That's the theory lah. But the reality is that it's impossible in this case.

HY's NOSH is 300 million, with the major shareholder holding half.

Look at the number of CWs issued.

Hengyuan-C25 is a good example, 150 million issued, ratio of 4:1.

No way can an IB hold 37.5 million shares of HY.

And that's just for one CW.

---
Sslee

By right those IB that issue call warrant should hold the same amout of mother share. So that on call warrant maturity date what is a loss in call warrant is covered by gain in mother share and vice versa.

What ever in between the period before maturity date is just a book keeping marked to market unrealised loss/gain.

@probability

Thank you for very much for the explanation.

It is deeply appreciated!

@probability

Would you mind elaborating a bit on your statement? What do you mean by when the spread widens, the risk due to hedging will disappears??

I'm not experienced when it comes to hedging, and I appreciate that your comments in the forum have been quite insightful and detailed.
---
all i can say is Hengyuan not doing any creative accounting - its purely on the way the hedging is done.

When the spread widens, risk due to hedging will disappear

@Sslee

Thank you for clarifying. I missed that bit.

@Sslee

Where do you see the derivatives loss of RM230m? I don't see any mention of it in the latest quarterly report.

What's with the selldown?

I'm still trying to understand posts here that talk about how if oil prices skyrocket, Armada's price should go up.

Armada's revenue is not dependent on oil prices. If oil goes up to USD200 per barrel, its revenue is going to remain unchanged.

What it does need is oil prices to be at a minimum level so that it's clients (whose livelihoods are dependent on oil prices) can pay the bills.

As long as oil prices do not crash, Armada is in a good position.

Oil prices skyrocket, makes absolutely no bloody difference for the company.

Lol. Nicely put vcinvestor and CharlesT.

...right.

Statements like these make me wonder KYY, or whoever is writing on behalf of KYY even realise what they are saying.

Bursa's regulations state that a listed company should have a free float of 25% of its listed shares.

The controlling owner/major shareholder owns 63.25% of the listed shares.

The author of this blog is correct, to equity account AYS's earnings into their balance sheet, a company has to buy at least 20% of the listed shares.

63.25% + 20% = 83.25%.

Which means AYS will be in breach of Bursa's regulations and will have to untangle the mess. One of the two parties will have to sell down their stake to match the free float requirements.

Would it be someone who's just bought 20% of the listed shares? I don't think so.

Will it be the major shareholder? If AYS's prospects are rosy, do you honestly think that he'll be okay with selling down?

Or a final choice is to do another private placement. We don't know yet again if that's something the owner is keen on.

Seriously, whoever's writing for KYY, please at least learn to read up the facts on listing rules and regulations before spouting out nonesense.

@beinvested

It's 418m shares, not 280m. 280m is the market capitalisation.

So KYY sold the shares in Hiap Teck because, you know, Jalan Meru was flooded.

To be more accurate though, Jalan Meru is one of the main roads of Klang.

Hiap Teck's factory and HQ are based on Jalan Haji Abdul Manan, which is a turn off from Jalan Meru. (If you're heading north, you turn off to the right side).

Do you know what other factory is on Jalan Haji Abdul Manan? AYS Ventures.

That turn off where you take to the right side, take it to the left instead, AYS is there. AYS is roughly the same distance from Jalan Meru as Hiap Teck is on the other side.

Strangely enough, I don't see KYY saying he sold his AYS shares because Jalan Meru was flooded.

So KYY sold the shares in Hiap Teck because, you know, Jalan Meru was flooded.

To be more accurate though, Jalan Meru is one of the main roads of Klang.

Hiap Teck's factory and HQ are based on Jalan Haji Abdul Manan, which is a turn off from Jalan Meru. (If you're heading north, you turn off to the right side).

Do you know what other factory is on Jalan Haji Abdul Manan? AYS Ventures.

That turn off where you take to the right side, take it to the left instead, AYS is there. AYS is roughly the same distance from Jalan Meru as Hiap Teck is on the other side.

Strangely enough, I don't see KYY saying he sold his AYS shares because Jalan Meru was flooded.

So KYY sold the shares in Hiap Teck because, you know, Jalan Meru was flooded.

To be more accurate though, Jalan Meru is one of the main roads of Klang.

Hiap Teck's factory and HQ are based on Jalan Haji Abdul Manan, which is a turn off from Jalan Meru. (If you're heading north, you turn off to the right side).

Do you know what other factory is on Jalan Haji Abdul Manan? AYS Ventures.

That turn off where you take to the right side, take it to the left instead, AYS is there. AYS is roughly the same distance from Jalan Meru as Hiap Teck is on the other side.

