昨天买的contra kaki今天给庄这样洗法死到完。。。。

算法有点错，改正过的算法在此。。。。http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2146&extra=page%3D2&page=103，　改过的算法　EPS更高。。。。

Naughtily girl do u have any better way to estimate next q result? For me, it just a guessing game, no harm trying.

买卖自负。

对，除了这样算，真的想不到用什么方法来猜下个Q的业绩了。不过us的Housing sales 不错，exchange rate is ok, and Vietnam production capacity increase a lot ,所以下个Q的Result应该不会差到那里去。

趁着有时间，我就随便算算大概latitue 3Q成绩会几差。。。。由以越南成绩差不多主导了他的Profit，我只拿越南的成绩。。。。
看过去几年，他的业绩3q比2q差的。。。2011 掉35%， 2012掉24.7%， 2013掉13%。。。。我就拿今年掉个20%。。。。
So revenue = 147705 -20% =118164 Profit margin 可以看到当sales越多，Profit margin 就越高， 因为有的开销是固定的。 看回过去的Revenue VS Profit Margin。。。。118164 的 margin 应该有 13% ， Profit = 15361 .。。不过不要忘了这季是100% 不是过往77.6% 的share holding （2月开始，so 只有2个月）。。。 so Profit= [（15361/77.6 %）-15361]x 2/3+15361 =18317.。。。24877=19sen per share 。。。。
18317 = 14sen per share。。。。不会太差呱。。。。。要是最后一季又有个RM0.20profit。。。。全年就不得了了。。。。
So EPS = 14 + 19 + 14 + 20 = 67sen 通常它会给25% 的Div ， So Div = 67 X25% =16.75sen 要是有个PE8 或 10就不得了了。。。。

http://www.investalks.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=2146&page=103

Period VT/ Rev VT/PBT Profit % Dif 2/3Q %
1Q2011 103189 12055 11.68
2Q2011 103230 12708 12.31
3Q2011 66991 6023 8.99 35.11
4Q2011 77638 6900 8.89
1Q2012 90127 5690 6.31
2Q2012 94405 7944 8.41
3Q2012 71066 1853 2.61 24.72
4Q2012 100967 11710 11.60
1Q2013 106261 11172 10.51
2Q2013 91601 10644 11.62
3Q2013 79470 8428 10.61 13.24
4Q2013 96056 12173 12.67
1Q2014 142160 19992 14.06
2Q2014 147705 24877 16.84

they just guessing ,nothing to support,don't worry....This is good company ....patient will pay.

Will go up very soon....selling pressure is weak now......

哈，300股就把它推上RM2.81。。。厉害。。。。

20%=3.1Busd x20%=0.62Busd=RM 2B.....

POSH is coming....

http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1583281

as expected...if this is true....

1MDB tipped to win Track 3B
By Francis Fernandes
Published: 2014/01/21


KUALA LUMPUR: 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) is expected to emerge as the surprise winner to build a 2,000-megawatt greenfield coal-fired plant, better known as Track 3B, in Peninsular Malaysia, sources said.

They said the Energy Commission (EC) is expected to make an announcement soon on the winner of the project, which will cost just under RM12 billion.

Under the plan, the greenfield power plant will be commissioned in stages through October 2018 and April 2019.

Up until last week, YTL Power International Bhd was seen as the favourite to secure the deal.

AmResearch Sdn Bhd, in a report early this month, noted that based on the evaluation report submitted to the EC last month, YTL was the preferred bidder, given that its notional adjusted tariff of 25.2 sen/kilowatt hour (kWh) was the lowest bid.

YTL had proposed for the plant to be built in Tanjung Tohor, Johor, together with SIPP Power Sdn Bhd.

Business Times was told that power from the greenfield plant is mostly to be used in the Klang Valley.

As such, even though on paper YTL has the lowest bid, a plant in the southern most part of Peninsular Malaysia may have to burn additional coal to fire up the Klang Valley.

In a report last year, RHB Reseach had pointed out that apart from cost, other considerations will include the location of the power plant.

The firm also said that at 25 to 28 sen per kWh, the internal rate of return for Track 3B is between eight per cent and 11 per cent.

A victory for 1MDB will be timely as it seeks to sell shares to help ease debts, perched at RM31 billion, Bloomberg estimated.

Read more: 1MDB tipped to win Track 3B http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/diby/Article/#ixzz2r0gBFwjl

Ｂｕｔ　ｅｖｅｎ　ｗｉｔｈｏｕｔ　ｔｈｅ　ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ，　ｗｉｔｈ　ｓｈａｒｅ　ｂｕｙ　ｂａｃｋ　Ｉ　ｔｈｉｎｋ　ｔｈｅ　ｓｈａｒｅ　ｐｒｉｃｅ　ｗｏｎ＇ｔ　ｄｒｏｐ　ｓｏ　ｍｕｃｈ．．．．．．．．．

ｗｈｙ　ｔｏｄａｙ　ｎｏ　ｎｅｗｓ　ｏｎｅ？？？？？

Ｉ　ｂｏｕｇｈｔ　ａｔ　５３　ｓｅｌｌ　ａｔ　７３，　ｂｕｙ　ｂａｃｋ　ａｔ　６９.．．．．．ｄｏｎ＇ｔ　ｋｎｏｗ　ｔｈｉｓ　ｔｉｍｅ　ｃａｎ　ｍａｋｅ　ｐｒｏｆｉｔ　ｏｒ　ｎｏｔ．．．．．

EC to pick power plant bid winner tomorrow

More

THE winner of a multi-billion ringgit power plant contract will be known as early as tomorrow, with YTL Power International Bhd tipped to secure the project coded Track 3B.

