lme explode up - 2,138.

tips frm al lme mkt, considerably short positions now, any week now lme price will fly. china production uncertain, now holding back is still trade wars fears but mkt is beginning to tire of these news and realise tht there is major disruptions to al mkt. if lme price hits back 2,300 - pmetal will trend 5.50 - 6.00

dont take profit yeah, 6 months trajectory promising to rm5.50

push on tues and fri, same trajectory.

settled on 4.70, still same pathway for next two weeks.

last min rush to 4.80

in next two weeks. expected great result, yoy and qoq

its not even profit taking, its acquiring mode before it continue to shoot up next week. hold on yr pants.

aiks reach my tp 4.80 too fast. *shake head*

tips : this is the last week to buy. don't wait till the week of qtr news to come, it will shoot up to 5.20. this week will end 4.80. and trend towards 5.20 on 16-aug

incoming qtr results..positive yes yes

calculation wise easy, avg lme price Jan - Mar ~ $2140. Avg lme price Apr - June ~ $2250. that is an avg increase of $100/mt. next 3 qtr results should be very promising. who buys for short term. look long term by end of year. RM5.50 back.

so many new users giving nonsense commentary since last week. these ppl only comment on stocks that appear on top gainers/losers stock. take no note of users that do not actively follow a stock as they dont understand stock fundamentals and financials.

this fact is already known by research house and fund managers. spooking tactic to scare investors like those in these forums who know zilch abt aluminium industry and pmab core business. with this press release, straight rebound

eps '15 - 10.48, eps '16 - 13.22, eps '17 - 16.13
there is a 20%++ yoy increase in eps, at this rate eps '18 would prob hit 19.00. but dps remains low because the bulk of the money is being reinvested into the business in the form of m&a (carbon anode) and business takeovers (al rod maker). total pbt for '17 is at 819m but div payout has only been at 230m. this means that pmab is cash-rich atm, this means further investment into value-added product makers (al packaging & foil, al sheets & plates). due to pmab focus over last few years in upstream market (producing ingots, billets and now rods) there are so many opportunities for business expansion (especially with their cash rich situation now). *notice how acquisition of LUA is straight cash deal - no debt undertaken.

on another note, lme price has not crash (tariff or not) this means regardless pmab revenue will still remain strong as demand is holding up. selldown is to spook retail investors (maybe some US-based hedge funds). there is practically no reason to selldown a week before dividend payout.

additional listing of warrants shows confidence in the company, in reality it means that investors are willing to top up (investment) into the company. other signs cud be pointing to exceptional year end result and possible share-related announcement (bonus, split, or even *special dividend) i personally feel that special div may be on the cards - all these are not subjected to warrant holders.

its funny there's lack of comments when there's no share price movement. however heads up, there's another round of serious accumulation at this level, vol at 6m - this is a good sign. there's a flat round of no price movement before a boom. i expect fri to have some major movements (new high) as the last two rounds of gapping up has been on such days, used to be wed/thurs

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/capital-edge-best-call-awards-2017

given the cue on monday, mentioned abt pmetal hitting new milestone. barring al lme dropping, whispers are rhb target price will hit by this month. wont hit 6.00 though big resistance for that - will be highly dependant on year end result and dividend.

Back for another analysis, friday minimal movement as expected. tmrw first day of 2018, whispers are its going to be a wild day. reason: al price is holding steady at 2,275 (mkt performing even better than expected), fbm klci stocks to be heavily traded this week, everyone's flush with dividend now).

This week is going to hit milestone, take note.

Possible resting for fri, new year holidays, unless al one breaks 2,300, then there’s a chance for it to reach 5.50. Let’s have a look for tmrw. Regardless technical analysis have shown that pmetal is on another uptrend bull run.

aluminium broke 2,200 now at year high, last price at 2,230. if it exceeds 2,250 pmetal revenue expected to hit 2.5B per quarter, forecast 10B revenue for 2018. NP per quarter can be forecast to have an upside of 20% - similarly expected share price to have another 20% upside to hit expected TP of 6.00. Not kidding, atm it is undervalued when its price is at 6.00 in the next two months.

gapped up on fav day of wed and thurs. prediction was right. tmrw possibly another round to cross the new year on new highs.as long as al price holds steady at 2,200 more room to hit new highs.

lme al price has once again reach highs of 2,190 possibly breaching 2,200 and reaching 2,300. Christmas holidays now, even resting. Even so with new lme pricing, slight chance price will gap up on monday. if not, after new year, pmetal will onboard another bull run. as it is now a fbm klci index stock, the company may not embark on anymore share split or bonus issue and instead let its pricing run up to rm10 to match its new blue chip status.