Strangely enough, I don't see KYY saying he sold his AYS shares because Jalan Meru was flooded.

Reading KYY's comments, I just end up facepalming.

Don't get me wrong, I love AYS. It made me an absolute killing in terms of personal profits.

What I don't like is AYS has a much smaller capital base, so it's prone to ridiculous swings. Great for an arbitrage / short term trader. Not so good for long term trading. And I personally believe their upcoming quarter results will be weaker than the last one. The one after that though should be an improvement.

For those dissing Hiap Teck's latest results as being poorer than the previous quarter (4QFY21), you seem to be missing two fairly important points.

The previous quarter's basic EPS was 4.26 sen, from a profit of RM60.4m. Of this there was a profit contribution of RM49.45m (EPS of 3.48 sen) from Eastern Steel to the group. But you also have to take into account that part of the profit was due to the reversal of impairment loss on Eastern Steel amounting to RM66.15m.

This is strictly an accounting reversal. There's no cash involved.

Hiap Teck owned 35% of Eastern Steel at that time. Meaning that the reversal of impairment contributed RM23.15m (EPS of 1.63 sen) to the bottom line. This means Eastern Steel's actual operational profit contributed RM26.3m (EPS of 1.85 sen) to Hiap Teck.

Hiap Teck's wholly owned operations earned it only RM10.95m for that quarter.

For the most recent quarter (1QFY22), Hiap Teck reported a basic EPS of 4.11 sen, from a profit of RM71.1m.

Eastern Steel contributed RM23.27m (EPS of 1.34 sen) to Hiap Teck's bottomline. In absolute terms, it's only a marginal improvement over the previous quarter (RM23.15m to RM23.27m). I have to admit it's a little underwhelming. The notes to the account doesn't clarify if it was because of the drop in China steel prices or any particular reason.

In other words Hiap Teck's own operations earned RM47.83m for this quarter. That's pretty damned good overall.

Quarter on Quarter, Hiap Teck's wholly owned operations more than quadrupled their profits.

That's the first point to take into account. The main reason 4QFY21's stellar quarter was the reversal of impairment losses. Not operational.

Secondly, the reduction in EPS is also because the group's share base has increased substantially, from 4QFY21 where the company had a weighted average number of shares in issue of 1.418b to 1.731b.

That's 18% more shares for the purposes of EPS calculations. That's why RM71.1m in profit gives an EPS of 4.11. Whilst RM60.4m gives one of 4.26.

A good point to take into account is that the current number of shares issued is 1.736b. Excluding treasury shares, it gives the same 1.731b used for the recent quarter's calculation.

The bad part is that ESOS vested (but not exercised) amounts to 118.9m shares. So there's a possibility again of an increase in the number of shares increasing by up 6.8%, i.e. diluting EPS by that amount. On the flip side, if all that ESOS is exercised, it'll probably mean that the company's shares is flying.

Does this mean that Hiap Teck will do better for the next quarter? I do not know. All I know is that I'm impressed that from an operational perspective, as of the most recent quarter they're killing it.

I know Eastern Steel is going to be the crown jewel of the company, especially if they are able to scale up the size that they intend to go to, but I'm impressed with Hiap Teck's wholly owned operations thus far.

Downsides for Hiap Teck, I dislike the fact that they're probably going to dilute their stake in Eastern Steel over time, with Jian Long putting in additional capital. The amount of money they need is massive, and I don't think debt financing alone is going to cut it.

I'm not sure if Hiap Teck intends to go the rights issue route. It might be easier for them to let Jian Long take the lead whilst their stake gets reduced. I doubt they'll let it be reduced to below 20% though due to equity accounting rules. Below 20%, you can't add Eastern Steel's figures to the group's P&L.

I can't brain this comment:

You consider a company as being debt free if they have no long term debt.

Hiap Teck's debt is all short term (typically overdrafts) which they use for rolling capital in their operations.

PAT has nothing to do with cashflow. Or debt.

Current liabilities - loans & borrowings : RM519.8m
Trade Payables: RM44.4m
Total for this is RM564.2m

Current assets - Cash & equivalents: RM236.6m
Trade Receivables: RM339.9m
Inventories: RM404.6m
Total for this is RM981.1m

Is that healthy? Very. Does this make sense? Of course.

Unless you're saying that company should try to hold over RM564m in cash. Let's face it, with an overdraft running more than half a billion ringgit, Hiap Teck's annual finance costs is about RM14m.

You ask a businessman, would you rather take out 300m in cash and invest in other things (your business what it is lah), or would you prefer we retain the 300m in the company for you to save RM14m a year.

