Good. Then should all in. Kekeke.

RainT ,

Sorry what i meant was ..

Some people claim that this quarter profit dropped but EBITDA increased.

Was the increase Caused by MRFS16 ? Or did the EBITDA actually increased?


Also.. becareful with company that pays high but unsustainable dividend.

Quick question,

Did MRFS16 increase the EBITDA or did the EBITDA actually increased ?

Traditionally , airline profit margin is very very slim.. less than 5%, closer to 2% or less...... any disruption in operations,even small ones etc etc will greatly affect their bottom line.

we are at one of the longest economy expansion... airasia customer is travelling with borrowed money(most of the guest profile is average income earners, who uses credit card to travel and pay back later(not in full) ), airasia is also operating with borrowed money..... if the economy crashes, what will happen? hehehe anyone's guess,

TF is fast in selling the aircraft and leaseback... and pays special dividend...... he can foresee sxxx coming.

Right now, property market is starting to slide, those who made "paper" profit on property and travels extensively in the last few years on airasia with credit card is starting to feel the heat.

HK problem could be the trigger to airasia's long standing problem........ they have always tried to cover 10 holes with 7 plugs....... during the good times... no issues... as they can get loan easily and use the cash to roll. When bad times hits , that when the shit will come out from the holes and hit the ceilling.

Just An Opinion, The next plan is to build up AirAsia.com Sufficiently .. and possibly sell it off to bigger tech companies or merge with them.. and then cash out another few hundred million or billion.

No more special dividend? Maybe sell RedQ and leaseback , and then pay the "profits" back to share holder ? Lets dismantle the company part by part little by little.

TF pocketed more than 2 billion in hard CASH. Who cares about ikan bilis

"Report: Khazanah pushing for MAB-AirAsia X merger"
https://www.malaysiakini.com/news/493262

hmm? who is asking the government to bail his company out???>

MRFS16 doesnt affect the business fundamentals..... it affects how a business is presented to investors on paper.

A cash generating business is still a cash generating business.

While a lost making business will still be lost making regardless of MRFS2020 or MRFS9999.

U can have a look at LONBISC ... what happen ? Isnt the company showing good profits ?

supersaiyan3, if the house is an extra house, then its ok.

but the problem is, that is your only house, and you still need to live in it.

AirAsia business needs to utilise aircraft.

You owe Bank A 500k for your house.

So you go to Company B, hey i got a deal for you. Why not i sell you my house for 650k, and then i will sign a rental contract with you and rent it back for Rm3500 a month for 25 years ?

instantly, you have extra 150k "cash" after paying off the Bank for the loan.

With this 150k cash, you rent your current house for 43 months, or spend it on a new car, holiday, or do whatever you want.

The dividends came from "Refinancing" .

Like how you refinance your house. Your dividend is paid with the extra loan money. It's still a loan.

and of course you can package a rock as a diamond, but once the package is torn, it is still a rock, and it will never be a diamond.

but of course, he already paid off himself via dividends.

This Quarter FR is a confusing one. You have to read between the lines.

Nomather how he repackaged it, debt is still debt, cash is still cash, assets is still assets.

I believe is it deliberately made to confuse.

All the Best! investors!

As a matter of fact, AirAsia still will have to maintain all the planes at their own cost, when the lease expires, they have to return the aircraft to the lessor in it's original state without defects.

When there is any defect, they still have to repair all the aircraft at their own cost.

The higher lease cost already takes into account future depreciation cost. In other words, the lease that airasia is paying is inclusive of the Loan Installment+Depreciation Cost to the lessor.

IS AirAsia really free from Depreciation and Maintenance cost?

so, i hope you know what you are talking about.


risktransformer
Nothing wrong with leaseback costing more than servicing the loan. If AA own those airplanes then they not only have to service the loan, they also incur depreciation & maintenance cost.
05/08/2019 12:27 PM

The Sale and Leaseback deal is to merely "conceal" the loan.

