know your economic cycle; 了解你的经济周期(2008-2014)
know your economic cycle; 总结马来西亚的经济周期(2008-2014)
duitKWSPkita
Publish date: Mon, 05 Jan 2015, 03:35 PM
duitKWSPkita
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经济周期分为四阶段：复苏,繁荣,衰退,萧条
Business cycle consists of four phases: Recovery, Expansion, Downturn, Recession
在市场经济条件下，投资家们越来越多地关心经济形势，也就是 “经济大气候”的变化。一个企业生产经营状况的好坏，既受其内部条件的影响，又受其外部宏观经济环境和市场环境的影响。一个企业，无力决定它的外部环境，但可以通过内部条件的改善，来积极适应外部环境的变化，充分利用外部环境，并在一定范围内，改变自己的小环境，以增强自身活力，扩大市场占有率。
因此，作为投资家必须对经济周期波动了解、把握，并能制订相应的对策来适应周期的波动，否则将在波动中丧失生机。
Business cycle consists of four phases: Recovery, Expansion, Downturn, Recession
在市场经济条件下，投资家们越来越多地关心经济形势，也就是 “经济大气候”的变化。一个企业生产经营状况的好坏，既受其内部条件的影响，又受其外部宏观经济环境和市场环境的影响。一个企业，无力决定它的外部环境，但可以通过内部条件的改善，来积极适应外部环境的变化，充分利用外部环境，并在一定范围内，改变自己的小环境，以增强自身活力，扩大市场占有率。
因此，作为投资家必须对经济周期波动了解、把握，并能制订相应的对策来适应周期的波动，否则将在波动中丧失生机。
今天一月五日，马来西亚经济正经历着“衰退”期。接下来便是萧条期，然后就是经济复苏黄金投资时段。
我将会把马来西亚从2008经济萧条过后一直到2014年作一个经济周期终结好让股市投资新人有个更完善的理解。“复苏期”是投资股票最好的时机，随便买，随便升，接着就会看到股民冲出来自认是股神。股神也好股圣也罢总之就谁买谁赚钱，我想你也不要错过赚大钱的机会吧。 这一回，我将会把不一样的领域和不一样的经济周期一一为你解剖。因为我们不只是要在“复苏期”里赚反而是要一直赚！
先介绍经济周期的循环论：
2009-------------？？？？--------2014/11--------？？？？--------2015/9---------？？？？--------？？？？--------？？？？？
复苏期〉〉〉〉过热期〉〉〉〉衰退期〉〉〉〉萧条期-------复苏期〉〉〉〉过热期〉〉〉〉衰退期〉〉〉〉萧条期
---------通膨上升--------经济成才疲弱---------通膨下降---------经济强劲------通膨上------经济成才疲弱-------通膨下降----------
我的终结大纲如下：
复苏期：股票为王；债卷次之
这是最容易赚快钱的时机，以投资各种股票为主。可以运用贬值的现金套现成股票交易，如何从高科技股低价收购。大宗商品在复苏期是最低迷。你可能发现你遗漏的领域是飞得最快的。
过热期：商品为王；股票次之
油气股，种植股和钢铁股等等的背后因素都是和大宗商品有关。如何避开以“投资”为首要业务的股(TA,KAF,KENANGA,HWANG etc)?顺便解释以马来西亚经济历史个案为何产业股大涨之后都是经济衰退的开始。
衰退期：现金为王；商品次之
顾名思义当然就是专攻净现金量高的公司。因为其他的国家处于不一样的经济周期这会造成经济的失衡，举例2014令吉走暖有助于出口的贸易公司。医药，生物科技，大量靠能源的运输业和国家基建等等都会从中受益。衰退期通常都见证了股票暴跌，这个时段是股票专家最爱的经济期因为“既来之，则安之”，能在经济衰退时脱颖而出的始终都会再冲。股市心理学说道：煮食物（选股）的时候，浮上来的都可以吃。
萧条期：债卷为王；现金/黄金次之
来到萧条期是最无奈的垃圾时间，但作为一位优越的投资家一定能热血奔腾的赚下去。无可否认，投资债卷是最好选择但是别忽略了这是可以大量买进“底价”的金融股。还可以准备进攻各类的消费产品股项。
大马股票交易所的股项分类为政府基建，私人基建，医疗股，砍伐木材，上游种植，综合种植，上游油气，综合油气，GST税务，消费产品，汽车相关制造，建筑股，产业股，金融股，能源类型股项，钢铁股，工艺科技股，工业产品，采矿等。我尽能力一一解剖。认识了过往的周期交易形式之后，您就能对下一个循环驾轻就熟。
我的总结是：了解历史才有能力把握未来！
由于整个终结篇比较长，分析图片也放不进去。如果你有兴趣阅读（2008-2014）马来西亚经济周期，可以给我您的电邮地址，我处理好了就寄给你们分享。
Discussions
18 people like this. Showing 50 of 774 comments
In search of windfall. Duit sir please kindly add my email cheekhengng@yahoo.com to your winning stock picks recipient lists.