---
KingKong_Doll I was wondering ini betui o not.....
total debt = 520M
Total cash 254M
Difference = 266M

1Q PAT = 70M.
x 4 =280M.
2023 = cash free company???? Ada betul ka? kindergarten mathematics

Mr Ooi, do you have advice on what's a reasonable exit price to target?

What a rush today. 93 sen high so far.

Wonder how long before it reaches RM 1.00.

Wah, new high of 0.89.

Mr OTB, I think someone said that we wouldn't see AYS hitting 0.88 again in your lifetime. But for some reason, it didn't just hit 0.88 (again!) but surpassed it!

Thank you for highlighting this stock. I'm having a big smile on my face today.

Why oh why is Uncle Koon praising this stock.

I like LBALUM. Fundamentally I think it's awesome, and I'm expecting good things to happen for the rest of this year (and hopefully the next) for this counter.

But Uncle Koon praising it is like a death knell. He says go up, sure go down. He tell you sell, it'll fly straight up.

Everything is good for the counter except for this fact. Haiz.

Excellent write up as usual, Ben.

I'm impressed you managed to extract more information about Intco than I was able to. Trying to find the annual reports alone made me want to #headdesk.

One question on my mind, for the 2020 estimated figures you gave, why do you put in the assumption that overall production is going to operate at 80% capacity?

If demand still outweighs supply (albeit at not such a large spread), wouldn't natural market forces equilibrium mean that overall production would be higher than than to the point where it should meet or at least slightly exceed demand?

They still published the short selling trade details for 2 February. No further short of Top Glove occurred.

But definitely curious to know what the net short position is, since without that publication from Bursa, there's no other official way to know.

Huh, that's interesting Ben.

I went to the Bursa page and it's now showing that latest Net Short Position file shows it's for 29 January 2021. Very odd.

And what Umar Swift said is probably a slip of the tongue. It's already been published (assume it's official statements) that the RSS is capped at 4% overall.

Excellent analysis, Ben.

Would you be willing to provide me with your email so I correspond with you on some things that I was wondering about which I still haven't gotten any clarity on from the company itself?

It makes me thing there's a likelihood you might have some ideas unlike me just fumbling about.

Ben, it looks like AM Invest issued a revised edition of the report correcting the RM2.9 billion error for Top Glove.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/AmInvestResearch/2021-01-13-story-h1539321796-Glove_Earnings_will_peak_in_1H2021.jsp

Funnily the updated report makes no mention of that error.

@sutp
I was wondering why what he wrote gave me a sense of deja vu.

Geez, can't believe he'd stoop to plagiarising. Seriously KYY, have a bit of decency lah.

sutp, you did a good write up, and credit should be given to you.

@Albukhary

Your statement may stand true on how revenue is booked. I'm not sure if on the receipt of an order (to be deliver 400+ days away) whether a percentage of that order's revenue is booked in immediately, or whether 100% is booked only after receipt by the customer.

Assuming the ASP figure you used is the blended ASP (for all the different varieties of gloves that they sell), your calculations still missed out one thing.

That is the value of spot orders which was sold during that particular quarter. Spot orders having a much higher ASP, and are to be delivered within a 3 month window. How you'll calculate that as a portion of revenue is something I'm uncertain of.

"Supply will flood the market, outstripping demand."

MARGMA disagrees with you.

Between your opinion and MARGMA's, I think I'll take MARGMA's.

Something else to consider in your article here.

Top Glove has been aggressively buying back their shares, although aggressive is a somewhat arguable term - depending on which side of the fence you sit on. Their buyback is capped at RM70 million per day, although of course as outside investors, we do not know what the upper limit for the buyback price is set at before buybacks discontinue.

Now whilst our beloved Uncle Koon has of course condemned the buybacks as being counterproductive (since he views it as management trying to support the share price), whilst at the same time throwing in a plug praising his flavour of this time, Supermax - heh, I think there's one other view one should look at.

TG will be issuing a dividend of 50% of their net profit for the quarter. That's their stated policy.

What some investors may not realise is that the their cash flow is far more robust than net profit simply because of the advance payment (deposits/prepayments) paid by buyers, way in advance of delivery. As I understand it, spot order deposits are at around the 50% range, whilst longer term orders (extending up to the 650-660 day backlog) have a deposit of around the 20% range.

Deposits are not counted as profit. Profit is only recognised upon delivery of the goods. Thereafter deposits will then be categorised as revenue, along with any balance of payment.

It is possible for TG to declare the bulk of the prepayments as dividends. They can do so and recognise it as a special dividend issue.

Alternatively though, there is share buybacks. Consider this, there is still another 12 days of trading before the expected release of 1QFY21 results by Top Glove (tentatively set at 9 December).