If AirAsia Owns the plane, the loan has to be reflected inside it's balance sheet.

By Doing Sale and Leaseback, AirAsia "transferred" the debt to third party.
Are they debt free? Not really, as their operations require planes, and they have to lease(loan installments) them back.

Has AirAsia been paying consistent dividends since IPO? yes and no. the Dividends only started increasing after TF took a private placement @ RM1.80 per share . What a coincidence.

Moving forward, the operations cost will increase, as the leaseback will cost more than servicing the loan. They have not been transparent in a lot of fees, just read The Edge Financial Daily today.

Who is the real bully here, and who is being bullied?

MAHB or Airasia?

AirAsia in those days pushed MAHB for LCCT(now unused). And then threatened to build an airport in LABU, and in the end government have to give in and spent unnecessarily to build KLIA2

After spending so much on KLIA2, now AirAsia is denying MAHB the right to recoup the cost in building the Terminal by not paying the taxes.....

you always want to do business with people's money? you owe people money, you pay la.

who is the real bully?

Why not you guys push the price up? Let the IB know that "trying to push down" is useless ?

AirAsia is not a small cap company.

It's not easy for fund manager / big shark to "push" down or up the prices. With a company that size.. market dynamics prevail.

If the price did not shoot up to RM 3.50 or RM4.00 as claimed by some people , maybe there is just no demand for it and people think that this is a fair price .... maybe big shark or fund didnt do anything at all.


To push down the price , big sharks have to unload massive amount of stocks to "push" the price down. If they think that the price is worth RM4.00 , why should they unload massive amount now to push to RM 2.00 and repurchase again ?

Maybe its just nobody wants the stock.

AirAsia has 3,341,000,000 number of shares.
From 2017-2019, the Company used up RM 5946.98mil of cash to pay RM1.78 of dividend, an average of RM 2973.49mil per year(just to pay the dividends).

If he were to continue paying 0.24cents of interim dividend per financial year, It would cost airasia RM 801.84 million a year.

Can he generate that much free cash flow from operations alone?

How much dividend can he pay in 2020 after he stripped the company bare in 2019?

Bear in mind that, the Money from the Special Dividends weren't generated from the operations/business.
They merely sold 100 of their aircraft to generate the money to distribute dividends.

Tomorrow, when you go to pasar pagi, and start hearing Aunties and Makciks talking about how cheap airasia share is and the special dividend of RM0.90 , you may need to consider exiting.

Being a major shareholder and the face of airasia, he cannot cash out when the share is trading at above rm3. Then retail investors will lose confidence.

So how else to get money while keeping the share price stable ? Pay dividend, lots of it


The Private placement was valued at rm1.01billion

They both collectively have 1,079,085,082 shares in AAGB. With the recent dividends..

They would have pocketed RM1,532,300,816.44 ( 0.40 +0.12 +0.90)

Or in short RM1.532 billion

The Biggest beneficiary of the 2 times special dividend would be Din and TF. They took a massive loan to take up a private placement.

If they dont sell assets and pay themself back , how to tahan ? Cash out first to save themself, the rest think later.

We take 500k loan also cannot tahan.
Their loan is hundreds of millions..

of course, they also gained some interests from the amount of money not paid to MAHB.

Last Quarter Results, almost RM400million in losses.

Coincidentally, they also entered into a sales and leaseback agreement to attempt to generate more cash to pay dividends and maybe to sustain operations long enough until ...... ?

One of the possible scenario. of course Tony thinks differently compared to normal people like us airline business is complex, and how would normal people like us can understand ?

AirAsia sold their Assets and leaseback .
________________________________________
Your bought a house for RM500k.
You live in it and pay installment monthly RM2500.

Your friend say your debt is too high. So you think of ways to reduce your debt.

