The drop in oil prices like this is a major blow to the process equipment industry, not just KNM. Insiders all know what happens next. Immediately, exploration projects go on hold or are rescheduled years in the future. process equipment projects go on hold. Financing of these projects comes to a stop as lenders wonder how they will be paid. KNM is in the service industry for Oil N Gas. When Oil N Gas runs low on money, they stop or reduce services just like everybody else In a few weeks, without recovery of crude oil prices, retail prices will drop. in turn, ethanol prices will drop further making it unprofitable to process cassava into ethanol. Yet more loss-making prospects for a company that can hardly make a profit in the first place. I see no future here anymore. Renewable Energy is not a safe bet for money which is why it has hardly taken off all these years. Use common sense, not stories people talk in this forum. Do you think oil will go back up with OPEC unable to agree on anything? I don't think so. Dog eat Dog market for the near future. Russians and Saudi's need money badly. they will race to produce as much as they can sell.
In fight with Russia, there is no joke that the 30usd/barrel will hit bottom below 20usd/barrel. Many oil producers country will suffer but not with Saudi. You know why? Because they can produce oil in lower cost which is about 9usd/barrel whereby Russia is producing oil at 17usd/barrel. This all add up with corona virus which slow down the demand of oil especially from China. Still think of holding shares? Buy back? Average down?
@sardin81, advising people to buy this stock because of LSE and his management team are buying is not good advice. people invest money in performance and market conditions. Clearly the latest turn of events is a massive blow to KNM Group including all of the subunits of the company. People buy stock in companies that can perform, this company has a long track record of loosing and with the oil companies losing 30% of the revenues they planned on having, it is clear that KNM is going to lose big now and in the future. They don't even have any large projects they are working on these days and legally disputed with big firms like Lukoil. how is it you think these guys have even a glimmer of a chance of surviving this clear global depression we are entering? Now is a time to be conservative. hold on to safe positions and get rid of risky positions. think ahead at the results of these changes and have a vision for the outcome. Take the risk money and put it where growth will occur. The global sell-off is just that, people moving money to safe places while we see what happens. KNM is not a safe place.
We are looking at a short term (a few months) of volatility in the global markets. They will stabilize again at some point and we can reevaluate. Malaysia will follow whatever is happening in the big markets and suffer with them. Malaysia is an oil-producing country that just lost 30% of its revenues, this will cause suffering in all sectors. it is just a fact. It is not just about KNM and its history not performing or the massive debt load they carry. It is not about IDSS or future projections, none of that matters. it is about historical performance and current market conditions along with the actual financial position of the company. We got out of KNM above .25 and will look to get back in if they make it through this period and drop below .07. it will get ugly. @sardin81, Ethanol prices are about 85% of the price of equivalent energy which is based on gas oil prices. So expect Ethanol to crash along with Gas Oil prices as the new costs drives downstream in the wholesale market. They sell in the Thai market which is very sensitive to gas oil prices and consumer costs. So Ethanol and Gas oil will respond the same, crash 30%
@sardin81 I think you answered your own question. We like opportunity buys, KNM is an opportunity to buy at times. We all hope for a good return. We all use most of the same indicators as well. they all tell a story. move to safe investments. Ethanol, not safe, Oil n Gas Service industry, not safe. Energy Service companies, not safe. They likely will continue down on the path they are on now. This is more than just KNM or others in this sector. There are no units of KNM that are bulletproof against oil prices. This is about OPEC that can no longer control US oil prices. The US is a net exporter of oil now and the Russians and Saudi can no longer hold back production. they need cash and they have low-cost production they can use to get it. Things, as we know it, are going to change in the energy business. it has been a long time coming and trump is going to push it faster every day as it benefits the US and the USD.
Thanks sardin81 for sharing all the valuable info. I believe in FA and future trends. KNM fits into both criteria. The market sentiment and covid19 has created very good entry points for most of the shares. I personally think that KNM is very much undervalue now. Will start entering and load even more if it's < 10c.
