@MoneyMakers People goreng based on case numbers but its testing numbers thats important Coming QR will see lower profit, lower ASP, lower volume..all down 15/07/2021 10:14 AM!
MoneyMakers whatever you say Glove counters and Pharma are industries making money for the rest of this year and years after just too far to consider Look at other sectors just SeeKialKial !
THe US is SuperMax s biggest market Without FF and local funds , can we really expect any meaningful rebound ??? Having said that , lets all give the shorties a good run for their money .
MM, Supermax is the biggest glove supplier to US now , taken over part of TG market share in US due to the CBP ban. Supermax as an OBM biz have enough profit margin to buy from other overseas OEM manufacturers to cover for any shortfall due to the EMCO shutdown in Selangor factories. So US glove supply probably not affected by our shutdown.
Aunty GF, don't bore us with your outdated comments la. Come up with something more current and critical if you want to stay relevant as a naysayer here.
Ok all Supermax supporters and bag holders, according to Aunty GF(reading between the line), shortists are currently buying back to cover short positions at this low price. So pls hold tight tight and don't allow them to buy cheap cheap to cover their back side.
Singapore and UK are leading the way. These two countries are always the ahead of other countries. We are living with Covid!! That means demand will only grow moving forward. Yes, ASP will drop but demand will grow! Imagine, will you let your children goto school without masks? You go to clinic and get jab and the nurse wear no gloves? New norm, new way of life. Masks and gloves are now necessities if you dont want to get Covid!
Buy low, sell high! Time to grab before big funds coming in again!
UK covid death rate increased by42,2 % last 7 days compared to the previous 7 but it does look like their vaccination program is effecctive give that the daily average is over 20k . In Malaysia the death rate is going into the hundreds , likewise Indonesia , but we dont really want to compare ourselves to Indonesia. Sadly the Indon govt may well be better than the present bunch so-called Government in Malaysia
Mmmmm Big funds wont be coming back any time soon. They hate political uncertainty , just hope local funds but local banks are still advising to stay away due to risk-reward issues
Big funds will comeback when they sense that the glove supernormal profit will continue much longer and many other "recovery" biz will not do so well bcos the worst of pandemic is still in front. Later when Supermax clinch the OGM deals and US expansion is confirmed to take off, then it will take the lead amongst the Big4. Imagine next year production capacity will double.
But meanwhile still need to take precaution and don't chase high, don't contra play, only long term players should nibble while the rest should just hold tight tight.
We have been hearing a lot about supermx dual income streams which are manufacturing incomes and distribution incomes . We are more familiar with manufacturing incomes because the rest of the glove makers derive their incomes from manufacturing only.
I would like to do a reverse calculation so that we can estimate what is supermx Distribution ASP , Distribution Revenues , Distribution Profits and Distribution Margin for last qtr .
Supermx last Qtr Revenue was 1.938 billion, Profit was 1.080 billion , PAT margin was 55.7 % while its average ASP was US 87.15 ( Jan 84.6 , Feb 87.65 and March 89.2 ) . Total shipment last qtr was 1938/87.15/4.1 = 5.42 billion pcs . Total shipment to supermx own distributor = 5.42 x0.58 = 3.14 billions
Supermx stated that the ratio of last qtr mfg vs distribution profits was 65 : 35 .
That means manufacturing profit was 1080 million x 0.65 =RM 702 million Since 58 % of gloves were sold to Supermx own Distribution Division and 42 % sold to Independent Distributors , the respective manufacturing profits were RM 407 million and 296 millions respectively.
The revenue for supermx manufacturing was 702 / 0.45 = 1.560 billions assuming mfg profit margin was 45 % ( Harta was 48 % while Kossan was 47 %) .
The mfg blended ASP was 1.560/5.42 /4.1 = US 70.2 per 1000 pcs
Note: Supermx Nitrile vs Latexx Ratio was 76 % : 24 %.
Hence the mfg revenue selling to Independent Distributors was 1560 x 0.42 = 655 millions .
Hence , The revenue for Supermx distribution Division was 1938 -655 millions = 1283 millions .
Distribution ASP = 1283/ 4.1/3.14 = US 99.7 per 1000
The Distribution profit last qtr was 1080x 0.35 = 378 millions
Hence the profit margin for distribution division was 378/1283 = 29.5 %
Total profits for Supermx gloves which sold through Supermx own Distribution Division was RM 407+378 millions = RM 785 millions
Hence nett margin for the 58 % sold direct to customers = 785/1283= 61.2 %.
THe nett nett profit margin = (61.2 x 0.58) + ( 45 x 0.42 ) = 55%
Summary
1. Supermx mfg blended ASP was US 70.2 per 1000 2. Supermx Distribution ASP was US 99.7 per 1000 3. Supermx Distributoion marked up was 99.7/70.2 =1.42 or 42 % marked up 4. Supermx Mfg profit margin was 45 % 5. Supermx Distribution margin was 29.5 % 6. Supermx overall profit margin was 55 %
Disclaimer : THe above calculation is not a buy or sell call . It is not for naysayers but strictly for supermx serious investors . I welcome civilised comments .
But meanwhile still need to take precaution and don't chase high, don't contra play, only long term players should nibble while the rest should just hold tight tight.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
MoneyMakers
7,656 posts
Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-07-15 10:11 |
Post removed.Why?