If you do the math and assuming that TG continues to buyback RM70m worth of shares, up to the end of day of 8 December, and assuming the share price is bought back even at an assumed higher average price of RM8 per share, the amount of treasury shares would then exceed 2.5% of the company's total number of shares.

They could very easily issue a share dividend of 1 for 40 with that amount. Or a higher amount assuming the average buyback price is lower of course.

From the major shareholders perspective (inclusive of the founder), they get to boost their own shareholding by a minimum of 2.5%, without any outlay or activity needed on their own personal trading accounts.

The buybacks then aren't a way of supporting the share price alone, but for the benefit of shareholders (especially the major ones).

How big a dividend are we expecting for the upcoming quarter? Let's put a conservative 10 sen nett per share (high unlikely, since EPS should be MORE than 20 sen for the quarter). At 10 sen against the current RM7.29 price, that's a 1.37% yield for the QUARTER.

What about if a 1 for 40 share dividend is also issued? Using the current share price as a baseline, that's equivalent to another 18.225 sen dividend. Making the QUARTER'S payout equivalent to 3.87%. Pretty good, no?

Notice of Interest Sub. S-hldr (Section 137 of CA 2016)
TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD
Particulars of Substantial Securities Holder
Name EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD
Address Tingkat 19, Bangunan KWSP,
Jalan Raja Laut,
Kuala Lumpur
50350 Wilayah Persekutuan
Malaysia.
Company No. EPF ACT 1991
Nationality/Country of incorporation Malaysia
Descriptions (Class) Ordinary Shares
Name of registered holder Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd
Address of registered holder Level 42, Menara Citibank
165, Jalan Ampang
50450, Kuala Lumpur
Date interest acquired & no of securities acquired
Date interest acquired 18 Sep 2020
No of securities 13,695,800
Circumstances by reason of which Securities Holder has interest Acquisition and disposal of shares.
Nature of interest Direct Interest

Total no of securities after change
Direct (units)
410,699,290
Direct (%)
5.051
Indirect/deemed interest (units)
Indirect/deemed interest (%)
Date of notice 21 Sep 2020
Date notice received by Listed Issuer 23 Sep 2020


Remarks :
The total number of 410,699,290 Ordinary Shares are held through the following holders:
1) 2,509,800 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Employees Provident Fund Board;
2) 328,508,366 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident Fund Board;
3) 2,400,000 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (AMUNDI);
4) 5,502,600 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (AFFIN-HWG);
5) 2,900,000 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (RHB INV);
6) 6,660,000 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (AM INV);
7) 21,300,000 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (NOMURA);
8) 1,079,324 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (CIMB PRI);
9) 3,258,400 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (ARIM);
10) 9,755,300 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (TEMPLETON);
11) 4,692,000 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Employees Provident FD BD (ABERDEEN);
12) 4,482,700 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Emplys Prvnt FD BD (ASIANISLAMIC) IC;
13) 5,160,500 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Emplys Prvnt FD BD (RHBISLAMIC) IC;
14) 3,609,500 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Emplys Prvnt FD BD (F.TEMISLAMIC) IC;
15) 2,401,600 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Emplys Prvnt FD BD (ABERISLAMIC) IC;
16) 3,597,700 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Emplys Prvnt FD BD (BNP NAJMAH EQ) IC;
17) 429,100 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Emplys Prvnt FD BD (CPIAM EQ) IC; and
18) 2,452,400 Ordinary Shares are registered in the name of Citigroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd - Emplys Prvnt FD BD (NIAM EQ) IC.

This announcement is dated 23 September 2020.

Woo, earlier dividend by almost a month.

TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD

Entitlement subject Final Dividend
Entitlement description Single Tier Final Dividend of 8.5 sen per share
Ex-Date 19 Oct 2020
Entitlement date 20 Oct 2020
Entitlement time 5:00 PM
Financial Year End 31 Aug 2020
Period
Share transfer book & register of members will be to closed from (both dates inclusive) for the purpose of determining the entitlement
Payment Date 03 Nov 2020
a.Securities transferred into the Depositor's Securities Account before 4:30 pm in respect of transfers 20 Oct 2020
b.Securities deposited into the Depositor's Securities Account before 12:30 pm in respect of securities exempted from mandatory deposit
c. Securities bought on the Exchange on a cum entitlement basis according to the Rules of the Exchange.
Number of new shares/securities issued (units)
(If applicable)
Entitlement indicator Currency
Announced Currency Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Disbursed Currency Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Entitlement in Currency Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) 0.0850

Par Value (if applicable)
Registrar or Service Provider name, address, telephone no SECURITIES SERVICES (HOLDINGS) SDN BHD
Level 7, Menara Milenium
Jalan Damanlela, Pusat Bandar Damansara
Damansara Heights
50490 Kuala Lumpur
Wilayah Persekutuan
Malaysia
Tel:0320849000
Fax:0320949940


Remarks :
In line with the Boards decision to make a quarterly dividend payment for FY2021 and for better cash flow planning purpose, the Board has decided to bring forward the final dividend entitlement and payment dates, i.e. from 18 November 2020 to 20 October 2020 (Entitlement date) and from 1 December 2020 to 3 November 2020 (Payment date) respectively.

