Indonesia Dec palm oil output falls to nine-month low -Reuters survey

* Indonesia's Dec CPO output seen at 2.457 mln T
* Indonesia CPO exports seen at 2.675 mln T for Dec

By Michael Taylor
JAKARTA, Jan 18 Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO)
output slipped to a nine-month low in December, a Reuters survey
showed, as Southeast Asia's monsoon season curtailed operations
in the world's two biggest producers of the edible oil.
Indonesia's CPO output in December was 2.457 million tonnes,
down 12 percent from 2.8 million tonnes in November and the
lowest since March, according to the median estimate in a survey
of three industry officials and one plantation company.
Falling output and rising exports may support benchmark palm
prices, which climbed nearly 10 percent in 2015 and
are currently trading near 2,480 ringgit ($564) a tonne.

"Typically, December production will come off because it is
a low production month," said plantations analyst Ivy Ng at CIMB
Research. "It is quite similar to what Malaysia has
experienced."
Last week, data from rival palm grower Malaysia showed that
CPO output there fell by 15 percent in December from the
previous month.
Southeast Asia's peak palm oil output usually runs over
August to September, with production in the world's top producer
Indonesia and No.2 producer Malaysia typically easing as the
region heads into its wet season in November.
The Reuters survey pegged Indonesia's CPO exports for
December at 2.675 million tonnes, up 28 percent from November
and highest since at least August 2014, when the survey began.
Chinese buying ahead of the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday
may have boosted palm buying in December, said Ng, adding that
many Indonesian sellers have been aggressive in selling palm
products at a discount to Malaysia in recent weeks.
According to the survey, Indonesian palm stocks were at
2.425 million tonnes in December, a level not seen since
February and down from 2.950 million tonnes in November.
Indonesia's domestic consumption of the tropical oil was
estimated in a range between 550,000 tonnes and 767,000 tonnes.
The latest monthly data published by the Indonesian Palm Oil
Association (GAPKI) showed November exports at 2.39 million
tonnes. GAPKI data for December is yet to be released.

The Reuters survey for December comprises contributions from
GAPKI, the Indonesian Palm Oil Board, the Indonesian Vegetable
Oil Industry Association and Sinar Mas Agro Resources &
Technology, one of the largest listed palm oil
companies.
Below is a table of median Reuters CPO survey results and
GAPKI palm and palm kernel oil export data for 2014/15 (in
million tonnes).

Month Output Exports Inventories GAPKI export data

December 2.457 2.675 2.425 ---
November 2.800 2.093 2.950 2.39
October 3.010 2.213 3.025 2.61
September 3.100 2.235 3.050 2.34
August 3.198 1.885 3.392 2.10
July 2.856 1.920 3.200 2.09
June 2.800 2.400 3.046 2.27
May 2.774 2.150 2.540 2.22
April 2.662 2.046 2.602 2.25
March 2.397 1.800 2.667 2.03
February 2.049 1.750 2.425 1.79
January 2.056 1.658 2.413 1.81
----------------------------------------------------
December 2.165 1.837 2.325 1.97
November 2.306 2.100 2.225 2.26
October 2.385 1.820 2.378 2.47
September 2.675 1.750 2.500 1.70
August 2.750 1.720 2.575 1.72

($1 = 4.3980 ringgit)


(Reporting by Michael Taylor; Editing by Tom Hogue)

Total production for log should be higher for 2Q2016 compare to 1q2016. Product of CPO should be almost the same as 1q2016,or slightly less. Since the price for log and cpo is higher for 2q2016, EPS should be higher if not mistaken. Compare to 2q2015, with the eps of -0.51sen, there should be about few 100% improvement.

