economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/vistara-airasia-india-unlikely-to-get-nod-for-cat-iiib-operations/articleshow/48642461.cms

The dow free fall in friday...

Oil up, RM up, then aa will up

Buy when RM appreciated

See how low hevea can go - 2009

One example for crazy is hevea...

Waith for crazy...

Buy when crazy...

Stock market - crazy low , crazy high...

But sell aa is true decision...

Wellington management got $904 billion assets, they don't cara how low aa can go...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wellington_Management_Company

Rm & oil price - positive correlation

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20150821/fin151630.asp

http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20150821/fin105827.asp

Now 4.18

Only buy aa when ringgit turn north...

MORE PAIN IN Q3

in q3, aa will feel the pain...

20/8/2015 - $1.90 (hedged) + $1.46 (Spot)
assume fuel price collapse in near future
20/10/2015 - $1.90 (hedged) + $1.20 (assume collapse in price)
then average
20/8/2015 - (1.9+1.46)/2 =$1.68, spot price $1.46, loss $0.22 PER GALLON
20/10/2015 - (1.9+1.2)/2 =$1.55, spot(assume) $1.20, loss $0.35 per gallon
so my Conclusion for aa @2015
The more drop in fuel price, the more drop in ringgit value, the most MATI for all aa shareholders

in q3, aa will feel the pain...

U.S. Gulf Coast Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Gallon)

Week Of Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
2015 Mar-30 to Apr- 3 1.591 1.567 1.598 1.544

2015 Apr- 6 to Apr-10 1.614 1.639 1.568 1.603 1.639
2015 Apr-13 to Apr-17 1.655 1.679 1.747 1.777 1.760
2015 Apr-20 to Apr-24 1.741 1.719 1.739 1.779 1.777
2015 Apr-27 to May- 1 1.764 1.774 1.796 1.835 1.860
2015 May- 4 to May- 8 1.867 1.907 1.904 1.865 1.860

2015 May-11 to May-15 1.855 1.883 1.889 1.896 1.889
2015 May-18 to May-22 1.871 1.799 1.805 1.860 1.846
2015 May-25 to May-29 1.794 1.732 1.766 1.842
2015 Jun- 1 to Jun- 5 1.815 1.820 1.764 1.716 1.711
2015 Jun- 8 to Jun-12 1.692 1.757 1.776 1.767 1.740

2015 Jun-15 to Jun-19 1.719 1.729 1.750 1.765 1.698
2015 Jun-22 to Jun-26 1.669 1.716 1.708 1.690 1.706
2015 Jun-29 to Jul- 3 1.678 1.727 1.685 1.695 1.695
2015 Jul- 6 to Jul-10 1.581 1.584 1.566 1.577 1.568
2015 Jul-13 to Jul-17 1.566 1.575 1.525 1.515 1.507

2015 Jul-20 to Jul-24 1.499 1.543 1.530 1.533 1.511
2015 Jul-27 to Jul-31 1.464 1.485 1.486 1.475 1.455
2015 Aug- 3 to Aug- 7 1.405 1.431 1.417 1.428 1.412
2015 Aug-10 to Aug-14 1.456

1 barrels = 42 us gallons
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/docs/unitswithpetro.cfm
spot price for jet fuel today = 42*1.46= $61.32
tf hedge at $80
1 us gallon now $1.46, tf hedge at $1.90476
the loss $0.44 per gallons times 4.1
aa make loss of rm1.804 per gallon jet fuel today, how many gallons aa used a day?

us gallom got 2 type dry and Liquid?

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=jet-fuel
Jet Fuel Daily Price
1.46
translate into barrel, the price is $45.99

If hedge at wrong side, all gone!

All broker firm recommend buy, please go hell

Tf hedge at 2.53 dollar per gallon, while the spot price was 1.46 dollar today...

But I hope tomorrow aa share price will go up!

Conclusion for aa @2015
The more drop in fuel price, the more drop in ringgit value, the most MATI for all aa shareholders
I own zero aa share!

ChecK the average jet fuel price from April to june
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EER_EPJK_PF4_RGC_DPG&f=D
And calculate the loss and change it to rm

Full investigation before buy aa!!!

www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EER_EPJK_PF4_RGC_DPG&f=D
Month by month

How many barrel used by aa per day, i don't know!

Loss per barrel = $34.01 per barrel or RM 139.78 per barrel!

Today slot price for jet fuel per barrel is $45.99, tony buy 60% of fuel at $80 per barrel

Jet fuel daily price
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=jet-fuel

gallon to barrel
https://www.google.com/search?sclient=tablet-gws&site=&source=hp&q=gallon+to+barrel&oq=gallon+to+barrel&gs_l=tablet-gws.3..35i39j0i67l2.7021.12947.0.13709.18.8.0.0.0.3.1826.8988.4-1j2j8-4.7.0....0...1c.1.64.tablet-gws..16.2.2350.0.YOsu6tDRmvg

www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/casinolike-fuel-hedges-to-hurt-airlines-in-oil-plunge-20141205-1213mt.html

Unless fuel go north above 80 dollar, then aa kena tembak! ...60% fuel hedged!!!

Hedging doesn’t always work

During the last sharp fall of spot market oil prices (FY 2008/09 and related to the GFC), many airlines reported huge hedging losses (on paper) - for example Cathay Pacific (-$974m), Air China (-$994m) and Emirates (-$428m). More recently Delta Air Lines reported a US$1.2 billion charge for mark-to-market adjustments on its fuel hedges in 2014. As a result many airlines, including British Airways and Air France, scaled back their hedging for a while, and others stopped hedging altogether.

China’s government went one step further by banning all its airlines from fuel hedging. This means they are now in the best position to reduce international fares, but may pay down the track through full and immediate exposure to future fuel price increases.

Other airlines will report similar paper losses but will at the same time benefit from the fuel price drop as not all of their requirements are hedged and those that are hedged are often designed to cap losses both ways.

To determine whether airlines speculate with the fuel price requires in depth analysis on the types of fuel hedge instruments they use.

theconversation.com/explainer-fuel-hedging-and-its-impact-on-airlines-and-airfares-36773

www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsbusiness.php?id=1162717

If fuel @ 200 dollar, then aa gain 120 and times 4

Go Google hedge, and lesen what is hedge!

Revenue received in ringgit, are u using dollar to buy aa ticket?

Aa hedged the fuel past year! Only god will know the trend of fuel price! Only if fuel price go north above 80 dollar, then aa make gain!

Tp @.5, will buy above RM1, if ringgit go north

Aa used 80 dollar to buy fuel(60%), compare to market price!

If fuel drop to 10 dollar, the more aa suffer! Aa buy fuel at 10 dollar, Malindo & MAS also at 10 dollar!

Company capital structure also got problem, bulk of dollar loan!

60% fuel hedged at $80 this year, u think aa will benefit from low fuel price and not forget fuel traded in dollar, aa revenue in rinngit... Still zZzZzZ

shadow ... Forex Loss!