Alpha Trader, i don't seem to see any background about this company, do you think can explain a little about this company, i probably already miss the boat, thank you.
Next year genting will launch its theme park, there will be a sky way (400k sqft) for people to operate (opening up fnb chains and retail shop lots), OWG's business currently has 30k sqf in genting, if they can get 10% of 400k sqft, that will double their revenue
To have a grasp, current revenue from genting is 80% of the total group, so expect everything to double next year, and PE to rerate - a proxy to genting (fnb), equivalent to starbucks, bjfood is trading at 23-24x P/E, OWG can surely match at 20x
Besides this, Komtar top 6 floors are revamping up to have a sky view and some fnb shops lots, this will be the main attraction in penang for end of this year and next year, conservatively projecting 1 million visitors annualy, that would be equivalent to RM20m revenue if ASP is about RM20, then people will dine there too, havent included
so expect rev and pat to double next year minimum, and also PE to go up, so you get both side revaluation
Alpha Trader said "Hold guys, RM3 end of the year for sure." Alpha Trader also said "Just continue to hold, this stock is worth RM4 next year." So accumulate on weakness.
What I can say owg catch the luxury Tourism yacht. Genting , Penang n putrajaya. Attraction place. where b4 owg more on FnB n family day type water park/fun fare/believe it or not. They themselves underestimate or not sure main icon tourism place . Of cos IPO base on past business . If above all successful then RM 3 not a dream. Somehow in the pipeline .
sorry master shifu AT, may i ask ur opinion, to keep ifca or to buy OWG, which one better? example i sell 48 lots ifca-wa to buy 30 lots OWG, how u think? thank you.
CIMB raise owg tp to 3.02!Exciting 2016 when Sky Avenue is launched and the theme park is ready. The newly-refurbished Komtar will also be ready by end-2015. EPS growth of 46-47% in FY16-17 is very attravtive.Grap the opportunity to buy now before too late, this stock is worth RM4 next year and at least RM2.80 before end of this month, mark my words.
CIMB research already ungrade the tp and send to clients today.i3 not yet publish, i think 2mr early in the morning can jump in to get the share before the news go to public
It is true that CIMB clients have the new target price for OWG from RM2.62 to RM3.02. It is circulated internally. After a few days it will appear in the i3 forum. Today's volume 3.544 million is very big with only 1 sen rise (but RM2.47 all time high formed) showing large accumulation by big traders. Anyway let the old target price of RM2.62 be achieved first before thinking of RM2.80 and RM3.02 (Komtar must be ready first end of this year as proof). Long term target of RM4.00++ will be achieved next year when the Genting new theme park is ready.
Alpha Trader: You can take a look at CIMB's report.
Catalysts:
Next year Genting will launch its new theme park, there will be a sky way (400k sqft) for people to operate (opening up f & b chains and retail shop lots), OWG's business currently has 30k sqf in Genting, if they can get 10% of 400k sqft, that will double their revenue.
To have a grasp, current revenue from Genting is 80% of the total group, so expect everything to double next year and PE to rerated - a proxy to Genting (f & b), equivalent to Starbucks, Bjfood is trading at 23-24 x P/E, OWG can surely match at 20x.
Besides this, Komtar top 6 floors are revamping up to have a sky view and some f & b shops lots, this will be the main attraction in Penang for end of this year and next year, conservatively projecting 1 million visitors annually, that would be equivalent to RM20m revenue if ASP is about RM20, then people will dine there too, haven't included.
So expect rev and PAT to double next year minimum, and also PE to go up, so you get both sides revaluation.
"ALPHA TRADER is very good in looking for new hidden gem." IFCAMSC price now no one could believe last year.