8wpwtmt8 2 days ago when pmetal down, you were being very negative, now 2 days later when pmetal show upside, you become it’s happy supporter. I am extremely amused with your extreme 180 flip flop. For all investors, please learn to be patient, I once again stress stocks is not gambling, don’t go crazy when there is a bit of volatility.

50m converted was done by Tan Sri Koon, with his shareholding projected dividend income is 21m. Pls ChloeTai, rest your case alrdy, it has no logic anymore. TS Koon do not need to sell his holdings. Do not know what your intention is, but i dont think you can achieve yr "hope" of the share price retracing at 4.60. That has passed alrdy, two weeks ago, we (prob just tianjin n telus) has been advising to buy, you missed it - too bad. Now this minor retracement, you want to get in the game go make some addition. Don't hope for below RM5

pls read my previous post abt special dividend eoy + possible share split. conversion shows huge confidence, in that the investor is pouring in RM19MIO to convert - jangan ingat ppl convert utk jual share dear, fund sudah ada byk shares utk jual, tak perlu convert utk jual besar besaran.

i can only deduce two things:
1) company announcement eoy regarding to share capital/dividend
2) there is huge demand from overseas investors and local funds have to prepare to meet demand. of course, again these kind of deals won't be done on OMO. TQ.

once again, i see ppl talking EPS and PE ratios. yes good analytical formulaes, but throwing out numbers without analysis is useless. at 5.2, PE = ~30 is it exp? (maybe), so why didnt you buy it at RM4.60-4.70 when PE = ~26. why are u calculating PE based on Q3 numbers, how about u think abt the "prospective" earnings in Q4. when Q4 numbers release, you think PE = 30 will remain? how abt full year 2018 earnings, NP projected to be at least 800m, PE still at 30?

EPS 4.14 what does this number mean to you, as investor i only care abt dps. i still remain optimistic that pmetal eoy announce special div, 1.5c + 1.5c bringing whole yr to 7.5c. fair value to old investors (prior to bonus).

rest of information, can refer to long analysis by tianjin.

The reason why index funds can't buy outside index stocks because its under their fund "convenant" and policy - due to asset class risk assessment, performance volatility, etc. in layman terms, like unit trusts, they have alrdy listed what asset class the fund is alrdy investing.

As to why FF are buying at 5.20, well to rebalance their portfolio - they are not buying your average 100 lots/200 lots, they are billion dollar funds buying 1k/2k lots. who do they contact? of course the local investment funds/banks. they are not going to buy it at OMO, and hence the agreed price. hence the volume.

Haha that comment was directed towards the ‘shortsighted’ comment. Less on mamakspecial, but seems like your feelings took a hit, maybe somehow you assumed that comment was aimed at you. So much for the bigger man advise, and I think I also agreed with tianjin in my previous comment. Dont und why ppl are so sensitive.

why u all bash when someone decides to dispose, @tianjin is right it's his invt decision, every one of us will have to realise profit one day, just at what price will you do it. his holdings won't be enough to affect share price, neither are any of you. those are the substantial shareholders and fund managers.

thanks also @telusandsuci everyone's aim is to profit, the forum is for us to share info and knowledge. yes agree on new highs for next feb CNY for year end result - very encouraging signs.

for these two weeks, i can only say accumulation at 5.20 for this kind of volume, no joke - was expecting new highs this week but selling resistance abit much (prob big funds rebalancing their portfolio to newer foreign funds etc). will expect strong momentum going for next two weeks.

blue chip means you are included in the country's index. for msia, klci means top 30 by mkt cap.

drop 5c is so much?? your first time trading stocks? this is range bound trading, you havent seen what is real downtrend movements i.e dropped 30c. as a lesson, again i see huge volume means further accumulation at 5.00 - 5.10. in a few hours you will see what is a real breakout. sad for investors who got nervous with the share price movement and dump their holdings.

http://mypf.my/investing/equities/bursa100/
this website has alrdy included pmetal n hartalega

alrdy called it since monday, little tip i heard, pmetal will hit all-time new high this week.

good volume, obvious sign of accumulation, breakout next few days. keeps your pants up bois.

this week will back to 5.20, inclusion in klci massive boost. take note.

