Calvin Tan,
I was piqued by the sudden appearance of this thread started by you and I did some rudimentary desktop research...

MUI was a conglomerate with market price of RM 32 per share stock at its peak..... It closing price last Friday was 21.5 cents per share ....MUIIND share price had declined by 99.32 % since its peak price. MUI had lots of opportunities and assets in its hey days but it whittled away its opportunities through the years... KKP now still works till 9 pm daily, a hard worker no doubt and travels frequently and employs two secretaries in his office...one work in the morning shift whereas the other work starting in the afternoon till 9 pm daily...but there is no much result to show for all the hard work he had put in over the years....the stark reality is despite the hard work he had put in all these tears ...MUI share price had plummeted by 99.32% over the years and is now languishing at its bottom.

The objective fact is MUI share price had dwindled from a peak price of RM 32 per share to a dismal 21.5 cents now.

Sorry I may be a bit blunt...MUIIND had KKP at its helm all this years and what KKP had done all these years was to "reward all MUI shareholders from its peak share price of RM 32 per share to 21.5 cents per share now" and KKP is still in charge...If KKP cannot ADD VALUE TO MUIIND Share price all these years...what makes you think that now KKP can really deliver now besides being a born again Christian? KKP and current crop of MUIIND BOD and management had not delivered value to MUIIND shareholders all these years and a lot of MUIIND shareholders had suffered in silent agony? Fortunately I am not one of those shareholders who suffered tremendous loss in value of MUIIND share price for so many years ...

What are the STRATEGIC ACTIONS that KKP and MUIIND shall embark in the future that will ADD VALUE to MUIIND? I understand that MUIIND is pushing for a capital payback to shareholders from PMC...When will this Capital repayment from PMC to Shareholders take place? IF MUIIND pushes for Capital repayment then MUININD really need the financial injection from PMC.... MUIIND really need the money from PMC...

If the capital repayment materialize, what will be the NEXT STRATEGIC ACTIONS that KKP and MUIIND shall embark on to INCREASE TOP LINE & BOTTOM LINE GROWTH IN MUIIND AS A GOING CONCERN...What has changed in MUIIND management structure? Has MUIIND delivered extremely superb financial performance that is a screaming buy right now?? I do not see much changes in MUIIND till now? Please support your response with facts on Planned strategic action plans by MUIIND to increase TOP LINE GROWTH and BOTTOM LINE GROWTH in MUIIND Group of companies......

Please advise what had changed all these years to warrant a "screaming buy by Calvin tan on MUIIND now" besides the fact that its share price is now languishing at near all time low of 21.5 cents...What are the compelling factors taking place in MUIIND that warrant a BUY on MUIIND now???

Good night and may God really bless & prosper the loyal MUIIND shareholders who had suffered in silent agony all these years..

Calvin Tan, Thanks for the info..

mikekwong55,
Sometimes I do wonder what is the real purpose of this Tapering talk...Is it to talk the market down to prevent excessive euphoria in the global equity markets...The US govt is geared up to its eye balls with 17.5 Trillion USD ...Can the US govt afford to pay higher interest rate to refinance maturing bonds? The Japanese govt is even geared much higher to the US...If anything we should focus on what is happening in Japan as if Japan really collapse it will have worldwide ramifications...

Janet Yellen in the past had mentioned negative interest rate on cash deposits...so will Janet Yellen taper or will she try to keep interest rate to as low as possible or introduce negative interest rate on cash deposits???

It is anybody's guess what she will do.....My take is Ben Bernanke was fired(tenure not renewed) by President Obama the moment he whispered "TAPERING"...and caused financial convulsion in a short period...I think the FED will be more responsible in their future statements/// so far the speculation on Tapering is by Investment houses and not by the FED...

Calvin Tan, Well it is good to know that PMC and you are EXTREMELY BULLISH on PMC Chocolate business growth in top line and bottom line.

Capital expenditure once realized becomes capital expenses and these capital expenses has certain lifespan and will be depreciated over its lifespan on an annual depreciated value basis.

For instance plant machinery to improve future income once purchased in this year with a determined lifespan of say 5 years must be depreciated starting this year at 1/5 of its purchased cost. Buildings has say 20 years lifespan and will be depreciated accordingly. Software, office equipment is also depreciated over say 5 years period.
So the Net Profit figure for any particular year will have already taken off the annual depreciation value of these capital expenditures.