Log FFB CPO PK
Jan-14 52035 56975 4509 718
Feb-14 67895 41024 3131 441
Mar-14 84651 53454 5378 744
3QSum14 204581 151453 13018 1903
Apr-14 102720 53321 5147 807
May-14 97867 61700 6304 860
Jun-14 76896 52616 4633 631
4QSum14 277483 167637 16084 2298
Jul-14 57493 75835 8049 1222
Aug-14 85473 91056 9938 1817
Sep-14 107302 84484 9456 1645
1QSum15 250268 251375 27443 4684
Oct-14 109040 75487 8104 1259
Nov-14 79379 61436 6553 1229
Dec-14 84118 45749 5184 866
2QSum15 272537 182672 19841 3354
Jan-15 72655 35336 3522 551
Feb-15 48962 34058 3927 610
Mar-15 49981 43510 5333 767
3QSum15 171598 112904 12782 1928
Apr-15 73763 58256 7336 1011
May-15 64896 67648 7830 1097
Jun-15 51689 67159 6411 1012
4QSum15 190348 193063 21577 3120
Jul-15 55077 81659 8576 1434
Aug-15 77218 95968 11341 1806
Sep-15 62164 96925 12063 1924
1QSum16 194459 274552 31980 5164
Oct-15 70735 95599 12911 1974
Nov-15 85053 73039 8839 1467
Dec-15
2QSum16 155788 168638 21750 3441

GOOD LUCK to all. At least drop 10% tomorrow.

Someone purposely push down the price ......

if epf selling at the rate now about 5000lot per days, will take about 70 days to clear all their stock......if heavy volume every days, even faster......

for prlexus normally is opposite....

magni is safer but because of the size the growth is slower, prolexus is smaller in size hence growth is faster....for the last five years ,every year EPS increase by about 50% each years.....

I think most likely is because increase in workers compare to last year...

Hopefully not much panic selling, business increase , but profit down just because of forex .....

Due to unrealized loss on foreign exchange RM1.69m, eps become 3 cents, if not eps should be 5.28cents. Really bad luck......again......last time is SOS, this time forex.....

这个好。。。。。like +1

By the way, I comment b4 it go up, not after that, ok?

I buy and keep, so why should I show every time it go up and down. At least I dare to share And give reason why it will go up. U also can give opposite opinion but at lease show us the reason behind that.

saltedfish u are very funny, when lat down a bit, u loud like thunder but up a lot just quite like a mouse.....please give some ta or FA analysis when give +ve or -ve commment.

http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2146&pid=3165602&page=109&extra=#pid3165602

Latitue-一只超级大黑马
为何我会这样说呢？当我看回他的财报表，才发现到他的现金流不是很美，是简直美到爆表了。为何这样说呢？ 你重新看回2012-2013年度的FCF/NET PROFIT 是惊人的200%以上，意思是说他的现金是以EPS的200%再囤积着，或者说每一元的EPS能使到他的现金增加2元。为何会这样呢？这是因为家私业不是一个高capex行业除了开新厂。Liihen 及 Homeriz，capex也是不高的。 而homeriz近两年也是高FCF/NET PROFIT ratio的，他也有差不多120%。 另外一个高FCF/NET PROFIT的原因是latitue每年有差不多1千6百多万的depreciation，这使到他的现金以很惊人的速度再囤积着。何况他现在手头上已经是每股现金RM1.51了。 到2Q2014，他的FCF/NET PROFIT ratio还是有113%的。只要他每年能有EPS=RM0.40，要是FCF/NET PROFIT 能维持100-200%，就是说每股RM0.40-RM0.80，你说给高股息的日子还会远吗？除了给高股息，或者特别股息，我想这些现钱不可能一直屯着吧。 为何Homeriz或者nestle能给高股息呢？最主要的原因是他们的FCF/NET PROFIT很高，所以nestle能给差不多100%的DIVpayout ratio，而他近年最高的FCF/NET PROFIT才133%，还比不上latitude的200%。Homertiz给的DIVpayout ratio 是40-50% 而latitue现在才给25-30%。 只要他要,它是可以开始给高息的，而当他给高股息，latitude就应该会重估了，要是跟homeriz一样的话，他的PE都要10-11倍的。
对以每年赚RM0.40，我认为是可以做到的。 我算过今年1Q,2Q的Result， 要是越南的业绩是100%under母公司，EPS for 1Q=RM0.19， 2Q=RM0.25 而不是现在的RM0.15及RM0.19. 而第3季越南公司是100%under 母公司的，业绩我相信不会太差的。何况从2013 6月开始，他的越南厂的Production Capacity是已经增加了每月1百万美金以上的。
所以，latitue成为另一只黑马的机会是很大的，30大股东手头上的票是77%，只有23%的票是在散户手上，要他上应该是很快的。So,同志们，还等什么，星期一一开市马上冲进去，有多少买多少，那么很快就会到荷兰了 。买卖自负，Happy investing

