1.Thank you for your analysis and contribution. Appreciate your advice and points of concern on the weakness of its balance sheet, income and cash flow statement.

2. My posting is intended to share an alternative view and my personal perception of the counter. It may or may not be correct.

3. Going forward , let's allow the natural forces of supply and demand to determine the long term equilibrium share price of Astro.

1.Since 2014 till the present day Astro has never have a loss year. In fact it has been generating profit between 450m and 770m every year and given out about 91 sen cumulatively in dividend for the past 9 years.

2.It is a well managed company with sustainable business that has demonstrated excellent resilience in a fiercely competitive operating environment. Judging by the distribution of cash dividend and its yield, the company is indeed a cash generating machine.

3.Just because Astro has a bad quarter,it is not doom and much less Holland. One undesirable and less than attractive financial quarter does not define ASTRO.

4.This is a bias perception and is akin to someone picking a beautiful white cat and search thoroughly all over its body, found a black hair then shout out it is a black cat.
17/12/22

1. Astro has experienced a major down trend for the past few months. The share price has collapsed from a height of 1.10 and hit bottom at 64 sen then inched up somewhat to close at 71 sen today. Market has expected the poor result and deterioration in profit performance. The fall in share price has preceded several months before the announcement of bad result today. Hence, to a great extend, the quarterly result has largely been factored into the declining share price.

2.When market opens tomorrow, there will be some selling pressure and fall in price. However,considering the remarks from its press release that the company still record a normal PATAMI of 73m and the decline in profit is largely attributed to the appreciation of USD against the Ringgit the quantum of fall in share price will therefore be limited and constrained in my opinion.

3. When this happen, it should not be alarming. In fact it opens up an opportunity to enter at a lower price level and ride on the bright prospect and great business of Astro for long term value investing and capital appreciation.

4. Share investment is about identifying a great company that has missed one or two quarterly performance like ASTRO or overwhelmed with bad news like ARMADA few years ago so much so that the share price has collapsed to an unthinkably low level, we want to buy them and accumulate more fearlessly. Otherwise, it is unwittingly wasteful.

1. In 2021 the revenue was 659.93m and the net profit was 10.929m. therefore the net profit margin was 1.6%. for the 9-month 2022 the cumulative revenue is 637.7 and profit is 9.07m. Thus, the net profit margin is 1.56%.
2. Basing on these numbers it is reasonably safe to assume that the company's profit margin is 1.6% on less.
3. This also means it has to send out a team to do marketing to sell the cables. it needs to purchase raw material copper to produce the products, ensures its quality, delivery on time and wait 2 months to collect its payment.
4. For all this troubles and risk, SCG gets 1.6% returns on its effort. This number indicates inefficiency in resource management and non effectiveness of its capital employed.

5.To criticize constructively, brutal and unpleasant in the fiercely competitive business environment if you are unable to secure a fair return, it is better off not manufacturing and instead invest with the bank, put it in FD and earn 3% risk free rate.

1 Upon closer examination one would notice that SCG has 800m issued share capital and a 4 rolling quarter EPS of 1.61 sen. At 30sen share price it is therefore traded at a PE price earning of 18.4x
2. The company has enormous borrowing of 191.6m term loan and 6.17m short term borrowing for a total borrowing of RM197.78m. Considering that the market capital is 236m hence, the borrowing of 197.7m represents significantly 83% of the entire company.
3.The company has a cash balance of 19.7m and generate a negative cash flow of (-29.528m) This means the company needs more cash than the business can generate. And hence, considering that it is transacting business beyond 750m annually, 19.7m cash is seriously lacking in working capital.
4. The company generate net profit between 10m to 12m a year. Because of its exceptionally high borrowings scg paid RM5.976m to the bank as interest payment.. This also means that for the 1st six months in a year the company is actually working for the banks.
5.The company had very recently gave its shareholders 400m that is 1 for 2 free warrants. Well,nothing is free in this world. What ever you have profited from the free warrant had been offset by an even bigger fall in the mother share price.
6. The exercise price of the warrant 27.5sen was intentionally set at below the mother share price to enhance its attractiveness. Upon warrant conversion years later the enlarged issued share capital would be 800m + 400m that is 1.2b shares.
7. The will be damage arising from the diminished earning per share upon fully dilution.