The Energy Commission (EC) is expected to decide on the winning bid tomorrow, but the recipient's identity may only be made public next week, according to people familiar with the matter.

YTL Power is said to be the potential recipient to build the 2,000 megawatt (MW) power plant, but industry observers have cast doubt on the group's bid due to compliance issues.

YTL Power's reported bid of 25.12 sen per kilowatt hour (kWh) is the lowest in the tender called by the EC. Competing bidders include heavyweights 1Malaysia Development Bhd, Malakoff Corp Bhd and Tenaga Nasional Bhd.

The sources, however, noted that the EC would also have to take into account the technical parameters of the bids to ensure that the commission's standard is met.

Among other criteria, they noted that the bidders had to use equipment suppliers and contractors which complied with the EC's requirements.

It had been previously reported that YTL Power did not meet the EC's requirement that the Track 3B power plant must be based on proven ultra supercritical (USC) or supercritical (SC) technology.

"A proven track record includes that any unit used in the power plant must be of similar design and technology to five units already in use, each having an output capacity of at least 700MW and in successful operation for three years or more," a source said.

The sources noted that there were a limited number of boiler manufacturers with a strong track record in the USC category, which requires years of experience in utilising the materials and manufacturing techniques that are used in these higher temperature boilers.

The key contractors with sufficient experience are understood to include the Japanese and European boiler suppliers, with the South Koreans only recently started developing capability in this category.

A leading Korean manufacturer was reported to have recently announced that it had developed its first demonstration plant for the 1000MW category, industry observers noted.

"It is only a prototype and therefore, is not in compliance with the EC's request for proposal," the source said.

The sources pointed that having a low bid does not mean low cost. YTL Power's proposed plant site in Tanjong Tohor in Johor is two to three times further away from the major load centre if compared to other proposed sites in Selangor, Negri Sembilan and southern Perak, they said.

This means that the energy loss due to the length of the transmission line and the additional cost incurred by TNB to upgrade the transmission network will have to be taken into account in the evaluation.

They said although YTL had reportedly offered 25.12 sen per kWh, the true cost could be much higher.

Francis Yeoh's YTL frontrunner to win RM11 BIL power plant deal?

YTL Power International Bhd is the front-runner to win a multi-billion ringgit contract to build a power plant, AmResearch said in a report.

AmResearch advises investors to hold YTL shares, which the research firm values at RM1.86 apiece, as it expects the Energy Commission to announce the winning bidder by next Monday.

"The plant, potentially costing RM11 billion, is scheduled to commence operations in stages in October 2018 and April 2019," it said.

YTL is seen as the preferred bidder, given that its notional adjusted tariff of 25.2 sen/kWh was the lowest bid.

YTL had proposed for the project to be built in Tanjung Tohor, Johor, together with SIPP Power Sdn Bhd, AmResearch said.

The research house also noted that if YTL wins the project, as expected, incremental earnings alone could come in at RM260 million, based on YTL's 60 per cent ownership in the venture. BT

Full article: http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=213432:francis-yeohs-ytl-frontrunner-to-win-rm11-bil-power-plant-deal?&Itemid=3#ixzz2qLV2AJyx
Follow us: @MsiaChronicle on Twitter

Funny, how come today they don't want to take up 1.90......Emmmmmm

吉隆坡11日訊）市場消息指出，楊忠禮電力（YTLPOWR,6742,主板基建計劃組）有可能在即將公佈的3B計劃競標結果中，成功競獲價值110億令吉的2千兆瓦煤炭發電廠。


《The Edge》英文財經週報取獲的競標評估報告顯示，楊忠禮電力的每公瓦電力25.23仙出價，為眾多競爭者中的最低價，因此有關單位早在上月向能源委員會（EC）推薦讓楊忠禮電力成最終贏家。

國能出價最高“1個大馬發展有限公司（1MDB）的每公瓦25.65仙出價，則是第二低的出價，MMC機構（MMCCORP，2194，主板貿服組）旗下馬拉科夫（Malakoff）的26.74仙出價排在第三，國家能源（TENAGA,5347,主板貿服組）則是出價最高的競標者，每公瓦出價為28.67仙。”

無論如何，考量其他因素，如發電廠設立地點，出價最低的楊忠禮電力卻未必是最終贏家，各條件齊全的1個大馬發展有限公司，亦是強而有力的競爭者。

領域消息透露，能源委員會將在本週進行會議，以選出最終贏家，相關結果預料將於本月20日公佈。（星洲日報／財經）

For the coming Q report, is it true that the EPS will increase by about 9% even if the sbb share is not cancelled yet? Since the eps is dividing by less share now?

If sbb not willing to pay more, sbb cannot continue anymore, no people want to sell already.....

no people want to sell already. Sbb have to buy at higher price now.....

today haven't see any sbb yet

If EPF not selling anymore, SBB can easily push up to RM1.96...previously they stop at RM1.96....

Result very good but share price not moving.....