So how does one compute Free cash Flow??

Calvin Tan, The 2013 figures for PMC including property transaction will of course be better than 2012 figures....As an investor I am looking at chocolate business only for 2013 as I want to know whether the chocolate business revenue and net profit B4 tax figures for 2013 is better than 2012 figures.... That is all I want to know as an investor as I purely look at chocolate biz as a going concern...

The property sales , asset payback will not occur on a yearly basis...its once off two off but not every year ...what will deliver the top line and bottom line growth for PMC is whether the fundamentals for the choco biz(own brands + agency products) is improving or deteriorating...on the surface it seem to be deteriorating...but it is not a final conclusion as yet as I do not have the OEM sales and profit contribution figures for 2012 and 2013 YTD figures of course

Capital expenses for machinery /production equipment has fixed depreciation schedule over say 5 years for equipment once it is incurred. The duration of the life of the equipment ( 5 years or longer span of life)is specified by individual companies anyway but IAS has certain guidelines on lifespan of production equipment.

The yearly equipment depreciated value for capital expenditure will be subtracted against Gross profit to arrive at Net profit figure. In Cash flow from business operations computation, the depreciated value of equipment will be added back( as depreciation is just a pure accounting treatment) to Net profit figures.

So in FCF computation, the balance value of the Capital expenses(Capital Expenditure value less accumulated depreciation to date ) will subtracted from the Normal cash flow from operations computation...Is that the correct treatment kcchongnz??

Next Quarter is Q1 2014...This quarter is Q4 2013..Which quarter are you referring to Calvin?? My question to you is on this current Quarter i.e Q4 2013...Are you alluding to the fact that Q4 2013 will be better than Q4 2012 figures and that 2013 for chocolate business will be better than 2012 chocolate business(property transactions taken out)??

kcchongnz,
Isn't the $15,000 for capital expenses for maintenance as well as growth already reflected in the P&L accounts at Net profit level in terms of equipment depreciation and maintenance expenses already incurred for that specific financial period??

When Cash flow is computed the deprecation, changes in working capital has to be added back to Net Profit figures ...

Calvin tan, So will Q4 2013 and 2013 figures(revenue and profit b4 tax) be much better than Q 4 2012 and 2012 figures for chocolates products business (property sales taken out) ???

Calvin Tan,
The Q3 Report has also YTD Q3 2013 and YTD Q3 2012 figures. So 75% of the year had gone by and the reported YTD 2013 info for Choco products(own brand) + Agency brands had apparently deteriorated compared to YTD Q3 2012 performance. So Q4 is halfway over and recovery in revenue and profitability is imperative for Q4 and full 12 months 2013 figures.. Are you confident that Q4 2013 will post much better revenue and profit that Q4 2012??

As long term investor we must always watch on the lookout for improving fundamentals and the fundamentals for 2013 is slightly worse than 2012 for Choco products + Agency products based on reported figures..it appears to be deteriorating but it may not be...

You had mentioned that OEM sales are dropping...What was the OEM sales in YTD Q3 2012 versus YTD Q3 2013?? What is the difference in OEM sales between YTD Q3 2013 vs YTD Q3 2012?? Is the revenue drop in YTD 2013 vs YTD Q3 2012 smaller or bigger than the revenue loss for OEM sales in YTD Q3 2013 compared to YTD Q3 2012??

Looking forward towards your input as right now without these figures...it is difficult to assess whether fundamentals are improving or deteriorating but on the surface it looked as if it is deteriorating...having said that on a long term investor we want to see higher revenue and gross contribution margins from own brands such as TANGO, TUDOR and CRISPY as Agency products has margin limitations and one can lose the agency distribution as well...

Good Afternoon Calvin Tan,
PMC chairman, Dr Ngui Chon Hee, as per latest Q3 Report on prospects for 2013 had stated as follows:
- PMC will continue with its competitive strategy of FURTHER developing its range of products to enhance its market position
-Strengthen the distribution of Agency brands
-Rationalize its manufacturing facilities to improve productivity
-Continue to explore new markets overseas

PMC Chairman had focussed on PMC prospects in 2013 on basically TANGO, CRISPY, TUDOR and AGENCY BRANDS such as Toblerone etc. Pursuant to PMC chairman message to shareholders, Please advise as follows:

-Has PMC developed its range of products in 2013 to enhance its market position? If yes, what are these?? What was the incremental reveue and gross contribution margin for YTD Q3 2013 figures??