8. In conclusion after examining the balance sheet, profit and loss account and the cash flow statement of the company, the attractiveness of SCG may have been somewhat over rated.
14/12/22

If last year's announcement date is observed than Astro is expected to announce its 3rd quarter result on 9th Dec Friday.

Leasing Corp bought 50 million shares and increased its stake in KUB to 17.97% According to Bloomberg data the shares were transacted at 55 sen or RM27.5 million in total.

In my opinion,this transaction signified their confidence in the leadership and management of Johari Abdul Ghani the former Finance Minister.

extracted from the press release.
Pursuant to MFRS 15, development profit from two of the Group’s on-going property
development projects in Singapore will only be recognised upon completion and
handover of the projects, which is expected to be in FY2023. The accumulated profit
of these projects amounted to RM101.7 million, of which RM14.2 million was recorded
in the current quarter, but was not recognised.

2023 will definitely be a good year.

This company had in last year Dec completed a 20% private placement and raise RM97m for development and repayment of bank loan.
This year again propose to undertake 30% private placement to raise RM73m.
Placement shares enlarged share capital, destroy and dilute earning per share thus causing the share price to fall seriously.

In the year 2018 SPSetia had an intra day high exceeding Rm4.01 or thereabouts. Since than it was undergoing a protracted and massive down trend and decline in share price. Just last week it hit bottom at 41sen and rebounced a little and now somewhat stabilize at 51sen.
Form the high and low the share price has dropped 4.01 minus 41 is Rm3.6

SP has 4075m share. This also means 4075 x 3.6 = Rm14.67b in market capital has been wipe out. The share price has bounced back from 41 to 51, a gain of 10sen or RM407m in market cap. Long term investors are still suffering massive losses despite its massive re bounce in recent week. The covid and its aftermath, the ukraine war, supply chain disruption, raising cost of fuel and steel and the slow down in the property market has collapsed the share price. With all these issues and challenges it will need a lot of time for SP to regain its glory days and require great endurance and perseverance for investors to recoup their losses.

would you subscribe for the RCPS?
Assuming you have 100 existing shares,than you are allotted 67 rights to subscribe for the rcps at 38sen. The 67 RCPS can be subsequently converted into 32 mother shares.
If you subscribe you would have to pay 67x38= Rm25.46
It can be converted into 32 mother share and at current price of 50sen it also means the the value of your shareholdings is only 32x50= Rm16.
Hence, you pay 25.46 for something that is worth 16. Would you?

At the current price of 50sen and the predetermined conversion ratio of 67 : 32 means the conversion price is (67 x 38)/32 =79.5sen. This is 29.5sen above the current price of 50sen or 29.5/50 = 59% premium.
The good thing about the rcps is that it comes together with 5.43% interest payment. It will be quoted and listed in 2 day's time. Except for the 5 year time value, it has no intrinsic value. Therefore, any meaningful value ascribe to the Offer of rights is least expected. This is my personal perception and it may be incorrect.

On a long term basis anything below 60 sen is still a good buy. We buy YTL shares for long term sustainable dividend with high yield at 10- year historically low price. At the current price of 57 sen a 3 sen dividend has a yield exceeding 5%.

I have read the article in which you have posted on 30th Sept. It was very analytical and informative, rich in contents and substances, lengthy and painstakingly compiled highlighting all the valuable ingredients of a long term value investing stock. Truly appreciate your fine effort. The contents are useful and beneficial and i therefore recommend any serious investors to read it and profit from it.

whoever executed the 19m shares transaction this evening could also have accumulated it over 5 to 6 days by buying 3m shares at 56sen daily. In this case he only needs to pay 19mx0.56=Rm10.64m instead of 19mx 0.58=rm11.02m. He would enjoy a cost saving of rm11.2 minus 10.64m = RM380,000. This is huge money in 6 days.
Although such transaction is strange and the extra cost somewhat irrational, i tend to believe that for someone who can afford exceeding Rm10m in one transaction surely knows what he is doing and certainly not unwittingly wasteful. Hence, follow the big guy. Will it go wrong?

