https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Goldman-Expect-Another-Bull-Run-In-Oil.html

When is good time to buy oil stock like Hibiscus if not when people are selling/scary?

Part-II

Dialog – this is consider “Public Bank” in oil industry, with strong income generated from Facility rental such as crude terminal and Rapid Pengerang, Oil storage terminal, Dialog also involved in the oil producing partnering with ROC oil Australia, so it is balance as when oil price is down, Storage business will make good money, when oil price is up, they will get more revenue from JV with ROC oil, they are consider solid with long term recurring income.

EATech – Similar to Icon/Alam, EATech has gone thru challenging years especially their first FPSO with HESS has got into serious delivery issue, which they are finalizing the settlement. Too many assets and not enough job.

Handal – Smallest amongst all, with focus on the crane business, therefore not so badly affected during the downturn, but recently with Wah Seong CEO acquired major share, it is expected something is cooking for this small company.

HengYuan – Downstream refinery, the best player when oil price is cheap, that is why HengYuan perform the best furing 2015-2017, as the oil price rising, the profit will be cut, and not great for next few years.

Hibisucs – successfully to secured North Sabah and Anasuria has transformed this lost making company into most exciting oil producer, with over 3500bopd from Anasuria and 16000bopd from North Sabah, zero debt, Hibiscus is the most exciting company position to benefit from the rising oil price considering the cost per bbl for both Anasuria and North Sabah is below $20.

Petra – Another company similar to EATech and Alam, have the most challenging past 2 years, and recent GE14 has dragged them further as been seen BN related company.

Reach – One of the few SPAC that survive the last 2 years battle, but still losing money for last few quarters, with challenging managing the KZ assets, more work to be done, the story in KZ is always murky and everyone is wondering.

Sumatec – like Reach, they have been operating Asset in KZ for last 6 years with no profit, and story always fishy with this company beside incurred more than 20 court cases with various companies, please refer to the announcement. Company to stay away.

Scomi – specialized in drilling fluid, but Scomi was too greedy and venture into Rail, Transportation, and losing lot of money in last few years, lack of leadership and poor business decision.

Uzma – the only company providing various services in oil field, with only one heavy asset for D18 Water Injection for 5 years contract, otherwise they are doing well with very diversified business to balance out.

T7Global – struggling to survive in oil/gas, finally diversify into railway with EPIC for the ERCL and also Aviation equipment manufacturing, but with the GE14 and ERCL to be cancelled, T7 will again find themselves into very mudding river to swim, even though they have quickly remove Zaid son out of Directorship.

In summary, as for those company with heavy assets such as Rig & Vessels, they will continue to struggling, to find job to support their debt repayment, especially many of them competing the same segment such as: Barakah, Alam, Icon, Perisai, Petra, EATech, while those with FPSO Yinson/Armada will do well with long term recurring business, Dialog will be strong solid due to their facilities rental income (Storage, Pengerang and TCOT), and Hibiscus will be the best bet for the industry, and Reach/Sumatec will have to convince KZ assets are real.

Best Pick: Hibiscus, Dialog, Yinson, Armada

Part-I

For those who are wondering which Oil/Gas stock to invest for 2H2018, here are some summary for your consideration. There are two type of companies involve in the oil and gas industry, Oil Producer (Oil Company like Petronas, Shell, BP, etc) or Service Company like Schlumberger, Halliburton, etc.

In Malaysia, most of the companies are services companies such as Barakah, Alam, Uzma, Deleum, Carimin, Icon, Alam, Perisai, etc, while Oil companies are: Hibiscus, Sumatec and Reach.

Oil price just gone thru a global crisis from 2015-2017, from $140/bbl drop to $30/bbl, and recovering since late 2017 to current level of $78/bbl in June-2018. The two years low oil price has led to global recession for the industry, many companies are struggle to stay alive, especially services company who rely on contract from Oil company. For those with heavy assets that need to serve the loan repayment, it will be most painful, many has write off with hundreds of millions impairment. Only those light in asset will able to sustain thru this difficult period. We will go thru some basic understanding who are those company likely to perform better in next 6-12 months.