-Has PMC strengthened the distribution of Agency Brands?? If yes, why has distribution expenses for agency products caused losses for PMC in YTD Q3 2013 report ? Has sales of agency brands increased for YTD Q3 2013?? What is the incremental revenue increased and gross contribution of Agency products versus Incremental cost of Transportation in strengthening distribution of Agency brands??

-Has PMC rationalized its manufacturing facilities to improve productivity? You had earlier mentioned that there is only 1 factory. What action had been taken by PMC to rationalize its facilities? Has there been productivity increase?? If there is why isn't this shown in the bottom line of PMC for YTD Q3 2013??

-What new markets has PMC opened up in YTD Q3 2013? What is the incremental revenue and Product contribution margins for these new market??

Based on your chairman's message in Q3 2013 report, PMC business is not turning around but fundamentals in the chocolate business is worsening a little as based on the YTD Q3 reported figures with property transaction taken out, PMC had fared worse compared to YTD 2012 performance. On prospects for 2013...PMC Chairman Dr Ngui had ONLY focussed on Chocolate products(own brands) and Agency Brands..



Post Reply Back

Market is imperfect especially small n medium cap stocks as most fund managers cannot invest as it is not their targeted stocks and liquidity is an issue with low market cap below RM 1 billion.

Calvin Tan,
Good afternoon and hope you had a good lunch...You have remained silent on the contents below which I just like to append as follows

James Wong is the COO of PMC..despite your claim that he is turning around PMC for 7 quarters, PMC does not show much operational Profits for 2013 . I have performed a Quick Review of Performance for Chocolate operations based on latest Q3 report from PMC (I took out non chocolate biz such as property sales)

Q3 '13 Q3 '12 Variances from Q3'12
Revenue 18,907 21,804 (-13.29%)
Gross Profit 6,130 8,841 (-30.66%)
Gross Profit % 32.42% 40.55%
Profit b4 Tax -142 1,686 (-108.4%)
Profit b4 Tax % -0.75% 7.73%

YTDQ3'13 YTDQ3'12 Variances from YTD Q3'12
Revenue 56,390 58,441 (-3.5%)
Gross Profit 19,376 21,176 (-8.5%)
Gross Profit % 34.36% 36.23% (-1.87%)
Profit b4 Tax -101 1,207 (-108.4%)
Profit b4 Tax % -0.18% 2.07%

Based on PMC Q3 reported figures on Revenue growth, Profit b4 tax growth ...I cannot conclude that PMC business is turning around...It is not turning around but fundamentals in the chocolate business is worsening a little as based on the YTD Q3 reported figures with property transaction taken out, PMC had fared worse compared to YTD 2012 performance.

You may disagree with this but please voice your disagreement supported by facts.....

Are you very sure that "QE tapering soon next year"? Can the US Govt with 17 trillions USD Debts up to their eyeballs pay higher interest rate for its Govt bonds which need refinancing??..

Maybe ...the term "Negative interest on cash deposits may be sounded next year...Janet Yellen had already mentioned about negative interest rate on cash deposit this some time ago "

As there is lots of uncertainty now and in the future ...it makes sense to be flexible and conservative in ones investment outlook ...hidden gem is one of the tools to evaluate future investment..

I am not an investor of Tien Wah but this thread somehow piqued my interest...kcchonnz had done terrific work on determining the intrinsic value of Tienwah based on reported figures and most of i3 participants here would have learnt if they had taken the effort to do so...

The intrinsic value approach relies on past reported financial figures...of course if one knows the biz very well and can see its future biz very well ... one can use DCF( on FCF) basis to arrive at NPV of the business and that is assuming that past success factors will guarantee future success...but this may not be true in every case though.

I do not know anything about Tien Wah but I heard that they had opened up a factory in Vietnam...what will its future biz be in Vietnam??
Moreover AMVIG is doing well in China but then again CHINA is comprise of so many provinces where each province is very large in land mass and each province is actually a "country" bigger than other small countries outside China . So what is the biz potential of AMVIG going forward.....Doing biz in China is rather complicated...one can be successful in one area but a disaster in another as Past success factor DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE SUCCESS...