You sold your house at 550k to Investor ZZZ, and rents it back from him at a higher price than your monthly installment, RM 3000
(because investor ZZZ will only buy from you if can get some positive cashflow or returns from investing in your house )

So now, you have RM50k cash in your hand and "No Debt". But you are renting from Investor ZZZ at a price higher than your installment, in the long run, you lose or you gain?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/wall-street-ex-trader-swaps-arbitrage-for-airasia-s-ambitions

RM4 or RM0.40 ....

judge yourself.

His answer did not clear the air, merely just asking people to believe him.


Just Like asking a car salesman, is you car good? Any complaints?

When the airline was still expanding furiously, whatever future ticket sales can be recorded as profit ma, but they will only incur the cost when the flight takes off in future.

GMT report is not publicly available yet ... So how come its effect is so huge??

USD drop .. forex losses can be offset with lower jet fuel price. Moreover, forex losses is only on paper.

But , can they also tahan the reduce in demand due to our weakening ringgit?
1. AirAsia cost are mostly in USD
2. Revenue are mostly in Ringgit.
3. Weaker ringgit, rakyat no money, you and me still want to travel ka to singapore, to hong kong , to china? Or just drive to malacca eat satay celup ? Or portdickson? Ringgit is losing its value against those currency ... Plus with gst in force.. people are more concious about theit spending... Travelling overseas is a luxury if you can afford it, not a neccesity...
4. Expansion has slowed down a lot due to overcapacity, expansion slow = less future money(future ticket sales) to roll and play around.
5. Report from GMT
6. Examine the last quarter report please... I have already mentioned .. airasia will be in the red if it did not dispose "Expedia" , and dodgy "OTHER" income which cannot be traced.
7. Unrealistic staff cost- talk to their staffs before your next flight.

Exercise your own judgement.

Market analyst from banks have to becareful with what they write ......

Sorry for the typo error, im typing from my phone

Their Indonesian Associate and Philipines Associate have never been profitable............ You guys are kidding yourself if you say they are.....
TF has been trying to hard in indonesia.. but still cannot touch Lion Air.
and also, they reason they are still surviving is because their staff cost is unrealistic... They have consistently pay below market rate , if you have time to speak to any staff when you checkin for your next flight, ask them about their timetable .. how much they get ... What happens if they fall sick...

be brave with your money !!

Maybank IB pakai air liur, you pakai duit sendiri

airasia share price hit rm4 is purely speculation, not fundamentals

pay attention to the "Other Income" ..

Yeap, without all those disposal gains, Airasia q1 result will be disastrous. look at revenue vs cost. if EPF also sell, it will trigger panic sell among small trader

EPF keep acquiring does not mean anything.

EPF have a lot of other shares. Some are making money, some are losing.

Anyway, the money is still yours, how you use it is up to you.

exercise your own judgement if you dont want to get burnt. many people here trying to push the stock so they can exit.

just examine the latest quarter financial results and read in between the line. the are actually in the red already.. and will continue to lose more money if ringgit continue to decline.

their revenue y-o-y has dropped. cost is increasing. aircraft is ageing requiring more maintenance. all the parts are in USD .

disposal of stake in expedia for a gain of 350million, while the unrealised forex loss is also 350million? mysterious income of 60million and 100 million from "others" and "associates"?

read between the lines and exercise your own judgement.

when rakyat has no money, would you still travel overseas? or worry about ur loans or installments

Dear investors,

Do not get carried away with the dropping fuel price. Do not compare this with other airlines.
AirAsia has a lot of debts which is in USD. The weakeaning nof Ringgit may result in AirAsia incurring more finance charges. The savings in operational cost( cheap fuel) may not be enough to offset this.

If you look at the latest financial report, They only made about 70-80 mil profit from operations. the remaining 2xx mil profit is actually(on paper only la) from the strengthening of ringgit few months ago.(when the ringgit is around 3.1-3.2 per USD)

Come next quarter, no doubt you will see an increase in operational profit, But at the same time, because of weaker ringgit , they will also incur a higher finance charges( interests), higher maintenance costs, forex lose etc etc......