不过量真的很少。。。。。

slow already. should sell at rm2.20.....

lost my hope in maybulk already. Even today the best event in years of listing Posh unable to push the price up plus the board told that drybulk segment will not profit in next 2 years with the DBI so low . I sold all my holding in maybulk with profit 10+% after keep for 6 months. Good luck to all who still on board. Bye.

when is posh listed?

会，马股民看到红股就追的。。。哈哈

有很大的机会。。。

Now really hard to said.

The exchange rate from 1/2014-3/2014 is good.

buyer and seller most likely are the same person, possible to get enough attention to attract other to buy or to sell, just guessing. Today maybe try to get back the share they sell yesterday at cheaper price to prepare for the final push up.

maybulk的量很假，很像是自己买，自己卖的。。。。

昨天买的contra kaki今天给庄这样洗法死到完。。。。

算法有点错，改正过的算法在此。。。。http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2146&extra=page%3D2&page=103，　改过的算法　EPS更高。。。。

Naughtily girl do u have any better way to estimate next q result? For me, it just a guessing game, no harm trying.

买卖自负。

对，除了这样算，真的想不到用什么方法来猜下个Q的业绩了。不过us的Housing sales 不错，exchange rate is ok, and Vietnam production capacity increase a lot ,所以下个Q的Result应该不会差到那里去。

趁着有时间，我就随便算算大概latitue 3Q成绩会几差。。。。由以越南成绩差不多主导了他的Profit，我只拿越南的成绩。。。。
看过去几年，他的业绩3q比2q差的。。。2011 掉35%， 2012掉24.7%， 2013掉13%。。。。我就拿今年掉个20%。。。。
So revenue = 147705 -20% =118164 Profit margin 可以看到当sales越多，Profit margin 就越高， 因为有的开销是固定的。 看回过去的Revenue VS Profit Margin。。。。118164 的 margin 应该有 13% ， Profit = 15361 .。。不过不要忘了这季是100% 不是过往77.6% 的share holding （2月开始，so 只有2个月）。。。 so Profit= [（15361/77.6 %）-15361]x 2/3+15361 =18317.。。。24877=19sen per share 。。。。
18317 = 14sen per share。。。。不会太差呱。。。。。要是最后一季又有个RM0.20profit。。。。全年就不得了了。。。。
So EPS = 14 + 19 + 14 + 20 = 67sen 通常它会给25% 的Div ， So Div = 67 X25% =16.75sen 要是有个PE8 或 10就不得了了。。。。

http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2146&page=103

Period VT/ Rev VT/PBT Profit % Dif 2/3Q %
1Q2011 103189 12055 11.68
2Q2011 103230 12708 12.31
3Q2011 66991 6023 8.99 35.11
4Q2011 77638 6900 8.89
1Q2012 90127 5690 6.31
2Q2012 94405 7944 8.41
3Q2012 71066 1853 2.61 24.72
4Q2012 100967 11710 11.60
1Q2013 106261 11172 10.51
2Q2013 91601 10644 11.62
3Q2013 79470 8428 10.61 13.24
4Q2013 96056 12173 12.67
1Q2014 142160 19992 14.06
2Q2014 147705 24877 16.84

they just guessing ,nothing to support,don't worry....This is good company ....patient will pay.