Talking A Lot of Non sense after selling. Who says PM CORP HAS OLD OLD PEOPLE IN CHARGE? EVER MET DIRECTOR JAMES WONG NGEN FAAT? HE IS FULL OF LIFE AND ENERGY!! TURNING AROUND PM CORP FOR 7 QUARTERS NOW!

Calvin Tan,
James Wong is the COO of PMC..despite your claim that he is turning around PMC for 7 quarters, PMC does not show much operational Profits for 2013 . I have performed a Quick Review of Performance for Chocolate operations based on latest Q3 report from PMC (I took out non chocolate biz such as property sales)

Q3 '13 Q3 '12 Variances from Q3'12
Revenue 18,907 21,804 (-13.29%)
Gross Profit 6,130 8,841 (-30.66%)
Gross Profit % 32.42% 40.55%
Profit b4 Tax -142 1,686 (-108.4%)
Profit b4 Tax % -0.75% 7.73%

YTDQ3'13 YTDQ3'12 Variances from YTD Q3'12
Revenue 56,390 58,441 (-3.5%)
Gross Profit 19,376 21,176 (-8.5%)
Gross Profit % 34.36% 36.23% (-1.87%)
Profit b4 Tax -101 1,207 (-108.4%)
Profit b4 Tax % -0.18% 2.07%

Based on PMC Q3 reported figures on Revenue growth, Profit b4 tax growth ...I cannot conclude that PMC business is turning around. You may disagree with this but please voice your disagreement supported by facts...

excelyou,
TQ for the info....
Censof now owns 45% of TEB...so what TEB earns in future Censof will account for 45 % of TEB future EBIT. Censof has its IT GST products and so does TEB as well ....In terms of FUTURE Revenue value ,revenue growth rate and gross margins of the potential GST related IT biz, does Censof IT products or TEB IT products has the bigger FUTURE revenue potential, FUTURE revenue growth rate and future EBIT potential , future EPS growth rate?

How big is the market potential in $$ for IT GST software? What will be its growth rate over the years? Who are the competitors to Censof and to TEB...Does Censof and TEB has its business MOAT??

Thanks for your advise.

Christopher tan,
OK that is good....KNM UPTREND is still intact...I guess yesterday was the great flushing exercise to weed out contra players & weak holders....As uptrend is still intact...the right strategy is to LONG KNM...

Christopher Tan,
Why you sweat so much buying this morning? Did u go in yesterday afternoon when there was great fear, doom, darkness ???

Hi kawan kawan,
did u collect KNM yesterday in the afternoon????

A Board that does that means it has no future growth plans for the company that requires it to hoard cash for investing in high growth prospective businesses in the coming years.

Mktwatch,
I will leave it to the MUIIND business leaders on the future growth strategies as they know best...we may think we know better but we may possibly not know ...I see lots of wisdom in returning capital to shareholders and I have confidence that once the return of capital is executed the whole group of companies including PMC will be focussed on driving UP performance to deliver RETURN FROM CAPITAL to shareholders ..

Mktwatch,
I took note of your concerns but I must give the benefit of the wisdom to the main shareholder of PMC and that is MUIIND....MUIIND as per Calvin's info owns 70% of PMC...If MUIIND decides that the best strategy to drive up value, top line growth and bottom line growth of PMC as well as the MUIIND group is to unlock the values in PMC then I see immense value and lots of wisdom in the strategy of UNLOCKING VALUES in PMC which will drive future performance in returns from capital.... the first step is return of capital to shareholders ......

In my view I see lots of wisdom in the chosen strategy of unlocking values as this strategy will be the catalyst that will drive up FUTURE performance in top line and bottom line of PMC and MUIIND group of companies...

Kcchongnz,
Thank you for the great financial analysis of these stocks leading to its intrinsic value. It's superb in the quality of analysis, very conservative in financial approach , very succinct and to the point and the current graham net net intrinsic value reflects current state of development in Iskandar region with small pockets of development in a very large land mass relative to Singapore.