@jasonred79

Amazing now I'm an idiot for how I view EPS.

I take that back, I thought I was having a rational discourse.

Evidently I was wrong.

I will not be responding to you further. Bye.

@jasonred79

Wow. I was just looking to have a rational discourse. We may agree to disagree.

I don't think I was wasting your time though.

My apologies. I will not do so in the future.

@Herosan

My dear chap, you must be absolutely stupid. What the hell does EPS have to do with anything? EPS is just a measure used to quantify how much each share earns. It is also used to quantify the PE ratio and thus (hopefully) share price.

Telling me one company has a higher share price than another means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to me. I have to see how much it goes in respect of a PE ratio, which means looking at their share capitalisation.

And I know absolutely perfectly well the difference between OBM and OEM. And yes, I highlighted Supermax's margins are way better than TG.

Let's get back to the point of my original post. EPS you numbskull.

You were comparing the EPS for Supermax and Topglove and saying that because Supermax has a higher EPS, it's better than Topglove. Look again at my point.

Consider this my final post wasting my time with you if you can't understand the difference.

Imbecile.

Frankly, I'm actually hoping that the director Andy Lim might sell his entire stake in TG.

If he sells all 7,500 shares that he owns, I'm sure there will be a lot of comments here saying how the end is near, TG is going to be bankrupt, it's totally catching a falling knife, since a director sold his complete stake.

XD

@jasonred79

Again you seem to be applying a different set of standards on LGC just because he's an ED. Let's say he's just one level below the ED, and he sells his shares. He doesn't have to make a disclosure announcement. The world would have merrily gone on with no issue.

And if he's brilliant and should have sold at the peak, shouldn't he have cashed out at the RM29 / RM9.50 level?

He did not. Why? Because he's human and fallible.

There seems to be so much outrage that HOW DARE HE sell his shares around RM8. After all LWC says TG should overtake Maybank no, doesn't that mean he should wait till the RM10 range?

But let's look at it from his perspective.
His shares are way in the money.
He's made multiple times profit on that stake.
He's seen the share price swing a ridiculous extent, close to a low of RM6 up to around RM9.50 just in the last couple of weeks.
He's seen brickbat reporting on how TG is overvalued lah, after all Macquarie said the firm is only worth RM5! He can see the extreme ranges of analyst target pricing.

What's wrong with locking in his profit and at least enjoying that amount? That's about RM3 million that he can spend on himself, his family and enjoy. And more importantly, that's more than 3 times his total pay package for 2019.

Or is he supposed to wait until the end of time before he can cash out? After all, price targets set by analysts are very, very fallible. If he sells out at RM9.53 (Maybank), the would be some who would curse him to high heaven. If he sells out at RM10.68 (Kenanga), there will be some who call him a traitor.

Let's say he waits to sell at RM16.20 (Credit Suisse). I would assume that by the time we reach that price, other houses would have given new (higher) price targets. How DARE he sell at that price! He is scum!

Seriously man, it's like he will never be able to win. The only time he should sell his shares is either when he retires or dies.

If you're an employee, and you've got ESOS for 3 times your annual pay package, and you know you're still going to get more ESOS down the road, would you not sell some of your shares? After all a bird in the hand, is two in the bush.

And whilst he has sold 380,000 shares, he still owns another 557,800.
And he still has unexercised ESOS (which have been granted) for another 760,200.

There seems to be too much of a mountain of a molehill for an ED who is an _employee_ selling his shares.

If LWC had sold 100 million shares, that would be a different question. Journalists would be rushing to him asking why he cashed out.

@jasonred79

Here's a thought to ponder. By your rationale then, what price should he sell his shares?

A lot of the shares he owns, I would assume came through ESOS (exercised but NOT sold), which means they would be way way in the money with a very low entry cost. Let's assume something like RM2 for instance.

What he sold today gives him a little over RM2m in profit. Good, no?

The naysayers here keep going he should have held on! Not showing confidence! Etc etc.

But they all seem to forget one simple fact. He's an employee. A lot of his compensation is tied up to ESOS. A pay package of RM900k may seem a lot to some, but it's pretty pathetic overall if you really think about it vis a vis the size of the firm he's working in.

He continues to serve the firm, he knows he will get new ESOS grants. He's not an investor! He's an employee!