Will go up very soon....selling pressure is weak now......

哈，300股就把它推上RM2.81。。。厉害。。。。

20%=3.1Busd x20%=0.62Busd=RM 2B.....

POSH is coming....

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1583281

as expected...if this is true....

1MDB tipped to win Track 3B
By Francis Fernandes
Published: 2014/01/21


KUALA LUMPUR: 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) is expected to emerge as the surprise winner to build a 2,000-megawatt greenfield coal-fired plant, better known as Track 3B, in Peninsular Malaysia, sources said.

They said the Energy Commission (EC) is expected to make an announcement soon on the winner of the project, which will cost just under RM12 billion.

Under the plan, the greenfield power plant will be commissioned in stages through October 2018 and April 2019.

Up until last week, YTL Power International Bhd was seen as the favourite to secure the deal.

AmResearch Sdn Bhd, in a report early this month, noted that based on the evaluation report submitted to the EC last month, YTL was the preferred bidder, given that its notional adjusted tariff of 25.2 sen/kilowatt hour (kWh) was the lowest bid.

YTL had proposed for the plant to be built in Tanjung Tohor, Johor, together with SIPP Power Sdn Bhd.

Business Times was told that power from the greenfield plant is mostly to be used in the Klang Valley.

As such, even though on paper YTL has the lowest bid, a plant in the southern most part of Peninsular Malaysia may have to burn additional coal to fire up the Klang Valley.

In a report last year, RHB Reseach had pointed out that apart from cost, other considerations will include the location of the power plant.

The firm also said that at 25 to 28 sen per kWh, the internal rate of return for Track 3B is between eight per cent and 11 per cent.

A victory for 1MDB will be timely as it seeks to sell shares to help ease debts, perched at RM31 billion, Bloomberg estimated.

Read more: 1MDB tipped to win Track 3B http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/diby/Article/#ixzz2r0gBFwjl

Ｂｕｔ　ｅｖｅｎ　ｗｉｔｈｏｕｔ　ｔｈｅ　ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ，　ｗｉｔｈ　ｓｈａｒｅ　ｂｕｙ　ｂａｃｋ　Ｉ　ｔｈｉｎｋ　ｔｈｅ　ｓｈａｒｅ　ｐｒｉｃｅ　ｗｏｎ＇ｔ　ｄｒｏｐ　ｓｏ　ｍｕｃｈ．．．．．．．．．

ｗｈｙ　ｔｏｄａｙ　ｎｏ　ｎｅｗｓ　ｏｎｅ？？？？？

Ｉ　ｂｏｕｇｈｔ　ａｔ　５３　ｓｅｌｌ　ａｔ　７３，　ｂｕｙ　ｂａｃｋ　ａｔ　６９.．．．．．ｄｏｎ＇ｔ　ｋｎｏｗ　ｔｈｉｓ　ｔｉｍｅ　ｃａｎ　ｍａｋｅ　ｐｒｏｆｉｔ　ｏｒ　ｎｏｔ．．．．．

EC to pick power plant bid winner tomorrow

More

THE winner of a multi-billion ringgit power plant contract will be known as early as tomorrow, with YTL Power International Bhd tipped to secure the project coded Track 3B.

The Energy Commission (EC) is expected to decide on the winning bid tomorrow, but the recipient's identity may only be made public next week, according to people familiar with the matter.

YTL Power is said to be the potential recipient to build the 2,000 megawatt (MW) power plant, but industry observers have cast doubt on the group's bid due to compliance issues.

YTL Power's reported bid of 25.12 sen per kilowatt hour (kWh) is the lowest in the tender called by the EC. Competing bidders include heavyweights 1Malaysia Development Bhd, Malakoff Corp Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd.