Well ..if development in Iskandar does indeed gather pace in the future with the influx of new knowledge based industries and if Pengerang truly emerges and establishes itself as the Oil & Gas hub of ASEAN within the next 10 years which leads to growth in GDP per capita and disposable incomes I envisage that the current graham net net intrinsic values will form a bottom baseline value going forward...

In view of this it is worth a hold of these stocks as these 3 stocks will benefit from the eventual growth in GDP per capita and disposable incomes.

This is a good opportunity and also good timing now to collect EAH...

Q @45 cents and below...don't chase....Be patient to buy..

Now is the perfect time to collect some more...

Hi kcchongnz,
A Very Good morning to you and family,
Please advise on your take of intrinsic value of Daiman, Crescendo and KSL properties as these stocks have sizeable land bank in Iskandar region. Over a long term basis ,All these counters will be delivering good profits, EPS and increasing EPS. In the event that land price appreciate further say by 30%, 50%, 70% surge over long term basis , what is your intrinsic valuation of these companies when you sensitize the appreciation of the land prices in these three properties...KSL is a laggard as it has relatively higher debts but KSL city mall is worth a few hundred millions and KSL had ventured into Klang valley properties and there are talks of privatization......both crescendo and Daiman had appreciated in price. Except KSL, Diaman and Crescendo has paid relatively good dividends. Daiman management/owners are rather inactive....maybe they are just too comfortable...lacks drive....Crescendo is really active and are go getters as well as KSL..

Looking forward to your valued feedback on the sensitized intrinsic valuations.

Yes you can use chartnexus with windows 8. Just follow Chartnexus setup procedure..

MLM and direct sales business model may be good now but I really doubt this business model can really sustain and grow ...internet savvy consumer companies are investing on Biz to Consumer Internet sales and this will be the future...This means that companies collect payment first then deliver the products...it can price its products cheaper as it does not need to pay distributor margins, distributor incentives etc and these companies earns good money by selling direct to the consumer vide internet platform....Furthermore the company has no bad debts as it collects money first prior to delivery...

Just wondering whether PMC is considering this alternative direct sales channel as the choco products itself is not voluminous...

And Calvin had stated that the next Q4 2013 results to be released in Q1 2014 will show increased revenue and positive EBIT for Oct to Dec 2013 sales and EBIT figures......hopefully we will have some qualitative comments in the reported Q4 2013 report..

PMC is now a pure asset play as it has no earnings at the moment...downside is practically zero...as based on kcchongnz graham net net intrinsic valuation it is 30 cents.

Calvin had stated that the immediate play is now on RETURN OF CAPITAL to Shareholders.... For details please ask Calvin as he has latest info on capital repayment & timing of capital repayment at his fingertips

Once the assets comprising of quoted & unquoted investment, loans earlier on given out to MUI group of companies are returned to PMC, PMC will have lots of liquid assets, PMC will invest in expansion of production facilities for existing & new food business .....the next play will then be focussed on RETURN FROM CAPITAL EMPLOYED...In that situation one can look at PE, EPS, DCF etc to arrive at Intrinsic Valuation of PMC business in $/share..but this is sometime in the future...

Hi Calvin,
Please advise info on the factories when u r free...

I am just thinking aloud...nowadays a lot of coffee consumer are drinking coffee kurang manis rather than tambah manis and some prefer just plain without milk n sugar...frankly I prefer much less sweetness in the chocolates as I find it too the milk choco too sweet....even the dark choco are also too sweet

Have PMC done any blind taste test for PMC chocolates with different sugar content to determine consumer preference ?

Does PMC plan to come out with mocca choco? Mocca choco drink or plain choco drink powder??

Hi Yangkwang,
I am indeed a TANGORIAN ...cool, contemporary,go getter, fun seeker, loves to tango & eat tango as well , likes life, be happy...

Frankly Tudorians sounds rather ancient, distant, pretentious,smacks of snobbishness ...aloofness...royalty wannabe but ain't royalty...

Good Morning to you Calvin,

Just want to know whether all the factories that you penned down are manufacturing same chocolates or certain factories manufacture certain product types ie. Tango, Tudor, crispy

SEMI DETACHED FACTORY IN BOOMING ISKANDAR- What product types does it manufacture? How big is this Semi Dee factory in sq feet??

FACTORY IN HONG KONG (HOTTEST MARKET) - how big is this factory in sq feet, what does it produce? tango, Tudor or Crispy??