Listing requirements require that transaction of company share buyback must be reported and announced on the same day on the Bursa website. The fact that YTL did not make any announcement regarding any share purchase has clearly indicated that the shares were purchased by some institutions, local or foreign funds. In anyway the transaction is positive and large volume buying indicates enthusiasm and demonstrates confidence on the prospects of the company.

During pre-closing, someone buys 19m shares up 4 bids to close 58 sen is truly impressive. If tomorrow follows through and closes upwards with big volume, than it is indicative of something good is imminent. Perhaps, the investing public has just begun to notice the DPS , the November x date and the exceptionally high dividend yield.

Dragon 328 wrote. I copy n paste
"Back in 2014-2015, YTL was giving out dividends of 10 sen to 12 sen every year, and has distributed total dividends of RM28 billion over the years".
Is this true?

Between 2001 to 2011 (10 years) YTL has issued share capital 1.8b shares at 50sen par value.
1. During this period it has distributed 15% cash dividend and at 50sen par value it is 7.5sen. SO dividend distributed over the 10 years were 1.85b shares x 7.5sen x10 yrs = Rm1.3875b

2. In 2011 YTL has a corporate exercise to split the shares 5: 1 and the par value was reduced to 10sen and the share capital was enlarged to 1.85x5=9.25b say 10b shares
Together with the distribution of treasury shares plus ESOS over the years the share capital has enlarged to 11b shares today.

3. From 2012 onwards YTL has distributed the following dividends over the years.
2012 =3sen
2013 =3sen
2014=10.5sen
2015=9.5sen
2016=9.5sen
2017=5sen
2018=4sen
2019=4sen
2020= nothing. it gave treasury shares 1; 30
2021=2.5sen
2022=3sen with x -date 10/11/2022
The total dividend over the period from 2012 to 2022 is 54sen
Take 11b x 54sen = RM5.94B
Therefore the total dividend distributed was 5.94b + 1.3875b = rm7.32b.

1.Press Metal (PM) the world largest aluminium producer and a great company has a spectacular fall from 740 to 540. It is on a major downtrend and continues to accelerate in its decline. This is an astounding setback for many die hard and determined devotees of PM. However, considering that the EPS of PMetal is only 15.2sen, so at 740 it was trading at 48x price earning. This is incredible and unbelievably over price. Therefore, the collapse is not surprising, in fact it is expected. And what Buffett would say it is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. And PM aptly fits Buffett's investment description at this moment in time.

2.Technically speaking PM is on the 5th leg of a major down trend. Its 1st leg was down from 740 to 600 that was minus 140. The 2nd leg which was a retracement up leg from 600 to 660 was up 60sen. The 3rd leg was a continuation of its fall from 660 to 480 that was minus 180sen and in the 4th leg it had retracted back from 480 to 550 that was 70sen. PM is now on the final 5th leg of decline. Just 3 days ago it was 540 and this morning it is 502 and continues to show signs of active selling with its price trending and accelerating downward.

3.what can happen next?

5th leg is the final leg of decline. when this is completed, it will go into consolidation before a new pattern and trend would appear again.
In the meanwhile If 1st and 3rd leg are observed as a guild than, it is not unrealistic to see PM would decline from 550 with a quantum of fall between 140sen which is the 1st leg and 180sen the 2nd leg
If we take 550 minus 140 that would mean 410sen

4.Does it make any sense or are we bias and what does it means PM trading at 410?
Let us do a quick PE comparison and evaluation.

Considering that the FTSE Composite Index recorded a monthly P/E ratio of 15.58x on MAY 2022 and PMetal has an earning per share EPS of 15.2sen and hence, at 410sen PMetal will trade at 410 / 15.2 = 27x price earning compare to market PE of 15.58x. Therefore at 410 and if it happens it is still trading at an impressive PE and a huge premium as compare to market PE. Therefore it is not unrealistically unachievable. It is possible and a near certainty.

5.SHARE valuation is an art and not engineering science. Therefore PMetal hitting 410 is purely hypothetical and a personal and individual perception. No one can predict that it will fall to this level and much less when this will happen.

6. Nonetheless, PM now has more than 11m shares under SBL according to the announcement on Bursa. It is this group of people who engages in securities borrowing and lending has a great interest in PM.

