• Bloomberg quoted Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) as saying that overseas palm shipments will probably drop to 28mil tonnes in 2025F from an estimated 30mil tonnes this year. Palm oil production may fall to 50mil tonnes in 2025F from 52 to 53mil tonnes in 2024E mainly due to slow replanting by smallholders. Farmers are not willing to cut trees as the incentive of Rph30mil per ha was not enough. The authorities have doubled the handout in September.
• Reuters reported that China's soybean imports from the US rose 70% in August from a year earlier as buyers took advantage of low prices. Shipments from the US have gained pace since April, although volume remains much smaller than Brazil. China imported 202,383 tonnes of the oilseed from the US in August compared with 119,105 tonnes a year earlier. China bought a record 12.1mil tonnes of soybeans in August amid concerns that trade tension with the US could intensify and hurt soybean trade if Donald Trump returns as President.
• According to Reuters also, a senior industry official said that India's palm oil production is likely to triple in six years as the area under oil palm plantations increases and as plantations become mature for harvesting. An official with Godrej Agrovet said that India's palm oil production is likely to jump to 1.2mil to 1.5mil tonnes by 2030F/2031F from 400,000 tonnes currently. Areas under oil palm cultivation increased to 375,000ha last year and an additional 80,000 to 100,000ha are likely to be added this year.
• Oils and Fats International cited a RSPO official as saying that the EUDR (EU Deforestation Regulation), which is due to take effect on 30 December 2024 cannot be postponed as it is already a law and in force. The official said that to break up the regulation, there will have to be negotiations with all 27 member states. If companies were not compliant, they faced significant fines i.e. 40% of their EU turnover, bans on non-compliant turnover, reputational damage and supply chain disruptions.
• Bloomberg reported that India is considering relaxing curbs on overseas sales of non-basmati rice, days after scrapping a floor price for exports of a premium grade, potentially boosting global supply of the grain. India has limited overseas sales for more than a year to contain domestic prices. Indian farmers are in a midst of sowing their main rice crop following good rainfall. Plantings are higher than a year earlier and the grain will be harvested in late-September.

Source: AmInvest Research - 30 Sep 2024