LWC's family for instance doesn't really need to sell the shares because the dividends that come in due to their sizeable stake is pretty huge. The upcoming dividend alone is RM237m for their entire stake.

By that measure, all those TG employees (not directors, but employees) who have been exercising and selling the holdings are also "traitors" lah, no? I know some of them who have exercised and sold, and they're just trying to enjoy the rewards of their labour. And yes, quite a number of them are of course bemoaning that they sold at too low a price.

One GM sold at RM15 (pre bonus), and her facial expression as she said, "I should have waited" was quite sadly entertaining. But how exactly was she supposed to know that the price would have hit a peak of almost RM29 (pre bonus) after all?

@Herosan

Fooyooh....

You're comparing EPS between two different companies with different number of listed shares.

Company A has 1 billion shares, made RM1 billion in profit. EPS is how much? RM1.

Company B has 100 shares, made RM1 billion in profit. EPS is how much? RM10 million.

EPS is absolutely pointless when compared between two firms.

You want to compare the two, either you compare profit margins, OR net profit.


Supermax hands down beats Top Glove in margins.
Top Glove hands down beats Supermax in absolute net profit.

Which would you invest in? Depends on your risk. Supermax has that growth factor. But I don't like the fact that the husband and wife owners have been convicted of insider trading and are only out of jail pending appeal! If their appeal (especially Stanley Thai) fails, what happens?

I don't think he'll be able to remote control manage the firm from inside a jail cell.

Supermax currently has two executive directors, the ultimate bosses. Both are based in US. Both are not focused on the glove aspects but rather on the company's contact lens division.


Me I'll stick with Top Glove. Margins aren't as great as Supermax, but hey, they are number 1 in terms of production (almost 3 times of Supermax). And more importantly, I don't see any of the EDs awaiting criminal trials / appeals. I sleep more soundly invested with TG.

Oh and LCG's balance of ESOS options, GRANTED but NOT exercised as yet:
760,200

All of them in the money.

@jasonred79

You're kidding right? TG hit a low of RM6.11 in the last two weeks. If it was a margin call, it wouldn't have been done at RM8.

Only an utter complete imbecile will say fire the director.

It's his shares, it's his choice what he wants to do with it. There's nothing to stop it.

Bodoh peh kambing.

For those who are condemning Lim Cheong Guan for selling his shares, do take note of two facts.

First, he is not a major shareholder of the company, nor is he related to LWC. He is an employee.

Second, do you know how much he earns as an ED for TG as a whole? In 2019, his total pay package came to RM 873,878. As a whole, that's pretty pathetic considering the size of the group.

He doesn't serve as a director on any other public listed firm. If he wants to enjoy some of his gain, why are you condemning him?

Lol. It's a sign when Uncle Koon starts to condemn share buybacks for TG when it takes the shine of his darling (for the moment) Supermax.

Never mind that share buybacks are completely legal, and in this case, I don't think it's really a device used to prop up the share price.

Why do I say that?

TG has 8,177,785,304 shares listed (that's 8.177 BILLION shares).

The total number of shares bought back is 44,221,800 shares.

That's slightly more than half of 1% of the total number of shares listed.

That total is roughly equivalent to daily volume traded for TG over the last 4 weeks.

Sure there's some euphoria for investors going, "Good mah! I should buy!"

But you must be joking if you assume that alone is maintaining the share price (in fact many people say that the share price is going DOWN mah. Look at the comments right here in this i3 forum where there are so many saying that this company is DOOOOOOOMED - LOL. There are even comments saying that it will go bankrupt!).

If TG's management assumes that the share price is on an upward trend, isn't a share buyback more logical than a dividend issue? 44 million shares cost RM310m in total.

Those who say it should have been converted into a dividend...how many of you actually took the time to calculate what that is in terms of an additional dividend payout?

I'll tell you for those who are too lazy (or more likely IMHO, too incompetent) to calculate. An additional 3.8 sen in terms of dividend. Not RM3.80, not 38 sen, but 3.8 sen. A fantastic amount for your dividend receipts, no?

I can't wait when the tables turn and Supermax doesn't become Uncle Koon's flavour of the moment. Then you'll see his amazing tai-chi statements on why some-other-stock is even better. If it changes to TG - although I doubt it - I'll be rolling on the floor laughing.

Any chance of uploading the full report for us to take a look? The image isn't very clear and can't quite make out fully.