7. They are determined to see it continues to fall and profits from it.

PERAK TRANSIT 60.5sen
In defence of PTrans private placement to raise 38m cash through issuing 63.4m new share at indicative price of 60sen. Specifically, PP increases the number of issued capital and reduces the earning per share and it is therefore EPS dilutive and value destroying to the existing shareholders compare to a right issue that is offered to all the shareholders instead of a selective group of friendly parties as in a private placement.
Let's analyze and unmask the fund raising private placement exercise.
1. Last year PTrans generated 138.6m in revenue and made 53.2m in profit. Hence the profit margin is 38.3%
2. The company has 634m shares and the EPS is equal to 8.25sen
3 the private placement involves selling 63.47m new share at 60sen and will successfully raise Rm38.08m
4 After the PP the new issued share capital would be 634m + 63.47m and that would be 697.47 m. The current EPS is 8.25sen and to sustain the current status the company would need to make future total profit of 0.825 x 694.47m = 57.29
Therefore, the extra profit needed to cover the additional new shares arising from the PP is 57.29 minus 53.2 is Rm4.09m
5 Considering that the profit margin is 38.3% therefore the extra revenue that must be generated from the placement exercise would be 4.09 / 0.383 is rm10.6m.
This is the burden of the fund raising exercise to raise 38m cash. Specifically, it means the new project and bus terminal must generate new revenue of 10m. The company knows best and would justify it.

6. What are the advantages and beneficial effects of private placement?.
If the 38m comes from a bank loan or bonds, than the company has to pay interest or coupon payment plus principle payment. Assuming 4.5% interest cost that is 1.71m annually. The PP has erased the responsibilities of principle and interest payment that would boost the cash flow of the company.
Interest payment is an expense and the absent of interest payment of 1.71m would boost the profit bottom line by an equal amount.
7 By next YEAR when the new terminal is completed the revaluation and surplus would add great value to the NTA and profit.
8 Ptrans would be able to enjoy and benefit from reinvestment tax allowance from the project investment exceeding 130m per terminal. There would be substantial tax saving going forward. Tax saving boost cash flow and improves the capability to pay dividend higher than the current 3.2sen annually.
9 after a thorough and closer examination and evaluation, fund raising through private placement although EPS dilution is in fact not entirely damaging and hopeless.
18/4/22

On 8th Apr YTL resumed its uptrend and accelerated further to 65.5sen with a more than 30% rise from the bottom reversal of 50sen.

YTL is a front runner in the race for Digital Banking licence. Media report and the investing public believe YTL could potentially secure 1 of the 5 licences. The prospect is bright.
Malayan cement a wholly owned subsidiary in which YTL has recently acquired via cash and mainly share swap has turnaround with 50m profit will continue to sustain the raising share price.
Hence, premature selling could end up in frustration.
Happy trading

on 17th Jan 2022 i wrote Is AYS a good investment stock at 65 sen.
I concluded and sum up my closing opinion with these remarks.

"Investment is about the future and share price is value at future earning growth and PE multiple.
The next one to 2 years FY22 /23 the annualized future earning for AYS would be
6m x 4 = 24m. Just a guess basing on past years quarterly performance.
With 418m share capital the future earning per share is 24m divided by 418m is 5.7sen.
At current price of 65sen it is trading at a prospective PE of 11.4x .
For a small cap company with erratic profit performance in a cyclical business, Buffett would say a fair company but selling at a wonderful price and has no intention to invest.

1. Last week it closed at 57sen and the market has assigned a diminishing prospective PE of 10x. A prospective PE of 8x which is not unreasonably expected arising from the bearish market sentiment , a small cap stock with no institutions and quality shareholders would price the counter at 45.5sen. PE of 7x is 40sen

2.Perhaps one should know in the most recent 3rd quarter, despite AYS announcing a profit of 20.82m and a 9 months cumulative profit of 91.18 m it is a worrying concern that it has generated a negative cash flow of Rm72.9 m from operation. Where has the money gone?

3.The company has financed its operation through borrowing. Its total liabilities of Bank borrowings had increased to(15.4 m + 328.9) =344.3m whereas its current market capital (418m x 48.5 sen) is only 203m.

The cash flow statement has a fresh borrowing of 50m of cash generated from financing activities of bank borrowing in the 3rd quarter.