The sources, however, noted that the EC would also have to take into account the technical parameters of the bids to ensure that the commission's standard is met.

Among other criteria, they noted that the bidders had to use equipment suppliers and contractors which complied with the EC's requirements.

It had been previously reported that YTL Power did not meet the EC's requirement that the Track 3B power plant must be based on proven ultra supercritical (USC) or supercritical (SC) technology.

"A proven track record includes that any unit used in the power plant must be of similar design and technology to five units already in use, each having an output capacity of at least 700MW and in successful operation for three years or more," a source said.

The sources noted that there were a limited number of boiler manufacturers with a strong track record in the USC category, which requires years of experience in utilising the materials and manufacturing techniques that are used in these higher temperature boilers.

The key contractors with sufficient experience are understood to include the Japanese and European boiler suppliers, with the South Koreans only recently started developing capability in this category.

A leading Korean manufacturer was reported to have recently announced that it had developed its first demonstration plant for the 1000MW category, industry observers noted.

"It is only a prototype and therefore, is not in compliance with the EC's request for proposal," the source said.

The sources pointed that having a low bid does not mean low cost. YTL Power's proposed plant site in Tanjong Tohor in Johor is two to three times further away from the major load centre if compared to other proposed sites in Selangor, Negri Sembilan and southern Perak, they said.

This means that the energy loss due to the length of the transmission line and the additional cost incurred by TNB to upgrade the transmission network will have to be taken into account in the evaluation.

They said although YTL had reportedly offered 25.12 sen per kWh, the true cost could be much higher.

Francis Yeoh's YTL frontrunner to win RM11 BIL power plant deal?

YTL Power International Bhd is the front-runner to win a multi-billion ringgit contract to build a power plant, AmResearch said in a report.

AmResearch advises investors to hold YTL shares, which the research firm values at RM1.86 apiece, as it expects the Energy Commission to announce the winning bidder by next Monday.

"The plant, potentially costing RM11 billion, is scheduled to commence operations in stages in October 2018 and April 2019," it said.

YTL is seen as the preferred bidder, given that its notional adjusted tariff of 25.2 sen/kWh was the lowest bid.

YTL had proposed for the project to be built in Tanjung Tohor, Johor, together with SIPP Power Sdn Bhd, AmResearch said.

The research house also noted that if YTL wins the project, as expected, incremental earnings alone could come in at RM260 million, based on YTL's 60 per cent ownership in the venture. BT

Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=213432:francis-yeohs-ytl-frontrunner-to-win-rm11-bil-power-plant-deal?&Itemid=3#ixzz2qLV2AJyx
Follow us: @MsiaChronicle on Twitter

Funny, how come today they don't want to take up 1.90......Emmmmmm

吉隆坡11日訊）市場消息指出，楊忠禮電力（YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建計劃組）有可能在即將公佈的3B計劃競標結果中，成功競獲價值110億令吉的2千兆瓦煤炭發電廠。


《The Edge》英文財經週報取獲的競標評估報告顯示，楊忠禮電力的每公瓦電力25.23仙出價，為眾多競爭者中的最低價，因此有關單位早在上月向能源委員會（EC）推薦讓楊忠禮電力成最終贏家。

國能出價最高“1個大馬發展有限公司（1MDB）的每公瓦25.65仙出價，則是第二低的出價，MMC機構（MMCCORP，2194，主板貿服組）旗下馬拉科夫（Malakoff）的26.74仙出價排在第三，國家能源（TENAGA,5347,主板貿服組）則是出價最高的競標者，每公瓦出價為28.67仙。”

無論如何，考量其他因素，如發電廠設立地點，出價最低的楊忠禮電力卻未必是最終贏家，各條件齊全的1個大馬發展有限公司，亦是強而有力的競爭者。

領域消息透露，能源委員會將在本週進行會議，以選出最終贏家，相關結果預料將於本月20日公佈。（星洲日報／財經）