nothing wrong , mr loh , but i think ah chong already very happy when he got it at low price , because he understand '' price is what you pay, value is what you get ''
man.. happy a nice day , today weather very nice, good for running practice? :p
fei mau, weather in NZ is always nice. eh, when you use this phrase of what price...value thingy, you must give credit to Ah Ren. If not that iafx fellow will ridicule you for "copied from other reports not made by u, then uses theory/formula which can be found on www, books, lastly add a bit of your emotion." But seriously the phrase you plagiarize from Ah Ren is very true. Just to add another one here: “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.” - Ben Graham, sifu of Ah Ren.
Anyway, I never ask anybody to buy any stock. I am sometimes a follower of this guy who said this below: “I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.” – Jesse Livermore
The major shareholder who refuses to do anything at first now realise that they have to do something. When profit keeps increasing that translate in real net cash inflow, the NTA will accelerate accodingly. Even a stupid fellow will tell you that share price will not stay there forever as this will attract the attention of big shark especially with the fact that Kfima is sitting with huge cash pile of RM250 million.
Once they shake out the weak holders, the show time is coming.
For those who wants to play contra, I can say good luck to you.
Again may target is RM2.80. You do not have to trust me.
When I enter the market, I want to make sure that I will make money for 100% sure. It might sound absurd but what is the point entering market when one even have no faith in one stock pick and the end of the day donate the hard earned $$$$$ to Mr.Market?
That is no short cut for that. One must do their own homework fisrt. With some "connection",discipline and little bit of luck, I believe everyone can do that.
Najib, is this what you are talking about, the corporate exercise? I actually simply speculated this may be the one 3-4 months ago.
Posted by kcchongnz > Sep 7, 2012 06:02 PM | Report Abuse X
What is the effect of a corporate exercise involving Kfima and Fimacorp? The following is just my speculation of the benefit of a possible privatization of Fimacorp by Kfima. For year ended 31 March 2012, Kfima made a net profit of RM116.5 m. After provision of profit for minority interest in the amount of RM35.6 m, the net profit attributed to the shareholders is 80.9 m. This works out to be an earnings per share of 30.5 sen. If Kfima takes FimaCorp private and pays off the minority shareholders with cash, then all earnings of RM116.5 m of Kfima will belong to the equity holders of Kfima. This will boost the earnings per share of Kfima to 44 sen, or 44% more. The PE ratio of Kfima will be reduced to only 4.8 with its closing price of 2.13 on 7/9/12. Isn't it dirt cheap for a company with great historical and potential future earnings and cash flows and healthy balance sheet. Of course Kfima would have to come out with a sum of cash to pay off the minority shareholders of FimaCorp. How much is involved? At the closing price of FimaCorp at RM6.15 on 7/9/12, its market capitalization is RM507 m. Hence Kfima has to come out with at least RM203 m to pay off the 40% minority shareholders in FimaCorp. Let us assume that Kfima pays a premium of 20%, or RM243 m. As at June 2012, Kfima has a net cash of 257 m. This means that Kfima can pay off the minority shareholders of Fimacorp at 20% above the market value of Fimacorp, and also pay off whatever debts now, Kfima is still in a net cash position. Shouldn’t Kfima’s share price rise by 44% at least from RM2.13 now to RM3.07 with the rise of EPS of the same magnitude? Of course it is not necessary, but it may. Investment is not so simple as arithmetic. Alas, it is just some market talk about this Kfima corporate exercise. There is no confirmation from the company so far. However, my discount cash flows analysis shows that even without the corporate exercise, Kfima at its present form, it’s intrinsic value is still substantially above this RM3.07 we are talking about.
KC ChongNZ, actually with the financial strengh of Kfima & Fima Corp, alot of things the major shareholder can do ...range from Privatisation,M&A and even Bonus Issues that retailer really love. They prefer not to do anything above but as I said the big shark will force them to do so something now.
NZ, I don't like privatization. Minor shareholders will be short-changed. For me, even if they pay RM3.00 per share, that may not be too good a deal. However, I will still take it, hehehe (or kikiki). Tony, I did not study Fimacorp. But does that affect the corporate exercise of Kfima?
KC ChongNZ, if the guided profit for Kfima for this year is RM80 million, what will be the impact to the NTA and net cash per share of the company. Even if I chop the profit half to RM40 million/year for next few years due to bad economy(very bad case scenario), one can calculate how much is the company worth.