FACTORY IN SHAH ALAM (NFI WITH ALL MANUFACTURING FACILITIES- Is this the biggest factory? how big is it in sq feet?

WAREHOUSE IN SHAH ALAM -How big is this warehouse in sq feet. can it cater for future export sales??

FACTORY IN PENANG - What does this factory produce? how big is this factory in sq feet??

Just wondering...PMC have so many factories...Is there cost savings for production staff??

PMC had sold off Woodlink property (office + warehouse I suppose)...Is PMC renting back the same premise? How big was this property in sq feet

Thank you and best regards,
tsurukame

kumar, what is "positing" ??

Mktwatch,
I took out the figures from Property sales and focus strictly on chocolate business operation as a going concern. R U an accountant by training?? I am not accounts base but I have an overview only. I am more focussed on business organization, its business strategy, business model, business structure to support strategy...

Q3 '13 Q3 '12 Variances from Q3'12
Revenue 18,907 21,804 (-13.29%)
Gross Profit 6,130 8,841 (-30.66%)
Gross Profit % 32.42% 40.55%
Profit b4 Tax -142 1,686 (-108.4%)
Profit b4 Tax% -0.75% 7.73%

YTDQ3'13 YTDQ3'12 Variances from YTD Q3'12
Revenue 56,390 58,441 (-3.5%)
Gross Profit 19,376 21,176 (-8.5%)
Gross Profit % 34.36% 36.23%
Profit b4 Tax -101 1,207 (-108.4%)
Profit b4 Tax % -0.18% 2.07%

If ones look at YTD revenue figures, Calvin mentioned that this year PMC cut off production to OEMs--> revenue dropped by -3.5% vs YTD 2012 but we cannot determine how much was the ssales to OEM in ytd 2012 and ytd 2013. It will be fantastic if calvin can advise.

This year the YTD profit figures is about breakeven level as Calvin had explained that PMC invest in market share tactical strategy

Calvin,
It will be good if you advise what was the YTD sales to OEMS last year 2012 and whether PMC has any sales to OEM for YTD 2013...With these figures we can determine whether there is indeed revenue growth through PMC market share strategy..

Thank you and have a good restful night.

I will ride the uptrend as long as uptrend is intact...

Good observation & question mktwatch...if it is by 3rd party company...then there will be licensing fee paid by NFI ...

Calvin Tan, Thanks for the advise...That is a well thought out strategy to invest in more food related business and gradually raise prices with increasing market share..

So i3 investors...Calvin had outlined a very good strategy for growth in revenue, EBIT and also Dividend Yield for the future years...It is a very sound strategy and most important PMC has significant cash backing to fund its future expansion...

Calvin Tan,
Thanks for the clarification on the latest Quarterly performance but frankly I am rather concern on when will the chocolate business produces good results i.e good top line growth supported by good bottom line growth.

All i3 shareholders will be very pleased if more hidden assets are unlocked which immediately improves the P&L & BS and more importantly significant cash increase strengthens the Balance Sheet and this increases the value of the Graham net net valuation of PMC which means higher intrinsic value of PMC shares as you had said there's plenty of hidden assets being unlocked and converted into CASH. now evry shareholder is excited about getting the cash payout!!!

The Q3 financial results on the surface is very good but as a shareholder, I am very concerned that there is loss from the ordinary business of selling Tango, Tudor and Crispy chocolates...and the performance this year in selling chocolates is worse than last year performance based on the reported figures as I understand that this year PMC completely cut off the OEM business...Is that true calvin??

As a shareholder I want to ask you as follows:

"When will the chocolate business show good results? What time frame are you looking at in buying market share?"

I am asking you this as if losses continue on a long term basis, it will affect future cash flows and also affect future CASH position of PMC after all hidden assets had been unlocked. In that case the intrinsic valuation of PMC will deteriorate and so will its future share price performance...

I agree with the short term tactical strategy to buy market share but am concerned that this short term strategy may becomes very long term ...So I just want to ask you again...

"When will the chocolate business start to show good results?"

Good evening Calvin Tan,

Please find below a Quick Review of Performance for Chocolate operations only.