During the bad times, oil companies reduce all the high Capex project and drilling operations, while maintaining the production operations, for those company rely on the Construction, Drilling, Pipe laying, will suffer the most, while those company focusing on the production enhancement will continue to get job. Therefore company with Vessel, Rig, Barge will be the one hit badly due to job cancellation and termination, but worst they have to continue to serve the high debt repayment. Here are some short brief on each of them.

Barakah – Specialized in the pipeline laying and Hookup commissioning, Pipeline maintenance. Their biggest asset which is Kota Laksamana Pipelay barge is dragging them under, due to high debt repayment, while there is no much pipe laying job for the last few years. The prospect is challenging.

Alam – Another company rely on the vessel and offshore construction and commissioning work, therefore Alam was badly hit due to low asset utilization, and high debt repayment, their survival will continuously challenging, considering there are few players in the same segment such as Icon.

Icon - Another company rely on the vessel and offshore construction and commissioning work, therefore was badly hit due to low asset utilization, and high debt repayment, their survival will continuously challenging, considering there are few players in the same segment such as Alam

Valesto – Formerly UMW Oil, Drilling Rig players, they are suffering for the same, except they are funded by PNB and UMW which allow them to issue new share recently to raised RM1.8Bil to sustain their debt, and also recently oil price picking up, they manage to get a few more rigs to work, which improve their asset utilization higher.

Perisai - another rig company, unfortunately they do not have a big brother behind like Valesto, and the impairment continue to bleeding them to death, they also overly aggressive during last 2 years to build more rigs but later terminated with big impairment and losses, currently PN17, and will have hard time to revive thru, especially their ongoing court case with their parent company, which is also file for Chapter11., Emas Offshore & Ezra.

Armada – Bumi Armada is also asset heavy, except most of them are on long term lease, Bumi is global FPSO players, FPSO will provide a long term recurring income, but unfortunately they have another division which is OSV, offshore Support Vessel like Alam and Icon, which drag them with heavy impairment, after all those impairment, Bumi is finally in better shape to move forward. They will have good constant recurring income as long as the FPSO is not early termination, FPSO is used by oil company to produce oil without pipeline facilities, and therefore termination is unlikely except when the oil field suddenly is not capable to produce as per forecast/estimation.

Yinson – Like Bumi but better shape without the OSV business to impact their bottom line, therefore Yinson will continue to generate good income and profit for many years to come, as long as they can ensure high utilization on the assets, they will be in bad shape if they are unable to renew the FPSO contract or finding other tenant for the spare capacity.

Carimin – was mainly in the manpower supply topside maintenance, they have been in the red for many quarters, last quarter they manage to secure the long term umbrella contract for the topside maintenance and commissioning which will support them forward if they can get jobs.

To be continue Part-II

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Goldman-The-Oil-Price-Rally-Isnt-Over-Yet.html

Good time to top up, TP2.0

What happened to Reach until now still no profit OMG! Sorry for those shareholder kene con by KZ mafia again. Just like Sumatec with KZ asset. :((

Cantik lah mai mai esok 1.1 up up...

Tomorrow above 1 lai lai..

What is Negative good will? Go Google and read. That is 112Mil for 5 Quarter, we can expect NS to contribute RM25Mil min each Quarter moving forward, combined with AS easily RM50Mil PAT/Quarter, that is RM200Mil/year work out EPS 0.13, so next quarter will show the real undisputed number. Fund manager will soon find the hidden treasure.

where are taikbabi, Orange, Alex, Orlando.. we miss them sooo much..

OK market is closing, shut down PC go to party.. come back Wed, I granti QR surely come out on Wed. LOL

Go sleep..monday will be great week! Source Bomoh Dua Kelapa!

you check after market closed lah, they can not annouce before market closed or they have to suspend the counter. Wait for this evening, if nothing, obviously next week is the last week. :((

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10156398088114140&id=633309139
Can trust this guy or not?

Ya ya ya ya ya ya... All correct..

Hope the result will be out today, so one day tomorrow trading if out tomorrow too late have to bear the Trump Bipolar Weekend.. LOL

if you look at the past 2 years Hibiscus QR date, it ranging from 21 - 29, so your guess please. LOL

Rosmah tak puasa ko? Apa daa..muntah ..

