Intelligent Investing
LATITUD - Is it still cheap as of now?
This is not meant to be a thorough analysis of Latitude but merely looking at it from the currency fiasco point of view. Because i think this is the interest of many people who mainly invest Latitude because of ringgit devaluation against USD.
So please do not go about commenting how many trees they have planted. This is a post to help you THINK, not an opinion to tell you if it is cheap or expensive from a valuation point of view.
"Considered the appreciation of USD, as an net exporter, Latitude should benefit from this"
That is the main reason most people buy into Latitude. But the question is, how do you relate between USD appreciation to how much profit they will make? That is the hard part.
USD vs RM
The rally start around Sep 2014, when ringgit started to go from RM3.16 against USD all the way to RM4.2 now, so that is a jump of 32%.
Latitude share price
Latitude share price already started to rally around early 2014, well before USD jump. So to put it fairly, we will start from the price when the currency problem (opportunity) started. Around Aug-Sept 2014. Latitude share price sits at RM3.16 back then. So because of all the money they can make from USD appreciation, everyone start buying their shares. Now it is sitting at $6.80. How much gain is that? 115%
Profit before tax margin
Below is a look at how their profit before tax margin have changed before and after the ringgit fiasco. I put a breakline to make it easy to compare their margin. You can conclude that margin 'might have' improve slightly but basically it is the same. It is not conclusive to say margin has improved significantly after Jun 2014.
Sep 2013 - 11.7%
Dec 2013 - 14.1%
Mar 2014 - 10.0%
Jun 2014 - 7.0%
************************
Sep 2014 - 10.5%
Dec 2014 - 15.5%
Mar 2015 - 12.8%
Jun 2015 - 11.7%
What does this means?
Considered margin doesnt change much, it is safe to say every USD dollar rise will contribute extra ringgit to the profit of Latitude. I know this is a simple analysis. It is.
That means their profit will only go up by 32% based on how much USD has appreciated. Considered now that their price has a runup of 115%, are they considered relatively cheap now compare to before the currency fiasco? Or another way to ask, are they cheaper when USD still sits at RM3.15 before the 115% share price rally?
That is something for you to think about.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 24 of 24 comments
Really stupid to compare with Sep-13 and Sep-14 and Dec-13 and Dec-14 as it is no much changes in both quarter. Misleading misleading misleading people
2015-10-23 13:25
Keep in mind currency rate only increase more than 10% started 2015. You argument really invalid without using the data.
Just like wan to bantah then bantah only.
Keep in mind your analysis only purely base on financial ratio without using what is the company doing, what is the external environment, what is currency situation, what is the competitor.
Should i say you purely a bookworm?
2015-10-23 13:28
Do you read the annual report before you comment?
Or you just read the figure only?
Other matters not important?
Do you follow the current trend?
Do you know last time all furniture share only trading at around PE5? (other than homeriz)
Do you know how many percent the company holding in USD dollar?
Or you saw pingdan writing a article then try to find a way to shoot him?
Still wan to say logic with me. Please do more research before comment. DO SHOOT BECAUSE YOU WAN TO SHOOT THAT PEOPLE
2015-10-23 13:36
I am dreaming one day I wake up to realize usd is 3.2 again
It was a wonderful morning
2015-10-23 13:42
erm in case u didnt read properly, this post talks about currency only, nothing else
And im not sure why you are using EPS to compare with currency. EPS can go up or down depends on how many logs they export, nothing to do with currency.
2015-10-23 13:56
Other than calculating financial ratio, what you know? Their business? Their client?
Why i talking about EPS? OMG EPS is the most important thing in determining the share price whether is cheap or expensive.
Other financial ratio and balance sheet will only determine whether the company should priced at higher price earning ratio or not.
Really dun wan argue with you le. "See you title. I answering to your title, that why i talking about EPS"
2015-10-23 14:10
Cannot blame my dream
It is part of me
And string attached like a blood related brother
2015-10-23 15:00
Latitude turn is very near
You do not need to wait 1-2 years
It will be rewarded next month
Kpscb?
May be you need to wait 5-10 years
By the time you are old to wait
2015-10-23 15:08
Some people can wait
But we are Yolo
They can wait and doesn't mean we need to follow to wait them
2015-10-23 15:09
That is corrected they wait too long
And their rusty brain couldn't catch up with the new technology
2015-10-23 15:11
You can wait doesn't mean your kids can wait
They need to eat
They need to make 25% per annum like kertas
Because commitment is high
2015-10-23 15:13
3 billions fund isn't make any life better
Still couldn't afford to pay by a cash a brand new sport car like lambo
2015-10-23 15:14
oh yes please reread my title. My title says - is Latitude cheaper now comparatively to before USD appreciation. If you kindly reread it again and again, you will know it has nothing to do with valuation, merely a comparison against currency level. And if you can reread again, this article is for you to think, i never say anything about Latitude being expensive, so not sure why you are so piss off duh.
2015-10-23 17:19
Twisted again. See your paragraph. The margin has not improved after jun 2014.
Surela. June 2014 ringgit havent depreciate ao much. How to improve alot?
2015-10-23 17:49
No appreciation in ringgit sure profit margin cannot improve la. Please compare mar 2014 and mar 2015 and june 2014 and june 2015. It have improved as the ringgit depreciated again us dollar.
Walao eh, ur info really misleading.
2015-10-23 17:53
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
pingdan
Another gg post.
See below:
Sep-13 USD1 = RM3.2595
Sep-14 USD1 = RM3.2805
Increase 0.64% in currency rate, profit margin drop, eps increased 14%
Dec-13 USD1 = RM3.2755
Dec-14 USD1 = RM3.4975
Increase 6.75% in currency rate, profit margin up, eps increased 44%
Mar-14 USD1 = RM3.2655
Mar-15 USD1 = RM3.7035
Increase 13.41% in currency rate, profit margin increase, eps increased 53%
Jun-14 USD1 = RM3.2111
Jun-15 USD1 = RM3.773
Increase 17.50% in currency rate, profit margin increase, eps increased 86%
Sep-14 USD1 = RM3.2805
Sep-15 USD1 = RM4.3955
Increase 33.98% in currency rate, profit margin increase, eps increase ??
2015-10-23 13:24