I love Penang In a recent group meeting that we organised between fund managers and OWG’s management, we learnt that Komtar would be a themed attractions-based destination. Its NLA has doubled and the space will be fully taken up by end-15. We raise our FY06/16-17 EPS forecasts by 12-18% to reflect higher rental revenue from the Komtar space and higher projected revenue from the observation deck on level 64. Our target price is raised to RM3.02, still based on 19x CY16 P/E (20% discount to the F&B sector target P/E). We maintain our Add rating. Further upside could come from 1) F&B revenue at Komtar, 2) ticket sales for the new attractions at Komtar, and 3) additional space in Genting. What Happened The focus of the meeting centred on updates at Komtar. We gathered that the original 60k sq ft of NLA at Komtar has doubled and the space will be fully taken up by end-15. The extra space will come from an additional floor (level 66) and new spaces on levels 3, 4, 5 and 6. Komtar will be modelled along a themed attractions-based concept; a popular Japanese manga park and prehistoric attractions will be built. Management is also bullish on the potential for the tourist observation deck on level 64, targeting 1m visitors within the first year. What We Think We are confident that the Komtar revitalisation project will be a success. As a tourist destination offering themed attractions, a high-rise observation deck and a sky bar/dining under a single roof, Komtar will be another captive market business in addition to Genting Highlands, we believe. Penang averages 5m-6m in tourist arrivals annually (local and foreign). With the help of the Penang state tourism board in promoting Komtar, we believe that management’s target of 1m visitors is conservative and achievable. We raise our observation deck visitor estimate from 600k to 1m at unchanged blended revenue of RM15/visitor, which is conservative as management expects to price the tickets at a higher rate. In the longer term, Penang’s LRT and cable car projects will further drive tourist traffic to Penang and, by extension, Komtar. What You Should Do Remain invested in the stock. Our forecasts remain conservative as we have not factored in profit contribution from 1) its own F&B outlets in Komtar (levels 5, 59 and 60), 2) higher blended ticket rates for level 64, 3) revenue from the themed attractions at Komtar, and 4) additional F&B revenue in Genting.
Highlights of the group meeting OWG was represented by chairman and group CEO Dato’ Richard Koh, executive director Datin Jean Koh and CFO Mr Chik Chan Chee. 1. The meeting centred on updates at Komtar. The original 60k sq ft of NLA at Komtar has doubled and the space will be fully taken up by end-15. The extra space will come from an additional floor (level 66) and new spaces on levels 3, 4, 5 and 6. The additional capex required is c.RM30m (bringing total capex to c.RM90m), which will be funded by borrowings. We assume an interest rate of 7% in our interest expense estimate. 2. OWG intends to operate most of the F&B outlets at Komtar, although the actual space to be allocated for its outlets has not been finalised. We estimate the total space for F&B (including levels 59 and 60) to be c.50,000 sq ft. In terms of development timeline, levels 59 and 60 will be ready by 7 June, in time for the Annual Penang Komtar Tower Run. Assuming OWG operates about 80% of this space (c.40,000 sq ft), every additional RM1 in pretax profit psf could add 1% to FY16 EPS and 1.2% to FY17 EPS. 3. Komtar will be modelled along a themed attractions-based concept; a popular Japanese manga park and prehistoric attractions will be built. There could be up to four attractions built at Komtar. Assuming OWG can attract 500k visitors per attraction per year, at a blended ticket rate of RM20 and a conservative 15% pretax margin, the themed attractions could add 11% to FY16 and 15% to FY17 EPS. This is a conservative estimate as Ripley’s Believe It or Not in Genting Highlands earned between 24% and 48% in pretax margins between FY12 and FY14. 4. Management is very bullish on the potential for the tourist observation deck on level 64, targeting 1m visitors within the first year. Management gave two reasons for its bullishness: a) the lack of tourist attractions in Penang. TripAdvisor lists only four main sites to visit in Penang – Kek Lok Si Temple, Botanical Gardens, Penang Hill and the Batu Ferringhi beach, and b) Penang Hill attracts 1.4m visitors a year, with lengthy queues and waiting times. As such, management believes that its 1m target is conservative. Our forecasts assume RM15 as the blended ticket rate, which is conservative as management expects to price the tickets at a higher rate. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that every RM1 increase in ticket rate above RM15 could add 0.7% to FY16 EPS and 1% to FY17 EPS. 5. In the longer term, Komtar visitation will also benefit from improved traffic links arising from the RM27bn Penang Transport Master Plan. The LRT project, a RM4.5bn 17.5km elevated stretch linking Komtar with the Penang International Airport, will see construction begin next year. A ‘Penang Sky Cab’ cable car system connecting Penang Sentral in Butterworth to the island is also expected to be completed in 2018. The 3km link is expected to take around 15 minutes to travel in each direction and will be able to cater to 1,000 passengers per hour per direction.
very strong la. I wished I had more..2.50 is for sure next month..Honestly I want it to dip a bit to 2.20 so I can collect more. But looks like cannot. Too strong zz
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hostan
87 posts
Posted by hostan > 2015-04-15 00:38 | Report Abuse
For those wish to hold for mid/long term,may buy this,i am sure the return will great.