don't want to argue with stupid superbull …. if you not interest in KPSCB, go away … no need to show your stupidness here

2016 Q2 revenue 169.5 million (hari raya holidays in Q3, so Q2 revenue at high side)
2017 Q2 revenue 113.5 million (hari raya holidays in Q2, so Q2 revenue dropped)
2018 Q2 revenue 166.3 million (hari raya holidays in Q2, so Q2 revenue not at high side since sales volume dropped by pushed up by average selling price)

only stupid people not think out of the box ...

Final thing (Oct-Dec) to mention is final qtr normally is higher turnover among the year, because that period, paper and related paper product price will fetch better market price ….so next qtrs. should be better qtr result except this qtr.

This qtr revenue is good but dragged down by admin expenses ….. look forward following 2 better qtrs. Just hold another 3-6 months …...

EPS annualized will be at least 10 to 11, so using PE ratio of 10, is about 1.00 TP ….. even given 30% discount, TP: 70 cent still achievable, as long you hold till next qtrs. ….. today u sell you lose more ….

Paper price still in the uptrend and cost pass thru mechanism mean higher selling price will pass to customer and to be seen in next qtr ……

after lunch back ….. see the price …. alamat …. not able to sell ….

But from the report, there are following good thing:
(1) Closing inventories
as at 31/3/2018 74.5 million
as at 30/6/2018 84.6 million

This is increase about 13.6%, this mean next qtr result will produce similar to Qtr1 result ….

(2) Administrative expenses

There should be some one off expenses in this qtr that brought up admin expenses from 1.1 m to 2.1 m …. following qtr admin expenses might not be at that high side

Conclusion, next qtr will be better, don't sell it off because anything related to qtr or cyclical performance, need to base on annual performance.

Support level should be at 0.57 to 0.58 level ….. you cut now you lose more.

Last highest price is 0.88, today if stand at least 0.675, then will be good for further push up above 70 cents and toward 80 cents …. hold tight

Just concentrate on Ssteel counter, forgot other first, there are reasons, next qtr result the best is Ssteel ….

Anyway, my bias view. Don't trust anybody in the market even though I not charged 5,000 fee, some more free.

Trust me …. I gave you reason …

Next Qtr:
1) ASP increase a lot
2) Inventory increase a lot
3) Scrap materials cost maintain (there is one reason why scrap materials cost being maintained even cost increase in coming qtr ….. this one I disclose later)

Just buy …… For TA part, this is the bottom, will anytime boost up, 1TP will be 2.20 …..

Buy, because this few days are last accumulation phase that collects the stake between 1.70 - 1.90+ ….. anytime will eat up as fast as possible

I got MaybankC34 but cut loss on last Friday, actually wanna to hold till last trading day, think today or tomorrow, but then need to protect capital and cut loss since did not put more hope on the coming qtr result. Mana Tau, today really rose towards 10.00 TP for mother …. otherwise should earn some good money.

Sad, this MM damn tricky, always last push when CW nearly the end …..

Last call to buy below 1.80 ....

Stockraider ... i dont think 5000 fee is worth it and i dont need it .... i give free tips or free sharing in i3 without any charges ... person may also can earn from this ....

Yup 2019 onwards ... maybe people is earning on fees not earning from market .... but bursa got short sell for u to trade ...

This year maybe still can get some returns 30 to 60%... but next years even harder ....

Stockraider 500% return was his friend record in year 2017. To me 2018 or 2019 year onwards dont think there is another bull market for you to get 500 or even 3000% gain .... so to those small capital one 5k fee is damn expensive if cannot guarantee having exceleemt return of 30% at least. To me it is mot justified if not guaranteed on this.

5000 fee .... damn expensive ....

I charge 1000 ... anyone interest .... one year 4 picks ... 2 cw and 2 stock picks ...

Ok agreed in long time play ... haha not argue on this ..... gambling not good.

Gambling also can base on probability to win. I used probability to play 大小 轮盘。As long you not greedy and the you bet on those higher probability, chance of winning still have few.

Only cash account can buy CW ..... dont want talk further ... sayonara .... just nonsense sharing .... ignore me ...

I mean cw ..... cant remember ... lot of cw gives you few hundred % return ... like petron hengyuan hibiscus tnb maybank drbhcom fgv ambank alliance bank pbb just to name a few for cw .... even 1000% also got if price u brought only few cents ...

There are certain points i like it as might be i has certain trading way similar to his friend.