2016-12-29 13:16
dear duit sifu, I have always benefited from your work. pls add me to your email list. yeetodays@yahoo.com.sg
many thanks
2017-02-15 11:09
it will only crash when Icap starts buying. If Icap sit on cash, mark my words, markets wont crash.
2017-02-15 13:51
Hi duit sift, appreciate if you can add me in your email list
fooml.torsco@gmail.com. Thank you.
2017-02-15 14:02
Hi Paddy a.k.a duit, just got back from an emergency situation, and you are leaving.... sob sob sob .... I wanted to ask you a few question.....
appreciate if you could include me in your email list- klciraider@gmail.com
take care and enjoy your break
2017-04-13 13:32
hi Duit...please add me in ur email list..........chon6679@yahoo.com.....
thanx
2017-04-13 18:48
Hi Duit, please add me in your email list. Williamtkb@hotmail.com thanks
2017-04-13 21:45
Hi Duit. Please add me to your email list. I'm at metarati@yahoo.com
Thank you. Bye.
2017-04-13 22:53
appreciate if you could include me in your email list. I am at papunaidu54@gmail.com
2017-04-14 00:11
Duit bro, thank you for the "follow economic cycle" advice. I received you loud and clear.
2017-04-15 22:39
Duit sifu, please include me in your mailing list too. dthtab@yahoo.co.uk
Thank you very much.
2017-04-17 12:32
I juz figure it out , what is this 23332 from ... Duit
Anyway, Duit must be happy for it, back from holiday ?
2017-04-17 16:57
Duit Sifu....please add me too into your mailing list. jiaren777@gmail.com
2017-04-17 17:41
Dear duit. can you please add me to your Hand out list, limjunie749@gmail.com
Thank you
2017-04-18 11:01
Duit sifu, please include me in your mailing list too. Jackylee901@hotmail.com
Thank you very much.
2017-04-18 14:15
dear duit, can you include me in your mailing list too : mansktan@gmail.com
TQVM
2017-04-24 22:36
Duit sifu, please include me in your mailing list too. chleong39@yahoo.com
Thank you very much.
2017-04-24 22:48
Morning Duit. Would very much appreciate if you can add me to your mailing list. My email i3pinkdevil@gmail.com
Thanks in advance
2017-04-29 10:47
由于整个终结篇比较长，分析图片也放不进去。如果你有兴趣阅读（2008-2014）马来西亚经济周期，可以给我您的电邮地址，我处理好了就寄给你们分享。 Mr.Duit Sifu my email dthtab@yahoo.co.uk tqvm for sharing.....
2017-05-01 17:12
Dear Duit Sifu, Please include me in your mailing list too. johnlow524@gmail.com. Thank you very much.
2017-05-01 17:45
Dear Duit Sifu, Please include me in your mailing list too. david_ymchew@yahoo.com Thank you very much.
2017-05-18 22:35
Dear Duit Situ, please include me in your mailing list too. jowynQ@hotmail.com. Thank you so much
2017-05-18 22:53
Dear Duit sifu, long timer lurker, can i please be included in your mailing list. manutdfan-nicky@hotmail.com.
Thank you!!!
2017-06-23 10:52
Follow Malaysia economic cycle.. Will soon enter property sector goring mode. You believe?
2018-12-06 13:56
Dudes,
we are in the peak of 2015-2021 cycle.... Earn as much as you can this year. Start from April 2021 we shall see major crash
2020-01-04 12:32
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angienhp@yahoo.com,Thanks duit.
2016-12-29 13:15