Haha I can't stand to see TH Chairman and 1MDB CEO all talk kok loud before GE14 . Obviously Najib knows how to pick who to spin for him. :)

YB Rosmah , Scam Matermind by Chinese, Operations by Indian, cheering by Umno..Hahaha..

No point announce today bloody market.. timing is not right. Why LGE go telling we are RM1Trillion debt, Trump also bipolar kick in..wtf!

Tomorrow is not 24/5, better ask Dato Tuck. Source: Bomoh Dua Kelapa.

Orange88 come in share price drop very powerful..LOL

TP1.45 easily broken when the QR is out, keep your share for now!

Buy fast TA is pointing to superbull soon!

@Derilock, excellent information there thanks for sharing.

Just another 1 more week, we can expect the explosion QR out, first time to combine NS 2017(all year) + 2018Q1 + 2018ASQ1 > what can you expect for this QR? with oil price already $78 now. Buy now before too late.

PE10 should be 1.75. hold your share.

Buy more..more good news coming. :)

Bullish investors have a lock on the oil market, putting $100 a barrel in play, market veteran says - https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/13/oil-could-hit-100-a-barrel-tom-kloza-says.html

https://www.insider.co.uk/company-results-forecasts/royal-dutch-shell-shares-profits-12429927

Explosive earning reports for most oil companies recently, Hibiscus shall be the next one. So buy more on dip. 30 days counting.

$20MIl to rescue from PN17.. huat ahhh

what happened to DNEX? good business,GE14 counters, but drop never ending..

oil price is up, but oil stock are down, sentiment still bad due to election coming, global concerns, plus the Short Selling system, but once those settled, the counters will reverse. I have confidence and QR next month will change the whole future prospect of Hibisucs moving forward. Just another 30 days!

that is Hibiscus.. Oil price up.. share drop.. same trend for last 2 years. It tells you how much the mafia behind the games, and it will rocket when you are all dead! LOL

Good show today more to come.

BUY, QR result will surely meletup ketup...oil price 73, NS already kicked in, One time gain will be massive .. don't miss the boat! Apr-Jul, US is high consumption, Invetory storage always lowest during this time for last 10 years!

Report from my Dec-17 post:

Stock: [HIBISCS]: HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD

Dec 27, 2017 07:24 PM | Report Abuse

Hibiscus Valuation (Rough Estimation)

Anasuria, Total 12,000bopd, net to Hibiscus 3,500bopd. Cost per bbl = $18.
Anasuria Revenue = 3500 x 360 x (60-18) x 4 = RM211,680,000

North Sabah, average 16,000bopd, PSC 25/75, 20% Loyalty, 80% Cost Recovery,
North Sabah Revenue = 16500 x 360 x (60-12) x 4 x0.80x 0.25 = RM228,000,000

Previously reported monthly Admin/Finance cost = 10,000,000, assuming 30% of this now capture as cost recovery under NS PSC, therefore Annual Cost= 120,000,000 x 0.70 = RM84,000,000

Therefore PBT = 211 + 228 – 84 = RM355,000,000, Tax 25% > PAT = 266,000,000

EPS = 266,000,000/1,500,000,000 = 17sen, PE 10 = 1.70 or PE 20 = 3.4
International Oil companies: XOM, CHV, COP, average command PE 20.

Public Investment also estimate 2018 EPS 18.7sen. Fair value for Hibiscus should be 1.50 - 3.00.

http://ir.chartnexus.com/hibiscuspetroleum/download/pdf/media/analyst-...

Based on the share price movement last few days they must have derived a massive one time gain from NS 2017. From BIMB report NS average cost per bbl less than $20, estimation easily RM75-80Mil one off gain from 15,000bopd at $55/bbl for 15months period Jan 2017 - Mar 2018. That is going to be big boost on share price. The next QR should be 25th May.

Anything below 0.90 is cheap, same goes to WC anything below 0.35 is cheap sale. Wait until after the fund manager internal meeting and decision to come in next few days, the frenzy feeding will start! BUY!