Maybank IB Research - 18 September 2020

Supported by industry-wide
ASP hikes

Trading at 6x 12M forward P/E; maintain BUY

Strong 4QFY20 results were above expectations on higher-than-expected
ASPs. Earnings could still be stronger ahead on our estimated ASP hikes
of 48%/40% QoQ in 1Q/2QFY21E. Maintain our FY21-22E EPS forecasts and
introduce FY23E, which assumed for demand-supply to balance. Maintain
BUY and TP of MYR9.53 (9x CY21E P/E; -1SD of 5Y mean). Stock trades at
undemanding 12M fwd P/E of 6x and offers DY of 9% in FY21E.


Above expectations; final DPS of 8.5sen

4QFY8/20 PATMI of MYR1.29b (+3.7x QoQ, +16.1x YoY) brought FY20
PATMI to MYR1.87b (+5.1x YoY), accounting for 115%/132% of our and
street’s full-year forecasts respectively. A final DPS of 8.5sen was
declared, bringing full-year DPS to 11.83sen (51% profit payout). Its net
cash has swelled to MYR2.34b as at end-Aug 20 (from MYR284m as at
end-May 20) and we think a special dividend is possible in FY21E.


4QFY20: Blended ASP hike of 78% QoQ

Key takeaways from 4QFY20 results: (i) Revenue (+84% QoQ) was driven
by the higher blended ASP (+78% QoQ), with steep ASP hikes seen across
all types of gloves (nitrile: +103% QoQ, latex: +70-76%, vinyl: +69%,
surgical: +33%); (ii) Sales volume grew by just 5% QoQ as the group is
already running at full capacity. Sales volume to US was weaker (-7% YoY)
due to the import ban on two of its subsidiaries, which Top Glove expects
to be resolved by end-2020; (iii) EBITDA margin expanded to 54% (+25.7-
ppt QoQ) given the higher ASPs and higher operating leverage.


ASPs still on uptrend

By Nov 20, nitrile glove ASP would be 4.1x of Feb 20 and we note that all
players are still raising their ASPs, with indications of the ASP hikes to
sustain into 1H21. As for the latex powder free gloves, the ASP discount
to nitrile glove would widen to c.32% in Nov 20 (pre-COVID 19: 10%).
Coupled with the strong demand (due to shorter waiting time and
cheaper price than that of nitrile), we see room for further ASP hikes for
latex PF gloves. Our model has already assumed for higher ASPs until
3QFY21 and to decline from 4QFY21 on more new supply.

Share Price MYR 7.79
12m Price Target MYR 9.53 (+31%)
Previous Price Target MYR 9.53

Capacity. Top Glove’s first Vietnam factory is set to start production with 2 lines of c.2.4bn pieces gloves as early as next month. By running at full capacity and currently producing 85.5bn gloves p.a. in their 35 factories, with expected production of 104.5bn pieces p.a. by 2021 (Figure #3); we feel Top Glove will be able to sustain on catering for the increasing global glove demand (FY21: +25%, FY22: +15%, vs, normalised pre-Covid-19 levels of +10%).

Withhold release order update. Top Glove has been actively engaging with the U.S CBP (Custom and Border Protection) towards resolving the Withhold Release Order expeditiously. To date, Top Glove has made 2 remediation payment of RM4.4m each. Multiple independent audits have also been conducted. Submission of audit report has been done on 4th Sept and Top Glove is currently in discussion with U.S. CBP and hopes to resolve and uplift the ban by end of the month. Total estimated remediation payment is at RM53m.

Outlook. Top Glove will focus to expand capacity to strengthen its position to fulfil the increased expectation of global glove demand. The global glove demand is expected to increase post Covid-19, even when vaccine is readily available, by c.+15% (vs. normalized annual growth of c.+10%) thanks to increasing gloves users (i.e. non-medical users, F&B) due to the increasing hygiene standards. We expect a promising stronger FY21 to be driven by higher demand and ASPs and coupled with more spot orders. Spot orders currently are higher at c.30% of capacity (vs. 3QFY20: c.20%, vs. 2QFY20: 10%-15%). Lead time pre-Covid-19 of 30-40 days has significantly soared to the current average of 345 days (vs. 3QFY20: 292 days, vs. 2QFY20: 45 days). Top Glove also mentioned it is keen on being listed on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong in the next 6-9 months.

Forecast. We increased our FY21-22 earnings by +82% and +68% respectively to reflect in better revenue contribution, driven by further increases in our assumption on ASPs as demand is expected to remain robust into FY21.

Maintain BUY, TP: RM13.00. Post earnings adjustments, and rolling forward our earnings to FY21, our TP increases to RM13.00 (from RM10.44 – post bonus issue). Our TP is pegged to PE multiple of 16x (-1SD below 5-year mean), taking into consideration that FY21 will be a year of supernormal earnings. We maintain BUY call and maintain as our top sector pick. Share price weakness post results release offers an opportunity to accumulate, in our view.