In year 2017 towards early of 2018 this was really best opportunity to earn the max during your lifetime especially in call warrants. Call warrants really boosted the return. Certain people even earned more than 500%, having 1500 to 2000% return. If not wrong ... lot of cw give u return of few hundred % in very short period. For non cw one ... i also traded huaan hibiscus hengyuan petron just to name a few .... the return also good but not like CW.

But CW in bull market is for you to earn the max .... when go to slowdown market ... buying prospect companies will be better and to trade less in CW. Trade is to trade in safer way and to earn max without burning down your capital. 2017 is for you to earn max in warrants .... 2018 is to earn in safer way with capital protection first.

Just nonsense sharing.

forex gain - evergreen is mainly doing export business based in USD, so USD appreciates will produce translation gain, and vice versa. Think is like this.

Only materials one might need you explain unless I find out the answer.

another thing not understand is forex gain ? under what circumstances that derive forex gains ? can explain ?

Need your expert advice since newbie on this, thanks.

still not understand, adhesive glue is it made from polymer/EVA/butadiene … this may extracted from crude oil … if crude oil stand at high price and USD stand at high price … how come the materials cost come down ?

Adhesive glue think is used for merging the particle board ….

Not understand, since not study this counter …. but recently particle board counters share price is up ...

但由于美金的走高, 原料成本 ( Glue 和 Log ) 在下半年开始下滑

Not understand on this one, can explain ?

there is one item on impairment losses … if without this one, then might be as what expected as Halite said … but might be I wrongly computed this impairment ….

everyone put so high ….

I expect only 1 cent or 2 cent only ...

Dont worry should be good result if not wrong ...

This couple days is still in accumulation phase ... once fantastic result out next week .... sky is the limit

Ssteel inventory:

Q3: 779,858,000
Q4 (this qtr): 842,202,000

So what you to expect Jul-Sep'18 revenue and profit with ASP about 2,550-2,650?

ASP price will up 15%
Sales volume will also up …..

Buy next Monday …. don't fight with me for buying up …. haha

still within my expectation for this qtr. close to my expectation and ASP also dropped by single digit. Need to study, will come back later.

4 steel companies if need to compare (please note that I will use PE ratio of 5 as this is to cater for 2020 the import tariff for China imported steel products to be removed and the mega project may start from 2020/2021 which may require imported steel products):

1) Ssteel: TP is about 2.50-3.00 with stable profit provided ASP is at high side.
2) Lionind: dragged by Parkson result ... hopefully not till 2020 …. but there is a potential ….
3) Masteel: current share price close to fair value price using PE ratio of 5, to me not attractive.
4) Annjoo: No comment.

So, please add into your watchlist for Ssteel. haha, just nonsense sharing since my personal view is bias.

So any dip on share price, quickly go to buy …… but at your own risk ….

For this coming qtr …. compared to previous qtr

ASP: dropped by 5-8%
Cost of graphite: dropped by 35-40%
Scrap iron: dropped by 10-12%

So the bottomline …. will still be a good profit ….. hopefully not wrong …….

Graphite Electrodes

(A) Introduction
The electric arc furnace method recycles used iron scrap by melting it in an electric arc furnace. It is the graphite electrodes inside the furnace that actually melt the iron. Graphite has high thermal conductivity and is very resistant to heat and impact. It also has low electrical resistance, which means it can conduct the large electrical currents needed to melt iron.

(B) Cost
There are 3 different type of graphite electrodes (UHP, HP and NP).

For case study, I will use HP (high performance/high power) graphite electrode to study the cost % for steel making. 1MT of steel making requires about 0.3-0.4% or 3-4kg of graphite electrodes.

HP graphite electrode cost:
At beginning of year 2018, it from about RMB79,000/MT rose to about RMB 119,000MT for Jan-Feb 2018 and then dropped to about RMB 69,000 during Apr-Jun 2018. So for this coming qtr the graphite electrodes cost is reduced as what I said in earlier post.
http://www.chinaccm.com/27/20180508/272102_4871802.shtml

I will use diameter about 400mm to 600mm for the case study.

So the cost of HP graphite electrodes is RMB 69,000/MT x 0.62 = MYR 42,780/MT for Apr to Jun 2018.

Assumes revenue for this coming qtr is about 850,000,000 and the average selling price is about MYR 2,400/MT, then the sales volume will be 354,000 MT or 354,000,000 kg.