@ Sardin81, Borsig is not a steel producer. They pay the same price as everyone else mostly sourcing from China and Korea. Two places struck by CONV19 that will cause a significant increase in cost for both raw materials and transportation.
Cash Cow? I don't think you have looked at the financial statement. Most of the cash is in Germany controlled by the debt facilities and not available for General KNM Use. The Profit and Loss statement does not say cash cow at all, it say barely surviving when the markets are good 6 months ago. What will it say in 6 months when it shows what has happened today? Don't mislead people to think that because Borsig has Euros (changed to RM) in the bank to pay its loans that it is free capital available to LSE to use in the KNM Group. It looks to me like KNM is behind on supplier payments, and they have less than a month running costs available in cash. but that is just what the financials seem to indicate. Maybe you have other info we are not privy to?
Simple, if oil prices drop as they have, they have 30% fewer revenues. Common sense. with a drop in revenues of 30%, it is 30% less money that won't be spent in the supply chain which is the service industry. That means less business and revenues. It also means reduced production in high costs resources. For the oil n gas industry, this may well be 2008 all over again. Management buying stock and KNM buybacks to prop up the market prices for a short period of time is not sustainable and drains the company of needed cash and resources. It is a short term fix for the price and long term damage to the company and its future resources needed for survival. they are best served by paying down debts than buying a stock that is dropping fast.. What part don't you understand?
@sardin81 the Peterborough WTE plant is a KNM internal project, you should do your Due Diligence on this project. The could not finance it for many years. Finally, China Western Power Industrial Co Ltd (CWPI) agreed to build it for them and self-finance the project for KNM. It was a surprising accomplishment given the financial conditions of KNM. the repayment requirements are what is important here. I quote LSE: "The funding by CWPI will [be] payable by KNM in five years under a deferred payment scheme," said Lee. "Phase 1 will be completed in three years, giving us two years of operations beforehand," he added." That means KNM Group will have only 2 years to pay the loan of 1.9 billion ringgit plus interest and cost overruns from a new plant operating for at most 2 years using a KNM inexperienced team to manage it. Just like Empress Ethanol which was in the big scheme of things a disaster that was awarded in 2010 with a completion date of July 2011. Instead of an 18-month turn-key project, it turned into an 8-year disaster that only began limited production recently. What project has KNM done on time or correctly? What makes you think that this one will be different? What I see is China Western Power Industrial Co Ltd (CWPI) owns the project by default at the end of the 5 years. So I don't see this as any help to the future of KNM. It is definitely not a future cash cow.
Sardin don't waste time with people trying to sound smart.If they were really smart they would be spending time on forums of money making stocks!!Instead they are here commenting on KNM which they say has no hope.What kind of people spend time on something they have no hope on!??So are these guys actually IDSS players trying to spook investors into selling or just idiots trying to sound smart!??
A lot of fluff and potential this and that that never ends from the same people. Why I am back on here yet again? Eventually, the price will again fall below the value I would receive should KNM go PN-17 or into liquidation. When it does like most intelligent investors, we buy. If it goes PN-17, we make money, if it goes up above that we make money. Isn't that what you are doing?
The truth is that this forum has so much false propiganda so obviously not supported by the facts in public record that it is a joke. people should look up the data themselves and not listen to anybody here pumping or dumping the stock to satisfy personal interest.
Sardine81, KNM’s quarterly financial statements show the facts. The company made RM14.6M+6.5M+7.2M+9.1M = 37.4M on revenues of about 1.65B showing they make about 2% margins in good times. In 2018 they lost RM785M over revenues of 1.43B. Just how do you do that? It means they took in 1.43B and spent 2.2B to do the work. That is a negative margin of (55%). That is for the entire year average over all the booked works combined. How do you expect KNM to pay RM1.9B to China Western Power Industrial Co Ltd (CWPI) in two years with only RM37.4M in recent annual profits? Do you think they are strong enough to borrow RM1.9B more? Did you notice the Contingent liability in the financial statement that is not included in these numbers? That is RM600M plus that can hit the cash flows at any time. Where will they get that cash? Borrow more? It won’t come from 37.4M a year in profits. Please tell us all how KNM is a safe place to bet based on the propaganda you are pumping? I recommend that everyone look this up yourself on the public filings and be educated before you move into any risky investments. You must be educated of the facts and not the propaganda.