4.The company experienced a remarkable increase in inventories during the quarter. The inventories closing balance has shot up from 278m to 560m. That is a spectacular rise of 282m. The company is enduring an enormous challenge to push its stock with minimal success. Hence, money and resources and capital are inefficiently lock up in the huge inventories.

5. In elementary accounting, opening stock add purchase less closing stock equal cost of good sold. So, if the closing stock is high as in AYS, the cost of good sold is low therefore the Gross profit is very high. In AYS, the stock inventory has increased by 282 m as extracted from balance sheet.
Hence, this also means the profit is hidden in the bulk of stock that has sadly not been sold.
2 AYS is a company trading in steel and steel related products. This means steel is an input material to their products. So when price of steel goes up their material cost increase and will erode their margin and profit. We have seen the enormous rise in inventories and deteriorating profit performance for 3 consecutive quarters.

In conclusion when everyone cheer about the raising steel price, it is in fact in my opinion a burden to the company.

This is my personal and fundamental perception of the counter.
All the numbers are extracted from the balance sheet.
My view may or may not be correct.

The adverse opinion report was initiated by kenaga following the result announcement yesterday. Incidentally Kenaga growth fund is holding about 11.4m shares. Today's abnormal volumn and sell down could be from the fund. Once this is taken out and shares changed hand, the price will stabilize and more reflective of its earnings and PE multiple and net cash flow from operation.
The perception and target price issued by PBB and AmInvest and Kenaga are vastly different.
ignore the noise and focus on fundamental.

Today is the day for the smart and responsive management of Ptrans to act and take the appropriate action. The share price is undervalued and trading at low PE and falling despite its record year of profit performance.

The company has 645m shares and 82m cash and bank balance. It can contemplate to implement a share buyback of 2.0% or about 12.8m shares gradually and progressively to take out the weak holders by ultilizing 10% of the cash or 8.2m.

Going forward and for the subsequent quarters the company may choose to announce a dividend in spices to conserve the cash for current projects development.

All is not lost.
On a full year 12 months basis, the revenue of Ptrans increased from 119m to 138m and the profit after tax increased from 41.8m to 53.2m. Therefore, the percentage increase for the revenue and profitability is 15.9% and 27.2% respectively. Ptrans has not only been able to withstand the severely challenging and damaging operating business environment in the midst of pandemic but has successfully triumph over it. The number says it all. The management and its team is truly remarkable and commendable.

For the 12 months in 2021, Ptrans has generated an insane amount of Rm105m net cash from operation. That is an increase of 84% from the net cash of 57m generated in 2020. The cash generated internally is almost sufficient to build an integrated public transportation terminal.

The cash and bank balance has increased from 22m to 80.6m. The company is in a sound and healthy position to meet its working capital requirements and has sufficient cash to consistently pay quarterly dividend.

In conclusion Ptrans is company that has
1, excellent team of management
2. consistently generate earning and earning growth for 5 successive years
3 pay quarterly dividend
4 generate enormous net cash from operation. 105m (2021) and 57m (2020)
5 at 62sen it is trading at a low PE of 7.5x
6 being fully integrated , it has a competitive advantage.
7 excellent growth prospects. Now it owns and operates two 2 IPTT , a third one is under construction and another one in the planning.
8 new revenue and management fees from new terminal management contracts

Heaven describes optimism and Holland tend to associate with pessimism. One must be optimistic to invest in any counter. You must believe that you have done the best TA technical analysis and FA fundamental analysis and trust the company will perform well and its share price will appreciate and continue to stay invested even if the counter is facing a short term setback.
Stay away from the screen and ignore the daily price fluctuations. These are just insignificant noise in the market.
Trust your analysis and believe that you are on a cruise ship to Paris. Slowly but surely

Appreciate your input, additional information and invaluable advice.
May your investment be fruitful and multiply.

Basing on previous revenue and earnings record, Ptrans reported 35m in revenue and 13m in profit. Therefore the profit margin is more than 35%.
According to the Edge write up, the logistics tenants B&L and UFO will have a revenue contribution of 3m per month. That is 36m a year. In addition, the 1st. TMC business will bring in new revenue of 1.2m monthly or 14.4m a year. Assuming the 2nd TMC business which is a much bigger one currently under negotiation would bring in say 20m yearly, this would mean
the new revenue contribution going forward would be 36m+14.4m+20m = 70.4m say 70m

Question
what does 70m means?