Hong Leong Research - 18 September 2020
New peaks ahead

Top Glove’s FY20 core PATAMI of RM1.95bn (+410% YoY) was above ours and consensus expectations. Declared final dividend of 8.5 sen per share. FY20 revenue grew +51% YoY due to higher sales volumes (+17%) that was driven by the Covid-19 pandemic that brought in stellar demand and ASPs paired with improved cost efficiency. We remain optimistic on FY21 due to continuous high expectation of global glove demand (FY21: +25%) and rising ASPs. Raise FY21-22 forecasts by +82%/+68%. TP is increased from RM10.44 to RM13.00 (16x PE on FY21 EPS). Maintain BUY along with it as our top sector pick.

Above expectations. 4QFY20 revenue of RM3.11bn (+84.2% QoQ, +161.4% YoY) with core PATAMI of RM1.36b (+271.3% QoQ, +1,565% YoY) brought full year FY20 core PATAMI to RM1.95bn (+410.4% YoY). The result came in above ours and consensus expectations at 136% and 128% respectively. The upside deviation was due to higher-than-expected revenue contribution (ASP driven).

Dividend. Declared a final interim dividend of 8.5 sen p/share going on ex on the 17th Nov 2020, bringing FY20 dividend to 11.8 sen p/share (after bonus share) (FY19: 2.5 sen p/share, after bonus share).

QoQ. Revenue of RM3.11bn (+84.2%) was boosted mainly due to better sales volume (+5%) and improved ASPs (+78%). This was mainly contributed by Nitrile gloves (vol: +5%, ASP: +103%), Natural Rubber gloves (vol: +4%, ASP: +77%), and Vinyl gloves (vol: +90%, ASP: +64%). Surgical gloves volume declined (-15%) due to some line changes to examination gloves, but saw improvement in ASPs by +33%. EBITDA margin improved to 54.1% (from 28.2%) due to high utilisation rates that concurrently improved production cost efficiency. Nevertheless this was partly mitigated by increase raw material prices; NBR and NR prices (both +4%). Subsequently, core PATMI improved to RM1.36bn (+271.3%).

YoY. Revenue increased (+161.4%) thanks to growth in sales volume (+43%) and improved ASPs (+80%). This was backed by stronger demand due to Covid-19 pandemic that lifted all glove segments: Nitrile (vol: +43%, ASP: +114%), Natural Rubber (vol: +43%, ASP: +81%), Surgical (vol: +18%, ASP: +30%) and Vinyl (vol: +80%, ASP: +110%). EBITDA margin improved by 42.3 ppts (from 11.8%) on the back of greater efficiency from higher utilization (c.97% vs. 4QFY19: 80%-85%) as well as lower raw materials prices; NBR (-16%) and NR (-8%) prices. Overall core PATMI surged by +1,565%.

FY20. Revenue of RM7.24bn (+50.7%) showed a good leap on the back of improved sales volume (+17%) and ASP (+27%). The exceptional showing was driven by Covid-19 pandemic that brought in stellar demand which led to stronger contribution in Nitrile gloves (vol: +31%, ASP: +31%), Natural Rubber gloves (vol: +7%, ASP: +30%), and Surgical gloves (vol: +13%, ASP: +12%). Vinyl gloves volume declined (-13%) due to intense competition back in 1HFY20, as supply for vinyl increased. However it was mitigated with improvement in ASPs by +50% thanks to shortage of supply in 2HFY20. EBITDA margin improved by 21.4 ppts on the back of greater operational efficiencies alongside higher utilization rate (c.97% vs. FY19: 80%-85%); lower costs of direct labour, energy and production overheads. Raw material prices were fairly mixed; NBR prices decreased (-13.3%) while NR prices increased (+2.5%). All in core PATAMI came to RM1.95bn (+410.4%) with a marginally higher effective tax rate (FY20: 17% vs. FY19: 13%).

So if you annualise this latest quarter's EPS of 15.95 sen, you'll get 63.8 sen.

Last done was RM 8.71 before mid-day close.

Annualised forward PE for FYE21 assuming ZERO growth in earnings (ha-ha-ha, what's the possibility of that right?) is now at 13.65.

I can't wait to read the comments by the different research analysts on what their new consensus target price is.

Especially from Prem / Macquarie. Lol

@HaroldHuong

Consensus from analysts around end of August is that TG should show a net profit of close to RM1.0b for Q4.

TG pays out about 50% of its net profits as dividends.

Based on the number of shares outstanding, my best guess is that the dividend should be in the range of 6.0 - 6.6 sen per share.

So yesterday's buyback was at an average price of RM 6.69 per share.

Today's buyback average price is RM 7.45 per share.