NZ, when I do a reversed discount cash flows analysis of Kfima, the market is valuing Kfima with a contraction (not growth) of 8% per annum for the rest of its life. That is ridiculous, isn't that? Hey, I am not promoting the share here ah!
tonylim, i think that is not the case. I am not too sure of what i think below if it is right or not. But i will give a try here. Hope someone don't accuse me of BS and correct me if i am wrong. That is the spirit of sharing, isn't it? Hack, i am no accountant man. Kfima owns 60% of Fimacorp. Basir family is a major shareholder of Kfima. So if the corporate exercise is to pay off the other 40% shareholders of Fimacorp (Not the Basir family), Kfima has to fork out RM235m if they want to do it with cash only to do it. (Fimacorp share price at 5.59 on 4/1/13, market cap 520m, 20% premium, 520*40%*1.2). That seems to be not a problem as Kfima has RM265m cash in its book now. One of my favorite bloggers named David Koay just told me that this cash is actually in Fimacorp's book. But I think it should not be a problem. The accountant should know how to go about it; for example a special dividend by Fimacorp or something. With this exercise, Fimacorp will be sort of like taken private owned solely by Kfima, and Kfima earnings would be boosted up to say 44 sen per share. At RM1.96 at the close of yesterday's price, the PE ratio would be 4.5, damn cheap isn't it? The exercise can be done other ways like issuing of shares plus cash; take some loan or whatever but the intention is the same. Whether this will be carried out of not, or whether if the exercise would add value to the shareholders of Kfima, I don't know. But the market normally seems to react positively to this kind of thingy. But like I said, the financial performance of Kfima alone merits the investment in this stock. And to add my friend David said, "But rest assured, for long term, when they have such big amount of cash, there will be vultures waiting to take over FimaCorp or Kfima. Every year, there will be 30 sen per share addition to their net cash or net assets. The management has to do something with its cash sooner or later. When will it be I dunno." This also appears to be what Najib Zamry is talking about.
Yeah, forgot to quote what another blogger, Ben Gan said in his blog about this copy and paste below to add in some "emotion" to "hard sell" here(expecting wonderful comments again from that iafx fellow again). "Usual benefits of merger are economies of scale and elimination of inefficiencies etc etc. The merger would be good for the shares as well as FimaCorp shares are hardly traded, remains illiquid and trading at such low valuations, thus better to be taken off KLSE. On the other hand, KFima's or the merged entity's shares could have a larger share base to enhance liquidity when merged." The other thing is the major shareholders have been buying continuously, including some foreign funds (copy and paste what Najib said also). I always say, there is only one reason the insiders buy (unlike company buyback shares), that they know the shares are undervalued. Another "hard sell" here, hehehe (kikiki).
Najib Zamry and KC Chong, yes I totally agreed with you all that the major shareholder has to do something after having done analysis my self. Otherwise, their sharehoidings will be diluted. No way that the share price will maintain at this cheap level if NTA and net cash keeps increasing.
My dream of what Kfima is going to do. Pay off the minority shareholders of Fimacorp with cash. Recapitalize Kfima by borrowing some money. Pay a special dividend to Kfima shareholders, say RM1.00. The beauty of this corporate exercise is shareholders can get special dividend. EPS of Kfima increases by 44%, and hence the share price by 44%. The interesting thing is with this corporate exercise, it has no adverse effect on its still healthy balance sheet. At least the vultures won't be staring at its cash pike all the time and management risks hostile takeover. Dream mah, cannot meh?
kcchongnz you got the whole picture correct,I believe you have done your homework.By the way only wait for time and any down turn better for us, opportunity to collect more.If we can meet one day it will be good.
Posted by pradeep > Jan 5, 2013 10:02 PM | Report Abuse kcchongnz you got the whole picture correct,I believe you have done your homework.By the way only wait for time and any down turn better for us, opportunity to collect more.If we can meet one day it will be good.
OOOOii, Pradeep, that was a dream as I said. You know what is a dream or not? It is not that I "got the whole picture correct". It is not real. No , no, no. RM1 special dividend, go dream some more lah! Other points mentioned are just speculations, just hope. But that "hope" (besides that RM 1 dividend)is based on some facts (not faith), and possibilities, I believe.
To me I dont dream or believe in speculation, I strictly believe in fundamental of the company and Kfima have its own fundamental.Price go up and down,up also happy and down also happy,no stress kcchongnz.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
JimYeoh
1,514 posts
Posted by JimYeoh > 2013-01-04 10:58 | Report Abuse
Moving upward now..