1. The current annual turnover for Ptrans is 140m. This means there will be an incredibly huge increase of 50% top line growth in the coming years.

2. Considering that the currently achievable profit margin of 35% is taken as a guide, there would be a new profit contribution of 70m x 35% is 24.5m from the new ventures.

3 For the 9MFY21 PTrans reported revenue 105m and profit of 40.5m . Market expects for the whole year the revenue would be 140m and expected earning 54m.

4 For year 2022 and if everything materialize, the revenue would be 140 +70 is 210m
the profit would be 54 + 24.5 is 78.5m

5. perhaps, this is the reason why institutions, and big Funds, Government agency, and assets management companies and foundations have suddenly become top 30 shareholders in Ptrans.

6 if you buy Ptrans, it will not move up straight away. It might even slide down a little. If this happens, it is not alarming because Ptrans has all the ingredients of a long term value investing stock.
It will go up slowly, surely and safely.

7 This is not a recommendation to buy. But if you subscribe to long term value investing I hope you will be passionately curious.

Beside having a strong balance sheet,revenue and earning growth, as well as consistent and increasing dividend payout it is worthy to note that the shareholders profiles of PerakTransit has drastically changed. In the past few years Ptrans has only been able to attract mainly retail investors. However, beginning 2021 the TOP 30 shareholders has successfully included reputable institutions and unit trust Fund and insurance companies.

They are EPF, KWP, PHILLIP CAPITAL MGMT, KENAGA GROWTH FUND, MAYBANK SMALL CAP FUND, TOKIO MARINE INSURANCE, GREAT EASTERN TAKAFUL AND THO FOUNDATION.
These are long term investors who believe in the excellent prospects and trajectory growth that would have a far reaching effect in the earnings and values of perak Transit in the coming years. They have done the research and analysis. It can't go seriously wrong. So, follow the institution, invest with them,it works.

It is unwittingly reckless to compare Cristiano Ronaldo with Soo chin Ann although both are footballers.

Truly glad to know that we shared similar opinion.
It is hope that AYS concurred with our perception and act on it accordingly for its market cap to scale and achieve new height.

AYS has 2 qtrs of excellent profit performance and at 70sen, it is trading at a prospective PE of less than 3x. While we do not know why it is trading at a wildly unreasonable and absurdly low PE,the management could look into and improve the quality profiles of its shareholders.

The latest AR showed that the largest 30 shareholders holding 80% of the shares are mainly Chew,Ann,Tan,Lim,Chia, Ong,Tay,Ng,Mak,Wong,Jee,Toh,Low,Au,Cheng,Chong, Tan and Gan.
It would be impressive if they can bring onboard as shareholders the institutions and funds such as EPF, TH KWAP, Angkatan T, Public Mutual, Prudential or any other impressive names.
If this is accomplished, the share price could stabilize at fair value market PE multiples.

Just like a product, management needs to promote the attractiveness of the company by engaging the institutions and corporate presentation.

Not everything that shines is gold. And likewise not everything that glitters is diamond.

go read my posting if you are interested.
I am not an expert. Anyone can write in i3.

It is a platform use for sharing, learning and earning.

On 17th Jan 2022, I wrote,"
The next 0ne to 2 years annualized future earning for AYS would be 6m x 4 = 24m."
That would mean 2023 and 2024. It is just an expression of opinion.

AYS already announced
1st qtr profit of 32.35m
2nd qtr profit 24.76m

Congratulation on your remarkable stock selection and its commendable price performance and persistent appreciation despite the falling DJ index and the overall gloomy sentiment caused by a potential raise in US interest rate to align with the raising rate of inflation.

Dato Sri bought 110,000 shares. He therefore expects the share price to go up.
This insider buying may be taken as a sign of confidence in the company's earning and growth.
company is expected to announce its financial result by the end of February.
This endeavor signal an opportunity to invest in PTrans.

1.All companies preparing for listing would detail how it arrives at the IPO price base on annualized earning and price earning multiples in its prospectus. According to the prospectus the offer price has been severely overprice to benefit the owners. Basing on the earning result the EPS is 3.71 sen. Hence the IPO price of Rm1.07 is selling at pe 28.8x.
Hence, It is not a surprise to see the share price collapsed on 1st trading day.