So true, that day, before ex-date it was 0.92, ex-date drop to 0.85, everyone said adjusted so, that is 0.07 adjusted per share, 5 for 1, means, 5x0.07 = 0.35 that should be the warrant price if all equal, means, Mother 0.85, and warrant 0.35, then you are equal to 0.92 before ex-date. But now today, we have 0.82 and 0.27, that is big fkcu up, means, we are losing by 0.92-0.836 = 0.084. So, basically whoever sold before ex-date, is laughing kaw2 now, those who hold on to the mother and get the warrant today, is losing untl the pant wetie.. WTF! Congratulations to those sold before ex-date, you have not missed anything.. and to all of us that holding on, that is RM8,400 loss for every 100,000 share held. Now, that is the reality! Even with WC limit up 0.305, we are still losing till no panty left.. That is with oil price at all time high of $70! WTF %^)&%^*$#$%*^%(

Those guys sold before ex-date, now can come in wack cheap chip tip tick... all the way to bank!

@Dericlock, you live in Labuan or you are working for Hibiscus? even that information also you know.. better post the pictures those wearing the coverall, tomorrow sure rocket up kaw kaw.. LOL

maybe orange88 on the way to Batam naik boat isap cigar enjoy the Indon awek dandut disco while counting his profit today... LOL

Looks like the war between Orange and Thaik will push up the warrant tomorrow..yeahh keep it up!

ya ya... your calculation is correct! so definitey not worth it, I will sell my warrant for sure. I wonder if anyone will buy or not. why buy warrant to convert by paying RM1, when you can get the mother share cheap2 at 0.835, if lucky tomorrow can get 0.80 also.. LOL

It is likely to list the WR today or tomorrow.. just go have a coffee and come back.

From my earlier post: Feb 19, 2018 11:53 AM | Report Abuse

Hibiscus Valuation (Rough Estimation)
Anasuria, Total 12,000bopd, net to Hibiscus 3,500bopd. Cost per bbl = $18.
Anasuria Revenue = 3500 x 360 x (60-18) x 4 = RM211,680,000
North Sabah, average 16,000bopd, PSC 25/75, 20% Loyalty, 80% Cost Recovery,
North Sabah Revenue = 16500 x 360 x (60-12) x 4 x0.80x 0.25 = RM228,000,000

Previously reported monthly Admin/OPEX cost = 10,000,000, assuming 30% of this now capture as cost recovery under NS PSC, therefore Annual Cost= 120,000,000 x 0.70 = RM84,000,000

Therefore PBT = 211 + 228 – 84 = RM355,000,000, Tax 25% > PAT = 266,000,000

EPS = 266,000,000/1,500,000,000 = 17sen, PE 10 = 1.70 or PE 20 = 3.4

XOM, CHV, COP, average command PE 20.

normally in ex-date the mother share will get adjusted kaw kaw.. but today only 0.05/share adjusted, so it is going to be a good week come next monday when WR is traded. So, hold your share, do not let go to the sharks.

last call buy fast, less than 2 hours is your last chance, tomorrow adjustment down is nothing like the Warrant shot up to 0.50 on Friday!

Warrant expected to start trading in the range of 0.25-0.30, and since Warrant is cheper like those Call Warrant CA/CB/CC/CD, it provide good leverage with cheap entry, that means Warrant easily get push up. If the free warrant ratio is small, the mother share will get adjusted substantially, say 1 free warrant for every 2 share, but if the ratio is high, in this case 1 WR for every 5 share, the adjustment will be small.

One good example is Bahvest, they offered 1 WR for every 2 share, Mother was 0.85, exercise price 0.80, conversion 1to1, when warrant listed, it was traded at 0.25 on day1, so naturally, the 2 mother share will have to compensate the 0,25 given out, so, immediately mother drop to 0.65, but the net is square off, no gain/loss. because what you given out on mother is gain in the warrant. 6 months later today, Bahvest move from 0.65 to 1.1 today, the warrant has moved from 0.25 to 0.80. Yet Bahvest has been losing money for last 3 years continuously.

So, what can you expect from this high profile Hibiscus that generating great cash with NS expecting to close in next 2 weeks?You can make a guess base on history or speculation whichever you want, at the end it is the market force to decide. Good Luck!

You can not determine the listing price as it is given free, once listed it is up to the supply/demand, it could go straight to 0.25 and might shot up to 0.50 and maintain 0.5-0.70 range.. you guess is as good as the expert! So buy now to get the Free Warrant! Last chance!