4.80 now, slowly creeping up - may hit 5.00 again

@vimediac your comment really *shake head. correction mode alrdy past, selling pressure was last two weeks. now is consolidation phase. pls look at volume last two days, 14m n 16m range bound 4.65 - 4.85 (avg). some ppl see alot of selling (just bcuz price doesnt go up), i see someone stocking up alot at this range.
reason being :
1) for dividend
2) for another round of uptrend in dec

there's still three more weeks till ex-date, why wanna rush to go above 5. investing in stockmarket is not gambling. dont expect you buy stock ytd, tmrw it will go up by 20c/30c.

really the comments here sometimes pretty meaningless @rlch @pakatan_harapan2

for @salman, if you own 1k shares you get 1k * 0.015 = RM 15.

@happy123, profitability will depend on cost saving measures - transportation cost/pre-baked carbon anodes cost. will it translate 15% directly? prob not, im just assuming stuff.
but what happens there are further news coming abt?
-china further cuts down al production
-announcement of special div
-pmetal included in klci

Please look at LME al price from 30/6/17 - 30/9/17.
30/6/17 - 1,930.25
31/7/17 - 1,916.50
30/8/17 - 2,123.50
30/9/17 - 2,109.50
For abt half the qtr, the LME wasn't even at its peak. Not to mention, commodity companies trade in futures, which mean the rev earned for this qtr was based on previous futures contract.

From 1/10/17 - now, LME hovering around 2,100 avg CONSTANT. final year result, expect to see q-o-q (15% based off avg LME price, y-o-y 22%). RM4.80 with 15% upside, TP = RM5.50

converted can mean higher dividend/share split/bonus issue. looks like another corporate exercise end of year

pmetal price now basically profit taking + correction (correlating to al price). for some reason , everyone keeps ignoring lme al price movement. wait for Q3 results, and dividend announcemnet, possibly share split/bonus issue - and another uptrend in al price : tp 5.50 pre bonus in dec
https://aluminiuminsider.com/better-aluminium-market-increased-operational-efficiency-yield-stellar-bottom-line-rusal-q3/

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2120636/how-chinas-pollution-clean-driving-prices-shoppers

dear @paktua73, although i support yr optimism on pmetal, please don't spam the forum with random words, its disruptive to the new investors trying to learn.
for others, reason why pmetal drop, very simple - go look at aluminium price + futures ( has dropped $80 ), price correction, and mkt sentiment.
reasons why it will bounce back next week, q3 results + dividend announcement + rebound on oversold position.
digest these facts, make own decision.

trapping small time investors to panic sell, able to see big funds are collecting at this price, sell queue all queue at 10, 20 lots - buy queue come at 50, 100 lots.

No matter who the investor is, the single market rule applies: you can never time the market. No one knows for sure when is the peak of this bull run. For all new investors coming on to this counter today, let me give you a brief recap of my weeks' investment.

Two week ago, I top upped my investment (I consider this a seperate investment portfolio) at 4.00 into pmetal. Within two week, I have already hit 25% return. I disposed one third of this at 5.00 today, but it hit a high of 5.11. Is this an investment mistake, i believe no - its just smart investing strategy - i locked in 25% for 1/3 and continue to let the rest of the portfolio run.

Let me give a brief advice, given that since the start of this surge, the T+3 has passed and the pmetal share price has continue to surge, this is a massive indication its not just a pump and dump strat from traders but more of a serious investment from major funds (note EPF had bought 70k stocks last two months). my 2 cents here, 5.00 is high? I thought 4.00 was high previously. try saying 5.00 is high when the stock is 6.00.

@Ricky Yeo Just like to say, I understand your point of view. It's very simple, these discussions from both sides are good but regardless for you, its for a slightly different reason.