2. The IPO price and the pricing strategy also means the boss has taken all the money and leave nothing on the table for the investors. The sold by offer- for sale 139.5m shares at 1.07 and pocket Rm149m cash. They already cash out and have no interest to support the share price.

3.The biggest victims are the managers and senior executives down to the supervisors to whom were given pink form and subscribed fully to the IPO. These are the employees who had over the years demonstrated loyalty, honesty and responsibility to the company. They contributed diamond to the company and were rewarded with a box of sand plus a snake on first day of trading.
Everyone in the company lost money. Every investors lost money. The BIG winner is the boss and his family.

4 it is not difficult to imagine that the moral and confidence level of employees in the company has sink to rock bottom. The paid 107 and now valued at 82sen and continued falling.

5 the only way to mitigate the horrendously unpleasant experience in the life of the naive and innocent employees is for the boss to buy back all the employees's shares to absorb the losses through the family IPO proceed.
OTHERWISE the company is expected to see a total decline in employee performance and contribution across departments.

Warren Buffett's investment advice with Cinderella reference

This is what he wrote,

“The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball.

They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice.

But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.”

Last done price 64sen.

Is it possible for the Arrogant Young Swan to soar like an eagle to 1.00 longitude northwards with tiny geese wings. It is not gamely impossible. In fact it is highly probably, but someone must be responsible.
Let us look at the fundamental theory of demand and supply and its determinant of equilibrium price.
The supply of share or the issued share capital of AYS is relatively fixed at 418m shares.

1.The owner holds 264.70m shares according to latest Bursa announcement.

2.The placee bought 38.04m shares at 76sen in a private placement arrangement on 3/11/2021

3.The price has since tumbled and they collapsed it further for cost averaging. It is not unbelievable if the have purchased additional 38.04m shares at around 60sen to increase their total holding to 76.08m shares and reduce their average cost price to 68sen.

4. Assume our senior investor and generous philanthropist holds 3% or 12m shares

5 Assume the cronies and friendly parties to the company and placee hold 2% or 8m shares.

6. Next, if you add up 264.7+38.04+38.04+12+8 you get 360.78m shares.

7 Take 418m minus 360.78m you are now aware that it is highly possible that there are only about 57.22m shares effectively in circulation. This is terrifyingly small.

When the supply of shares has diminished and dwindled to an acutely small number, it is easily manipulative and horrendously dictative. There was a sell down last week before the great recovery. A lot more shares could have been scooped up by the cronies. The counter is now overwhelmingly delighted and overjoyed to be in an evil and devilishly created corner* position

The party has started.
Welcome to the AYS ball of the year.
You are like Cinderella in a pretty gown arriving on horse and carriage.
The music has begun.
Let us dance.

*Remember to leave before 12 mid night*.

Thereafter, the horse and carriage will revert back to pumpkin and mice.

Some analyst reports consist of bias opinion and over rated valuation. Let us compare and contrast Kawan AND Perak Transit
These are the performance parameters.

KAWAN PTRANS
EPS 7.19 8.32
ROE 7.96 10.68
DY 1.72 % 4.74%
DPS 3 Sen 3.2Sen
PROFIT 28.4m 53.6m
NTA 1.00 0.77
P/NTA 1.74X 1.13X
PE 21.8X 8.17X
market capital 626m 439m

SHARE PRICE Rm1.74 68sen

These numbers show that Ptrans is more superior and attractive in all aspect and yet it is trading at less than 40% of the value of Kawan.

Would you unfriend Kawan to ride on PTrans ?
A price earning multiple of 10x would price PTrans at 83sen.

Those who know don"t speak. Those who speak don't know.

PTrans has successfully produced a set of great result. Its 9MFY21 is 40.5m and 9MFY20 was 28.7m. There is a 41% increase in profit performance and hence, the result is commendable and praiseworthy. Ptrans is resilient and has been able to withstand the severely unfavorable operating environment arising from the pandemic and triumph over it.

It is therefore unwittingly reckless and embarrassingly ignorant to place Ptrans in the same category as SD.
A wise man is one who knows what he does not know.