Q3 '13 Q3 '12 Variances from Q3'12
Revenue 18,907 21,804 (-13.29%)
Gross Profit 6,130 8,841 (-30.66%)
Gross Profit % 32.42% 40.55%
Profit b4 Tax -142 1,686 (-108.4%)
Profit b4 Tax % -0.75% 7.73%

YTDQ3'13 YTDQ3'12 Variances from YTD Q3'12
Revenue 56,390 58,441 (-3.5%)
Gross Profit 19,376 21,176 (-8.5%)
Gross Profit % 34.36% 36.23%
Profit b4 Tax -101 1,207 ((-108.4%)
Profit b4 Tax % -0.18% 2.07%

Observation:
Revenue is trending down at rapid rate in Q3..Down trend in revenue seems to be accelerating in Q3'13. overall YTD Q3 '13 is below YTD Q3'12 by -3.5%...This is not positive as Total revenue for YTD 2013 is lower than YTD last year--> decrease in Top line revenue is a danger signal

Gross profit as % of Sales showed decreasing trend to 32.42% whereas YTD Gross Profit '13 is lower than YTD'12 figures. The decreasing trend in gross profits is a serious concern

Gross profit before tax is very low and is negative for Q3'13 and YTD'13..Negative profits if continued is a very serious concern...

CONCERNS OF PMCORP SHAREHOLDERS: Decreasing Revenue and Negative gross profit is a serious indicator and raises serious concerns on the sustainability of the chocolate business in the future. PMCorp management is best advised to perform a critical review of its current business model and put forth recovery action plans to improve top line and bottom line growth.

As a trader, yes it is difficult to predict price movement....I don't trade...
As a fundamentalist, you look at current fundamentals, do research and decide for yourself based on upcoming scenario whether will the fundamental for KNM improve with time...
My take is ...yes the fundamental will improve as it cannot get any worse than now...and current share price is now bullish after years of downtrend...So the decision is really very objectively SIMPLE & LOGICAL...NO NEED EMOTIONS..THROW EMOTIONS AWAY..

Never fall in love with any stocks including KNM...Just be focussed on searching for objective facts to verify whether the fundamentals of the stock is improving or deteriorating ..if fundamental improving... Just hold...if fundamental is deteriorating...Just sell.

Vsmile,
No need strong heart to buy KNM or any other stocks...
Just use objective facts and do objective technical & fundamental analysis and these analysis MUST BE DEVOID of any subjective emotions......Set up a system to buy, hold or sell...that is all that is required...very simple...and act fast on system info whether sell, hold or buy further..

Hi kawan kawan,

Every stock in BURSA has its own PERSONALITY...Some are slow and steady, some are so stagnant that you find absolutely boring, some are fidgety...Cant decide whether to go up or go down, some sleep for years, some are real teasers but you get no where, Some tease you and you give money to the teaser, some are slow initially but on news become fast n furious....

KNM has the personality to be fast n furious once any good news breaks out...so better to long KNM as the fundamentals will get better over time...

Hi kawan kawan,
Let us be objective and look at the real fact on KNM closing price. Since KNM reversed downtrend to UPTREND on last monday, Nov 11 2013. KNM had closed BULLISH every day since Nov 11 2013.

Based on current price movement, Today will be the 7th day KNM closed bullish consecutively after it turned BULLISH after so many years of downtrend...just look at the facts objectively and decide on your own objective analysis based on these facts...OK???

Hi Kawan kawan,
How r u feeling now? Feeling GOOOOD...yeah...KNM makes me feel real GOOOOOD now...

Merzman,
Selling the entire MAS company to the Highest WINNING BIDDER is the best way forward...Let the new shareholder take all the risk...Decision is so simple...just make the decision to SELL MAS....I heard Syed Mokhtar wanted to take over but wants govt to guarantee on fuel price for many years...this shows Syed Mokhtar is not confident of turning MAS around and needs govt fuel price support...

Let others who have better creative ideas, better vision, supreme confidence take over and turnaround MAS...

Frankly it is not impossible nor extremely difficult to turnaround MAS.... just have to relook at current business model, re-tweak it and wow...MAS soars into the blue sky with profits!!!

merzman,
All it takes is the Govt and Khazanah to announce that it is inviting tenders from both local and international companies to bid for mas share...hope gets you no where...concrete positive actions will deliver the results..