This is really not investing. It's more like gambling on one stock and hoping that the news are true. For goodness sake, Hubline has been at this price like forever....unless u're playing at 0.05 or 0.055 and selling it at 0.06....anyway, if ur news are accurate and it's going to happen within 2014, I'm sure the fund managers can wait. something doesn't sound right here....let's be rational and not overly optimistic
Hubline is the turnaround story after a series of painful cuts and impairments after 2008 global financial crisis. In FY ended 30 Sept 13, it has written off close to RM 200mil resulting an after tax loss of RM 190 mil. Its current NTA is around RM 14 cent.
If you believe that the world economy is prospering and global trade is on the upswing again in 2014, then it will be a good omen for shipping company like Hubline, at least there is hope of recovery. Its CEO has proclaimed that there will not be anymore scrapping of vessels after FY13 and all inefficient ships already out of the way. The costly write-off will not repeat in FY 2014.
Its core shipping businesses comprised on dry bulk and container shipping. The average ageing of its fleet is around 10 years, 28 of its current 30 vessels are wholly-owned. Two are rented from third party. Half of its fleet is used for dry bulk and the rest for container shipping. All its current profit is from dry bulk and all dry bulk vessels are fully utilised. It may need to buy 2 dry bulk ships with the next 12 months. Another round of borrowings is required. Its dry bulk operations deliver a gross profit margin of about 20%. In contrast, the container shipping side is just breaking even.
The strategy is deliberate – while all of its dry bulk vessels are fully-owned, Hubline will stick to chartering additional container ships so that it isn’t tied down in case the market takes a dive.
In order to improve its top-line growth and start making profit again, it intends to restart its Oil & Gas support division. Though it has ready operational and technical teams but need to borrow for capex investment - a mid-size AHTS will cost RM 60mil each. The current charter rate is improving and such venture should be bankable. There will be a surge in demand for Oil & Gas support services due to Petronas’ five years RM 300bil investment in Crude production. Hubline is looking for potential JV partners in this business.
As of 30 Sept 2013, its gearing level is 55% (RM 93 mil short-term loans and RM 154 mil long-term loans). Chance of gearing shooting up to 100% is high.
Given Hubline’s aggressive write-offs this year, industry watchers say the firm will close FY13 in the red but see it returning to profitability in FY14. If we take its last quarter result in FY ended 30/09/13, its PATAMI is RM 2.5 mil. If we assumed this continue into FY 2014 without the expansion plan, the best guesstimate will be RM 10 mil profit for the year.
Another risk factor is its operating cash flow not able to support its repayment of bank loan falling due. Either the loans need to be restructure or another round of corporate exercise to raise fund is required.
To cut the story short, investing in Hubline is a high risk venture with potential upside. With inflation raring its ugly head in year 2014 and imminent hike in interest rate, borrow more to expand will put further pressure on its profitability and cash flow.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
George99
259 posts
Posted by George99 > 2014-01-16 07:48 | Report Abuse
Interesting chat now in hubline. Pro and con. I accept both view
Just depend how you evaluate the view of both. Thanks both and all for their info....