The main qualms that you have is largely dependent on your INVESTING STRATEGY. you are not willing to value the company at its current price, thats fair (just basic demand supply model). you think that the LME AL price upward trend is unsustainable, yes its true in trading/investing ntg is set in stone. you think that the mkts are overvaluing pmetal , possibly - given recent price surges.

what i don't understand is, which company is not subjected to market conditions and global prices. airasia depends on travel demand, competitive pricing, margin compression ; banking depends on loan performance, low deposit cost, high revenue stream ; every company is subjected to an external factor - commodity stocks are no different (commodity price, raw material cost, cost efficiency). your opinion doesnt really dissolve anything other than the FUNDAMENTALS of pmetal have not yet convinced you to enter the market at this price.

Let me express this time, what are the fundamentals and not speculative factors :
1) pmetal is the largest aluminium smelter in south east asia, with capacity of more about 80m-100m tonnes per year with a globally competitive cost structure (you have to und more on how smleting industry works, how pmetal have secured a 20 yr cheap electricity deal)

2) pmetal gearing has dropped from 1.3x to approx 1.0x. for a high capex industry this gearing ratio is considered VERY low. your second point on funding. it seems you have not been following pmetal for too long. this is not a NEW funding exercise to fund their capital expenses, this exercise took place 5 years back when they are building their phase 3 samalaju/bintulu plants. the USD note exercise is merely a COST restructuring exercise, to re service their previous loans (lay man version: they borrowed 5.5% last time, eg, now they reservice at 4.8%) - very easy that is a 0.7% per annum cost saving on a USD400m=RM1.6B loan, even a new investor can calculate that is a RM12 mil cost saving already.

3) though manufacturing is a high capex industry, the case cant be said for pmetal. they have alrdy consistently embark upon cost saving strategies :
-low electricity prices
-construction of conveyer belt to save on transportation cost
-economies of scale (maximum capacity of 100% from all 3 smelting companies)

4) management team has also indicated they will be venturing upstream to higher valued items, such as producing billets (not just ingots) - a new revenue stream

The pricing of a share price is not just the indication of the "current value" or "fair value" of the company. What is supporting the current bullish run of PMETAL is the "EXPECTED VALUE" of the company and the prospective performance. For every investor, their main aim is to enter into the market BEFORE the company's share price has reached its "fair value". Yes, EV is very steep at 20x but that's just basing the fact on previous quarterly revenue and profit, not based on upcoming qtr results.

What is driving this bull run is two things, revenue growth and profit growth:
1) Revenue growth, very simple, LME alu prices are trending upwards, expected further inc - forecast 2018 : 2,200 pmt - 2,300 pmt . not only that, as with most company's hedging policy pmetal would have alrdy hedged their lme prices 6 mths prior (circa 2,000 - 2,100 pmt) and are now in line to further hedge their position at the current 2,150 levels.

2) Profit growth, pmetal to reduce cost through construction of the conveyer belt to Samalaju port , decreasing transportation cost . we find they have also reduced their interest cost by raising a USD400m bond (at a 9.5x oversubcription - this means global investors are willing to lend PMETAL a circa USD4 BIL in debt capital funding = RM 16 BIL = the current mkt cap). In layman terms, have u ever heard of a bank willing to lend you 100% of yr share value? This is a major sign of confidence from NOT local inv but GLOBAL inv.
ps the bonds was raised at a very low rate of 4.8% ( for a B rating note) - major cost savings in terms of interest repayment esp. with it being in USD not MYR - another layer of natural hedging

3) Other factors, pmetal inclusion in FBM KLCI by end of year, rubber stamping their status as a BLUE CHIP company, meaning all major INDEX fund investors will be buying into PMETAL when they trade the index. thats the reason why its such a big deal to be included in the KLCI

4) Last factor (personal opinion) , possibility of special dividend/bonus issue - at the current valuation, a 0.15c DPS is too low in contrast to EPS. i will not be surprised to see announcement of special div of another 0.15 (on top of interim ) to bump up to full year 0.75c.
Bonus issue on the line too - at 5.00 we might see a 1:1 or even 2:5 - to bring it down to 2.5 / 2.00 price range. then giving a 0.1c dps = 4c full yr (roughly 2% div return at rm 2.00 value)

Is this analysis good enough?

low vol queue for sell also no one push up, really cny mood d