@Sardin81, when you quote me, use the entire discussion so you wont take it out of context for people. 30% is the revenue loss to the oil n gas revenues of the industry. not of KNM. I suspect it will be much more than that when this revenue loss moves down stream to process equipment and energy revenues of KNM. I never predicted what loss to KNM's future revenues are because I dont know. only the future will tell. So dont keep making fake news and fake quotes. people can readon this forum and see for themselves.
The market cap today is just under 400M. that is about 11X its profits(37.4M). the value of its assets are very sketchy and not clearly defined and I think very hard to liquidate compared to most companies. maybe 15% Asset liquidation value? The debts are exact along with the costs of debts in the balance sheet. but the aged assets are someones educated guess work. Who's I dont know. very hard to say. I will wait for the market cap to get to about 200M or about 6X before I consider it a buy again for us. Lets see what the contigent liabilities and notes say when they release the next annual report. how much more borrowings? All these lenders are in front of the line ahead of equity. Is there actually enough assets left over after a sale of the compay assets to pay first lenders, then creditors plus administrative expenses? If so, how much will be left to distribute to shareholders. That is how we need to look at companies like this one. The real numbers, the real data. not future plan and ideas. Why @Sardin81 are you pumping this stock when it is dropping like a rock and the industry is making a major correction that clearly affects KNM and its current business model? Let people figure out things by themselves from the public data available. not false propiganda.
Sardin81, if you somehow believe that KNM will not suffer from the 30% drop in oil prices, then more power to you. but don't expect other educated people to believe you. I think the facts are clear on this issue. buy up all you want. I wish you the best of returns. For the rest of you, check the historical data in 2008 and compare it to KNM stock prices. in fact, don't look at KNM, look at other successful companies like KNM that make profits consistently in the Oil n Gas service sector and see what happened and what is happening. But buy when your numbers tell you to buy based on the real data, not projections that are self-serving by those who make them to influence you or twist data to lead you to believe otherwise. Companies that are over-leveraged in debts rarely ever change. they service the debt until they cant.
SARDIN81 when price above 0.40 you said keep for long term because RM3 when price above 0.35 you said keep for long term because more contract when price above 0.30 you said keep for long term because WTE to start when price above 0.25 you said keep for long term because BORSIG when price above 0.20 you said keep for long term because ETHANOL need more demand to fight against coronavirus
Now 0.14 you also said keep for long term because it is cheap
Every level also you commented the same thing just like driving without having the break system, i think you better drive toyota corolla bring along coronavirus to holland.
What if KNM drops below 0.10, you will also say keep for long term.
sardin81 MacDee34 why are you so worried that if KNM won't drop today? why every day you must see KNM drop ? is it you also take a position in short selling?
I am not worried at all, never said or indicated anything you just stated above. Why are you such an angry person about this stock? I am watching to buy as I stated earlier? Don't make up false propaganda about my words or intentions. people can read clearly my words without your twisting and false misrepresentations. Although if I was trading in KNM at this point it would be a short sale, I don't think there is any chance it will go up even with the claimed management and major shareholder buyback ongoing. they will run out of money soon and it will drop more. We feel this is not a safe stock to buy until it drops below its liquidation value to shareholders.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
maxprofit2020
1,161 posts
Posted by maxprofit2020 > 2020-03-09 18:36 | Report Abuse
Previously it was below 0.1 from Dec 10th, 2018 to Feb 11th, 2019, totally 2 months. Plenty of time to buy low.