Branson is quitting? Must be joking right.. the fella wagered his whole island as collateral to save his company. I don't think that looks like someone who's quitting. Looks like someone who's fighting.

Hi @VSLSB , how is 15% discount rate optimistic compared to 6-8%?

By discount rate 15%, i am being more conservative. I discount the projected cashflow by 15% each year into the future. Rather than discounting only 6-8%. Discount rate is individual to each investor.. not by company ya.

I come up with similar valuation using my DCF model with conservative 10% growth, and 15% discount rate. This kind of valuation is for long term beyond 3-5 years. If you're a trader, this doesn't mean anything for you.

Good move MyEG! Airasia's Santan has already launched similar initiative last week I believe.

LOL the oil price falling actually has zero correlation whatsoever to Covid19

What analysis? It's just a Facebook profile. Unless you make your post on a public post.

People's lives at stake, many here talking as if lives not important betting people's death and hoping for individuals to go ICU. Global crisis is a joke to you, then you're not human.

Anybody know where is Pak Tua?

What do u mean by Chinese MD? is that a company? Appreciate if u can you quote your sources for my reference please, I can't seem to find it anywhere.

Contration here and still buying. Everyone knows airline is a cyclical business. Everyone knows past epidemics die down after some time. I value AA not just as a pure airline company, but sum of parts on its tech businesses. I'm optimistic in AA's prospects, looking forward to what AA will be in 5 years' time. Being quiet and not flooding the forum with nonsense comments doesn't mean there aren't any contration value investors :)

If myeg were to be listed on Wall Street, it would have enjoyed growth stock premium at least PE30. No wonder Malaysian startups prefer to be listed elsewhere. Malaysian market cannot appreciate good businesses. Speculators and gamblers a lot.

Been bullish all the way since 1.9 averaged down from 2.5, 1.8, 1.6, to now 1.1. My bullish thesis on Airasia is still intact - happy to acquire more. We long term investors don’t need to shout for every 5 cents movement in price.

Investing is about each individual's risk vs reward. I don't see how that is a coward. Why do u feel like you're competing with PakTua?

Eh? How come no quarterly performance release today?

If I were at AGM, I would ask these these questions:

1. In view of management, is there any growth catalyst in plans aside from ramping up marketing efforts and joining more furniture fares?

2. If so, how much % increase from marketing cost is expected this year? How much marketing was spent last year?

3. Mandate to buy up to 10% of outstanding shares were acquired for 2 years in a row, but no actual shares buyback also. Does management have better ideas to utilize the cash hoard of RM86 mil?

4. How much % are the expecting cost labour from implementation of minimum salary cap?

Recap my assessment back in Jan: MYEG is that it will have no problem growing EPS at minimum 20% p.a. That is very conservative considering growth has been 30-50% for the past 6 years.

With a DCF valuation of 20% growth and PE of 20, I value MYEG at

2-year horizon: rm1.90/share
5-year horizon: rm3.30/share

Growth spurred by aggressive tailwinds in high population countries Philippines, Indonesia, and Bangladesh.

With gross margin at 50% consistently past few years, profits would need to tank 50% in order to make a loss. And risk of that happening is lower than 5% for me as government services is a sticky business and has high cost of change.

At current price of 1.12, this is hugely attractive for medium-long term investors with significant margin of safety of at least 50% in my view.
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Still a long runway upside!

No news nothing, how come go up? Was going to add more to my position:(

@Risktransformer , on the article you shared, that's not what Tun M commented. He did not say there's nothing wrong with AA.

Supersaiyan what saman are you talking about? Investigation barely started and still on-going!

It's a standard international practice show of confidence and willingness to cooperate with any internal investigations without being in the way of conflict of interest as CEO/Chairman. I applaud the move to step aside.

But the things is speculators and gamblers are already keen to brand the duo as guilty. So.... price tanked, and created excellent opportunity with at least minimum 50-60% margin of safety for long term investors for the price to eventually revert to the mean. Or at least 20% from liquidation price book value.

People will still fly, revenues will still come in. Bankruptcy is far from reality. Traders say SELL. I remain bullish of AA's long term potential.

Racist comment alert, should be careful.

Separate note, Paktua I wish I can understand your song lyrics or poems better. U seem to hv a lot of experience.

My assumption is short term traders say overvalued n sell (due to short time horizon from few months to a year, they expect price to potentially fall further or no rebound). Those who say undervalued (like me) are value investors who value companies with a 5-10 year horizon, extrapolating what the business would most likely become in that time horizon within a conservative growth of profits and applying an appropriate discount rate to that cash flows expecting company to weather the short term calamities and heavy investments - and eventually to bear fruits in the future. To quote Peter Lynch, my take for investing in Airasia is for its turnaround story and asset play (assets inside company that is yet to be realised by the market).

No right or wrong. If you have a long term horizon, this is good entry price. But if you are short term trader, and extremely bearish on the company, why not walk the talk by shorting the stock :)

If I were the owners, I would strongly consider a secondary listing in HKSE where Airasia as the largest LCC with biggest market share in SEA region would be better appreciated by a more global band of investors. Stocks listed in KLSE do not attract much foreign capital. Valuation mostly rely on the local institutional investors and speculators like those here always everyday shouting “keretapi, sawadikap, aiyoyo, pomen, tut2, or TF cashout”. Airasia is severely undervalued and if founders are truly focused on increasing shareholder value, I definitely see more IPOs coming up to boost valuation and profile. This level of pricing by the market is a joke and at the same time provides unparalleled opportunity for medium-long term value investors. Long Airasia for the win.

