huge in amount ( 10,000 shares will required RM8,000 , imagine if you hold 100,000 of shares ..which is quite a burden for retails investors ). This group of investors will choose to sell.
Next group that will sell their shares will be current holder who participate in right and warrant but didn't plan to invest further. Therefore , they will sell their share once go above RM0.50.
The high volume of transaction indicate that while panic investors are selling , some opportunists came in to pick up the stocks.
you can refer to the write up earlier about the return and risk about investing in this stock and the possible strategy to use..you can decide base on your personnel investment profile as everyone is different.
2014-07-25 09:14 | Report Abuse
I used a self develop technical chart to manage the buy sell..I never worry about all this goreng kaki as I only worry when no one goreng and the stock price quite like dead water...once they goreng.. I will have share to sell to them..the higher they goreng..the more I sell..once the goreng over , price down , I buy and average price down and one day , I get back my initiate investment and the stock is at zero cost..bankrupt also no problem...
2014-07-25 09:10 | Report Abuse
in 8 minutes of transaction..214,900 shares transacted 0.47 to 0.485 and now at 0.485. It seem like market is more optimistic than I thought..
someone will said , must be the major shareholder get someone to goreng it up ..I don't really care , as long as no news , my strategy remain the same..up you go , I sell to you. Down it go , I buy back...
2014-07-25 08:54 | Report Abuse
Let me share why the ' man behind the scene' or partners of some investors are very important..
About 6 years ago , ( dig out from my memory ) a write up about interview with KKP , who used to be one of the richest guy in Malaysia but disappeared from the scene almost 20 years ago and most of his listed companies not really don't well for the past 10 years.
He is a 'good friend ' of Finance Minister. When his friend step down as Finance Minister , he decided ( may be should call 'force' ) to dispose his holding in the bank he hold. He shared his experience . A negotiation was on going at one of the hotel in KL , the deal was way below expectation , he walked out from the meeting room. Later , someone call him and ' advice' him to accept it. He went back to the negotiation next day and accepted the deal. After completed the transaction , the bank received licence for another 100 branches throughout the country.
He didn't mention the name but can be quite easily predicted.
The moral of the story is that the person behind the scene is important , especially those with strong political influence.
My observation is that market integrity improved quite significantly since the 90s but still , in any of the countries in this world , this still on going [ if interested , can search for another article about "United Banana Republic" ( I read the article in Chinese Press ) about how a company using political influence to monopolize banana supply to US ] and someone with political background will be in advantage side.
2 to 3 years back , when UMLand which own Seri Alam taken private by the tycoon and the business alliance , across my mid is that will he be interested with MPCORP land in Iskandar as this land adjoin to his land in Seri Alam ?? I wish he will do that as most likely he will pay premium for the stock based on his track record on taking listed company private. But nothing happen and I continue to buy sell within a price range to average down my holding price [ before corporate proposal , 0.42 to 3.00 , now adjusted to 0.42 to 1.60 due to dilution effects after completion of proposal ]
When Calvintaneng shared the information about the 1.8km 6 lanes road from Seri Aman to Lakehill and ADSB claiming the land , it make me remember again about the thought as above.. couple with the insider trading charge..is all this related ? I don't have an answer , I don't want to speculate , so , I keep it to myself and only share when related question bring up.
His company already thousands and thousands of acres of land at East IDR but he is ambitious businessman that always look for opportunity. With his financial and political influence , nothing is impossible to him. Will ADSB later sell the land to his company ?
My thought is that his company is the bigger treat than anyone else mention above like TPY etc..if he is interested with the land , he came from behind the scene , will be like Spinosaurus against Chameleon..
Therefore , my view is that current major shareholder should know that he cannot drag any longer , ADSB and RHB can anytime trigger a default on MPCORP and ' lelong ' will come..his iconic dream of APTEC Is gone ..
While the opportunity is still there , he need to act fast , get the company back on track. Therefore , I'm cautiously optimistic about the corporate proposal , especially the corporate proposal ' hint' that someone need to take up the ICULS A and B to make this happen and this need to be done before circular is distributed ( should refer to entitlement date )
in stock investment , the student know how to buy but the sifu know how to exit. What it means is buying is easy but to decide when to sell is challenging. Therefore , for every investment , we need to determine the exit strategy and execute it accordingly.
My exit strategy is simple
if the corporate proposal happen and new management emerge , I will raise my price range to 1.00 to 1.60 ( from current 0.42 to 1.60 ) and sell everything when hit 1.60 ( or any latest valuation price adjusted according to the latest information released )
Worst case scenario , nothing happen , I target to sell it no less than RM0.50 per share with only few hundred K profits and continue to drag on until I see everything.
2014-07-25 08:24 | Report Abuse
Hi Hong Haye , Thank you . As for MPCORP , I already shared the overall review of the company , possible events , return and risk profile and possible strategy , my plan is to focus more on the stock price movement and the possibilities what is happening. Once there was any filling to Bursa , I will keep posting on my view. Stock investment is about the predicting the future..the probability of success increases if digesting more information and fill up the puzzle and draw up the scenarios and probability of happening. As this is about prediction , it might not be 100% accurate , therefore , it should represent any over view represent the information available during the time of publish and adjust accordingly with new information. [ this is why stock market is consider dynamic ]
Stock: [MPCORP]: MALAYSIA PACIFIC CORP BHD
2014-07-27 21:18 | Report Abuse
I pretty much cover on all the scenarios and strategy for MPCORP. Moving forward , I will share my thought once filling at Bursa observe.
I will end the session with a letter to BC...
Dear BC , for years ..every day and night..I think about you ..I dream about you...trying to figure out what is in your mind...I wish that in the future..you will not break my heart !!!!!!!!