" we all know light travels faster than sound. That is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak" Said a famous scientist.

share consolidation does not create value. It is akin to previously holding four RM5 note and now holding one RM20 note. The total value remain the same. Although share consolidation would drive up share price but a proportionate reduction in the number of shares will put the value of share holdings back to its original position. It is naive to believe that one could benefit and profit from the exercise of share consolidation in which the share price is speculative and manipulative. In the end go for fundamental. ONLY profit will drive up share price. And sadly K company is seriously lacking

Mega contract of RM2.6b between 2 listed companies ended up like small children throwing tiny stones into useless mining pool with no ripple. when good news does not drive up share price, be cautious.

Techbond is currently trading at 48sen and a 4 - quarter rolling PE of 22 times. For a company whose issued share capital is 529m and a considerably small revenue of 22m per quarter, is more than fully value. There is not much meat now in this counter. For all honesty,in the immediate term the price will not advance much unless intentionally and artificially manipulated and push up
to benefit someone.

Techbond was listed in 2018 with initial public offering price of 66sen a share. Over the years it has given1 free warrant for every 2 shares and also 5 bonus shares for 4 shares. if you have purchased 4000 shares at its IPO the value of your shareholding is calculated as follows.

Initial outlay of capital is 4000 x 0.66 is Rm2640
After 5 for 4 bonus you would end up with 9000 shares
Today,s value of 9000 shares is 9000 x 0.48 is Rm4320
2000 free warrant x 0.17 is Rm340

Total value is 4320 + 340 is 4660
investment return is ( 4660 /2640 ) - 1 is 76%

Founder and his family did not sell any shares during IPO.
Only In Aug they sold 50m warrant via DBT and the warrant price shoot up immediately from 25 sen to 31.5sen but did not sustain and collapse all the way to 16sen.

They dispose another 50m warrants in Oct via DBT and made an attempt to jack up the warrant price again. This time it is slightly difficult because the 1st 50m disposed in Aug has come back to haunt them. Besides, the 4.5m disposal of mother share by major shareholder in the open mkt just days ago was confusing and damaging to those who intend to see an upwards movement.

Mother share continues to show sign of weakness because Market is reacting to the annual 7 sen step down exercise price of warrants on 4th Oct 2021.

Yesterday the warrant price was 41sen and mother share was Rm1.66

The holder of warrants has two options to choose from for him to get one mother share.

First he can surrender the warrant and buy a bank draft for RM1.56 and convert the warrant into mother share. His cost is the market value of the surrendered warrant plus the conversion price that is 41+ 1.56 = 1.97
Hence,he unwittingly paid 197 for a share that is worth 1.66

Second, he can sell his warrant in the open market for 41sen and than top up 1.25 to buy one mother share in the open market at 1.66.
In this case he can save 1.56 minus 1.25 equal to 31sen per share.
Two days ago some one convert 136622 shares.

Therefore he paid extra 136622 x 0.31 = RM42,352.

The OR has ceased trading. Company is waiting for holders of original rights to subscribe for the new shares at 22 sen and get one free warrant. Last day of payment is 27/9/21. Ironically, the mother share is now trading at 18.5 sen. Would you subscribe? Is there any logic?

After a while,market would realize that the cash alone Rm 423m is bigger than the market capital of the whole company Rm356m. Often times there is a mismatch between the value of the company and the price that the market has assigned to it. The market is efficient and investors are not ignorance. Very soon the pricing mismatch will narrow and someday even surpass it. May be weeks maybe months. This will happen when the management announce that it has found a way to use the money wisely and mightily for the expansion of its business that would generate new revenue and profit.

This company belongs to Johari the 2nd Finance Minister in the previous Government. We he bought over and became a major shareholder he began to dispose of the non core business to raise cash for strategic growth and sustaining profitability of the company in the future.
Yesterday, it announced results. The profit caught my eyes. It came from disposal gain of 97m.
Upon further and closer examination of the balance sheet of the company now has RM423M cash and RM38m borrowing. So the net cash is RM385m.
The issued shares capital is 556m shares and at 63sen the mkt cap is Rm353m whereas the net cash alone is 385m without including the assets and properties. Strange

if you buy this share the cash on hand is already bigger than the market capital of the entire company.
It is a steal, so cheap that it is like you pay 63sen and get the rest of the properties for free.

See how it goes in the coming days.