To date, AAG is still owned by majority shareholder Tune Air (25%) and Tune Air (23%) to date. No prize for guessing who owns the investment holding company of Tune Group. This excludes the amount of shares directly owned by the founders outside of their investment vehicle.

Those that said owners have cashed out... hurmm.

@Graham , thanks! Was wondering whether I'm the only one noticing a significant long term mis-match between current price and value

Looks like majority here are short term traders here. So few long term investors.

My assessment of MYEG is that it will have no problem growing EPS at minimum 20% p.a. That is very conservative considering growth has been 30-50% for the past 6 years.

With a DCF valuation of 20% growth and PE of 20, I value MYEG at

2-year horizon: rm1.90/share
5-year horizon: rm3.30/share

Growth spurred by aggressive tailwinds in high population countries Philippines, Indonesia, and Bangladesh.

With gross margin at 50% consistently past few years, profits would need to tank 50% in order to make a loss. And risk of that happening is lower than 5% for me as government services is a sticky business and has high cost of change.

At current price of 1.12, this is hugely attractive for medium-long term investors with significant margin of safety of at least 50% in my view.

If merger happens, I see only positives. Increased market share, reduce pricing competition, increased profitability, maybe even lesser fighting with the authority given that AA is now carries a "national carrier". Huge, huge synergies in my opinion. Our national pride MAS gets to be saved, and would be managed by a world class airline operator - best for all parties.

Comment on AA needing a bailout is nonsense. Unless we reading different financial statements. AAX maybe, but not AAG.

Good that it's still maintain low profile.. the big institutional players are yet to invest this counter. Give more time for small fish like us to accumulate first. If you are an investor you would want your best ideas to remain undervalued long enough for you to accumulate!

TF, DM, are majority shareholders. Therefore it is their interest to maximizing shareholder (own) interest. My interest as shareholder therefore is always aligned to theirs (eventho I'm small).

I always buy companies that are:

- depressed sentiment amongst speculators
- in my view, wrongly/aggresively sold off
- business cashflows/revenues growing/steady/strong balance sheet
- several tailwinds (visit Msia2020, china/india middleclass, dominant market share, ecommerce growth, digitalization)
- owners/founders remain as majority shareholders

If we follow management guidance on outlook and strategy, this is merely a follow-through of AA's transformation from asset heavy into a capital light business model; paving way for growth of new lifestyle businesses. These new ventures is expected to bring in more than half AA's total revenue in 5 years time.

@Stella Goh - enjoyed reading your article. May I know in your Discounted Earnings Model valuation, what is the growth factor, expected and discount rate, and tenure that you used?

Danial, in my view - whether an investment is worth to you or not depends on many things such as your expected return and opportunity cost. What is worthy to another investor may not be to you.

For example, if I expect to earn 5-6% pa over 5 years, I probably view AirAsia as a good investment (considering fundamentals etc). But if I also have a higher opportunity cost elsewhere that can get 15% pa over the same period, AirAsia is maybe not worth time.

There are other factors as well such as your holding power/period and knowledge about this company, and experience as an investor. Maybe there are other more experienced investors that can add more.

By asking that question, I presume you a new to this. So my take - don't read rubbish comments here that's not backed up by anything (including mine). Plain waste of time. Read industry reports, read Airasia's annual reports. Do your own calculations/ risk vs reward analysis. Read extensively.

AA aspires to be the leader in travel and lifestyle. All the new startups actually fit into this vision. It's just a matter of how well each startup executes and contribute into the overall Airasia.com platform.

Why do you think Facebook acquired Instagram and Whatsapp? Why did Alibaba expands from ecommerce to cloud tech, fintech, entertainment, hospitality, streaming, etc? Or why Amazon created Web Services, PrimeTV, Echo, etc.

@Mabel because I'm not sure it's a a direct competition to western fast food chains that AirAsia (AA) claimed Santan to be (disrupting fastfood). My view, RM12 for nasilemak may get a pass in Klang Valley, but for the rest of Malaysia, nobody will pay RM12 for something that can be found for RM3-4. But I'd give it benefit of a doubt because AA also said Santan's roadmap is to expand beyond Asean - which has potential seeing how well chains like Paparich are doing in countries like UK/Aussie where there are significant number of asian-food lovers. As a shareholder, I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong on this and 5 years from now we have hundreds of Santan chains across the globe :)

But I'm intrigued by what @smalltimespeculator said on Santan possibly being a front for data collection. If so, Santan may be loss-making but in back-end, turbocharging AA's other businesses in terms of datamining personal data! This is exactly how a Google, Facebook, or Amazon would probably behave too - totally jives with AA's aspiration to be a tech company.

While I don't like AA's new eatery venture, I'm bullish on Teleport, BigPay, and AirAsia.com as new high growth new revenue streams.

Fully agree with Koyee that recent reported losses are just on paper, real cash machine is churning from within the business above. Next 5-10 years, these new ventures would provide stability to the core airline business's volatile earnings.

Such growth would have warranted 15x-20x earnings multiple in wallstreet - we're lucky to find such company in our own backyard. Long Airasia all the way.

Note to sophisticated investors: can find more sophisticated platforms to exchange opinions. Alot of useless and trashy comments like "strap seatbelt", "share price says all", and cursing, etc. I'm new here - but probably my last comment.

So much trash comments here that obviously never bother to understand the financial statements. If your investment reason is just based on "hopes and appetite" which are lost.. feel free to sell.

In fact, I hope there is a massive selloff so that the price go down further. So that those who truly taken the time to study the numbers and company can load up big time!