I had used previous year corresponding qtr result to compare and this had come a conclusion that when selling price is about 1,900-2000/MT then this is only to cover about the cost of sales. So assume the COS point at 1,950/MT. So cost of sales will be around 354,000 MT x 1,950 = 690,300,000.

So what is the cost % of graphite electrodes used ?

354,000 MT requires 1,062 MT graphite electrodes (354,000 x 0.3%). The cost in graphite electrodes is 1,062MT x MYR 42,780 = 45,432,360

The % of graphite electrodes is 45,432,360 / 690,300,000 = 6.6%.

(3) Is this correlation of graphite electrodes cost versus ASP of steel products

In conclusion:
ASP: MYR 1,950 - 2,250
Graphite electrode cost % is about 2-3.5%

ASP: MYR 2,250 - 2,450
Graphite electrode cost % is about 5.5-7.5%

ASP: MYR 2,450 - 2,650
Graphite electrode cost % is about 9.5-11.5%

(4) Graphite electrodes cost trend

At current state, graphite cost will be around this level, but may inch higher towards year end or beginning of next year and this is in correlation to ASP of steel products.

WHAT I NEED TO SAY IS AS LONG ASP IS ABOUT 2,250 ABOVE THEN THERE IS A PROFIT WHEN SELLING PRICE IS ABOUT 2,550 AND ABOVE, THEN DAMN GOOD PROFIT FOR STEEL COMPANIES. BESIDES GRAPHITE ELECTRODES COST HAD BEEN REDUCED ABOUT 40% COMPARED TO 1ST QTR.

never do short sell before … this counter can short sell ?

Cash counter cannot short sell right ?

Last call for today ….

I also not yet found out .... Interest to know as well …..

Halite understand there is potential of Lionind, but don't neglect the forex translation losses for Parkson when MYR strengthen against CNY, for Jul to Aug, MYR appreciate a lot against CNY, next qtr result Parkson may also drag Lionind profits.

We need to aware if PRA (every qtr in losses) and PRGL (start from this qtr having losses and if CNY keep depreciate, there is forex losses), ended up impairment in investment is there.

Just highlight my view.

For this qtr, I estimate EPS is between 1 to 2.5 cent.

Superpanda and anyone, what EPS you expect for this coming qtr result ?

My TP 11.00 really coming …. geng ….. C29 already 0.34 …. earn lesser ...

Thanks Topglov I sold c29 at 0.325, 36.5% gain …. released my fund first.

All the best guys.

very bored this counter ….. no buying volume ….. sendiri syok …. haha

* it has tested 3 times the support during last couple weeks ….

below 1.80 still a good buy …….

For TA, 1.67 the lowest support that day is the support, it has tested 3 times to test the support between 1.60-1.68 level. If the support can hold well, and provided selling price of steel product is good and property/infra construction activities to support, price is should directional up.

For import tariff ended on 2020, I don't think it might end so soon, this may renew for another 3-5 years since Gvt having profit from tax from 2 portion - one from Steel company profit tax - Company tax 24% and import tariff on China steel products, so govt earn both side.

So, accumulate before it rise continuously.

Last call for Ssteel …. a real run will start tomorrow …. tomorrow will start from 2.00

Yup bad sentiment ... i also affected .... sad sad .... ssteel macam no support .... trade volume too thin ...

But hopefully tomorrow
1. Bursa index will inch higher and FF start buy back shares
2. After one day holiday .... people has clear mind and start to buy back steel counters since the cancellation of ECR not much affect on steel counters as the project may affect Alliance Steel company and certain company not supplied this cast iron
3. Steel selling price is still at high side

Ssteel as long result still within expectation and following results even can perform better .... wish share price to move towards 2.00 soon ..

Andy no money liao .... i topped up steel counter on that day .... need to sell off others then only can buy ....

If hold 1 more night should be hoseh tomorrow another few k to in pocket .... sad .... but already scare no gut to hold ... sad ... hsi money maker really control the movement ... when shanghai shenzhen up crazy dont want to up further till today holiday only crazy up ...

Sad ... otherwise got money to buy new handphone ... no choice ... still use nokia 3310 ...

dunno result will out today or after Haji …..

850,000 x 3% is 25,500
850,000 x 4.5% is 38,250

Maybe in between ….. as long better than last year then goo liao ….. haha

Buy on weakness

where sifu 2B new HSI blog ? …. want to start fresh in new blog …. no short form bit difficult to search ...

finally sold my HSI-C3O, hold quite number of days or week already …… sold at 0.32 … got RM2.1K profit ….